2023 in Former Rookies of the Year

 
It's odd to look back at the Rookie of the Year winners from the 2000s and see how much of a crapshoot this thing used to be. I mean, I'm sure there'll be different assessments in about 10 more years, but just seeing how many ROY winners flamed out after 5 years or less, like Angel Berroa, Jason Jennings, Andrew Bailey, Chris Coghlan, Bobby Crosby and, let's be honest with ourselves, Jason Bay. 

You look at the ones from the 2010s and it's mostly predicted the stars of today- all of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, Shohei Ohtani, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez remain the biggest stars in the game. By 2013, 15 of the 20 ROY winners of the previous decade were still in the league, and six of those guys were still among the biggest stars of the game [Ichiro, Pujols, Pedroia, Verlander, Hanley Ramirez and Evan Longoria]. The rest were scrubs.

By comparison, 16 of the 20 from the 2010s are still in the league, and 13 of those guys are still considered huge stars, and are being used in big roles going into camp this year. If Buster Posey hadn't retired, he'd be a figure in this as well. 

Just for fun, I'll go down the list of the active Rookie of the Year winners, and see how they're doing going into the start of the season in a week.

Justin Verlander, 2006: Heh, funny how it drops a bit when Pujols finally retires. Verlander, even for a 40-year-old, is looking at another huge season, in a top role in the Mets' rotation to begin the year. Verlander and Scherzer are gonna be an epic duo that, despite their ages, look to strike the hell out of opposing offenses for as long as they can. No current sign of slipping, though his age and durability are both worries.

Evan Longoria, 2008. Longoria has been in the league for 15 years now and is only now donning his third uniform, fittingly the team that came into the league at the same time as his beloved Rays. The Diamondbacks are planning to use Longo as a starting third baseman and potential DH option. Longo has missed parts of the last few seasons with the Giants, though, to his credit, he's been excellent whenever he's been active. I don't think his star is as high as it was when he came to San Francisco, but he's still had a hell of a career, and the D-Backs might get a bit of pep from his counsel. 

Craig Kimbrel, 2011. Kimbrel's Rod Beck comparisons are back. He's become a journeyman type closer, showing up somewhere and getting 30 or so saves while not being as lights-out as he used to be. This year he's in Philly, and he's not guaranteed the ninth due to Gregory Soto being an even better closing option. He might need to be the setup man, and judging by late 2021, he's not the best at doing that either. 

Bryce Harper, 2012. Hurt, likely to come back by June or July, but still beloved and still regarded as one of the best in the league. 

Mike Trout, 2012. Despite recent injuries and a few Griffey comparisons, still undeniably one of baseball's biggest stars, and priming himself for another huge season in LA after a great WBC run.

Wil Myers, 2013. I think that, while Myers' ability to be one of the biggest stars in the game extinguished in about 2016, he's been a solid enough hitter ever since. He's passed his peak, and the Reds knew that when they picked him up, but he's probably gonna make the team and he'll aid them as an inoffensive power bat. 

Jacob deGrom, 2014. A change of teams, and a slight increase of ERA, are his biggest obstacles going into 2023, but he's still considered one of the best pitchers in the game, has won multiple Cy Young awards, and looks to make the Rangers a contender again.

Jose Abreu, 2014. I've talked up Abreu as an underrated HOF contender, solely because of how consistent his offensive production has been ever since coming into the league. I fear now that he's just passing his peak years, and though the Astros have given him a nice paycheck, I don't know if he'll deliver for them as well as he did for Chicago.

Kris Bryant, 2015. Still one of the biggest names in the game despite missing most of last season. Pretty much everyone is convinced he's due for a comeback with the Rockies, I am hoping they are right.

Carlos Correa, 2015. Though no one is quite certain what medical issue ended up ruining his deals with the Giants and Mets, he's at least back in an organization he knows, he's coming off a strong season, and he's looking to stay relevant despite the Twins not being as sure of a bet as, well, the Mets. I think he's still one of the stars of the game, but he's in danger of blowing it.

Corey Seager, 2016. Yeah, last season made it clear that Corey Seager is still a five-tool player even if he's no longer a member of the Dodgers. With a fuller Rangers roster he looks to make even more of a statement and add to his trophy case even more.

Michael Fulmer, 2016. Yes, clearly Fulmer didn't pan out the way the Tigers wanted, which is a rarity considering who surrounds him on this post, but he's reinvented himself as a reliever. In all of his spring appearances with the Cubs he's gone scoreless, so they're at least excited about that. I don't think he's ever gonna be as big of a deal as he was in 2016 and 2017, though.

Aaron Judge, 2017. Well, of course he's doing well, and he's a hell of a lot richer, too. 

Cody Bellinger, 2017. The last two seasons have put him on the border of stardom and obscurity, and it really hinges on whether he can do anything for the Cubs this year. I think he's honestly cooked himself, and might have peaked in 2019, much like his MVP rival Christian Yelich.

Shohei Ohtani, 2018. Duh.

Ronald Acuna Jr., 2018. Still one of the big stars of the game, yes, but he's missed a bit too much time due to injuries, and he needs this season to prove his staying power, and that he can still perform with the big boys even in a more crowded Braves lineup. 

Yordan Alvarez, 2019. I'd say he's still a big star, though maybe not as big as some other people in this post. If he's able to keep his home run numbers up and stay healthy, his star will rise. If not, he'll be another symbol of the Astros' championship runs.

Pete Alonso, 2019. Yeah, I'm pretty confident that he's still a marquee guy even if he's not quite hitting as many as he did in 2019. Alonso is still one of the biggest stars on the Mets, and will be relied upon a great deal as the stakes get even higher for them.

Kyle Lewis, 2020. The injuries have really lessened Lewis' appeal, which is why he's starting this season as a backup outfielder for the Diamondbacks. I don't wanna believe he's washed himself up this quickly, but I'm very worried that if the 2020 season had been full, he wouldn't have won the award. 

Devin Williams, 2020. As mad as I was that Williams won this award for a month of service, he's become a very strong reliever and closer, and one of the most reliable members of the Brewers. Maybe not a huge star, but it could turn out that way if he stays this excellent.

Randy Arozarena, 2021. His 2020 and 2021 were great. His 2022 was a lot more human. Is it a sophomore slump, or indicative of future trends. With the Rays expected to underperform this year, many eyes will be on Arozarena to see if he really is for real, or if Wander Franco should have gotten that ROY instead.

Jonathan India, 2021. After getting injured very early in the season, India turned in a merely passable sophomore year in a depleted Cincinnati infield. The pressure may be on him a lot more with even less stars in the Reds' lineup, and I worry he may not exceed expectations.

Julio Rodriguez, 2022. Looking extremely good.

Michael Harris II, 2022. As excellent as Harris was in 2022, and as confident as the Braves are in his abilities, I am not sold yet on Harris' long term appeal, and will need a similar year to last year to really convince me that he's for real. With, again, A LOT OF BRAVES looking to impress this year, Harris will either stand out immediately or get lost in the shuffle. 

And that's where we're at. A lot of these guys still look really good in 2023, and, funnily enough, some of the early 2020s ones have already not aged very well. 

Rookies of Circumstance

 
For the first time in a few years, I called both Rookies of the Year. Now, I do think the AL race should have had more room for Jeremy Pena, but an Astro not winning that award was a very good outcome. J-Rod seemed like the favorite, and Harris had the better season compared to Strider. So I can say, with certainty, that these were the two best rookies of the year, and that they did their jobs well.

But...I am thinking about roster longevity with these picks. I am thinking about the idea of someone being a good Rookie of the Year but a less-than-good career player. And I'm thinking about Kyle Lewis.

You remember Kyle Lewis, right? Lewis burst onto the scene in Seattle with 6 home runs in his first 18 games, then won a Rookie of the Year the following season with 11 homers in the strike-shortened 2020 season. Okay, great, the Mariners have a centerfielder with staying power that wins Rookie of the Year, fantastic. Lewis has played 54 games since winning that award, and has only hit 8 home runs in that period.

And now, all of the sudden, the Mariners have a centerfielder with staying power that wins Rookie of the Year. And this one looks even better than Lewis, and people are already proclaiming J-Rod king of Seattle. 

So...in years past, when teams have had multiple Rookies of the Year in the span of a few years, they've actually gotten to, you know, play alongside each other. Bellinger and Seager. DeGrom and Alonso. Correa and Alvarez. Now Acuna and Harris played on the same outfield. But the Mariners have Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodriguez win ROY within two years of each other, and instead of priming the two of them to play alongside each other, the Mariners see Rodriguez as their starting centerfielder for the next ten years, and...I don't know what they think is gonna happen with Lewis.

Now, you are seeing the Mariners begin to play Lewis in right [when they're not DHing him], and he's been pretty efficient there so far. But...Kyle Lewis has yet to show many sparks of his 2020 glory, and the worry is that 2020 was really all there was to him. And compared to Julio, who already feels like a career hero for the Mariners, that's not a good sign at all. If anything, it speaks to the troubles of the Mariners organization, even if they've built themselves into competitors again. Even if they've constructed this team, they've still overseeded themselves. The dream, I assume, is a J-Rod/Lewis/Kelenic outfield, but the three haven't all been on at the same time, and the Ms are getting worried about the other two.

The Braves having Harris now is a lot easier since Adam Duvall probably isn't coming back, so they can just start Harris, Acuna and Rosario without any real overflow. So I don't see them having the problem the Mariners are having. And if the Ms play their cards right, it may not even be much of a problem. But it's...definitely an interesting statement 2 years after Lewis's win to feel as though he's already been replaced.

I imagine similarly intriguing conversations will come about on Wednesday when someone wins the Cy Young alongside Sandy Alcantara. 

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #127-135

 Bit of personal news as I post this one- I get my second vaccine today. Joyous moment, my social circles are beginning to open up there, and the goal is to get to at least one Philadelphia Phillies game this season, as they are the closest MLB team to me at roughly a half-hour from the house on a good day. I miss going to baseball games, I didn't go to enough in 2019, and I wanna get back to attending some this year.

Now, here are the next 9 cards in the ongoing 2020 Topps Final Edition series:

Card #127- Daniel Robertson, San Francisco Giants

After coming up as a replacement for Evan Longoria and slowly losing playing time to Matt Duffy and Yandy Diaz, Daniel Robertson found himself picked up by the Giants in 2020, only for him to reunite with the man he replaced in Tampa. While Longo still made the majority of the starts at third, Robertson was a useful backup infielder, hitting .333 in 13 games, with 7 hits and 2 RBIs. It was a showcase for other teams to sign him as a utility man in 2021, which the Brewers jumped at.

Card #128- Kyle Lewis ASG, Seattle Mariners

It should not especially surprise you that, if the 2020 season had resulted in an All Star Game, Kyle Lewis would have been the only Mariners nominee. With apologies to Marco Gonzalez, J.P. Crawford and Austin Nola, Lewis was the only piece of that lineup that felt indicative of the entirety of the AL- homer-busting, high-speed, good for baseball. And while Lewis' numbers dipped after August, he still left with 11 homers and 28 RBIs, definitely not a bad shake of things. While he's currently injured, he looks to be a huge piece of the Mariners lineup in 2021, especially with the return of Mitch Haniger.

Card #129- Mitch White, Los Angeles Dodgers

It's not every day that a rookie comes upon my radar thanks to a news segment. ABC Nightly News did a spotlight on Mitch White, whose aunt is an ABC Correspondent, and he's the descendant of immigrants and last year he finally made the bigs after years of climbing the ladder. It makes for a good story, and it makes for an intriguing MLB piece for the Champion Dodgers. He only pitched 2 games, but he was lights-out in relief with 2 strikeouts. White is likely gonna be used as a major relief option this season in LA. 

Card #130- Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds

Lost in the shuffle of the Reds' 2020 playoff run was the rookie splash made by Tyler Stephenson, their top catching prospect. Like Aristedes Aquino, Stephenson was doing his best to stay relevant in a lineup where there was no room for him. Curt Casali and Tucker Barnhart were viable options at catcher, and any opportunity to play Stephenson elsewhere was met with similar roadblockage. Which was a pity, since Stephenson was on fire at the plate whenever they brought him up, hitting .294 with 2 homers and 6 RBIs in only 8 games. Thankfully, with the departure of Curt Casali, Stephenson is getting more playing time, and will likely become a bigger player as Barnhart phases out. 

Card #131- Daz Cameron, Detroit Tigers

Daz Cameron holds the distinction, along with his father Mike Cameron, of being one of the few [and if not few, only] father-son duos to have both been traded for a Hall of Famer. Mike was famously traded to the Mariners in 2000 for Ken Griffey Jr., while Daz was a Houston prospect that was dealt to Detroit in exchange for Justin Verlander. I understand that Verlander isn't a Hall of Famer yet, but seeing as he's going to be in 7 years, you might as well just print the legend. Daz Cameron himself underwhelmed in his 2020 call-up, hitting .193 in 17 games thanks to being a part of a crowded youth movement. While Cameron is starting the 2021 season in the minors, I feel like he'll get his chance sooner or later...unless the Tigers feel the need to trade him for another Hall of Famer anytime soon. 

Card #132- Byron Buxton ASG, Minnesota Twins

Now hear this and hear it well- Byron Buxton would have been the starting centerfielder of the AL All-Star Team if last year's game had happened. Yes, somehow Mike Trout wouldn't make it, as the Minnesota centerfielder would win out on account of his numbers, and the bloodthirsty Twins fanbase. It would have been the culmination of another phenomenal year for Buxton, who's become a formidable leadership figure for the Twins, and has upped his offensive abilities in recent years. Hopefully he continues his fantastic work this year as well.

Card #133- Santiago Espinal, Toronto Blue Jays

As the Jays figured out their infield before switching things around in 2021, one of the people they tried out at shortstop [to help fill the void after Bichette's injury] was rookie Santiago Espinal. The 26-year-old rookie made a decent name for himself, hitting .267 with 16 hits in 26 games, and becoming a low-key fixture for the Jays in 2020. But as Semien arrived in Toronto, Espinal was moved back to the minors.

Card #134- William Contreras, Atlanta Braves

Long overshadowed by his older brother Willson in Chicago, William Contreras was an early roster piece for the Braves last year thanks to Tyler Flowers and Travis d'Arnaud both starting the season on the IL. Contreras played his role will, hitting .400 in 4 games with 4 hits and an RBI, but once the other catchers returned, it was back to the taxi squad for him. With Alex Jackson making the team over him, Contreras will have to prove himself in the minors before the eventual call-up.

Card #135- Mike Minor, Oakland Athletics

Mike Minor was primed to be one of the big stars of the Rangers rotation last year, but after Kluber got hurt, Lyles disappointed and Kolby Allard dissipated, the stakes dropped mightily. Minor struggled to get his ERA below 5 in a market with barely any run support, and was traded to a competitor, Oakland, in August. His luck didn't exactly change, pitching 5.48 in a rotation piece that doubled as a bullpen piece, and slightly boosting his stock by pitching 4 scoreless postseason innings against Houston. Thankfully, he seems to be working on a reclamation project in Kansas City this year.

The next 9 cards in the set premiere on friday. A few very strange cases in this post, along with a recently-injured rookie. 

2020 Rookies of the Year: One League Had it Easier Than The Other

 [Tim Kurkjian voice] DID YOU KNOOOOW THAT THE LAAAST TIME TWO AFRICAN AMERICAN MEN WON BOTH LEAGUES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARDS, THE YEAR WAS 1984 AND ONLY 76 CURRENT MAJOR LEAGUERS WERE ALIVE?

...Look.

Voting for a Rookie of the Year can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's odd enough that you're not voting for one rookie of the year, and it's separated by leagues, but sometimes the best overall rookie isn't in the conversation for some reason. You're really following the guidelines of pundits and booming voices, regardless of who actually deserves anything. A lot like Oscar voting. Was Green Book really the best movie of 2018? No. The Sonic the Hedgehog movie from this year was better than Green Book. But enough industry people say in booming voices 'this is how the votes are gonna go', and that's how they go, greenback distribution or no.

And that's what we're dealing with one of our rookies of the year in 2020.

Kyle Lewis is the one I don't have a problem with. I know that he completely trailed off in September, and that Luis Robert maybe would have been a more consistent choice for the award, but Kyle Lewis at his height this year was unstoppable, and was one of the sole forces keeping the Brewers in the conversation.

And that's the big factor for me, when I think about these awards. Does the presence of this one player make or break this team? Without Kyle Lewis, could the Mariners even have gotten as far as they did this year? Probably not. This kid is on the way to a nice career if he keeps his averages high. 

And then there is Devin Williams. Devin Williams is a great reliever, was fantastic in 2020, and his unhittable work was definitely a factor in the Brewers' 2020 season. However...take Devin Williams away, are the Brewers any better or worse? Not really. He is just a reliever, in a bullpen of people like Josh Hader, David Phelps and Eric Yardley. Williams was there for 22 games, 27 innings. He missed playing time in September due to an injury, and the Brewers fell off...but they were going to fall off anyway because they just weren't as good this year. Corbin Burnes made the Brewers look like they had a chance for a split second in September. Williams was just a really good reliever for the month of August. 

And I know what people are gonna say. 'Jordan, you make customs of relievers no one talks about, why not boast about a relief pitcher getting a major award?' Because Devin Williams never felt like 'the best rookie performance of the year' to me at all this year. I was getting ready for Jake Cronenworth to win it. Cronenworth was giving me David Ecsktein vibes, I liked how he fit right into the Tatis-Machado-Hosmer infield, and while he wasn't one of the biggest producers of this team [that was Tatis, another detail the writers got wrong in nominating players for awards this year], he still brought a lot of versatility to this Padres team. 

But like Williams, I don't know if Cronenworth is going to have a career of seasons like this, or if he'll become David Eckstein, the full novelty of him and all. Will Williams still have a career in 2030? Will he still be as consistent? As much as I love relievers, one of the reasons why Topps doesn't always include the correct relievers is that it's very rare for a reliever, or a closer, to be consistent for a long period of time without completely losing it for a season or two. Look at Craig Kimbrel, a ROY pick I thought was valid back in the day. Kimbrel has had two straight down years, and is looking into a role as a middle reliever instead of his usual 9th inning role. 

Will Devin Williams be this good for the rest of his career? Probably not. This is, of course, rewarding his 2020 season, not predicting whether or not he'll have a career after this, but...I feel like that needs to have a hand in this. Both Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani had miserable years in 2020, due to injuries and inefficiency. I wish more sportswriters would vote for this award with the guise of 'which of these players is going to be a superstar for the next several years?'

If I were given a vote for Rookie of the Year, I would have voted for Sixto Sanchez. Not Alec Bohm, for any of you who thought I was bitter about someone from one of my teams not getting it [that comes when one of the Joses wins AL MVP this week]. Sixto Sanchez, despite a slightly late come up, made the Marlins into a contender, and was one of the strongest pitchers in the NL East this year. He also was responsible for some decent postseason energy, and previewed what could be a prosperous career that the Phillies gave up for a catcher they're not even gonna try and re-sign. To me, Sixto Sanchez was the best rookie in the NL. But he only got one vote, so what the hell do I know?

Maybe the sportswriters know something I don't about Devin Williams. Maybe he has the career and Kyle Lewis flames out in 5 years. I just...thought I had this predicted, and I was off. That tends to happen. Maybe I'll warn up to ROY Devin Williams. 

Regardless, it's a very big deal that both ROYs were african-american. I like that a lot, and it almost justifies the questionable NL pick for me. More than almost. 

Youth Movement Inversion in Seattle

The main thesis of this next post is 'the Mariners don't know what they're doing, and yet are sort of doing well anyway.'

So, the Ms have won 3 straight, and are in prime position in the West. There's a small youth movement that's grown over the past year or so, consisting  of J.P. Crawford, Shed Long, Kyle Lewis and Tim Lopes, and all of them are hitting well and glomming onto the old guard of Seager, Gordon and Vogey to create a cohesive, powerful lineup.

However, there's a minor issue here.

Prior to this season, the Ms were working on another youth movement, a newer, flashier one. The Mariners planned to start the season with Evan White at first and Jake Fraley in the outfield, while also keeping Jose Marmolejos and Logan Gilbert in mind as potential callups. However, for whatever reason, Fraley and  Gilbert haven't done anything yet, Marmolejos has been the starting DH and has barely hit, and White has started every game at 1st and has also barely hit. There's also really no need for either Fraley or Gilbert, as Gordon-Lewis-Smith is a cohesive outfield and Justin Dunn has usurped Gilbert as the youth-driven sixth man in the rotation.

So basically, in a few months' time the youth movement has been nullified by a previous youth movement that wasn't entirely working until just this second. It is the baseball equivalent of Wile E. Coyote setting up a crank-operated steel wall, and the wall not actually springing upwards until three gags later.

More surprising  still is the efficiency of the pitching- Gonzales, Dunn and Walker are all doing well, Taylor Williams has moved in as closer, and the bullpen has benefitted from the all-star cast of also-rans [Carl Edwards, Nestor Cortes, Matt Magill]. This is a pretty alright team that, while a call-up or two wouldn't hurt, is pretty self-sustaining. Compare that to Detroit, which, while pretty  alright, is still thinking  about calling up Casey Mize. The M's might be on the right  track after all.

Coming Tomorrow- Undeniably talented shortstop for a team that is [checks notes] LEADING THE NL WEST???

Kyle Lewis Saves Seattle

A pattern with a lot of the worse-off teams is that you'll see one big rookie divert attention from the hardships for about a week or so, before the team continues their plight into irrelevance. The Reds has Aristedes Aquino for this. The Pirates have legitimate ROY candidate Bryan Reynolds. The Marlins had Jordan Yamamoto in July.

And the Mariners had an insane first week from Kyle Lewis. So, not bad.

Lewis homered in his first three games in Seattle, eventually reaching 6 with 12 RBIs in 14 games. For a team that's been failing to get any momentum all year, this is definitely a good sign. This is also a good sign because the other Mariners in charge of home runs are all dormant- Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion are gone, Mitch Haniger's injured, Tim Beckham's suspended and Dan Vogelbach has slowed down. Lewis is the kind of spark that this lineup has needed for the end of the run.

But for 2020, this lineup needs more of a spark than just Kyle Lewis. This team nearly got no-hit by Zack Greinke last night, which, for the record, is the second time this season the Astros have come close to no-hitting the Mariners. Unlike the last time with Gerrit Cole, there wasn't some strategically close left field wall to help the M's, and Austin Nola had to do the work himself to get a single off of Cole. But it was still a one-hit shutout, and that only looks marginally better.

No, for next season, the Mariners need to develop a team that doesn't feel flukey, and can succeed past April. Because, as evident by the big hitters dissolving after May, and the great pitchers slumping halfway through, that wasn't the plan this year. Next year, the team will be without Felix Hernandez, which judging from his current numbers may seem like a weight being lifted, as well as Wade LeBlanc. They're probably gonna structure this team around the youth movement beginning to rise up, especially with Lewis, and they may emphasize the roles of JP Crawford and Austin Nola.

But...will even THAT work? Because the M's have had horrible luck recently, and I'd hate to see it continue.

Coming Tonight: A speedy, young outfielder for a team that definitely underwhelmed this year.