Showing posts with label Rob Refsnyder. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rob Refsnyder. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Red Sox

 

At long last, the Boston Red Sox, in Alex Cora's second tenure as manager, finally found a winning formula. All it took was trading away Rafael Devers.

Trevor Story finally had a healthy year, and gave the Sox what they'd been waiting for. The rookies, including Roman Anthony and Connelly Early, sought to eventually inherit the team by flashing cool MLB moments. Masataka Yoshida cemented his status as the ultimate Yankee-killer. Alex Bregman had a year so good it might land him a contract away from Boston. And it all led to a playoff berth, culminating in a suitably-strong Yanks-Sox series, one that ultimately resulted in a New York win.

The biggest triumph of all was getting a Cy Young caliber season out of Garrett Crochet. I initially questioned the Sox's choice to trade so much of their future to Chicago on the basis of one strong season from Crochet, itself marred by limited innings down the stretch. I was worried that the second Garrett Crochet got to Boston, he'd get hurt and render the deal pointless. Even in making a custom in March, I was very skeptical of how long the Sox would be able to savor this deal. Therefore, I apologize for doubting both parties. I whipped up a much better Crochet custom, one definitely befitting of his terrific 2025 season. 

Because there were so many ripe targets to customize this year, and because I was out of commission for a lot of the summer, I didn't even get to doing one of Brayan Bello, who had another really nice year as a Sox starter. It's weird to say this but Bello finally got a season ERA below 4, and went 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA over 28 starts. He'll be 27 next year, and the future's looking pretty bright.
2026 Prediction: Sub-3 ERA, Cy Young votes, ASG nod.

There were two ex-White Sox heroes who signed 2-year deals with the Sox before the 2024 season only to sit the season out entirely, both finally pitching for them this year. One of them was former White Sox hero Lucas Giolito, who blew his arm out midway through the 2023 season [as the Angels found out the hard way], and recovered all last year. His stuff in 2025 was pretty good, he went 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 121 Ks over 26 starts. Slightly limited due to making sure his arm didn't fall apart, but a much nicer showing.
2026 Prediction: Tigers sign him to a 1-year deal, he misses two months but ekes out a crucial postseason win for them.

The other ex-Chicago pitcher to finally play a healthy[-ish] season for the Sox this year was Liam Hendriks, the beloved Australian closer. Hendriks has still been recovering from both arm injuries and cancer treatments, and his 14-game run this year seemed to indicate the majority of his strong stuff wasn't there, with a 6.59 ERA and 2 losses. At the very least, he fulfilled his end of the bargain as best he could.
2026 Prediction: Retires.

At the very least, perennial Boston bullpen piece Garrett Whitlock had a healthier year this year, mostly because he wasn't being relied upon to start games. He was the top reliever in the 'pen this year, with a 2.25 ERA and 91 Ks, plus 7 wins, in 72 innings. His best year since the breakout for sure.
2026 Prediction: Knowing Whitlock this year will be a major step down.

In a long line of excellent Red Sox bench guys, Rob Refsnyder has been everything this team has needed him to be and more since joining the team in 2022. All he needs to do is show up, occasionally start, and be relied upon for the odd clutch hit. This year in 70 games he hit .269 with 9 homers, 30 RBIs and an .838 OPS. 
2026 Prediction: When I wrote this post, I did not see anyone other than the Red Sox signing him, as I did not think Refsnyder wanted to play anywhere else. But to be perfectly honest, the Mariners NEED a bench guy like Refsnyder, since Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver didn't work. I think Refsnyder will ultimately work in Seattle, but I want to stress that they got him as a depth option. Hopefully he doesn't end up stuck as a starting option.

One of the big developments of the Red Sox' 2025 season was the emphasis on bringing in the rookies and giving them chances to be the star. Kristian Campbell got his chance out of camp, and he was just the beginning. Hunter Dobbins got to start some games after the Red Sox realized that Sean Newcomb starting games wasn't a good idea, and in 13 starts he had a 4.13 ERA with 45 Ks and a 4-1 record. The most infamous detail of Dobbins' season was that he went 2-0 against the Yankees, including going 6 innings against them only allowing 2 hits. Dobbins eventually made a comment that he'd sooner retire than play for the Yankees. After this, he got beaten up by the Giants, missed a month, then had to miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Karmic retribution, perhaps.
2026 Prediction: Even before the Contreras deal I figured he’d be traded, just from how much rotation overhead the Sox currently possess. St. Louis has much more room, and though I’m not sure if he’ll be opening day ready, he’s got a good chance of being a stretch savior even if the Cardinals miss again.
Marcelo Mayer was the second of the three big Sox rookies to come up this year, easing in at third a tad as Alex Bregman missed time. Mayer's 44 games in the bigs were very okay- he hit .228 with 4 homers and 10 RBIs. Eventually he was brought back down to make room for Bregman again.
2026 Prediction: So, uh...Bregman's not coming back. Everybody knows it, except maybe Bregman himself. There will be an opening at third, and Mayer will be ready. I think he's gonna have a huge season next year, though maybe not as huge as another Sox rookie:

Of the three call-ups in the lineup, Roman Anthony was the one who got fans the most excited. Biggest prospect, biggest offensive perk, highest ceiling. At a certain point this season, Anthony was looking like so much of a sure thing that the Sox were trying to shop Jarren Duran. Anthony, in 71 games, hit .292 with an .859 OPS, with 8 homers and 32 RBIs. It was a very confident MLB audition, one that would have garnered more ROY votes had Anthony not gotten hurt mid-August.
2026 Prediction: Get those posters up on Yawkey Way. Crochet. Story. Anthony right in the middle. This guy's the future, and the future's gonna kick in big time next year.

The Sox made some minor moves at the deadline, mostly supplanting the pitching staff. In a move that still confuses me, the Sox got Dustin May from LA, looking to...LIGHTEN their starting load. Yes, they still won it all, but I think May could have helped. He got 6 games in Boston before getting hurt, and went 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. 
2026 Prediction: Rebounds slightly with St. Louis but unless he plans on figuring out how to stay healthy for all 7 months, it's not gonna really matter.

Meanwhile, after having a tremendous season as a swingman and reliever with the Cardinals, Steven Matz landed on the Sox for a similar reason for the stretch. In 21 games, Matz had a 2.08 ERA, with a 0.877 WHIP. Nobody was getting past this guy this year. He went scoreless against the Yanks in the playoffs as well.
2026 Prediction: Well, now the Rays are gonna figure out how to work with him. My guess is they start him, he's great, they trade him for prospects and then he gets hurt again.

Coming Tomorrow- The Reds, similarly, broke through and made it to the playoffs after years of trying. It didn't end well for them. 

Monday, December 23, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Red Sox

 

I can firmly say that the Boston Red Sox were the best bad team of 2024. They may have ended the season at literally .500, and they may have squandered the faintest playoff chance with a dreary August, but this team had low expectations and ended the year in third, ahead of the Blue Jays and Rays. They had two MVP caliber seasons from their star players, their three best starters went 30 or more games and stayed consistent, and are bringing up people that could be major pieces for a while. This season was definitely a win for the Sox, and considering their intentions this offseason, they want to climb the division again as soon as next year.

Trevor Story came into this season more motivated and fired up than he's been in years, then, like he has so many times in Boston, immediately got injured. Unlike Anthony Rendon you feel bad for Story, because he gives his all whenever possible, and just hasn't been able to keep it together with the Sox. In 26 games he hit .255 with 10 RBIs and only 2 homers. Something good has to be on the way.
2025 Prediction: Finally, Story gives Boston one of those 30-homer years they were promised way back in 2022.
Somehow, Nick Pivetta has found more consistency in Boston than he did in Philadelphia, even if you can make the argument that the Phillies have been more consistent in the last few years than the Sox have been. Pivetta had some shaky starts early on but evened out, ending up with a 4.14 ERA, 172 strikeouts and a 1.126 WAR. I think the Sox took a flyer on Pivetta in 2020 and didn't think they'd wind up with a solid innings eater for the rest of the decade.
2025 Prediction: I think the Sox might try to re-sign him for a spell, but if not, lands in a 4th starter spot for an NL Central team.

This current incarnation of the Sox has a lot of Yankee killers. Obviously Rafael Devers is a big one of those, but this year I found out first hand how lethal Masataka Yoshida can be against the Yanks. We had the game pretty much won, then Yoshida hit a massive home run and tied things up, and suddenly there was nothing we could really do. Yoshida has become a pretty strong DH type. He's not as consistent as most power DHs, but when he's on he's unstoppable. This year he hit .280 with 10 homers and 54 RBIs. Two of those homers came against the New York Yankees. 
2025 Prediction: For some reason, New York aside, Yoshida has to this point struggled to hit home runs in the majors. That all changes next year.

Another guy who had some nice luck against the Yanks when I saw them was Romy Gonzalez, a former White Sox infielder [he won the 2B gig over Leury Garcia a couple years ago] who was responsible for the majority of the innings at 2B in Trevor Story's absence. Gonzalez was above average, hitting .266 with 29 RBIs and 6 homers, and was strong defensively. 
2025 Prediction: Becomes the requisite superutility-IF and does well for himself.

I would not have predicted that, of all people, Rob Refsnyder would become one of the most celebrated fringe guys in Boston. I had no opinion of him when he was with the Yankees. He left no impact. And then he winds up in the Sox' system and becomes another Lou Merloni type 'EY GETTA LOADA DIS GUY' bench favorite there. I keep expecting the novelty to run out and it hasn't happened. In 93 games, Refsnyder hit .283 with 11 homers [MORE THAN YOSHIDA] and 40 RBIs.
2025 Prediction: Okay a downturn has to happen, but...either way he's still gonna do something fun in Fenway. He can't lose with these fans, it seems.

Triston Casas' injury sent the Red Sox into a tailspin, as they didn't have many backup 1B options readily available [save for someone like Refnsyder, which...no]. They tried Garrett Cooper, he didn't work. So they went with Dominic Smith, who did not make camp with the Cubs and couldn't even find work with Tampa. Smith got 84 games at 1st, and like Refsnyder he very quickly became the favorite of Sox fans, hitting .237 with 6 homers and 34 RBIs. Once Casas returned, Smith was very quickly cut, much to the ire of the Sox massive. His end of the year with Cincinnati, reunited with former Mets teammate Amed Rosario, didn't go quite as well.
2025 Prediction: If he couldn't make camp with the 2024 Cubs, can he make camp with somebody this year? Maybe. Or maybe he takes the minor league assignment and waits for a similar moment to 2024.

The lone deadline move the Sox made was poaching Danny Jansen from Toronto to replace, ironically, Reese McGuire as backup to Connor Wong. Jansen's defense spoke for itself, but he only hit .188 with 3 homers and 6 RBIs in 30 games, drastically less exciting than his first half stats.
2025 Prediction: I actually think he'll be a nice fit for Tampa, though don't count on them bringing him back if it goes well.

And in the haze of the final month of the year, as the Sox already knew they weren't making the playoffs, they filled a now-vacant rotation spot by calling up former Yankee prospect Richard Fitts, netted in the Verdugo deal. In a city like Boston, that's not a name that'll be responded to with subtlety. They just said goodbye to a guy they lovingly proclaimed Dick Mountain, you can't hand them a guy named Richard Fitts. "Ey, I wondah if he'll do any ads fuh K9! Right boys?" Anyway, Fitts slid right into the rotation, and in 4 games had a 1.74 ERA and a 0.6 WAR. He's not particularly flashy, but he seems to be one of those 'stay in without allowing much' types. Honestly, with Houck, Bello and Crawford they're good on flashy, and having a good innings-eating workhorse could be good for this team.
2025 Prediction: Fitts' appeal to this rotation will heavily depend upon A.) whether or not the Sox go for a smart rotation addition and B.) how healthy Garrett Whitlock is. Probably hinges most on the second one. Anyway he'll be solid enough in a low rotation role next year, when given the opportunity. 

Coming Tomorrow- As per usual this decade, a ton of leftover Reds.