Adventures in Massive Gaping Holes

 

Once again this year, some of the biggest division battles will be fought in the East. In the AL East, the Orioles and Red Sox will both be trying to dethrone the Yankees at the top, while in the NL East, the Phillies and Mets will be battling it out against the Braves. The key is tracking progression. The Phillies didn't do much this offseason and are getting older, while the Mets did everything and have so many young stars taking over. The Red Sox went all in on a rebuild, and the O's still have young guys ready to go. 

So it helps, in order to keep up, to not have massive vacancies in comparison to previous years. Injury-related or not. And so while they haven't been downgraded completely, this might be a tougher year for both the Yankees and the Braves. Even if one of the Braves' big vacancies is kinda the Yanks' fault.

The Yankees made a World Series last year. They talk about it a lot. But two of the reasons why they made it there, Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto, will not be playing for the Yankees this year. Cole is injured, Soto's in Queens. And Giancarlo Stanton, additionally, will be out for a while. And so this team has to convince the league it's still a force even if they proved last year that Soto was one of the few people actually improving things last fall. Getting Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams does help. Bellinger's been amazing in camp, Williams is a surefire closer, Goldy is steady and also leaves the door open for Rice at some point. But the values have shifted. It's no longer 'Judge and Soto at everyone's throats', it's a little more spread out. I think this could work, ultimately, but the whole team needs to step up if it wants to get anywhere close to where they got last year.

And the biggest factor is going to be the rotation. Carlos Rodon and Max Fried have both been quoted in saying they'll step up in Cole's absence, and I believe them. Rodon is a fantastic big game pitcher who's thrived in the 2 spot in New York and has been ramping up for another excellent year. Fried thrived at the top of the rotation in Atlanta but was also used better behind bigger names. I think he can ultimately be an ace-type for us, especially if he continues his excellent run, but it's gonna be a matter of if the specter of Cole, and Cortes, chases us. Beyond those two, there's Schmidt, who's hurt, Gil, who's probably missing some time, and Stroman, who's still not a fit for Yankee Stadium. And beyond them, you may have to go with Will Warren or potentially Clayton Beeter. It could all fall into place but there's some worrying details.

The Braves, meanwhile, are without Fried, they've lost Charlie Morton and Travis d'Arnaud in free agency, they're still without Ronald Acuna, and they may be without Jurickson Profar and Sean Murphy for a bit. You look around and despite the presence of Riley, Albies, Sale and Ozuna on this team, you're seeing a drop-off. The outfield going into the season will be Michael Harris, Bryan de la Cruz and Jarred Kelenic. Harris is the one I'm not worried about, he's still a very trustworthy outfield bat with a lot of perks. But Kelenic still hasn't had the overpowering season prospectors raved about, and de la Cruz was brought on to essentially back up Profar. The Pirates expected a lot from de la Cruz at the deadline, and he did not deliver. Hence feeling like a downgrade here. This could still work, but without the excellence across the board guys like Orlando Arcia are standing out more. The team is also going to have to start Drake Baldwin at catcher to open the season, which is a risk that could go either way. 

And like the Yankees, the Braves are working with a strong core at the top of the rotation, namely Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. Both Sale and Lopez do not have luck on their side, and will need to work hard to continue their 2024 successes, but Schwellenbach looks like the real deal. But beyond him, there's only question marks. Ian Anderson's back from surgery it seems, but will he provide anything? Same with Spencer Strider--is he still capable of his 2022-3 dominance? And will anything come of Grant Holmes, the AAA-lifer who the Braves still haven't figured out a solid use for? I wanna say there's more definite pieces than the Yankees' rotation right now, but will all these pieces stay healthy?

Both of these teams could compete without an issue, but there's enough question marks and potential issues that people aren't completely sold. I'd love for the Yankees to repeat, but it takes a lot more coming into line than, arguably, what got them to the World Series last year. 

Follow the Money Mike

 

The Braves and Mets, with three and a half weeks left to go, are dead even. A team that began the season with everyone, and a team that began the season a punchline, are tied in the wild card standings. The last month of the season will decide who gets the last playoff spot and gets to play a team that very well could be the Brewers in a wild card series. The stakes couldn't be higher. If the Mets lose, they managed to undo the goodwill of the entire fanbase by not making the next leap from novelty to runaway.

...whereas if the Braves lose a year after a monolithic regular season, they may never recover. If you have your best players under team control til the end of the decade, a Cy Young performance from a guy who's always been a bridesmaid his whole career, an 100-RBI season from a guy everybody wrote off, and two excellent seasons from starters who weren't even supposed to make the team, and you don't make the playoffs, then what are you even doing? 

Injuries have dulled the point of the Braves this year. Without Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider and Austin Riley, there's just not as much of a punch. Michael Harris is back, which is nice, and he does have 15 RBIs and 4 homers since coming back, but...he's not hitting for average. Orlando Arcia's season is a disappointment after last season's ASG campaign. Same with Sean Murphy, he's hitting around .200 and seems to just not be on this year. Matt Olson's got 25 home runs, which is nice, but last season he hit 54. And quite obviously Bryce Elder has struggled to find his 2023 mojo. 

Like, it is nice that the pitching, for the most part, has kept things moving, people like Sale, Fried, Lopez and Schwellenbach are keeping offenses down. But this offense can only do so much without its core intact. You have Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Ramon Laureano and Adam Duvall trying to contribute something and not really doing much. There's only two people on this team, active, with more than 50 RBIs and 20 home runs. And it's Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson. It can't just be on those guys to keep the offense going, this isn't New York.

The Braves are still favored to take the spot right now, because they're built better, and have better overall luck than the Mets. But I think if you asked your asked your average sports fan, they'd want the Braves to take the fall. They're do. The Mets sliding into their space would be a great underdog story, especially in a year where the Braves don't really deserve the glory. So with all these games left to play, there's no telling who'll be standing on the spot when the season ends, but if it is the Braves, they're gonna need to do a lot of lifting to prove themselves in a postseason of titans.

Coming Tomorrow- One of those players who I can never tell when he's gonna be back on. He was miserable the last two years, and now a competitor's using his hot streak to their advantage.

Two for the Money Mike

 

The Braves have won 81 games, have 7 starters with over 20 home runs, and three pitchers with 10+ wins and 100+ strikeouts. I'd say they have a chance.

The thing about the Braves is that they have a bunch of guys who've been good the whole year [Acuna, Olson, Strider, Elder, Albies, Arcia], and now we're seeing the ripples of people who've gotten better as we've gone on. Michael Harris started very slow and now is having a perfectly respectable sophomore season, hitting .282 with 39 RBIs, 17 steals and 11 home runs. He's also still an excellent defensive center fielder, so he's still as versatile as he was. It's odd that someone like Harris is a lower-tier lineup guy on a team like the Braves, but the fact that he's still doing incredibly even when the emphasis is more on the central power hitters proves how many Braves are truly killing it right now.

And just added to that list is Eddie Rosario, who's been especially hot recently. In August alone he's hitting .356 with 15 RBIs and 4 homers, bringing his current home run total to 20 and his current RBI total to 63. Rosario has been known for his cold spots but when he's hot, he's horrifying--you all remember how hot he got in October 2021. He's had a similar 2023, where he's been excellent some months and average in others, but it's building towards a relatively respectable overall year for the veteran outfield bat. Between Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, who's at least gonna leave here with a 25+ homer year, they're getting a lot out of guys whose contracts they thought were losses.

Even better, though Ozzie Albies will be out for a short while, both Vaughn Grissom and Nicky Lopez have been excellent at covering for him. Lopez is hitting .407 with 11 hits and 8 RBIs in 10 games since arriving in Atlanta. Grissom is hitting .282 with 7 RBIs in 22 games. I reckon this isn't the audition Grissom wanted for this year, since it's very similar to last year's opportunity and he's got not one but two other guys he's competing with [even if Shewmake's still in the minors]. So even despite that, the lineup is still pretty awesome. And with Max Fried back and healthy, as well as Jared Shuster being a decent enough fifth option, the rotation is still in excellent shape.

...heading into the last month of the season, I'm not seeing many flaws in this team.

I mean, as I discussed yesterday, the biggest and baddest teams don't always survive to the World Series anymore, especially since they made the playoffs longer and gave teams more opportunities to lose momentum. The Braves have so much momentum right now that it scares me that they won't be able to hold onto it either. It certainly happened last year, and it's worth asking what they'll do to ensure it won't happen again. The team is better, yes, but we don't know who'll show up once the games start to really matter. 

Of anyone right now, the Braves are in the best position to repeat as World Series champion only a couple years after their last win. All it takes is for them to follow it through.

Coming Tomorrow- This season he was the designated backup catcher and injured for several months. Didn't stop him from outdoing most of the team in the hitting department, though.

Rookies of Circumstance

 
For the first time in a few years, I called both Rookies of the Year. Now, I do think the AL race should have had more room for Jeremy Pena, but an Astro not winning that award was a very good outcome. J-Rod seemed like the favorite, and Harris had the better season compared to Strider. So I can say, with certainty, that these were the two best rookies of the year, and that they did their jobs well.

But...I am thinking about roster longevity with these picks. I am thinking about the idea of someone being a good Rookie of the Year but a less-than-good career player. And I'm thinking about Kyle Lewis.

You remember Kyle Lewis, right? Lewis burst onto the scene in Seattle with 6 home runs in his first 18 games, then won a Rookie of the Year the following season with 11 homers in the strike-shortened 2020 season. Okay, great, the Mariners have a centerfielder with staying power that wins Rookie of the Year, fantastic. Lewis has played 54 games since winning that award, and has only hit 8 home runs in that period.

And now, all of the sudden, the Mariners have a centerfielder with staying power that wins Rookie of the Year. And this one looks even better than Lewis, and people are already proclaiming J-Rod king of Seattle. 

So...in years past, when teams have had multiple Rookies of the Year in the span of a few years, they've actually gotten to, you know, play alongside each other. Bellinger and Seager. DeGrom and Alonso. Correa and Alvarez. Now Acuna and Harris played on the same outfield. But the Mariners have Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodriguez win ROY within two years of each other, and instead of priming the two of them to play alongside each other, the Mariners see Rodriguez as their starting centerfielder for the next ten years, and...I don't know what they think is gonna happen with Lewis.

Now, you are seeing the Mariners begin to play Lewis in right [when they're not DHing him], and he's been pretty efficient there so far. But...Kyle Lewis has yet to show many sparks of his 2020 glory, and the worry is that 2020 was really all there was to him. And compared to Julio, who already feels like a career hero for the Mariners, that's not a good sign at all. If anything, it speaks to the troubles of the Mariners organization, even if they've built themselves into competitors again. Even if they've constructed this team, they've still overseeded themselves. The dream, I assume, is a J-Rod/Lewis/Kelenic outfield, but the three haven't all been on at the same time, and the Ms are getting worried about the other two.

The Braves having Harris now is a lot easier since Adam Duvall probably isn't coming back, so they can just start Harris, Acuna and Rosario without any real overflow. So I don't see them having the problem the Mariners are having. And if the Ms play their cards right, it may not even be much of a problem. But it's...definitely an interesting statement 2 years after Lewis's win to feel as though he's already been replaced.

I imagine similarly intriguing conversations will come about on Wednesday when someone wins the Cy Young alongside Sandy Alcantara. 

Attack of the Braves Rookies

 

You know how last year the Braves traded for a bunch of people and then they carried the team to a World Series? This year's like that, but instead of traded people it's rookies. Michael Harris, Spencer Strider, William Contreras and now Vaughn Grissom are giving this team the boost they need to make themselves a postseason contender again.

And a lot of these guys are providing the same kind of services the add-ons from last year did. Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler all got added because Ronald Acuna was injured and Marcell Ozuna was out. This year, Acuna was only injured for a bit, but Duvall and Rosario were out for longer stretches. So in came Harris, a 21-year-old defensive upgrade with an excellent contact bat. Harris is currently hitting .298 with 45 RBIs and 13 home runs. Not bad for one of the youngest people on the roster. 

Then you have the Ozzie Albies injury. Last year, the Braves would have traded for somebody, Josh Harrison or Cesar Hernandez or somebody. This year they call up Vaughn Grissom, also 21, and he proceeds to hit .324 with 10 RBIs in 3 homers in his first 18 games. It's the kind of insane performance that makes me wonder what's going to happen once Ozzie Albies comes back. As great as Grissom is, can they really afford to keep him down in the minors again after this? Why do I see a trade in Grissom's future?

And then the other two, Strider and Contreras, have been here since the start of the season and have had great full rookie campaigns, building themselves into the foundation of the team and feeling like veterans already. Contreras has been an excellent catcher for a team that already has Travis d'Arnaud, and has a healthy version of him [Mets couldn't even secure that]. Strider has been excellent rotation security for a team that struck out with Huascar Ynoa and Ian Anderson this year. Strider might be a heavy ROY favorite, and I think he's got a strong case.

The team itself also has the strength of Max Fried, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson and, yes, Ronald Acuna, powering it through to September. I definitely think the Braves will be a heavy favorite this postseason, and could go pretty deep into things if other teams make the mistake of going against them as if they were still operating by 2021 rules. I finally figured it out. The 2021 Braves are like the 2010 Giants. Lots of veterans holding things together but the youth is juuuust ready, and now from here on in, they'll be running things just fine.

Coming Tonight: A nasty young reliever for a team determined to somehow stay in the fight.