Red Above Water

 

Meanwhile, in the division where every team is good, the Reds, who are just a game over .500, are a fourth place team. 24 wins may be enough for 1st place in other divisions, but in a division where the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates are also there, and the Cardinals can go on a random streak denoted by unnecessary shiftlessness, it gets the Reds to fourth and that's it.

I think the Reds honestly should be lucky they're still above .500, considering that The Thing That Always Happens to the Reds has happened again. That's right, this frigging rotation can't keep from mishaps for five seconds. Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson are out, despite 2026 being long-awaited returns for them both, Hunter Greene isn't back til July, Andrew Abbott technically isn't hurt but is certainly throwing like the 2025 workload's caught up to him, and once again we're resorting to failsafe measures for that fifth spot. Right now Chris Paddack has it, they snagged him from Miami after that didn't work, and he was decent enough in his first start, only allowing 2 runs in 5 innings. But...this rotation was built to not have to resort to Chris Paddack. You build a team around Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Williamson, Lowder and Burns, and then suddenly they all keep getting hurt. It didn't happen to this extent last year, but at least last year they still had Nick Martinez as a backup. Now he's a Plan A measure in Tampa. And as a reminder, the current failsafes if THIS rotation doesn't work are either Chase Petty, who was okay in a 2026 start, and Julian Aguiar, who...apparently is healthy again. We'll see I guess. 

Luckily Burns, Abbott and Singer have been enough of a backbone so far, and the bullpen's pretty excellent all-around, save for Tony Santillan's post-2025 hangover. But then behind that, most of the lineup isn't doing anything. Sal Stewart was great in April but quiet now. Friedl's not hitting, and neither is Will Benson, meaning a surprise J.J. Bleday comeback has been lifting the outfield. Stephenson's once again struggling, and without Trevvy he's all they've got. At the very least the initial Reds backbone is re-emerging, as Spencer Steer's hitting .263 with 7 homers and 17 RBIs, and Matt McLain's suddenly taking off with 5 homers and 19 RBIs.

And then there's Elly de la Cruz, still one of the most exciting players in the game. He's flirting with .300, got 10 homers and 30 RBIs, already stole 9 bases, has as many as 15 hits more than any other Red, and lives for every moment in the spotlight. Elly is like what would happen if Jazz Chisholm could back up his swagger with results. I knew the team would ultimately be built around this guy, and he's very much worth it, with an .884 OPS already. He looks like he's on track for another strong season, and hopefully this can lift the Reds.

As flawed as the Reds are right now, the injury overhead gives them the potential to bounce back eventually. The division's designed for these sorts of ebbs and flows, and the Reds have too much strength to really stay a lower-level competitor this year. I look forward to seeing what this team looks like in another few weeks, and how that compares to the rest of the division. 

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who's pitched everywhere since leaving Cleveland, and now finally seems to have regained his mojo. 

CINconsistency

 

The NL Central has the energy of a frigging abacus. The top and the bottom team stays the same, but the ones in the middle keep flailing about in all directions. The Cardinals, Reds and Brewers have all ebbed and flowed frequently this season, with all three bouncing around the middle positions. It is equal parts impressive and infuriating. This weekend the Cardinals and Reds played each other, and as you might expect it was relatively even. The Cards took two, then the Reds responded with a gem courtesy of Andrew Abbott, who just has to stay healthy and maybe will soak up some of Paul Skenes's Cy Young votes. 

In a division of sporadic teams, the Reds might be the most sporadic thought. They will follow a stretch where they look unbeatable with a stretch where they lose 4 and head to fourth place. A lot like the Twins, but on a much smaller scale, the Reds will never let something impressive go without an immediate drawback. Just look at Elly de la Cruz, who has 17 homers, 21 steals and 52 RBIs yet strikes out far too much to be taken seriously as an MVP candidate. Clearly de la Cruz is the face of this team, but he's not as immaculate as prime Acuña. He's got flaws, like so many other players, and only so many big games can mask that. 

This team also just has so many players who will get off to a great start and immediately get hurt. Every year. Once again, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft are missing time, as is Brandon Williamson. At the very least, the Reds have prepared a little more so they're not completely without backup plans as starters start going down, but so far Carson Spiers, Chase Petty and Wade Miley have failed as the fifth option. Meaning they have to go with mega-prospect Chase Burns in a forthcoming start against the Yankees. If it works, they've got a 5th option that works, one that looks MLB-ready. But again, there's so many options that didn't, and even more like Williamson, Julian Aguiar and Rhett Lowder, who weren't even healthy enough to factor into this season to begin with. You think they've finally happened upon a working formula and then even that sinks. So I'm counting on Burns to at least add some stability, because if not then I'll just choose to believe that this rotation is cursed.

Something that's been frustrating me about this team has been how many trusted starters are not being trusted at their own positions anymore. The Reds are afraid to play Gavin Lux at second, they're afraid to start Tyler Stephenson at catcher, and they're still not sure about where they're supposed to play McLain or Steer. This is not a great defensive team, and only Steer is a true above-average fielder right now. And even then you have defensive subs, like Santiago Espinal and Will Benson, that aren't very good either. 

I'm trying to give this team the benefit of the doubt, but the same factors are failing them, even with Francona's help. Unless something turns around we're gonna be cycling through this several more times and no one will be any wiser.

Coming Tonight: Arguably a future Hall of Famer, and someone who may have an impact on the big picture of this season before he knows it. 

Elly & Back

 

There's only a few players that you can routinely rely on to do something incredible every few days. Y'know, Trout, Soto, Betts, Ohtani, occasionally Julio. And I think we can handily add Elly de la Cruz to that list, because I feel like whenever he hits for power, steals bases, or hits an inside-the-parker, I hear about it. 

That said, it's been odd seeing de la Cruz fit into this Reds team. I think as they developed this current youth movement they were building things around him, because you saw great players with less-starry names like Spencer Steer and Matt McLain take hold of the team last year, and you've already seen the young pitchers like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott make names for themselves. But I felt like, last year, there wasn't any real role for de la Cruz to play, as if he was sort of the mascot. Y'know, steal some bases, do some damage, but...the lack of solid defense prevented him from really having a specified role on the team. He had games at 2nd and short, and off the bench, and was used as a utility bat. Which I was not expecting from a top prospect.

But now I feel like, since de la Cruz has been given shortstop fully [due to the temporary loss of McLain], he's had more footing on this team, and has been able to be its central figure more regularly. So far this year he has 6 RBIs and 6 steals, 12 hits and a .293 record. His flaws lie in his strikeout numbers and his defense, which is still imperfect, but he's been one of the main reasons why the Reds have gotten off to a strong start. With McLain hurt, and Friedl out for a little while as well, having Elly de la Cruz surging and powering the team is a very good thing, and hopefully proves he can be a reliable force for this team.

Despite a 6-5 record and a fourth place position, the Reds are still working with a lot this year. Hunter Greene and Frankie Montas are off to great starts. Steer, Fraley and Stephenson are working at the plate and providing a solid core. Stuart Fairchild's off to a nice start off the bench [a lot like last year, actually]. There are issues that can be straightened out, like the bullpen and the corners, but this Reds team feels a lot more confident than last year, and has the pieces to make something happen this year.

Coming Tomorrow- My least favorite player in baseball, but at the very least it's because he's so damned good all the time.

Red Dawn

 I just would like to remind you all that in 2022, absolutely none of Matt McLain, Elly de la Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott, Levi Stoudt, Brandon Williamson or Will Benson were on the Reds' active roster. And now they've all taken over this team. And if there's any team in baseball that was due for its farm system to completely reinherit the narrative, it is the Cincinnati Reds.

And so here we are. Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson are all looking at Rookie of the Year votes, with Abbott and McLain looking like fair bets for the final round. And Elly de la Cruz, who began the year as one of the most sought-after rookies in the game, and now that he's here has made things all the more interesting.

It's nice that we've had this slow trickle of OMG prospects that light up the minors and do the same to the big leagues. 2022 had both Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez, who did everything they set out to do and became MLB-wide names because of it. This year already began with Anthony Volpe, who, at the very least, steals bases like it's his god-given right. And now we have Elly, who's got 33 RBIs, 11 homers and 22 steals in 69 games. And when he does something, like have a multiple RBI game or make a blazing throw to catch Corbin Carroll at home or run so fast he makes a home plate tag obsolete, everybody hears about it. Elly de la Cruz is one of those 'must see TV' type athletes, descended from Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez and Derek Jeter. And even if he's only hitting .248 so far, and is definitely doing more of the talking than his stats, his presence in Cincinnati has been solidified. 

What's very funny about Elly is that there's someone in his exact division that I'd say is his equal on a number of levels, and that's Oneil Cruz. Oneil, like Elly, is a tall-ass shortstop; Oneil is 6'7, Elly is 6'5. They're both Dominican, both speedy, and both deadly when given the right opportunity. When Oneil went down early in the season, I was worried that a lot of the fun factor of him would be gone, and while I was sort of right in regards to the rest of Pittsburgh's season, Elly fills that void very well. It will be interesting to see Reds-Pirates games next year, as these two going against each other should be fun to watch. 

The Reds stumbled a little, and the Brewers zipping ahead has not helped them, but getting Hunter Greene back, early struggles notwithstanding, gives them slightly firmer footing heading into the last month of the season. This series with the D-Backs has left them 1.5 games back from the last wild card spot, and appropriately their next series is with the Giants, who is their nearest rival for said spot, so they'll need to hold onto whatever momentum they can muster if they want to compete at all this year.

It's fantastic that the Reds were a 1st place team at all this year. With the converging number of wild card teams, it's no longer guaranteed that they're playoff-bound, but it definitely confirms that this rebuild may not be as dire of a process as previously thought.

Coming Tomorrow- It's the strangest thing for non-baseball people, if you tell them this guy gets called 'the big dumper' and it's a compliment.

The Reds Level Up

 

In the past month, the Reds, who have already looked pretty different going into 2023, have gone through even more drastic changes. Currently on the Major League squad are the entirety of Brandon Williamson, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and, yes, Elly de la Cruz. You can make the argument that these reinforcements wouldn't have come about if the team wasn't so injury-prone right now, losing Nick Lodolo, T.J. Friedl, Nick Senzel and Wil Myers to the IL. But at the same time, if Jose Barrero wasn't gonna be the answer, save for an errant grand slam last week, then Elly de la Cruz was gonna get the call eventually. 

And so here we are. The Reds' current infield is Steer-India-McLain-Elly, and the top aces are Greene and Abbott. Welcome to the future, Reds fans.

What makes this sudden reclamation by the Reds' youth movement so satisfying is the fact that it seems to be emerging in addition to the number of pieces that are already working and may just be injured. It's not like the Tigers, where they rip through so many great prospects that they reach the back of the fridge and have to start Tyler Alexander. The Reds are without Lodolo, Connor Overton, Justin Dunn and Vladimir Gutierrez, and yet they just have Williamson and Abbott hanging there in the minors, ready to do some MLB work. Williamson has admittedly been shaky in his first 5 starts, but he's struck out 21 and seems to be a solid innings-eater. Abbott was insanely impressive in his debut, and looks to build off of that. 

And at the same time you still have Hunter Greene healthy, he's sitting on 88 Ks and a 3.92 ERA. I think like Billy Hamilton less than a decade ago, Hunter Greene is gonna be one of those people that's so good at what he does that you just kinda have to watch him for a bit and let him be incredible. He throws smoke and keeps the rotation together, he's looking like a vet in only his second season, 

And then you have Elly de la Cruz, whose first two games were the stuff of MLB folklore, already hitting like a machine upon MLB pitching [and the Dodgers, no less], and cracking a home run the other night to secure the victory over one of the best teams in the majors. It's very clear why Reds fans are so excited about this guy, because he's an incredible hitter who completely annihilates the ball, and could be at this for years in Cincinnati. Granted, his third game yesterday was a little quieter, but he's still hitting insanely well at the start of his career, and making the fans extremely happy.

The Reds right now are 29-34, 5 games behind the Brewers and firmly in third place, in front of the Cubs and Cardinals. For the Reds to be ahead of the Cardinals in the standings after 2 months, yes a lot of things had to happen, but it's an outcome I'm pleasantly surprised by. I don't know if this team will make anything of this season past regulation, but all of these new pieces are fitting perfectly into place, and this could make the Reds a favorite going forward, which would be awesome.

Coming Tonight: An absolute RBI machine coming from a team whose sole purpose this year seems to be scoring a shit-ton of runs.