The Twins vs. Long Game Thinking

 

So by all accounts, the 2026 Minnesota Twins did not succeed. They surprised everybody by coasting in third for the majority of the year, had great performances and a nice array of strong players, DIDN'T SELL AT THE DEADLINE, and even bought, but...they're not a playoff team, and the road for them to get there was always gonna be relatively steep. The Iowa loss was the first crack in the armor, and they never recovered. So despite the buying, and the curation of a decent team, this isn't gonna lead to anything immediate.

Unless immediate success was not the point. They got some disposable pieces at the deadline but one of them, Dean Kremer, is not disposable and could stay with the team as a starting option going forward. Jeff Hoffman's also on a multi-year deal and is here til 2027. Joe Ryan and Josh Bell both have mutual options, and while Ryan will probably decline [unless he really feels they're on the precipice], Bell might stick around considering he can play DH everyday and seems to have gotten his power hitting groove back. Minter's leaving in free agency but maybe he comes back on a relatively cheap deal. The big pieces of this team are not leaving yet. Buxton, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Ober and Caratini are all sticking around. Maybe this team can still develop if enough of the core remains, and could compete sooner than later.

I'm not the only person realizing this. The Twins, in the last month, have called up a lot of really strong prospects that could play a huge role in the team as early as last year. Kaelen Culpepper is the highest-profile one, he's stepped in at SS and is hitting .286 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs in 29 games. Walker Jenkins just came up, and while he's not hitting all that well yet, he's 21 and capable of great things, so perhaps it takes more immediate MLB development. They just brought Emmanuel Rodriguez up yesterday and he responded with a towering homer immediately, so that's very good news. Plus both Mike Paredes and Mick Abel will be back next year in full force, and Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis will continue leveling up towards where they should be. 

That's the thing that the Twins realized before a lot of people this year: they're way closer than you might think. Going into this year, they were very much a 'what do they have left' team. They gave away a lot of big pieces, sold high last deadline and didn't seem committed to competing, but the young core was just building, and arguably did a ton more to inherit the team than the Tigers' and Royals' this summer. Maybe they vie for the division lead next year, and try and take down Cleveland in a waning period. It's sort of within reach.

If there is Spring Training next year, I might go and catch some games. My uncle lives near where the Twins play, and I always enjoy checking out the facility. I am wondering what the feel is gonna be. If there will be optimism, or if it'll be a stab in the dark like this year. That's a fascinating thought for 2027.

Coming Tonight: He was leading in the Rookie of the Year conversations. Then he got hurt. He's come back in time to try to help his team make one last, possibly futile, postseason push.

Never Really Ober

 

Okay. So now that the Twins are 4 games back from the nearest wild card spot, and have been lapped by both the Orioles and Blue Jays...that means they can power down a little, right? It's wild to me that a team that's 6 games under .500 is still technically a playoff-chasing team. Then again a team that's at .500 has hold of the AL West right now, so it's all kind of a mess anyway. 

The single wildest part about the Twins' case to compete lasting this long is that their trade deadline acquisitions might be the most successful of anybody's. Dean Kremer's been excellent in four Minnesota starts, with a 3.18 ERA, 20 Ks and a 0.7 WAR. A.J. Minter has a 0.84 ERA in 10.2 innings. Jeff Hoffman has a 4.50 ERA, which compared to his Jays numbers is Bob Gibson stuff. They also brought up Kaelen Culpepper since the deadline, and in 16 games he's hitting .333 with 3 homers and 6 RBIs, already looking like a favorite to start at shortstop next Opening Day. But no matter you drape over this team, fundamentally they still have a long way to go, and only have so many good pieces. The hitters have a combined 13.5 WAR, and that's mainly because the starting lineup is a bunch of 1, 1 and a half WAR guys all doing perfectly alright. With the exception of Byron Buxton, this is a team of pedestrian players doing their best. Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach and Kody Clemens are doing everything they can, even if on any other team a lot of them would be a bench bat. Keaschall I do see a future with, but these days he's a pretty good bat with some defensive struggles. 

You also think about the fact that beyond Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer there's still rotation unrest. Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are two fundamentally strong pitchers that aren't having great seasons. Bailey Ober is perfectly fine right now, he's 7-4 with a 4.50 ERA. We've seen him do better. In a season where the Twins had a lick of a playoff chance, this was not the right #3 man performance. Maybe if Mick Abel, Pablo Lopez and Mike Paredes had stayed healthy we wouldn't be here, but that's not the hand the Twins were dealt. You can't really blame the ownership for screwing the pooch here, they actually tried, they didn't completely burn the team down in the offseason, an effort was made. It just didn't really work out, regardless of how close it got.

Even now you can still see some effort being put in, a decent Trevor Larnach season with 11 homers and 43 RBIs, Kody Clemens leading the AL in triples because Corbin Carroll isn't here, and Byron Buxton trying to make the most of yet-another injury-shortened year. There's even the entry of a new rookie star, outfield bat Walker Jenkins, a man born in 2005, meaning there's now people ten years younger than me in the major leagues, which is quite sobering. Jenkins was hitting .308 in St. Paul, got to emerge from the corn in Iowa a couple days before the other Twins did, and now gets to [supposedly] finish the season in the majors. Hopefully he's the next step to a year that doesn't end as strangely as this one for the Twins.

Coming Tonight: An all-star closer who's just now seeing the other shoe beginning to drop.

Caught in the Maize

 

The Minnesota Twins arrived in Iowa for the Field of Dreams game on Thursday night with enthusiasm and vigor, and the desire to play a great ballgame in a hallowed place, for the good of the game. That was the last bit of positivity the Twinsd experienced. They lost three games to the Phillies, a better team but one the Twins could have very easily spoiled, and now they're in fourth place, trailing the Tigers and Guardians and struggling to keep in the race. It certainly looks like the Phillies found themselves in Iowa, and the Twins lost the plot.

The big 'what are we even doing?' moment came during yesterday's game, which was going great for the Twins for a while due to the Phils starting Andrew Painter [due to lack of other options, and thanks again for that Dombrowski]. Brooks Lee hit a grandy, Kody Clemens [the former Phillie] hit a solo shot, it was 5-0 for five innings. Then in the sixth, Luis Arraez got a guy home and Alec Bohm, hot as hell recently, rocketed one out to make it 5-4. Which it remained. And it honestly could have stayed. 

In the eighth, Bohm was up again, with three men on, and hit one to shallow right. Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall congregated towards the ball, as it seemed to skirt the line between foul and fair. Lewis lets it bounce, it lands fair. He tries to grab the ball, it flies right out of his hands, and Keaschall doesn't have the reflexes to stop it from rolling off, so it bonks off his glove, as balls tend to be doing these days. Harper's able to get home on that, tying the game. Three batters later, Bryan de la Cruz smokes a ball through and 2 more runs score, and the Phils' bullpen ensure it doesn't get worse than that.

So...let's examine this. We have Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall collaborating on that play to shallow right. Keaschall is predominantly a second baseman, he's in right because they wanted to start Kody Clemens at second, they already had him in left and Ryan Kreidler at second. Royce Lewis is predominantly used as a third baseman, but Brooks Lee was at third. So you have two guys not playing their primary positions acting like the Keystone Kops out there and bombing the game. I'd understand it if the production was worth it to keep all these guys in the lineup, but Keaschall did nothing at the plate and Lewis got one hit. 

Lewis in general is having a pretty meh season honestly. The novelty of the longballs is done because Lewis stays healthy for longer and hits less homers. He's got 13 homers, 44 RBIs, 11 steals, he's fine. Better in the last month or so than he was before that, but he's not blowing the doors off the place, making him a somewhat limp 1st overall guy. He's still doing what he can, and when the production's on point it's not a problem, but some of his dimensions have been taken away and there's not much to him that other guys can't already bring. The good news is Kaelen Culpepper is up and auditioning for SS for 2027 [?], Keaschall seems to be a lock for the team going forward, Byron Buxton's still elite and the central core is likely sticking around for the most part to build on this going forward. There's the worry that Joe Ryan could leave in free agency, and the knowledge that Ryan Jeffers will, but unless they really start dealing people, which could happen to guys like Wallner and Larnach if they're not careful, I don't see them going full crumple and toss next year if enough of this team can really chase people.

Anyhow, shame about what happened to the Twins this weekend. It could have been avoided. Someday it might get to be avoided.

Coming Tonight: Similar to Lewis, he gets injured, misses a swath of the season and tries to make up for it. This year worked out similarly to the last few for him. 

Destination Very Much Known

 

Ryan Jeffers has a pretty sturdy week ahead of him. After this series against the A's he plays a few games against the Royals, and then he and the rest of the Twins head to Seattle, and then at some point during that series he'll be heading to New York to join the Yankees because he's going to be traded to the Yankees. Everyone knows Ryan Jeffers is about to be traded to the Yankees. The fact that they're waiting for the formality of the trade deadline is honestly just proof that the deadline season is kind of a farce at this point. If you want to make a move, make a move, don't wait til the wire.

So Ryan Jeffers having to be a Minnesota Twin this week when everyone knows that A.) the Yankees want him and B.) they have more to offer the Twins than anyone else looking for a primary catcher, which...who even is right now anyway [the Sox??]. But they're waiting til they can get the TV coverage for making the deal so they have to pad this out. We all know they're gonna offer the Twins some prospect cornucopia, probably some double-A pitchers, and the Twins are gonna ask for Spencer Jones, the Yankees are gonna say no, and the Twins are gonna go through with the deal anyway. Everyone knows how this goes. But we've gotta have Jeffers ride out the half, I guess.

Jeffers has been pretty good this year, and would likely be an upgrade over Austin Wells if dealt to the Yankees. He's hitting .283 with a .922 OPS, has 9 homers and 35 RBIs in 41 games, and has been one of the highlights of a better-than-expected Twins lineup. I don't think taking Jeffers out of this lineup will wound the team too much, Victor Caratini can start and Alex Jackson can be backup. Perhaps THE answer is on the way. And plus, as long as Josh Bell, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee stay in the lineup, they should be fine. I don't know if all of them will. The Twins could be shopping anything from just Jeffers to the whole team, including Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. But we won't know just how much they're willing to deal til far too late. They really shouldn't trade Buxton, but y'know...they don't know what they're doing. 

So, this week the farce will just continue. Jeffers will be somewhat helpful as the Twins do okay work skirting the middle of the division while the Royals and Tigers tank for prospects knowing full well they'll be competitive again next year. And then they'll deal him, and probably other people, and then settle around fourth and not be heard from again til I get to Fort Myers next March, where everyone will be about how the rebuild starts now and it's part of the plan.

I'm not a Twins fan, but if I was I'd be making sure I had something in my life that provided joy as well. 

Coming Tomorrow- Right when you thought the Pirates still weren't for real, like magic a new power hitter appeared to jam them back into the playoff race. 

Paperweight Beats Rock

 

The Minnesota Twins really just won a series against the Yankees in the Bronx. And honestly, somehow, they deserved to.

It's been no secret that since mid-June the Yankees have been spiraling out of control. In fact, I may have been in attendance for the last time the Yankees actually felt like a dominant winning team, their excellent shutout of the Reds. Immediately after that they've lost all direction. The team's stopped hitting, management keeps sending down players who are doing well because they've got options left, Gerrit Cole keeps giving up runs, and the absence of Judge is feeling more and more evident. Ben Rice initially looked like he'd fill that void, but since that Reds game where he had a 3-run shot, he's been hitting .135 with 7 hits, 3 home runs and 15 strikeouts. The whole team's gone cold, including him. So us losing another series? Why not at this rate.

But the Twins?? On paper you'd think they were directionless, but somehow they've become one of the sneakiest bad teams in baseball. They're not supposed to compete, but they're skirting through the middle of the AL Central, hanging around .500, winning big against great teams solely because they can. They are without Ryan Jeffers right now, and the fear is that they're about to lose Byron Buxton to a hip issue [because that man couldn't be any more cursed]. But barring that they've had a really surprising lineup, filled with guys like Luke Keaschall, Kody Clemens, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee and Trevor Larnach, who aren't burning the house down but are providing steady work. They've even got Josh Bell bringing his usual brand of cheesy power, with 13 homers and 59 RBIs, meaning there's an outside chance Bell nabs a 100 RBI year. I'm not sure if he'll finish it with the Twins, but considering he only has one to date, it'd be a pretty cool achievement. 

The Twins are not a better baseball team than the Yankees, but right now only one of these teams has any spark or unpredictability, and it's not the friggin Yankees. The Twins have guys that you're gonna underestimate and they make you pay anyway. Keaschall and Lee have been so hot recently that they're both on my fantasy team. Ryan Kreisler has 5 homers and 23 RBIs as a bench bat. Alex Jackson is somehow hitting .300 as a backup. They're getting quality starts from Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews and Mike Paredes, who are mostly around to fill in for Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel and Bailey Ober and eat innings. Matthews is looking the most MLB-ready yet, and despite a 4.43 ERA has a 1.164 WHIP. Yoendrys Gomez went from a roster hanger-onner to an MLB closer. There's genuine unpredictability to this team, and it's very much appreciated. The Yankees are what you see. Ryan Weathers and Will Warren are gonna get up there and strike you out but leave homer possibilities on the table, so of course you go for it. Jazz Chisholm's gonna make an error or strike out 3 times. Camilo Doval's gonna shit the bed. I'm not saying we're always gonna be this predictable, but we were this series, and the Twins took advantage.

The Twins have the Guardians and Angels up next before the break, and because of the jester's privilege they've received in the AL, no matter how these series' go it might not even matter. They may sell, but I don't even think they'll need to sell Buxton or Ryan. They may just gestate as a spoiler the whole rest of the year. Meanwhile, the Yankees need to get to a point where they're not being tripped up by someone like the Twins. 

Coming Tonight: A young infielder who seems to finally be getting some ample battery-mates.

Kody-Pendent

 

There's gonna be a lot of talk in 20 years about how the 2020s were defined by second generation players, not just Vlad Jr. and Tatis and Bo and the Hollidays either. You still have guys whose dads had a cup of coffee [or at most a couple donuts in October] in the bigs, like Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna Jr., and eventually Eli Willits. 

Ironically, I remember pulling a Reggie Willits card out of 2007 Update. Around when I was looking for that elusive Roger Clemens Yankees card. 

Anyway, the point I was making was that this decade's been inundated with second generation guys who have dictated the direction of the game, and that's really cool. Which is why I wonder how the second-generation guys who were mid-to-low tier will be remembered. There have been guys like Daz Cameron, Cavan Biggio, Nick Gordon and Darren Baker who've tried to find success on name brand recognition alone and haven't gotten as far. Or someone like Ryan Weathers or Hunter Harvey, both of whom have found success but have struggled to sustain it due to injuries. 

I'm actually really intrigued by how Kody Clemens will be remembered, as he might be one of the strangest second-generationers in the league right now. His dad, obviously, is Roger Clemens, pitching icon and mildly controversial MLB figure. Kody made the bigs as a utility infielder, and isn't a pitcher, though the Tigers and Phillies did used to throw him out there as a last-chance mound option and he honestly didn't do too badly. 

With the Twins, Kody Clemens has become essentially a replacement level standout, providing excellent support and good production without being a bankable long term option. Right now he's hitting .250 with 11 homers and 28 RBIs, he's actually above average as a first baseman, and he sort of does his job. On a team like the Twins, where so many long term options are utterly refusing to do their jobs, Kody Clemens being a useful, important piece says a lot. Like, honestly I feel like this is the kind of team Clemens was made for? With the Phils he was useful, but I don't think he was asked for as much as a bench bat as he is here as a starter. I'm not sure if he works as much on a good team, and I know that's weird to say. Especially compared to Byron Buxton, who would be a terrific outfielder and hitter on any team but prefers to stay in Minneapolis because he loves the fanbase and the team. Clemens I think wants bigger things, and will possibly even be traded, but he needs a team like the Twins about as much as they need him. And comparing that to Roger Clemens's presence on any team he was ever on is wild. Roger Clemens made teams; Kody Clemens' teams make Kody Clemens. It's not bad, it's just different.

Barring Clemens and Buxton, still not a hell of a lot going on with this Twins team. They are, however, in third, and ahead of the Tigers for the time being, so they've gotta be doing something right.

Coming Tomorrow- One complete game shutout later and he's not looking like such a bad investment I guess..

Any Which Way You Draft

 

So, to recap. The 2026 Minnesota Twins have, at the MLB level, currently:

-Byron Buxton, 2012 2nd overall pick.

-Alex Jackson, 2014 6th overall pick.

-Royce Lewis, 2017 1st overall pick.

-Trevor Larnach, 2018 1st round pick.

-Ryan Jeffers, 2018 2nd round pick.

-Matt Wallner, 2019 1st round pick.

-Austin Martin, 2020 5th overall pick.

-Mick Abel, 2020 1st round pick.

-Brooks Lee, 2022 8th overall pick.

-Connor Prielipp, 2022 2nd round pick.

-Luke Keaschall, 2023 2nd round pick.

All of these people were picked high for a reason, and the Twins themselves picked all but three of them. The goal was to draft, or accumulate, the kind of prospects to build a great team out of. Now...with all of these people on the active roster...how come nothing's getting done?

It blows my mind that people like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis could look so good out of college or high school, get to the MLB level and continue to blow opportunities. Wallner is the kind of athlete you could build in a lab, and they still can't get him to hit for average. Royce Lewis can hit home runs like crazy, but only for 2 weeks out of the year, in between injuries and slumps. Larnach's a decent power hitter but he's more okay than anything. I also think about Brooks Lee, who came up as this incredible shortstop prospect, one who got Carlos Correa traded to get himself more room there...and as of a week ago, starting Lee at short is no longer a viable option. So now he's a third baseman. Let's see, who's the nearest shortstop in that draft- oh, Zach Neto. He'd have been a good career shortstop. Or...would he have been if the Twins drafted him?

I give Lee shit for blowing the SS job but he's actually having a halfway decent season. He's hitting .252 with 8 homers and 35 RBIs, and is one of the best non-Buxton plate performers the Twins have right now. Keaschall's also beginning to heat up, and he's got 10 stolen bases already. If Jeffers had stayed healthy it'd have been a nice top of the order, and guys like Tristan Gray, Austin Martin and Ryan Kreider providing excellent bench work. Granted, not much depth beyond that though, but I think the Twins are at the point where they're just trying shit out and seeing if that works better than the original plan.

Case in point: the Twins just cut Simeon Woods-Richardson, after a dismal 0-7, 7.74 ERA start, and sent him back to his initial system in Toronto. The plan is to go with a four man rotation of Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp [which is actually a pretty decent combination considering Matthews and Prielipp's ceilings], plus an added bullpen slot as they debate whether to stretch out Mike Paredes all the way. At some point either Mick Abel or Bailey Ober will come back anyhow. And honestly...for a team that everyone was assuming would be a last place punchline, that's not bad at all. It makes me wish the team hit better.

The Twins do theoretically have enough to stay ahead of the Royals, but the Royals want out of last very badly, and won't be afraid to really go crazy to get to that point. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Cardinals have a very young rotation, and technically he's the ace. So he's beginning to act like one.

Enjoy Him While He's Here

 

The title of this does not imply that Byron Buxton would ever leave the Twins. He's said many times he wants to be a Twin for life, they want to keep him around, I can't see him playing anywhere else. The title refers to the fact that despite being one of the best pure hitters in Twins history, and a central figure of so many exciting Twins teams, Byron Buxton has never played a full 162 game season. The closest he's gotten is 140 in 2017, and 126 last year. Otherwise he rarely makes it past 100 games. He couldn't even play all 60 games of the 2020 season. There is always an injury or some scratch or something that prevents Buxton from impacting this team other than in 90 or so games.

The closest thing the Minnesota Twins to a guy who played their entire career in Minnesota and became a legend is Tony Oliva, Joe Mauer, or eventually someone like Kent Hrbek or Brad Radke. Puckett had a great career but it only lasted 12 years. Carew was terrific but left after a decade. Killebrew was a Washingtonian first. Santana left, Morneau left, Kaat and Blyleven left, etc etc. The Twins don't have an Ernie Banks or a Barry Larkin or a Cal Ripken, two decades of strong work. And what they have is good, but there's always a but. You get a top-tier hitter who excels at the game for 9 years, buuuut he gets hurt and retires in his early 30s. Or you get one of the best contact hitters of his era, but he decides he just doesn't want to play in Minneapolis after a while.

Byron Buxton has given grade-a, terrific performances...*when* he is healthy. He's only played 938 games in 12 years. He's hit 183 home runs, 459 RBIs, 812 hits. Half of his career is missing. I'm sure he'd have double those totals by now if he'd stayed healthy, and he may have even helped his team towards better postseason results, and more than that single measly postseason series win. But as is...the Twins just have an all-American hero who lifts the team whenever he is there, and is routinely extremely good. Buxton has a 31.4 WAR in that time, despite missing time, meaning when he is healthy, he's responsible for 4 or 5 wins on his own. This is the effect he has on the Twins, who've struggled the past few years.

Last season was our fullest picture in a while of Buck's full potential, and he hit 35 homers and 83 RBIs. At 32 years old, he's still got some peak energy left, and is trying to do everything he can to perform at this level before his body refuses to left him. So far this season, Buxton's post-30 upswing has continued, with 15 home runs, 23 RBIs and an .899 OPS. That is everything you want right there. Hitting great, still powerful, decent enough in the outfield, and still loved by everyone. The Twins are beginning to run out of pillars, as they've still got Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober but a lot of people have left. They just sent down Royce Lewis, which should tell you everything you need to know about what he's turned into. Keaschall and Lee have backslid, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are promising but not cemented yet. Buxton's really all they have that they know works right now, and even for a weaker Twins team, that's enough.

The Twins know they're not built like the Dodgers, so they're just trying to outdo everyone's expectations. And right now they're ahead of the Tigers in the standings, so mission accomplished there. Let's see what else they can do, and what else Buxton can help them out with.

Coming Tomorrow- I did not think he'd ever end up with a starting position on a competitive version of this team, but the guy sure can hit. 

Expressly Ryan

 

For the first 19 games of the season, you could describe the Twins as 'better than anyone thought they could be'. They were 11-8, having big games against tough pitchers like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, and getting production out of a noticeably slimmer lineup. Since then, however, the Twins have only won once, and that was against the Mets right before they ended their streak. 

So what was it that allowed the Twins to propel past the Tigers and Jays in early April before struggling against the Mets and Rays in late April? No one is quite sure. Some people have theorized there's some sort of Target Field advantage that allows the team to figure out great pitchers, either a tell or a full cheating thing. We may not know about that til they make it back home tomorrow against the Mariners. Yet that doesn't explain why the Reds came to Minneapolis and swept them cleanly, and that's a team that has Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, two easy-to-exploit starters. 

I think the main truth is that the Twins simply aren't great this year, and as things have evened out it's all been confirmed.

I root this argument back to Josh Bell. Josh Bell is a strange case, because he only seems to succeed when playing for bad teams. The second he's traded to a good team, like the 2022 Padres or the 2023 Marlins, his bat stops working. But when the pressure is off he springs into action. Last year, on a completely meaningless Nationals team, Bell became a viable power DH again, hitting 23 homers and 63 RBIs. The Twins took a gamble, and so far he's hitting .244 with 3 homers and 16 RBIs. Not immaculate, but decent production for a team without a ton of real success. It stands out more when the foundational guys, like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis, simply aren't producing many runs. Someone like Austin Martin, amazingly hitting .300 with only 6 RBIs, should not be so valuable to a team's success.

At the very least, the Twins, for the time being, still have Joe Ryan, who's a very good starting option. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.021 WHIP, a 3.90 ERA and 33 Ks. He's very much at the mercy of the run support on many occasions, but he's still the staff ace and he's still a great guy to have around. It's very promising, though, that this team also has Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Mick Abel and, if his first start is anything to go by, Connor Prielipp, to rest on if anything were to happen around, say, July. Bradley in particular is looking better than he ever has on a mound. Who knew there'd be someone that wouldn't succeed until AFTER they left Tampa. Besides Joe Ryan of course.

The Twins now at least still strive to outdo expectations, and I think, if April is anything to go by, they're still capable of big games. I just don't think it's the norm for this team. I don't really think they have it in them.

Coming Tomorrow- There's a lot of teams that don't have anybody left from 2022, let alone 2018, but this guy has been on the Cubs since before they crumpled-and-tossed. And now he's helping them compete again. Gotta feel amazing for the guy.

2026 in Getting Out of Tampa

 
The cycle continues. The Rays get something together, then realize they have to play their players, trade people away, and then once again the Rays get something together. Absolutely exhausting.

Right now the Rays have only 1 guy left from the 2020 A.L. Championship season, namely Yandy Diaz. Last season had 3, and two of them were actively either dealt or cut. Now it's down to one. Occasionally you hear talks of Junior Caminero getting a longterm extension, possibly Jonathan Aranda, but nothing permanent comes down. I'll give the Rays credit for signing more free agents than usual, as Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley wound up here in signings. But that's not distracting from the fact that any homegrown talent is there to attract trade promise and net them even more young, controllable players. This has been the MO since the Kevin Cash years, pure small ball without overextending. The few times they actually sign players, they gamble incorrectly, like with Wander Franco.

And then when people finally get out of Tampa, and get paid...then it's easier for them to have breakout seasons, or even just strong years in general. You're seeing that all around. Taj Bradley got dealt last year for Griffin Jax, and so far he's been one of the best players on a rough Twins roster, going 2-0 with 22 Ks in his first 3 starts. Every bit uncomfortable and unpolished Bradley felt in Tampa is gone, and he's more confident than ever in Minneapolis. Then you have Brandon Lowe, who had another great season last year, then got traded to the Pirates and has been extremely helpful for them this year, with 4 RBIs and 3 home runs in 11 games, in addition to some traditionally strong infield play. Lowe looked to be one of the Rays' last two veterans, and now he's playing for a team that actually seems to be going somewhere.

Sifting through each of the other rosters, it is very easy to find players the Rays gave up on to meet a budget quota. And while we're here...

Angels: Josh Lowe, a late offseason trade loss thanks to a strong desire for Gavin Lux. Lowe was a fairly regular producer for the Rays, and with the Angels he's been slower to start but still getting enough reps.

Astros: Isaac Paredes, one of the Rays' more baffling midseason trades, is the starting third baseman in Houston, and already has 4 doubles and 5 RBIs in a prime position in this lineup. 

A's: Jeffrey Springs, in case none of you are aware, nearly no-hit my team today. That happening now...just seems way too on the nose. The Rays got rid of him a year ago after they grew tired of waiting for him to come back to full power, and the A's actually gave him some money. Only a matter of time before his arm gives out again though. 

Brewers: Jake Bauers was last with the Rays back before any of these people whose departures have pissed me off were even with the team, really. He got sent to Cleveland in the deal that traded Yandy Diaz to Tampa. Since then his career has died and come back, and now he's a handy bench bat with Milwaukee. 

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore was a longtime Rays organizational staple before he was dealt for Jose Martinez [and also another guy named Arozarena]. He finally made it to the bigs, and is the closest thing the team has to an ace right now. 

Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, most notably.

Giants: One of the most egregious ones was Willy Adames, traded during a peak season solely to make room for Wander Franco. Then, when he was suspended and they were left with Taylor Walls and a clearl-not-ready-yet Junior Caminero, they had no one to blame but themselves.

Mariners: Lots, honestly. Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Cooper Criswell. Arozarena, like Paredes, was one of those 'you're just doing this to avoid paying him' deals, and while Arozarena has found more success in Seattle, he really should have become a Rays hero. 

Marlins: Xavier Edwards was another infield prospect that just couldn't find room, then got dealt and found playing time and his mojo. Pete Fairbanks was a truly unfair post-2025 cut, and had been doing well enough in a closing role for the Marlins before going on paternity leave. 

Nationals: Zack Littell had become a really nice starting piece for the Rays, and for his troubles he was dealt to the Reds. Now the Nats have him, and he's been serviceable. 

Orioles: Andrew Kittredge ended last year with the Cubs, yet still had a desire to return to the Orioles, because he seemed to enjoy it so much in the first half. That's not even mentioning folks like Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, two pieces of a near-powerful rotation that the Rays had no incentive to keep. 

Padres: You may recall that Jake Cronenworth was a Rays farmhand before his inclusion in the Hunter Renfroe deal. Dodged that bullet, I guess, or else, like Renfroe, he might be a journeyman by now.

Pirates: Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery were also sent to Tampa in the Lowe deal. Both have found niche roles in Pittsburgh that aren't terribly different from their niche roles in Tampa.

Reds: Both Nathaniel Lowe and Emilio Pagan had crucial roles in competitive Rays teams. Neither have had tremendous starts to this season, but Pagan at least has 4 saves right now. 

Twins: Joe Ryan, like Bradley, was a Rays farmhand. Ryan was dealt for Nelson Cruz, found his way up in Minnesota and became a star.

Yankees: The Rays really could have kept Jose Caballero if they wanted to, but they traded the then-season saves leader to the Yankees, and since then Cabby's been a wise, trusty infield fill-in. 

I'm not sure if any lockout or bargaining agreement or salary cap or ANYTHING can change the way the Rays run their team. It's a very cheap way of doing business, and with no checks or balances against it from the MLB level, they're gonna keep doing it. I don't think they'll ever win a World Series this way, and I don't think the Rays Wall of Fame will be especially long if every plaque ends with 'after a strong four seasons he was dealt to a competitor, where he was paid more and won a World Series'. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of many pieces of proof in Anaheim that good things come to those who wait.

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Twins

 

In May 2025, the Minnesota Twins won 13 games in a row, including 6 wins against the Orioles, and key matchups against playoff teams Boston and Milwaukee. 

From August 15, 2025, until the end of the season, the Minnesota Twins won only...13 games.

So something clearly happened. And that something was the organization completely giving up.

After the deadline, not only were some of the few short-term successes, like Harrison Bader, Chris Paddack, Ty France and Willi Castro, gone, but so were some long term organizational pieces like Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Louie Varland and Danny Coulombe. By the end of the season, Rocco Baldelli would join them out the door. So now, going into 2026, the Twins only have a few strong pieces remaining. Byron Buxton is still there, but how healthy will he be at 32? Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are still starting weapons, provided they're not dealt in the next two months. Royce Lewis is still there, assuming he doesn't miss 80 games again. And Luke Keaschall, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel and David Festa will all factor into this team's development. Eventually.

But it's clear that the dream of the Baldelli years is over, the Bomba squad is all but dead, and the new task needs to be reestablishing an identity. I will most likely be checking in on the Twins in Ft. Myers this spring, and hopefully what I have to report back with is remotely positive. 

For now, there is at least the fact that the Twins got 27 starts out of Bailey Ober this year. They weren't the highest quality, and he had a 5.10 ERA and a 6-9 record, but he was there for the Twins all year, topped out at 146 innings and ensured they at least had two guys they could count on all year.

2026 Prediction: A much better year. Not sure if he'll still be around by August though.

Trevor Larnach has consistently attempted to legitimize himself without being an altogether impressive ballplayer. He's never hit above .260, he's never notched 20 homers, his defense is nonexistent, and this was his fullest season yet at 142 games, and his most disposable. Larnach hit .250 with 17 homers and 60 RBIs, fine for a mid-lineup bat but I really thought he'd be on a better pace by now.

2026 Prediction: Loses playing time to younger, and better, competitors.

Similarly, Ryan Jeffers, who had a terrific year in 2023 as a difference-making contact catcher, has mellowed out to being perfunctory both offensively and defensively. This year, Jeffers hit .266 with 9 homers and 47 RBIs, offensively more on target than last year. Trouble is his defense is an issue now. Meaning at a certain point Christian Vazquez felt like a defensive upgrade.

2026 Prediction: At some point, the Twins are gonna give Noah Cardenas a shot, and Jeffers' days may be numbered in Minnesota.

Royce Lewis is the definition of a novelty. When he's healthy, he blasts homers out of Target Field at an alarming pace. But he's NEVER healthy. This was Lewis's fullest season yet, at 106 games, and also his least noteworthy. He hit 13 homers and had 53 RBIs, with a .671 OPS. Big whup. Not much better defensively either.

2026 Prediction: It will be his age 27 season. Sometimes, somebody can do something incredible at 27 and then go back to how it was before. I'm thinking Lewis will fall into that category.

In a move that initially confused fans, the Phillies sent Kody Clemens to Minnesota midyear, in what would later become a move to free up space for Otto Kemp. Clemens had no trouble finding playing time in Minneapolis, and took 1st from Ty France after he left, doing a pretty bang-up job, with 19 homers and 52 RBIs in 112 games. I think Clemens is best used as a backup/utility guy, but even in a starting role with a dire team he was one of the highlights.

2026 Prediction: May start occasionally but I think the Twins will use him mostly as a backup 1B, assuming they have any desire to make Josh Bell play 1st at all.

Coming Tomorrow- I was not expecting I'd have this many White Sox left. They actually seemed to figure out what the future looks like after a bit.

Far from Fort Myers

 

So every three years in March I end up in Fort Myers, Florida. My uncle lives down there, we don't see him that often in Jersey for work reasons, it's easier to come down cause it's Florida and it's nice down there. It just ends up happening every 3 years for Spring Training. Always when the World Baseball Classic's on. 2017, 2023, probably next year. And Fort Myers, they have the Twins and the Red Sox down there. Always have. I remember going to the Sox's old complex on St. Patrick's Day in 2006. Packed with Sox fans. Insane. 

I've grown to anticipate seeing the Twins' facility when I'm down there, because it's a lot homier than the Boston one. You can go backfield at Fenway South but they block it off after an allotted time. Hammond Park they don't care. I watched BP last time. Tony Oliva holding court. Saw Randy Dobnak and Byron Button signing for kids. It's just cozier. More tempered type of fan. Plus, bratwurst. 

It's a good team to see in March. Cause there's no cynicism, no 'why didn't we do this last year'. Optimism reigns. In 2023, they had a full team, and one that looked competitive, even if it still felt like they were starting over a little. I think about how it's gonna feel next year. Aside from Buxton, Ryan and Lopez, what even is the future of this team? All those young guys that were supposed to inherit the team have kinda stuck in and rolled into despondency. Remember when Alex Kirilloff was supposed to be the guy? Remember when Eduoard Julien was supposed to be a fixture in that middle infield? This team has boiled down to a bunch of guys who are built well and look like great ballplayers but can't do anything. Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner. What can you even say?

I think going into this year, or last year, people were calling Matt Wallner one of the best outfielders in the game, and I didn't get it. Wallner's big and strong and can run but right now he's just not hitting. Usually his OPS is around .850, right now it's .783. He's hitting .204, and while his 21 homers are a career high...what can you say he's even doing? He's an average hitter, below average infielder, he's just big. I feel like he's a front for something. Like a business that makes no money and clearly has a money laundering scheme running out the back. Larnach is like that too, he always gives the idea that he's gonna hit better than he has, and he just sits around .250 with 16 homers. How do you tell when they're succeeding if this is just what they do? At least Buxton you can see him spring into action. 

The Twins are gonna need that promising, rebuilding feel in March in Ft. Myers. Cause right now there's no promise to be found. Just a slog of a last month and then you can put it to bed. 

Coming Tomorrow [?]: I did not expect this team to be as variable at catcher over the past 3 years, but here's the newest one they've settled on. At least he can hit.

The Good News is You Get to Start Everyday

 

The Twins are currently going through what I can only describe as the major league equivalent of open tryouts. They've got a few positions set in stone, like centerfield and 2 rotation spots, and pretty much everything else is up in the air. They're not competing, they're already below the Orioles in the AL standings, and they're trending further downward. And so we're just throwing people out there at this point.

The good side of that is that the guys who've been platooned the past few years and haven't been able to start everyday are finally getting more opportunities to play. Brooks Lee had to wait for injuries to both Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis to make his debut last year, and until Correa got dealt he was a utility guy. Now he's got short to himself. At the very least, Lee is producing, with 13 homers and 54 RBIs, but he's doing this with barely any defensive support and not a lot of contact hitting. Lee, like Lewis, was a prized prospect that has matured into an above-average infield bat without much versatility. It's good that he's hitting alright but it doesn't feel like he's doing much else right now.

Already, the Twins have been chucking some recent trade returns out there to see if there were any immediate dividends. James Outman is hitting about as well as he did in LA, Alan Roden stunk it up then got hurt, and both Mick Abel and Taj Bradley got lit up in their premier Minnesota starts. It sucks cause both Abel and Bradley have flirted with greatness, but this isn't a very comforting circumstance. Having to pitch for this team now, to essentially keep the lights on, isn't a great way to reestablish yourself. 

The really frightening bit is that the only people who are still on this team, and healthy,  and have a WAR of more than 1 are Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan...and Luke Keaschall, who's been active since the deadline. Two stars and a rookie. Everybody else is replacement level, and a lot of other guys are just good at one thing. Matt Wallner's fundamentally a good hitter, but he hits .217. Royce Lewis is good for the occasional long ball but they're way more spread out this year. Ryan Jeffers is an above-average hitter but a liability behind the plate. This is a team that seemed to be a swiss army knife of intriguing young guys that could be platooned, and now that they all have room to start they're not accomplishing anything.

I hate to say it, but next year might not be pretty either. It might be more of this. Sifting pieces around until they fall into holes. Who knows if Ryan or Buxton will even stick around. I know Buxton wants to retire as a Twin but I'd prefer he retire with some dignity.

Coming Tomorrow- A big guy who hits all sorts of stuff, and even he can't make the Cardinals good.

New Chapter, Dull Book

 

Lately, the Twins have been doing this new on-base celebration where they mime turning the pages of a book, and according to Austin Martin, it's because everyone on the Twins know they need to flip the script on their atrocious season and are trying to write a new chapter. And it's cool seeing guys like Martin and Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee and such all doing the page-turning thing on second. But the thing about writing a new chapter is that if the first several chapters of a book are dogshit, people aren't gonna want to keep reading to get to where the book gets good.

The Twins had a truly excellent stretch in May, and a really nice streak. Then people got hurt and in June they lost enough games to completely undo the effect of said streak, and they couldn't pick themselves back up again. Then at the deadline they sold hard, giving up Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran, Ty France, Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland. That's...a lot of people. Meaning they've basically been left to die these last couple months. It's really just Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, a mostly-healthy Royce Lewis, and bits and pieces of other players who were supposed to be better. Matt Wallner and his .218 average just went on paternity leave, and that's enough to really affect this team.

Though, to be fair, there are little inklings of regrowth happening now. One of them is Luke Keaschall, who was up in May for a very different version of this Twins team, then got hurt and couldn't come back til now. To be fair, he's been excellent in the majors, hitting .406 with 10 RBIs in his first 10 MLB games. You're also seeing Brooks Lee finally turning a corner, now that he actually has somewhere to play, as he's hitting .249 with 11 homers and 44 RBIs. And Kody Clemens may have found more of a home in Minneapolis than he did as a utility guy for the Phils. You're also seeing way more dominance from organizational favorite Zebby Matthews, who's at least had a couple strong starts since being brought back up. Beyond Ryan and Ober the Twins have a lot of question marks, but Matthews is surer than he was.

Granted, a lot of the rest of the season is gonna be a lot of musical chairs for replacement level guys. Lots of games of forcing Austin Martin to play defense or trotting Edouard Julien out there despite his lack of hitting, or giving DeShawn Keirsey another try despite...everything. Cause at this point the plan is to regroup next year in Fort Myers and figure out a unit that doesn't do this. I'm not exactly sure how many more years away the competitive idea is, but with Buxton, Ryan and Keaschall hopefully sticking around, they've at least got a starting point.

Coming Tonight: The Reds have been without Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson all year, have seen Hunter Greene get hurt and Chase Burns struggle with major league hitting. He even got here a month late. If the Reds were worried about him, they wouldn't have to for long.

Don't Believe the Hyphenate

 

I think this might be the centerpiece of Rocco Baldelli's famously inconsistent Twins tenure. Their most inconsistent season yet. One moment they're tanking, the next they're streaking. One moment they've built a wall of young talent and the next they're all not doing anything. One moment they're creeping towards first and the next they're barely embedded in the barely-below-.500 scrum shrouded towards the middle of the division. The second this team actually feels like they have an identity they spoil it all and bury themselves behind people that aren't worth it. And now we're here again, circling third and trying to do something with a rare healthy, meaningful Byron Buxton season.

I suppose what's been nice about this season is that Buxton literally had to go 'I am going to retire as a Twin', not only to encourage the fans not to worry he'd be getting traded but to discourage the brass from trading him. Buxton knows he's the hero of this team, and he doesn't want to play anywhere else, and he knows they've got more of a shot with him than without him. You're hearing people like Duran and Bader and Danny Coulombe [probably] mentioned as potential trade assets, and they're in enough of the race that they're not completely selling the team, but Buxton knows that there's always a chance. 

The Twins are still building enough of a team that can keep moving ahead and potentially rebound from a down year. A lot of that exists within this rotation, which, despite losing Pablo Lopez for a bit, has a very bright future. Ryan and Ober are big pieces, Paddack is at least an innings-filler, and then you've got Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, all 25 and under, looking to sink into non-negotiable spots. Matthews did have some trouble early, and is now hurt, but he's supposed to be big. Festa has shown some promise but has an ERA over 5. The only sure-looking starter is Simeon Woods-Richardson, and even then it's after a send-down earlier. He's got a 3.95 ERA 5 wins and 62 Ks in 15 games. In an unstable year, Woods-Richardson has provided stability, especially since coming back from St. Paul. He's not the showiest arm, but in a season that requires momentum to build, he's been reliable enough.

It's still gonna be very difficult for this Twins team to contend without any production from Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach or Royce Lewis. The belief was that if those pieces stayed healthy they'd truly help this team, and it just hasn't come together yet. There's obviously still more season to play, but considering that the other 3 contenders in this division have more of an identity and story this year, things don't look great for the Twins at the moment.

Coming Tomorrow- In a healthier year for an oft-injured rotation, he's been surprisingly lethal. 

Nowhere Duran

 

I dunno, something about these Baldelli Twins teams always have a way of balancing out. From April 20th to May 20th, the Twins won 20 games, the majority of them consecutive. Then since June 4th they've lost 13. They were so good in May that even two of their biggest stars getting concussions only slowed down a little, and now the wheels are falling off. First Zebby Matthews gets hurt, which...I mean, sure, but then Royce Lewis gets hurt, which happens so frequently that there's gotta be a way of preventing it at this point. And now the Twins are back in fourth, which is where they were before they went on the winning streak. There is no middle ground for these guys, they're either on fire or listless.

The issue, inherently, is that the 'background players holding up the team' thing that powered the team in May is now dead. The walls have collapsed. You've now got a lot of guys with .8 WARs running around trying to be helpful. Kody Clemens, despite a lot of offensive production, is hitting .223. Trevor Larnach, despite his 35 RBIs, still can't stop striking out. Wallner just keeps refusing to be the guy. Even Carlos Correa is providing mediocrity, only hitting .246 with 22 RBIs so far. Yes, Buxton and Bader and Castro ensure this team can have an edge, but the varied cast of ensemble players, while helpful in a streak, stand out as unhelpful during a slide. It's beginning to feel like this team really is wasting one of Buxton's fullest and most confident seasons in years, and it's kind of upsetting.

The same can also be said for a dominant campaign from Jhoan Duran, who hasn't been this unhittable since his rookie season in 2022. He's currently got a 1.62 ERA, 10 saves and 39 Ks. Just a dominant, hard-to-get-around closing option, and arguably an improvement over Taylor Rogers. Like a lot of closers these days, Duran is prone to down seasons and stretches, but he's looking better than he has in a while. The bullpen in general is in pretty good shape at the moment as well, even if there's a few too many guys with 4 ERAs. And it just feels like it's for nothing because A.) the lineup has too many places without production and B.) the rotation, aside from Joe Ryan, just feels uninspired right now. 

It's gotta be frustrating for the fans as well. This team felt so exciting and promising before. If this streak had happened in September there'd be playoff hopes and a run and it might lead to something, but it happened midyear and it was surrounded by much more crucial losing stretches. So unless all of this is leading to a much longer, and more sustainable, hot streak, all that may have been for nothing. 

Coming Tomorrow- A couple years ago, the Pirates started billing Oneil Cruz as this all-time talent, a guy who could do anything and hit laser beams and revitalize baseball. And that hasn't exactly happened. But then the Reds brought up this other guy...

Perfectly Even

 

Looking at the Twins now, 2 months into the season, is fascinating. This might be the single most even, level and consistent team in the bigs. You look around at this team and pretty much everything is working. Even on the really good teams there's some pitching issue or a hole at 3rd. The Twins just have good people everywhere right now, and...as such, they're in second and rolling.

For the first time, it feels like a lot of the factors that have been building for years in this organization are finally paying off. Byron Buxton having his fullest season in years, hitting .274 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs. He's finally feeling like the all-around hitter the team's deserved for years. Chris Paddack, who the Twins traded for years ago in the hopes he'd perform as he did in 2019, has turned into a pretty strong mid-rotation arm, with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts. Pablo Lopez, despite skipping a couple starts, has continued his excellent Minnesota pace, with a 2.82 ERA and 60 Ks in 11 starts. Jhoan Duran was the strongest reliever in the bigs last month, currently has a 0.99 ERA, and headlines a very strong rotation with several multifaceted arms. And a number of mid-lineup hitters, like Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Ty France and Matt Wallner, have been producing consistently as of late. Now Willi Castro's joining in, with a couple days of consistent RBIs.

There are slight stumbling points at the moment, like Zebby Matthews in that 5th starting spot [should be David Festa] and Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis's struggling prospect platoon at 3rd. But they're not killing the team. The idea is for Lewis to go on a tear [like he usually does], or for Matthews to finally acclimate to the majors, and enough is going well that these things can take their time. Right now there's only 3 people on the IL, and none are especially crucial pieces; Danny Coulombe and his 0.00 ERA will be back eventually, and Luke Keaschall is 22 and will have plenty of other chances. Hopefully the injury luck stays this good, although Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack are aware of the odds there.

I dunno, I was expecting this team to skirt the middle but because so much is working, and so uniformly, the Twins might be a surprise sleeper favorite. If they stay this consistent for the next few months, they could be working on something. And that doesn't even account for the guys that weren't working in April or May that have the potential to spark fire and help the team later on. I'm really intrigued by this prospect of this team continuing to factor into this division, and I hope they can keep the Guardians and Royals at bay for a bit longer.

Coming Tomorrow- He left my team, he hit some home runs, and now there's this idea that he could come back.

What It Takes To End a 13-Game Winning Streak

 

Of all teams to go from completely joyless to an atom bomb in a matter of weeks, I was not expecting the Minnesota Twins. The last time I checked their WAR leaders to make a custom, there was a lot of shrugging. 'Matt Wallner I guess'. 'Harrison Bader's got a high WAR at least'. Like I didn't get many definitive answers about who was actually leading this team, or where the energy was coming from.

On April 20th, they were 7-15. Now they are 26-21. Something clicked. And as evidenced by that 13-game winning streak, whatever the team hadn't found in the first month of play is powering this team now. But two elements are important here- the Twins being able to go on a 13-game streak, and the Brewers being the team to beat it.

Looking at this run, 7 of these wins were against teams that have been pretty good this season. Two wins against the Red Sox, kicking off the streak, a sweep of the Giants, and two wins against the Brewers to end the sweep. And that's honestly more than I expected, because sometimes when these streaks happen, it's the result of a swatch of scheduling decisions that benefit the streaking team, and a lot of bad teams just lining up. But the Twins going on a 13-game winning streak does not reflect having to play a lot of bad teams. There's only one bad team they really played in this stretch...and it is the Baltimore Orioles. Who they took 6 games from in the span of a week. If you want to root the Brandon Hyde firing to anything, it may have been the two Twins sweeps in a week, including 1 shutout. 

And it's not like, even during the streak, the Twins were this overpowering monolith with no flaws. 6 of those wins were within 2 or less runs. Two of them came in Simeon-Woods-Richardson starts where he gave up the entirety of the opposing teams' runs. In fact, sending Woods-Richardson down to bring up Zebby Matthews was the move that led to the end of the streak. Maybe if they'd have gone with David Festa it'd still be going on? 

And you also have to take into account that during this streak, there was a notorious collision between Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa which led to both being out on concussion protocol. Once again, Buxton and Correa were having terrific seasons, and they just have the worst luck getting through a season without a calamity like this befalling them. Buxton's been incredible, with 10 homers and 27 RBIs, plus he's reliable in center once again. Correa's numbers were just ticking up before his injury break. That's two crucial pieces of the lineup right there, and it illuminates how reluctant a lot of the other guys are to step up. Royce Lewis is only hitting .205, Brooks Lee's only hitting .250, Carson McCusker hasn't lit up yet. There was promise with Luke Keaschall but he immediately got hurt. The pitching is strong enough, and the power core is reliable enough, that a lot of very meh seasons have led this team to 2nd place. They can grow past it and continue at this pace if people start truly stepping up, but that'll take a bit more from Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers.

Now, as for the Brewers ending the streak, it illuminates that despite some of the rough luck the Brewers have had recently, they're still inherently a good team. Right now Jackson Chourio is only hitting .242, Christian Yelich's comeback has been forgettable, Joey Ortiz and Caleb Durbin aren't hitting, Brandon Woodruff still isn't back yet, and the team is in fourth. A huge chunk of what made this team playoff-ready last year is either missing or ineffective, and a lot of other competitors have been taking 2 or more from them on a regular basis.

The most worrying factor in the Brewers' 2025 season thus far has been the impact the rookies have had on this team. So far this season, the Brewers have called up Caleb Durbin, Oliver Dunn, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson and Craig Yoho. Five really big organizational pieces. Only Patrick and Henderson have made much of an impact, and in a season where Woodruff, Quintana, Civale and Cortes have had injury issues, it's a very good thing. Henderson's won both his starts so far, and has a 2.45 ERA, while Patrick has taken on the Tobias Myers role of 'rookie workhorse' [which...maybe go easy on him next year], and has a 3.35 ERA through 9 starts. But Durbin's struggled, Dunn once again could hit nothing on an MLB stint, and Yoho struggled mightily in 5 relief appearances. Jefferson Quero is still on the 40-man, and honestly they should wait til he's ready given all of that.

Yet there are still pieces of this team capable of greatness. Rhys Hoskins is getting hot, raising his average to .288 with 5 homers and 25 RBIs. Brice Turang is also hitting .288 with 12 steals. Abner Uribe, finally healthy has lived up to the hype and has been a terrific setup man. And once again, Freddy Peralta, the last of the big three standing at the moment, has taken the ace status without cowering, with a 5-3 record, a 2.59 ERA and 57 Ks. Recently he struck out his 1000th batter, and as his 30th birthday approaches he's still one of the most reliable and consistent strikeout artists in the game. 

If the Twins, with all their flaws, are good enough to go on a 13-game winning streak, it's only fitting that another flawed-but-decent team like the Brewers would be the team to end it. These things have a habit of balancing out.

Coming Tomorrow- His dad was a contact machine at short for a low-level competitor, but at least that team wasn't playing in a minor league park. 

Joe Ryan's Belt

 

I dunno what to tell you with the Twins. You can tell they really try, they really put a lot of people in position to succeed, and something always goes wrong. Carlos Correa, as talented as he is, is wildly inconsistent. Byron Buxton is terrific but never stays healthy. Same with Royce Lewis. They already had a potential foundational offensive talent literally retire on account of being unable to stay healthy. Something about this team is seriously snakebitten, which makes the fact that they actually won a playoff series a few years ago all the more heartbreaking. They were the ones to finally snap the whole city's curse, and yet they still remain cursed themselves.

The real curse this season has just been the ineptitude. Not a lot of injured pieces, just a lot of very blah ones. I will never not be confused by Matt Wallner, who's such a gifted athlete and terrific outfielder, just refusing to really accomplish much. Through a month, Wallner has, through 57 at-bats, 3 RBIs and 1 home run. And yet because he does so many other things well, he has a 0.7 WAR already. Because he's good at contact stuff, he has good value, but...again, what has he done?? For comparisons sake, Ty France,  who has 17 RBIs and is hitting .248, has a 0.1 WAR. I don't really understand a lot of statistical categories they use, and I do get that France is replacement level and Wallner is a proven starter, but Matt Wallner just hasn't accomplished enough, in my eyes, to warrant such a statistical boost. Like, Luke Keaschall was really helping this team, he was hitting .368, he stole 5 bases. Him getting injured immediately, that hurts the team. That's an impact. I don't get Wallner's impact yet. 

Joe Ryan's appeal I do get, though. In the past few seasons, Ryan has been the Twins' best pitcher. He was hurt a little last year, but when he was healthy he was really strong. So far this season he's been equally impressive, with a 3.18 ERA and 39 Ks. Even in this more frustrating, offensively-duller season, having surefire guys like Ryan and Lopez keep you from falling into last. Not that there'd be too much danger of that this year, as the White Sox do exist, but the Twins, despite the recent spike, have been rocked a bit this year. Ryan, Lopez, Ober and now David Festa have provided really strong innings for this team, and give a bit of hope that when things turn around [which looks likely this week], they'll be alright ultimately.

The Twins are gonna keep confusing me, because it's not as obvious as like 2019 where the heart of the team is, if it's with power or defense or whatever. With the Tigers and Guardians, and I suppose the Royals, the Twins need to find that hook and figure out how they can outlast the competition, because if not it may be Baldelli's ass this year.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many truly excellent defenders in Milwaukee.