Busch Whacked

 

I continue to marvel at the Cubs' lineup. It continues to be a collection of like-minded, overpowering offensive threats that always find a way to come together and embarrass you. The Brewers may be the better team, and may continue to be the better team, but I will not count this Cubs team out.

First of all, they have a guy who's probably winning the MVP this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong heard all the mess about his slump last year, or about his high WAR, low production stuff, and he sprung into action, with a 27-homer season, 30 steals, 72 RBIs, the potential for 30-30 with the other 30 also being a definite possibility, and some of the most incredible throws and plays in center. This man is playing eye-popping baseball and ascending to the dominance the Cubs knew he'd get to. 

And it's not like it's just him, pretty much everybody is hitting. Both catchers are hitting, Kelly with some solid .265, 42 RBI work with great defense, and Amaya with some cheesy power in there too. Swanson's HR streak has slowed down but he's still got 17 and 63 RBIs. Hoerner is powering back up again, he's hitting .260 with 55 RBIs and 18 steals. Bregman has 13 homers and 54 RBIs, and even if it's not his best, he's still great at third. Michael Busch, though down from last year, still has 63 RBIs. Ian Happ's continued his solid 2020s run and his 20 homers. Seiya Suzuki has another 20-homer year, with 67 RBIs. Even Michael Conforto is quietly having a comeback year as a DH/bench bat, with 9 homers and 26 RBIs. And then you've got this Pedro Ramirez kid, who's great defensively, great on the base paths, and hits .300. And he's the bit player in place of Matt Shaw. That's a nice bit player to have, man. 

The thing that keeps this team grounded is the pitching, and even that's improved. Kevin Gausman did well in his first Chicago start, David Peterson's 3-1 and slowly getting his groove back in different blue pinstripes, Boyd's dominant again with an 8-1 record and a 3.50 ERA, and even Imanaga's figured his stuff out again. The hope is Clay Holmes comes around, because his comeback start was shakier than it needed to be. These guys also technically need to figure out who's gonna close games, because right now it's Jacob Webb, and that's RP1 more than anything. If Daniel Palencia would stay healthy for more than 5 seconds, I'd feel better about him, but he's hurt again. With Holmes at least you have an all-star closer, but you want him starting. It's that or going with Assad or Braxton Garrett. Still time to work it out, or for Palencia to come back, but it's still worrying.

As it stands, the Cubs have the first wild card spot, and I definitely think they have enough momentum to at least hang onto a wild card berth. The Phils are also in the mix, but they're way shakier. I see the Cubs keeping their padded lead over St. Louis and continuing their August dominance. I'm not sure if this year will end any differently than last year, but at least they've got a working model and can stick to it.

Coming Tomorrow- A starter for a team that really, REALLY wants to make the playoffs this year, huh?

Busch vs. Miller

 

Earlier today, I was talking about the fall of the Tigers, and how they're in danger of someone like the Guardians catching up to them. The Cubs, like the Tigers, have gone through the majority of this season without major competition. The Cardinals did threaten to for a little, but eventually arc'd back down. Same with the Reds.

However...right now the Cubs are in the most danger of being lapped that they've had all season. And it's a familiar time for the Cubs to lose momentum. It's happened around July and August the last couple years. And it's not as if the Cubs have really lost that much momentum. They're still 62-43, and are consistent enough to stay well above .500. The majority of the pieces that made this team a league talent, like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matthew Boyd, Nico Hoerner, Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch, are still having great seasons and have shown no signs of slowing down. 

The issue...is not that the Cubs haven't been good. But since mid-June, the Brewers have been better.

Since June 19th, the Brewers have only lost 8 games. In that time period they had two four-game winning streaks and an 11-game winning streak. They got Brandon Woodruff back, doubled down on the Miz, committed to Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, slid in Andrew Vaughn to cover for Rhys Hoskins [which has somehow worked perfectly], and are now riding a wonderful Jackson Chourio hitting streak. Even if the Cubs did...marginally better than they've been doing, I don't know if they'd top this Brewers run. It's been pretty fantastic. And ultimately, it is once again the central Craig Counsell conundrum of 'does he get further by simply staying where he was?'

I do think the Cubs have enough that they can still contend with Milwaukee, especially as they face off this week for the division. Michael Busch, after breaking out last year, has managed some surprising staying power in Chicago, and has become a really cool corner infield piece. He's got 20 homers and 60 RBIs, and he's hitting .275. Meanwhile, PCA is just three homers and a steal away from his first 30-30 season, and the season's young enough that he could theoretically try for 40-40. Matthew Boyd has been a worthy presence in the absence of Justin Steele, and while he's been inconsistent this year, Ben Brown has been capable of some excellent stuff. And recently Matt Shaw has been heating up, as since the ASG break he's been hitting .444 with 10 RBIs and 4 homers. 

There's enough going on with this team, all throughout, that I don't see the drop-off that happened the last few years happening here. This is a better team, and a team I see breaking through the playoff threshold. The trouble is the Brewers are also looking like a playoff team, and while the Cubs want to break their drought, the Brewers want to win a playoff series for the first time in years. So it's gonna be very bloodthirsty down the stretch.

Coming Tomorrow- A well-respected catcher for a first place team that's also trying to stay afloat. This one I feel a lot less bad for.

Bear Witness

 

After looking impressive through their first month and a half of MLB play, the 2024 Chicago Cubs completely hit a wall. And thus, they've spent the last month or so just completely falling apart. Which honestly, even if it's a well timed skid by an overconfident club, is kinda hard to watch.

Look, even at their current state, the Cubs began this season with an amazing amount of hubris. They managed to get Craig Counsell to come over, from their chief divisional rival, and sign a contract to manage there for the foreseeable future. Forget screwing over David Ross. They got a great manager, and the fans were really impressed. Then they re-sign Cody Bellinger, get Shota Imanaga, who's still excellent, and wrangled Hector Neris over and prevented the Yankees from being stuck with him when he inevitably started tanking in the ninth again. They go into the 2024 season as overwhelming favorites, even over the Reds and Brewers, solely because they have the money to get people and the organizational depth to build off it.

And then the season starts and lol Cubs.

It's not without a conscious effort to not suck. The Cubs' pitching is very good, but saddled with terrible luck. Justin Steele has his ERA under 4, but he's still 0-3 and nowhere near his 2023 self. Kyle Hendricks will have amazing starts, as he just did, and also many terrible starts. Then, just when Ben Brown figures out how to start, he gets hurt. I'll give the Cubs credit for making Hayden Wesneski and Drew Smyly, and Luke Little, into halfway decent bullpen options.

But...the strong, varied offensive core of this Cubs team just hasn't shown up. Dansby Swanson, one of the 2023 standouts, is having a weaker year, he's only hitting .214. Nico Hoerner's only hitting .243. Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger are in the .260s, nowhere near their highs. The only Cubs hitter with an OPS over .800 is...former Dodgers prospect Michael Busch, who has somehow become the Cubs' first baseman and is surprisingly hitting really damned well. I mean, in all actuality he's hitting as well as Suzuki and Bellinger, but his accuracy and consistency has given him the edge. He's had less at-bats than his contemporaries and more success in those at-bats. It's also just fun that he's suddenly come up and become a major factor in this Cubs team. A lot like Patrick Wisdom in 2021, though...Wisdom, like other establishment Cubs, isn't doing much at all.

It's really just Busch and Ian Happ who have WARs higher than 1.0, and with Happ it's because of his defense probably. So that's a lot of people who are here, and are healthy, and just aren't hitting. Even Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was hitting initially, has cooled down and isn't doing a ton.

The Cubs are currently in fourth place, and though they've improved slightly, they need to unstick themselves from the mud and get back to what they were doing before if they have any hope of looking intimidating at all this year. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of the few starters in Texas that hasn't gotten hurt yet.