Division Series' Conclusion: Two Different Types of Close Games

 

I watched...fourteen of fifteen innings of last night's Mariners-Tigers playoff game. That was honestly all I could take. Honestly, one of the best pitched games I'd ever seen. Literally every pitcher each team brought in was dominant. Both Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo were unbeatable in relief. Jack Flaherty got out of a ton of scrapes in extras. Both bullpens were tight; Bazardo, Melton, Munoz, Vest, all brilliant. 

But what infuriated me to the point of turning it off before the walk-off was the fact that literally any time there were runners in scoring position, someone capable of batting them in would get up and do absolutely nothing. The Tigers' guys were understandable because they're not known for power. But the Mariners' core could have ended the game at any time, and Raleigh, Arozarena, Rodriguez, Polanco, Suarez and Naylor were inconsolable, and had so many missed opportunities in extras. Yes, the bullpen was difficult, but...say, for instance, that Polanco DOESN'T end the game with a walk-off single. Then every missed chance those power guys had would look even worse. And everything the fans are saying about what should be done about the Yankees and Phillies who didn't hit would be repeated with some of those guys. 

But yes, the M's waited for a reliever they COULD hit off of, and Jorge Polanco cracked one off of Tommy Kahnle to end it...in the fifteenth. Now, the bad news is the M's have next to no pitching left, and have to start Bryce Miller tomorrow which, uh...didn't go too well in Game 4 to be honest. And its short rest. But the good news is that if the heart of the lineup shows up, the Mariners very well could get past this Jays team, and are in sight of their first-ever World Series berth. It may seem difficult, but it can happen. They just need to tap into what made them winners here. The ability to outlast the inevitable.

The Tigers will be back with a team that can hold onto momentum better next year. The fact that they managed to persist long enough to regain momentum in October is admirable. They need to learn from September, though, or else it'll stop them from the big prize.

As for the Brewers...well, they managed to not crater after starting the series 2-0 and seeing the Cubs tie it. Teams have fallen victim to that before. The Brewers, even in a bullpen game, stayed strong and shut down a fairly unpredictable Cubs lineup. You can boil it down to Jacob Misiorowski if you want but it's really not that simple- Megill, Uribe and especially Chad Patrick were just as integral.

And again, one of the heroes of this team was Andrew Vaughn, a guy who was too mediocre even for the White Sox, got pawned off for Aaron Civale, then suddenly found his swing in Milwaukee and usurped Rhys Hoskins for the starting 1B spot. Tonight his homer broke the tie and sealed the game [though Turang's later homer also helped]. That someone like Vaughn can be a success for a team like the Brewers is pretty exceptional, and proof that this system really has something going. 

The Brewers have again triumphed over Craig Counsell, which is pretty wild to think about. In an NLCS against the Dodgers, they may be a sneaky favorite to win regardless of the momentum the Dodgers have built over this playoff season [predictably]. The Dodgers have Ohtani, but the Brewers are even, amazing on defense, practically unhittable and have answers for everything. It may go all 7. 

The Cubs were a long shot to outlast the Brewers, but I admire that they got close. Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Tucker have proven themselves admirable October pieces, and I know the majority of them could help this team get back to October next year. I also think the bullpen was a big part of why they persisted, though it consisting mainly of 30somethings like Colin Rea, Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller does put its sustainability into question. I think the Cubs have enough to keep competing, and hopefully PCA figures out how to avoid that 2nd half crash out going forward.

Jays-M's tomorrow. Rooting for Seattle but honestly I could live with Toronto winning. 

The Code Red Redemption

 

The Brewers knew they would be going into 2024 without Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, two of the people that had made the team a contender in the early half of the decade. Freddy Peralta, tasked at leading the rotation now, was still a great arm, and a great strikeout artist, but he was nowhere near as reliable as the latter two guys. So the plan was to lead with Peralta, and pepper in some lower-risk options to fill out the rotation, mostly people they'd gotten like DL Hall, Joe Ross and Wade Miley, and hope that the lineup would do the rest of the work.

Well, looking at the rotation now it's incredible that we've gotten here from that. Hall and Miley got hurt in, like, April. Ross got hurt and thankfully decided to come back midseason rather than not at all, like usual. Peralta stayed consistent. And newer additions like Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas have added depth to what was looking like a straightforward pitching schematic.

The one thing nobody could have predicted, though? The rise of Colin Rea, who was slated for a swing role and still made the rotation AND has been one of the Brewers' best pitchers this year.

Rea I remember because he came up with the mid-2010s Padres. He was one of the guys who was stuck holding up the 2015 Padres when all the contracts didn't work. My favorite wild detail of Rea's Padres days is that at the 2016 trade deadline he was flipped to the Marlins in the deal that eventually brought Josh Naylor to San Diego. Rea makes one start with the Marlins, doesn't allow any runs and then immediately gets injured, then because he's probably out for the season the Marlins trade him back to the Padres for one of the initially involved players, a pitching prospect named Luis Castillo. Rea bobs along the minors for a while, gets a few shots, doesn't achieve success, then pitches in Japan and gets his mojo back. Last year the Brewers gave him another chance and he had a 4.55 ERA in 26 games. Hence keeping him around as a swingman.

That is...a hell of a way to spend a decade. Which is why it's wild to me that it's finally paid off for Rea, affectionally known by fans as 'Code Red'. In 22 appearances this year, Rea has a 3.38 ERA, a 10-3 record and 99 strikeouts. It is consistency that even Freddy Peralta, who's more lethal, hasn't reached. Rea isn't flashy, but what he is is efficient, and he's been a very consistent force of good for the Brewers, who now have finally built a pretty strong rotation. Civale and Montas haven't been perfect, but they're definitely getting there. And Tobias Myers is a really strong rookie performer that could be a long term piece for this team.

The Brewers have the potential to compete this year, and while they're really building something nice, this could be the last year for a while that they can snap up 1st and keep it for so long while keeping the competition at bay. The Pirates and Reds are gonna be good, and the Brewers' biggest assets might be leaving their peaks. This season they need to deliver, because who knows the next time the opportunity will be available. 

Coming Tomorrow- I thought he was done being relevant when the Nats cut him. Evidently I was wrong.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Brewers

 

The 2023 Brewers are proof that a great team can't get very far if nobody decides to hit.

This Brewers team was well-managed, clearly. The pitching was excellent, as there were enough depth options to ensure rotation held strong when Woodruff got injured. The defense was stellar, with newcomers like Joey Wiemer, Brice Turang, Blake Perkins, Sal Frelick and Andruw Monasterio providing an improved defensive edge to this team. But nobody hit. No matter what they tried, no matter who they brought up, it just couldn't get going. Even bringing in Mark Canha and Carlos Santana worked for maybe a month, only for the Diamondbacks, who CAN hit, to absolutely smoke them in the wild card series. The plan is to go for a 'new coach/new approach' season with Pat Murphy [who, and I'm just gonna take a stab in the dark here, may or may not have some Irish heritage], and hopefully that, along with recently-locked-up mega-prospect Jackson Chourio, helps the Brewers, already a perennial playoff team, go bigger. Knowing the Cubs and Reds are creeping up, it's not a guarantee.

The biggest example of the hitting failing this team was Garrett Mitchell, one of the few young players to actually hit from the start. Mitchell, who came up in mid-2022, impressed through 16 games, hitting .259 with 15 hits, 6 RBIs and 3 homers. Then he got hurt and didn't come back til there were three games left in the season, commonly known as the 'Rip Van Winkle' tract. By that point, the outfield looked a hell of a lot different, and Mitchell didn't even factor into the playoff picture for the Brewers.

2024 Prediction: There is the tiniest chance that the Brewers give up on Mitchell like the Braves gave up on Wright and Soroka, especially considering that Wiemer and Frelick might have starting positions next year, and Jackson Chourio might be in the cards for an outfield position in the next year or so. However, there's also a chance that the Brewers know, rightfully, that Mitchell's the more well-rounded option in center and keep him as the starting man. If so, he'll more than make up for his 2023, and be one of the standouts of the Brewers' admittedly lower-key year.

Adrian Houser has been a 5th-string starter for the Brewers for the last few years, and this year was no exception. Houser did what you'd expect- went 8-5 with a 4.12 ERA, starting as many games, 21, as he did the previous year, and striking out 96. Some injuries, and some regime changes, kept him from playing as much of a role in this team as usual, but I don't think he did anything to really worry the Brewers. Although, as the last surviving prospect acquired in the Carlos Gomez deal, it's important that he sticks around.

2024 Prediction: Houser's gonna be a free agent in 2025. I think he's gonna have an excellent season that ups his value and makes other teams finally take notice.

Similar to Garrett Mitchell, Rowdy Tellez was handed a starting job at the start of the season, and could not live up to the hype. Last year, Tellez hit 35 home runs; this year, in 105 games, he hit only 13. Though not quite as infuriating as someone like Dan Vogelbach in New York, seeing Tellez completely fail at any sort of hitting was still an ego-hit for the Brewers, who did aim to excel at power hitting this year. Tellez's .215, 45-RBI downer of a year resulted in a non-tendering. He may be 28, but in power-hitter years that's closer to 34.

2024 Prediction: Someone picks him up on a lower-risk contract as a primary DH. He does better. 

As one of the few professional backup catchers in the MLB, Victor Caratini has become a go-to catcher for some of the best pitchers in the bigs, and has caught in three great markets since entering the league. Year 2 in Milwaukee was similar to his first, as behind William Contreras he hit .259 with 7 home runs and 25 RBIs in 62 games. He and Contreras together amounted to a pretty solid hitting platoon. 

2024 Prediction: Caratini is going to do exactly what he's done in the last few seasons, just in Houston. The only thing is unlike San Diego, or Milwaukee, or Chicago, I don't know if he's going to lock onto a go-to pitcher to team up with. And, as we've discussed, Yanier Diaz is really coming into his own.

The biggest surprise for the Brewers this year was the sudden rise of former Padres prospect Colin Rea, who, thanks to injuries to Woodruff, Lauer and Miley, was given a ton of starting opportunities this year, his first since 2020, and his first prolonged starting experience since 2016 in San Diego [before becoming a fun fact as someone who was traded for Luis Castillo twice in three days]. Rea, now 32, impressed, throwing 110 Ks, with a 6-6 record and a 4.55 ERA. This was the fullest season Rea has pitched, and it was a welcome comeback from a guy who, in another universe, pitches into the postseason with the 2016 Marlins. 

2024 Prediction: As the Brewers are keeping him around and Woodruff, and possibly Burnes, is on the way out, expect Rea to play a strong role in this rotation, and continue his astonishing second act.

I did a lot of customs of the Brewers rookies this year, Wiemer and Frelick and Turang, and I didn't get to Andruw Monasterio, who came in midyear like an atom bomb and surprised a lot of people. Monasterio not only was excellent in the infield, but was good for some base running perks and hit 73 hits in 92 games. He's just a good, versatile infield piece, and he could do something for this team going forward.

2024 Prediction: I think, with Adames and Turang staying in the infield, Monasterio either finds a permanent position or acts as an Edmundo Sosa-esque utility backup. I'm not sure if he's a starting guy yet, but he could be soon.

One of the two big bat-aids the Brewers brought in midyear, aside from Mark Canha, was Carlos Santana, who was having an incredibly versatile season in Pittsburgh. Santana's second half was, well, not as good as his first, but he still could power-hit, with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs in 52 games. One of those home runs was Santana's 300th overall, which is a pretty big deal from a guy who was a onetime catching prospect in LA. 

2024 Prediction: The show goes on. El Oso will be 38 next year, and he's gonna shack up with somebody on a DH/corner role, and while I don't think it'll be anywhere close to first half 2023, it'll at least keep his brand going. 

And then for some reason the Brewers picked up Josh Donaldson. Why? We're still not sure. The Bringer of Rain definitively showed how depleted his skillset had become with 2/3rds of a season in the Bronx, despite only hitting home runs whenever I showed up. The Brewers thought they could get something out of him at this stage. In 17 games, the former MVP hit .169 with 11 RBIs and 3 home runs.

2024 Prediction: The man finally decides to call it a career. Whether or not this happens after an unsuccessful minor league contract is entirely up to him. 

Coming Tomorrow- Oh happy day, a non-competitive Cardinals team.