Showing posts with label Luis Gil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luis Gil. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Yankees

 

If the last year or so has taught me anything, it is this: everybody wants to play in New York. They just don't realize it til it's too late that they don't want to play for the Yankees.

In 2024, the Yankees had the biggest star in the game come to them and play beautifully, and then he decided the Mets were respecting him more. This year, Cody Bellinger had an incredible year with the Yankees, and now it's looking like Scott Boras is making a deal very difficult. Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes are all suiting up for the Mets next year after we seemed to burn our bridges with them. The only people that haven't fled the Bronx have been Paul Blackburn and Amed Rosario. And meanwhile, we gave Caleb Durbin to Milwaukee, gave Michael King a much firmer place to start in San Diego, Drew Thorpe will start for the Sox this year if he's healthy enough, and in a year or two Roc Riggio is gonna hit 40 homers in Coors Field. We're much better at improving other teams than we are at improving our own.

The Yankees still had the third-highest record in baseball this year, delivered an MVP season for Aaron Judge, and was home to several great seasons from a variety of role-players. But that wasn't enough either. The Jays were better than us, and could consistently show up in October. And so here we are, still trying to win a World Series for the first time since Steinbrenner was still alive. Will it happen in 2026? For the low, low price of 199.99, a Yankee championship could be yours..

Austin Wells was the primary choice at catcher this year, as Jose Trevino was flipped to Cincinnati for a strong year of Fernando Cruz. Wellsy has his perks but he's not perfect. In 126 games he hit .219 with 21 homers and 71 RBIs, a very average offensive season. Defensively he was a liability this year. We've gotta do better than 'Wells or Rice' as a catching platoon, man.
2026 Prediction: A colossal improvement. I'm not sure if it'll be enough to become THE guy back there for the next 10 years, but it'll do the trick.

In a year without Gerrit Cole, and in a year where Luis Gil would be out for several months, the last spot in the rotation, behind Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt, went to rookie Will Warren. Warren had some chances in 2024, but was still a risk for a rotation spot right after a championship. Sure enough, Warren was one of two Yankees to make all 33 starts, and went 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, 171 Ks and 80 earned runs in 162 innings. A little messy, and a bit too many long balls, but the sort of heat that the Yankee fans could get behind.
2026 Prediction: He'll be 27, and he just pitched a full season of high velocity work as a rookie. See ya in 2027. I'd love to be wrong and get another full campaign from him, but I just can't trust pitchers anymore.

Jasson Dominguez spent the entire year in the majors. He is 22 years old, still one of the most promising young players in baseball, and still reaching his full potential. Due to platooning him with Trent Grisham, Dominguez played 123 games, and hit .257 with 10 home runs and 47 RBIs. The moment simply has not come yet. It looked like it was here in 2023, when Dominguez was on fire on a call-up and aided the team before getting hurt, but he's really yet to take charge of an opportunity since then. I'm really worried Boone has given him the Yermin Mercedes effect, where he's been so warped by a manager's tough love that he can't perform to the standard.
2026 Prediction: It all comes down to whether or not the Yanks re-sign Bellinger. Cause if they do, and Grisham still takes seniority, we have another year of this. But if they don't, and Dominguez can start everyday, not only does he have a breakout year and 30 homers, but it's more of an incentive to get Spencer Jones up.

Clarke Schmidt only had 14 games up this year due to injuries, but he looked very good in them. In 79 innings he had a 3.32 ERA, 73 Ks and a 1.7 WAR. Very good use of our time. Sadly he didn't factor much into the team's progress in the second half.
2026 Prediction: Much fuller, healthier year. His free agency is coming up kinda soon, too, so it's about time.

And now, our bullpen, or as they will be known next year, the Mets' bullpen. Luke Weaver's been terrific for us since we turned him into a reliever, and this year he began to wear out his welcome slightly. In 64 games, Weaver had a 3.62 ERA, a 1.021 WHIP and 72 Ks, plus 8 saves as the Yanks went away from an initial closing choice. Granted, that higher ERA is a clue to why we needed bullpen help midyear. Weaver also had a 135.00 ERA in 3 postseason appearances so...yeah
2026 Prediction: Figures his shit out in Queens, becomes an ideal setup man again.

The biggest picture of 'the Yankees as the problem' came from Devin Williams, a sure shot in the ninth that didn't work at all here, despite the team bending the rules to let Williams keep his beard. Williams did not mesh well with this team, and with the moment; in 67 games he had a 4.79 ERA, with only 18 saves and a lot more blown ones. It's important to add that Williams was perfectly fine in an eighth inning role, and his 90 Ks in 62 innings gave us enough pure dominance to be placated by. But we traded Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin for the next great closer, and Williams was not that guy for us, despite everything that said he would be. He was, however, scoreless in 4 postseason innings, even getting a win. 
2026 Prediction: HUGE season in the ninth for the Mets. They'll move on from Edwin Diaz very quickly.

Luis Gil, as he tends to, missed some time with injuries this season, and when he returned you could tell he was still being very careful not to overexert himself. It seemed to work well enough in terms of dominance, as he had a 3.32 ERA, a 4-1 record and a 1 ERA in 11 starts, despite only 41 Ks. Gil needed to just keep balls in play and work carefully, and it seemed to work out, even if his postseason start didn't go especially well.
2026 Prediction: Much better year, much more on target and closer to 2024.

It initially baffled me when the Yankees traded for Amed Rosario, even sacrificing Clayton Beeter to do so, but Rosario became a very helpful utility bat for us. While a later addition would be the defensive version of this, Rosario had some cool power moments, hitting .303 with 10 hits, 5 RBIs and a home run in 16 games. He also had 3 hits and an RBI in 10 postseason at-bats. From the strength of this small sample size, the Yanks kept him on, making Rosario the only person to seem to prefer the Yankees to the Mets this decade.
2026 Prediction: Nowhere near as contact-friendly but he'll have some cool moments late.

Landing David Bednar from the Pirates was a huge move, as it finally gave us an effective closer after the last two had let us down. The man known as the Renegade had a rough start in the Bronx, but, as he had earlier this season, found his footing and became an excellent ninth inning man, with a 2.19 ERA, 4 wins, 35 Ks and 10 saves in 22 appearances. He also had a 1.50 ERA, 9 Ks and 2 saves in 6 postseason innings.
2026 Prediction: 35+ saves, the culmination of his whole career.

Shakier still was Camilo Doval, who'd led the league in saves a couple years ago for the Giants. Doval's control issues got the better of him in New York, and in 22 games he had a 4.82 ERA, plus a 1.607 WHIP. Doval figured some things out by October, and gave up 1 earned run in 3 postseason innings.
2026 Prediction: He just needed to adjust. Becomes a really nice relief asset for us, even if it's not pretty in points.

My personal favorite mid-year Yankee pickup was Jose Caballero, who was leading the AL in saves when we got him from the Rays. Cabby is insanely versatile, can play multiple infield positions, hits for contact and steals bases. We needed a guy like him, even if McMahon was taking most of the reps at 3rd. Cabby was a huge success with the Yanks, hitting .266 in 40 games, with 21 hits, 9 RBIs, 3 homers and 15 steals. He was limited in the postseason, but the fans seem to really like him.
2026 Prediction: If Volpe doesn't figure the big leagues out, Cabby might be a winning everyday shortstop. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it certainly could.

And that was 2025. It was a lot. Lots happened this year, in baseball and in general. I didn't post as much as I wanted. I dunno how often I'll post in 2026, or how often I'll have new cards worth posting about. We'll see where things go, I guess. As it stands, thanks for checking out the blog this year, and I hope you've enjoyed the writing and content. I hope to have near as much to say in the following 12 months, and I hope things are a little happier for all of us. 

Monday, November 18, 2024

Rookies of the Year: We've Been Over This Before

 
I'm frankly getting tired of the asterisk ruining the Rookie of the Year award year after year. We just went over this with Randy Arozarena in 2021. For my money, if a player A.) gets rookie cards for playing in a given year, or B.) contributes positively to the league within his first season, that means his rookie service is over. But because team organizations don't sleep at night unless they've screwed over the worker, a rookie year doesn't count unless it's breached a certain bar of games played. It's why Arozarena was still a rookie in 2021 despite playing in many games in 2020, and being a key postseason figure for the Rays that year. Because of the season only being sixty games, he didn't reach that threshold, so his sophomore season outweighed many actual rookie seasons.

And that's how I feel about Luis Gil. Gil already made waves as a rookie in 2021, with his first three starts allowing 0 runs. Though he would only make six starts that season, Gil received rookie cards for the 2022 calendar year. I have several, because card companies made many of them. Gil, however, missed the next two seasons due to injury recovery, and was only a last minute choice to start in 2024 [and we know how well that went]. 

Gil's 2024 season was seen by many as a comeback season. He started strong, got hurt, missed time, came back and was outstanding. That doesn't sound like a rookie season. But in the rules of the MLB, because it broke the service time threshold despite his actual rookie year being three damned years ago, he was still a rookie this year. And as such, he won Rookie of the Year because he had the better season than the other actual rookies he was up against. You're putting a doberman in a dog show and you're confused that the doberman's eating the other dogs.

Now, the other two candidates for the AL Rookie of the Year, Austin Wells and Colton Cowser, did make MLB appearances last year. Neither made much of an impact in 2023. Gil, meanwhile, had a 0.8 WAR in 2021. That's not nothing. That's more than Jackson Holliday mustered in 60 games, it's more than Spencer Arrighetti amassed in 29 starts, and it's more than Spencer Torkelson has gathered in his entire career. IT IS A ROOKIE SEASON. But, of course, the rules remain set in stone, because god forbid they treat a young player like he's worth for spending three years on the 40-man of the richest team in the majors. 

And the thing about the 'comeback' tract now is that, because pitchers get injured more frequently, and sooner into their careers, than ever before, you're seeing 'comeback seasons' for people in their early 20s. What would ordinarily be seen as a breakout is now a comeback because it involves missing two years due to an injury that would come ten years later if everyone wasn't throwing so damned hard. This is what's frustrating me about Andrew Painter, who hasn't even played an MLB game yet. Painter's 2025 season is being billed as a 'comeback campaign'. The man hasn't even been HERE. He's not allowed to COME BACK yet, he's got to GET THERE FIRST. Let Andrew Painter have some MLB seasons for the Phils first, then we can talk about a comeback. 

Gil, meanwhile, is a comeback story. And I judged his 2024 season as such. If billing him as a rookie gets him more accolades, fine, but I don't think it's a wise conflation. Validating that will make it more understandable for organizations to keep futzing with service time and thinking of more ways to undervalue players, and we don't want that.

The inverse of this, of course, is that because Paul Skenes came up in May and won the NL's Rookie of the Year, that means he's automatically passed the rookie threshold. I assumed he did anyway, as his 2024 season is, by many respects, a rookie season. He pitched a very full campaign, an EXCELLENT campaign, and it was his first one in the major leagues. That is a rookie season, and now that it has ended...he is no longer a rookie. I shouldn't have to make it this plain. I was worried he wouldn't make the Topps cutoff and his rookie cards would be pushed to 2025, but thankfully cooler heads prevailed.

Skenes getting the ROY I 100% agree with, though honestly I would have agreed with Jackson Merrill getting it as well, or possibly even Jackson Chourio. You had so many really great rookie competitors in the NL this year, and Skenes was the flashier choice, so naturally he's a great pick for the gold. I'd have been worried if he wasn't considered. Skenes is also up for the Cy Young which...he isn't going to get, though I'm expecting him to edge Wheeler out of 2nd place just to ensure the voting committee can completely waste Wheeler's peak years. 

Anyway, these are two solid picks, but...the whole 'rookie service time' thing is never not gonna piss me off. Luis Gil wasn't a rookie this year. But hey, whatever sells more tickets I guess. 

Sunday, June 16, 2024

The Downside of Overexposure

 


It's fitting in a year where my two favorite teams are among the best in baseball that two of my least favorite teams have acted as the spoilers this month. The Cardinals' Alec Burleson famously sent a comeback to Ranger Suarez's hand, which he thankfully rebounded from. And then the Red Sox, who I was actually beginning to tolerate, have used this weekend to chip away at both of these teams, starting with the Phils and moving to the Yanks, during an explosive homestand.

So while both the Yankees and the Phillies are still looking very good, this week has definitely humbled both of them a tad. It's...wild that the Red Sox were the chief force to do this, but...I mean, honestly, good for them.

The Phillies have had the hardest time out of everybody, as they followed their Sox series with an extremely tense back-and-forth with the Orioles. They managed to secure a win in extras to start it off, but the O's wouldn't make it that simple for the rest of it. I think the way the AL East is structured, the O's have the toughest schedule of the two top competitors, and so they may be a more formidable team than the Yanks [at least right now], even if they have the worse record. So the O's rolling out Henderson, Santander and Rutschman against these guys, and battering down even Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, that's understandable. It's not really a 'something is wrong with this team' moment, the O's are just better at this specific point in time. 

And the Phils are still doing so much right. Ranger Suarez is still unhittable, and he's 10-1 with a 1.77 ERA in June, which is pretty fantastic. Bryce Harper is exceeding the standard, and has 15 homers and 46 RBIs with a .901 OPS. Edmundo Sosa's been so good at short that it's been sparking serious conversations about what to do when Trea Turner returns this week. Marsh's injury was such a non-factor that he's already back, and that at least prepares this team more for a month or so without Realmuto. So the team's still great, and with the Padres coming to town I'm not exactly worried about losing much momentum. 

The Yankees aren't exactly worrying me either, but seeing as I'm seeing them in a week I've gotta be at least a little worried. This Sox series has been their most substantial bloodloss since the Dodgers were in town. LA I can understand, they had Mookie and Yamamoto healthy that week, they're also a really well-put-together team. The Red Sox just have enough guys that can slow us down. They got to Carlos Rodon last night, and we couldn't even get to Cooper Criswell. You're seeing new guys like Enmanuel Valdez and Jamie Westbrook get RBIs against us, all while Volpe, Dugie and Gleyber stay silent. This is not the ideal outcome for a Yanks-Sox series when we know we're better than them.

Even if Rodon and Cortes have slipped, the pitching is still better than most teams. We're probably gonna get Cole back within the week, but even if there's a setback I'm loving Cody Poteet's stuff. It's looking like I'll be seeing Marcus Stroman next Sunday, and I'm perfectly fine with those odds, even if his away ERA is lower than his home ERA [which we knew would be the case]. The 'pen is still pretty good. Soto's injury was exaggerated and he's back to what he was doing before. Stanton and Judge are hot [Judge hit #26 as I was writing this]. This team's been looking pretty complete, and I really hope they keep hanging on.

People are gonna wanna use this weekend to undercut the legitimacy of these two teams, and I still think they're the best in the league, and have so much more to build. These two teams will face off at the end of July. It'll be interesting to see what they look like at that point.

Coming Tomorrow- The summation of what it means to be a super-ute in 2024.

Friday, December 31, 2021

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Yankees

 

...look, man. I don't know what to tell ya. The Yankees can stock their team with god knows who and god knows what, they can net some of the best talent at the deadline, they can have momentum from a good portion of their big stars, and it's not gonna do anything. And everybody else in baseball's fine with it, cause, well hey, they've won 27 of these, it's not a big loss. Meanwhile, teams like the Rays, with much cheaper payrolls, are getting further and acting like it's nothing. 

It's exhausting, guys. My first year blogging, both my teams played each other in the World Series. Now both of them are just doomed to horrible luck and being outdone by smaller competitors.

Brett Gardner is the last remaining Yankee who remembers the 2009 World Series, and I'd like to think this is the end of the rope for him. We've done the Andy Pettitte thing of just re-signing him on year deals just out of goodwill, but I don't think he has much left at all. Once again, Gardy was intended as a backup outfielder and played 140 games, hitting .222 with 39 RBIs and 10 home runs. 
2022 Prediction: I think he finally retires. The Yankees have signed Ender Inciarte to play the backup outfield role, and Gardy will be 38 next year. Maybe I'm wrong and some low-ball team brings him on. 

With Luis Severino and Deivi Garcia playing little part in the 2021 season, once-disgraced starter Domingo German had a pretty prominent role in things pre-injury. German started 18 games, had a 4.58 ERA, 98 Ks and a 4-5 record. A few shaky starts, but generally a strong option.
2022 Prediction: Well. The 2022 rotation seems to look like Cole, Montgomery, Taillon, Severino barring another injury, and someone else in this post. I don't think German has a spot here because everybody else in that schematic hasn't let the team down as much. So he does relief work and waits for an injury. 

One of the most exciting developments heading into 2021 was seeing Corey Kluber, to this point one of my favorite non-Yankee pitchers, pitch in the Bronx. It went mostly pretty well, as Klu even notched a no-hitter before, conveniently, landing on the IL. In 16 starts he had a 3.83 ERA, 5 wins, and 86 of his trademark Ks. 
2022 Prediction: Will play a similar role to Rich Hill last year when he suits up for the Rays. Some great starts, some human moments, but surprising quality. 

Undeniably, the best bullpen asset of 2021 was Joathan Loaisiga. Not even close. Loaisiga had the 4th-highest WAR on the whole team with 3.3- only Cole, Judge and Gumby had higher. In 57 appearances, he had a 2.17 ERA, 9 wins [more than any starter not named Cole], 69 Ks and only 17 earned runs. 
2022 Prediction: A step back, but still reliable numbers. Might even have to work the ninth once or twice.

Never made a Tyler Wade custom prior to this year? Well damn, here's one. Complete with a cool 9/11 inspired cap. The Yanks' resident super-ute had another nice year, hitting .268 with 34 hits and a team-high 17 steals in 105 games. 
2022 Prediction: I see him making a small team and by the end of the year he's starting. The Yanks kept him hid, he's pretty damn underrated. 

Now a few people who joined the team just barely into the season. Rougned Odor joining the Yankees was a pretty big deal- yes, he hadn't hit for average in a few years, but he's a fun, pesky little hitter who used to infuriate me. Better on our side than theirs. Rougie was a decent replacement during injuries to D.J. LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, and hit .202 with 15 homers and 39 RBIs in 102 games. Not perfect, but capable of some upsides.
2022 Prediction: The O's are going to like him. He might be in the top half of production in Baltimore, given their quality.

The biggest surprise was this guy, Nestor Cortes Jr. A former Orioles low-tier starting prospect, he relieved some games for us in 2019, was cut by the Mariners prior to the season and wound up back here. We initially used him in a long relief role/taking over for a short start, but we eventually gave him a rotation position, and he was honestly pretty phenomenal, with a 2.90 ERA, 103 Ks, and a 1.075 WHIP in 14 starts. During the stretch run, where we were looking for any bit of stability, Cortes was a nice safety blanket that we did not expect.
2022 Prediction: 10 wins, a similar unsung hero role behind bigger names, and hopefully some higher pay for it.
In a moment of starting droughts, the Yankees called up farmhand Luis Gil, to give him a shot. Gil raised some eyebrows early when he went his first three starts before allowing a run, eventually finishing with a 3.07 ERA and 38 Ks in 6 games. A little less than perfect towards the end, but some stellar energy in August. 
2022 Prediction: Not sure if there's an immediate place for him in the rotation, but he will get some starts in the majors eventually. 
And we end on the big deadline deal I didn't do during the season, that one dimensional outfield bat Joey Gallo. Gallo in New York did exactly what I thought- he had some great defensive numbers, but barely hit for average, with a .160! He didn't completely erase his stellar start, but he did stall in place for a bit. Bottom line is his power numbers didn't suffer, with 22 RBIs and 13 homers. 
2022 Prediction: Numbers a bit more similar to his first half, some more defensive dominance, and giving Stanton and Judge a run for their money with homers.

That's Uncustomed Heroes for this year. Regular customs will be back in February [?], and I've got some things cooked up for the next few months.