Empty Pages

 

Hey...guess who has the best record in baseball? No, really, guess. You'll never get it.

Despite being upset by the Rockies twice this weekend [more proof that the Rox are quietly improving], the Dodgers are still 15-6, and surging in all the places people thought they would. Shohei Ohtani's on-base streak is still active? Of course it is. Freddie Freeman's still an elite 1B option even after 35? Of course he is. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's still one of the best starters in the game? You know it. 

Though shockingly, the team's current WAR leader is not Shohei Ohtani, nor Freeman or Yamamoto, but one Andy Pages. Pages had a strong first few months to the 2025 season before balancing out a bit, but his April's been outrageous, with a 1.083 OPS, a .389 average, 28 hits and 21 RBIs, all league highs. Pages also has 5 homers, tied for second place with Ohtani and...Dalton Rushing?? Is that right? The Dodgers' backup catcher can rake like hell? Damn, that's pretty helpful in case something happens to Will Smith. But yeah, Pages has led the charge, and unlike some contemporaries [James Outman mostly], he's proven to have MLB staying power and has become more multifaceted than before. Gotta love that this team can still find new heroes even in a lineup with 3 MVPs in it. 

You're also seeing some of the guys who had slower starts begin to find themselves. Kyle Tucker's slowly heating up, he has 3 homers and 13 RBIs now. It's not as immediate as his Chicago success was but he's still pretty damn good. Ohtani only has 10 RBIs but he's also like their best starter so I think the Dodgers can let it slide. Glasgow's 2-0 with a team-leading 29 Ks and a 3.24 ERA, so he's getting his stuff under control. Jack Dreyer and Tanner Scott have gotten their ERAs back down, and Edwin Diaz is trying to. Even Justin Wrobleski can hang on for a truly dominant start in a rotation that happened to have an open space, and now he's sticking around. I do think once Snell and Knack come back he'll be back to long relief, but this will at least make him look desirable to the other 29 teams.

Even without Mookie Betts and Blake Snell, this is still a good Dodgers team because it's gained depth naturally vs. out of injury necessity. Justin Wrobleski feels like a genuine starting option and not a failsafe. There are no stunts to avoid bullpen depth. The bench guys are valuable MLB options. The system doesn't feel like it's being gamed...yet. Though...if nobody can stop this team then we really do deserve a lockout. Cause they're good, but they're not immaculate. No team is immaculate. So hopefully a successor can take them out. And seeing as the Padres are only a half game behind them now after doing some serious streaking, maybe it'll come sooner than we think.

Coming Tomorrow- Aaron Judge has 9 home runs, but this guy has 8. And he's no slouch either.

Division Series' Day 6: How to Tie [and How Not To]

 

We're talking about two teams that started off an NLDS 0-2 and needed to win their way back to a tie or a victory. One of them did it. The other couldn't. 

It shouldn't be that shocking that the tighter matchup of these division series's is the divisional one. The Cubs and Brewers have been going back and forth all season. The Cubs had the division in the first half, then Milwaukee came blazing ahead and became a truly fantastic team to take the 1 seed. They won the first two games, and somehow the Cubs were able to take down not only Quinn Priester but Freddy Peralta, one of the toughest pitchers in the majors this year. Ian Happ's three-run bomb silenced any chance of an easy waltz to the NLCS for the Brewers, and the Cubs' pitching, including an excellent start by Matthew Boyd [his second strong postseason in a row] and some great 'pen work by Daniel Palencia and Drew Pomeranz, quieted a truly tough lineup. The extra homers from Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch, off Robert Gasser, were enough to cut out the tension for Cubs fans. Though I do think the umps screwed over Carson Kelly. The ABS system's gonna be nice, but how are we gonna hold them accountable for saying a home run's a foul.

It really speaks to how unpredictable this season has been that the two NLDSs to go all five games were Tigers-Mariners and Cubs-Brewers. The Dodgers and Jays were quicker, but the more fun teams took the whole week. 

While I was able to get through this season without the Astros ruining my playoff year, there is still the matter of just how well the Dodgers have continued to play in October. There are specific players, like Teoscar Hernandez, Kiké Hernandez, Max Muncy and Blake Snell now, who will do next to nothing during the regular season, make the postseason roster and become amazing. Kiké Hernandez may be one of the best October performers ever, which shouldn't cancel out his .200 average during the regular season but it's still gotten this team two rings. Tonight, all the Dodgers needed to win was a bases-loaded walk and a bases-loaded pitcher error. There were no traditional RBIs. In a series where the Dodgers have rallied late on multiple occasions, it just took Andy Pages landing a ball in the right place and that was it. Yet another NLCS, and a chance at a second World Series. It's not set in stone yet, as either NL Central team could really chase them, but with this series they've finally made up for their numerous regular season shortcomings...which is maybe a clue that the expanded postseason gives lower seeds an unfair advantage. 

I mean, once again the Phillies got a first-round bye and couldn't save the momentum. They've gotten kicked out in the 2nd round with teams way better than the ones that made NLCSs, and it's because this playoff schematic doesn't always help a great team stay great. Unless you're somebody like the Dodgers or something, the first round by is gonna slow you down, and the Phils did not show up much in this series at all. Harper, Turner and Bohm were nowhere to be found. Schwarber hit two bombs but not when it counted. Castellanos was somewhat helpful here and there but a defensive liability. Harrison Bader looked good but that injury really killed us. And ultimately, Orion Kerkering could not handle this moment, and panicked in a moment where another pitcher [possibly even Luzardo] could have had the reflexes to send the game to a 12th inning. But it shouldn't have come down to him in the first place because the Phils should have just outhit a team that was practically standing in place. 

That may have been our last shot. A lot of people are leaving, the remaining guys didn't all step up this year, and Harper's leaving his peak. I don't know if we compete next year. The Mets, Braves and Marlins will all have better teams, and I don't know if we will. We could have had something this year, and we simply chose not to. 

Game 5 of the ALDS tomorrow in Seattle. With both my teams gone I'm ride or die for the Mariners. 

Perhaps Overspending Has Its Downsides

 

The Yankees and Dodgers both spent the offseason giving tons of money to free agents from all over in order to load their teams with enough talent to coast to the end again. It got to a point, especially with the Dodgers, that it was verging on excessive. Ryan Brasier, one of the best relievers of the 2024 season for the Dodgers, was cut in order to make room for Kirby Yates, which has to be an awful ego blow. And yes, that is a way to win games, but it also sends the message that buying talent is more valuable than growing talent, which, considering how many Rookie of the Year winners have come from these two teams, is kind of odd.

So it's been refreshing that some of the Yankees and Dodgers' best performers right now are the ones they didn't overpay, at least not yet.

Andy Pages has already gotten some publicity for his leading of the Dodgers charts so far. There were a lot of social media postings consisting of 'imagine paying hundreds of millions for Roki Sasaki only for him to be less valuable than a second year on the standard contract line? Pages's 2024 come-up was a little lackluster, hitting .248 in 116 games with 13 homers, but he did win a World Series as a regular outfielder for the Dodgers. He doesn't just walk backwards into that, he's been an organizational gem for years, and now he's earned playing everyday. This season he's gotten to continue starting, and as such he's been having a wonderful start. In 32 games he's hitting .277 with 31 hits, 14 RBIs and 6 homers. He's also much better defensively, and has been responsible for some great plays out there. 

Until Shohei Ohtani sped ahead this weekend, Pages was the Dodgers' WAR leader. That was kinda insane. Mookie Betts is playing well, Yamamoto's off to a fantastic start, Freeman's hitting, but none of them caught Pages in April. Things have evened out slightly, yes, but even tonight I've heard Pages's name just on the defensive side. This guy might be turning into a crucial member of this team, and that'd honestly help more than just buying a centerfielder. You buy somebody like Michael Conforto, and figure he does his thing until someone homegrown can ensure you don't have to keep starting him. And that's what may happen, especially considering that Tommy Edman could play LF if Kim keeps it up at 2nd. 

Trent Grisham's success, meanwhile, is even more random. Grisham came over with Juan Soto, and while Soto was the big takeaway, Grisham's Padres numbers gave us hope for a really cool extra outfield bat. Last year, Grisham hit .190 with 9 homers in 76 games. It was not a very helpful year. So Soto leaves, Verdugo leaves, and we're expecting a Dominguez-Bellinger-Judge OF....and then, suddenly, Grisham starts to really figure out hitting in New York. So far he has a .298 average, 17 RBIs and 9 homers. To give you an idea, that's as many as he hit in 2024, and it's more than half of his previous full season HR total. Maybe it's the torpedo bats, maybe it's age and maturity, maybe it's something more arbitrary than that, but Trent Grisham may have turned out to be the key piece of the Soto deal for the Yankees. How about that?

The only upsetting part of that is that because Grisham's basically playing every day in center, and because they're paying Bellinger starter money, that doesn't leave much room for Jasson Dominguez. Which means, for the second year running, Aaron Boone is completely wasting Dominguez's development. Last year he kept him in the minors despite cries to bring him up because of the 'the right person to get the innings is getting the innings' bullshit. And now that Dominguez is up and playing well, we can't even play him everyday because the team's hands are tied with Bellinger. And it's not like Bellinger's playing badly per se, but I think Dominguez is playing better. So in this case, despite the guy making the standard contract getting glory in Grisham, another guy making the minimum is getting screwed, and it's a guy you do not want to fumble. All of this about Baltimore ruining Jackson Holliday- dude's heating up and he has room to. Quiet about that. If the Yankees ruin Jasson Dominguez, the surest thing baseball's had since Harper, everyone involved needs to lose their jobs.

Both the Yankees and the Dodgers look to continue dominating, even with their guys making tons of money [Judge and Ohtani especially]. But allowing for the more unsung guys to succeed is why people will ultimately care about these teams' success if they do go all the way. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of people that got swapped around in Juan Soto deals...bet the Padres wish they still had this guy..

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Dodgers

 

If you're gonna have one of the most humiliating losses in franchise history, it had better be at the hands of a good team. And the 2024 Dodgers, let it not be forgotten, were a very, very good team. One of the most terrifying hearts of an order in recent memory, a great bullpen, a rotation that somehow stuck itself together by September, and some of the most dramatic hero moments you could ask for. Freddie Freeman walking off in Game 1 is all you could have asked for. He's already a Hall of Famer, he's already a Dodgers hero, he's already a World Series winner, and he's already one of the most beloved MLB figures still active, but this was another big piece for the wall at home. I had to make another custom of him for this year, to commemorate his dominant World Series performance, even after so many setbacks. You cannot help but respect that.

Here's how strong the 2024 Dodgers' bullpen was: it was able to withstand the primary closing option hitting a wall and getting injured. Evan Phillips went into this year as RP1, saved 18 games, yet struggled mightily compared to his prior progress. His 3.62 ERA and -0.6 WAR indicate a season derailed by a May injury that he couldn't completely come back from. His ERA was 0.66 before the injury, and then the earned runs kept piling up throughout year, despite a rebound in August. Phillips, for the first time since taking the ninth, had a human year, hence his middle relief role in the playoffs.

2025 Prediction: Eventually becomes a more reliable closer again, but it doesn't happen overnight.

Blake Treinen, meanwhile, made a triumphant return to the Dodgers' pen after missing essentially two straight seasons. He was stellar in both 2020 and 2021, but that did its damage and made it so he couldn't return til this year. Unsurprisingly, Treinen's 2024 was pretty solid, as in 50 games he had a 1.93 ERA, a 7-3 record and 56 Ks. During the postseason he went 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 8 Ks in 9 appearances, saving three games. Nobody had really thought of Treinen as a particularly great closer since 2018, but this was the kind of stuff LA could rest their season on, and he delivered.

2025 Prediction: Something comparatively underwhelming. But it'll be for the Dodgers so he'll get somewhere with it.

The transitional closer in between Evan Phillips and the deadline was longtime relief specialist Daniel Hudson, who'd outlasted his 2010-era battery-mate in Arizona, Ian Kennedy, in the majors. Hudson held a 3 ERA over 65 games, went 6-2 with 63 Ks, and saved 10 games. For a 37-year-old rounding what would be the last curve of his MLB career, that's excellent. His postseason was a little rockier, he had a 7.50 ERA in 7 appearances, but he got to finish his career with a winner, which is all every pitcher wants.

There were two fairly big rookie prospects that got a shot for the Dodgers this season. Andy Pages got the call as an OF piece after James Outman underperformed. Pages has been a long-heralded prospect for the Dodgers, and while he did hit .248 with 13 homers and 46 RBIs, his defense left a lot to be desired. Also underwhelming were his playoff stats, as he went 4-for-19 with 4 RBIs and 2 homers. He's 23, he's still young, it's not too worrying, but the book on him seems a tad inflated at the moment.

2025 Prediction: Something clicks in a way that it couldn't with Outman this year.

Additionally, River Ryan was one of many Dodgers starting prospects to be thrust into the MLB rotation this year. Though he was expected to bubble in triple-A this year, he got the call in late July and pitched 4 pretty strong major league games, with a 1.33 ERA and 18 strikeouts. His control, and his dominance, were almost unlike other pitchers his age, even in that same system. Inevitably, 4 games into his season he had some throwing issues, and would be out for the rest of the season, and probably 2025's, rehabbing from Tommy John. But the Dodgers still have high hopes for Ryan; they wouldn't have cut James Paxton to bring him up if they didn't.

2025 Prediction: No MLB action probably, but given who the team's getting back next year, it won't wound them tremendously.

The Dodgers had an extremely wise trade deadline, as two of their big moves, Tommy Edman and Jack Flaherty, were crucial in getting them that ring. They also swung Kevin Kiermaier for outfield depth, and while it became clear how far from his prime Kiermaier was, he still got to win his first World Series ring with this team. In 34 games he hit .203 with 12 hits and 8 RBIs. He only made 2 plate appearances during the playoffs, and neither were noteworthy.

2025 Prediction: Has something of a comeback year split between two teams.

And hidden beneath the Tommy Edman acquisition was the arrival of Michael Kopech, who set the league ablaze in 2018 before injuries limited him going forward. Kopech was mainly a bullpen guy for the White Sox so far this year, and not a particularly successful one. In 24 games with the Dodgers, Kopech became the team's secret weapon, and pushed into a gear not thought reachable. Kopech went 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA, 29 Ks and 6 saves down the stretch. Then, during the postseason, he had a 3 ERA in 10 games, with 10 strikeouts and a win. Again, that three-team trade with the Sox and Cardinals was perfect for the Dodgers, because they got two guys they couldn't have won this Series without.

2025 Prediction: I don't wanna be crass and say 'immediately gets hurt again', but that is his track record.

Coming Tomorrow- A lot of key members from an impressive but outshined Giants team.