The last time I gave my first custom card to the San Diego Padres it was 2015, and A.J. Preller had just pulled off a gambit, landing three of the biggest free agents on the board, namely James Shields, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton, while also landing Derek Norris, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and Craig Kimbrel in copious trades right up until Opening Day. It was an exercise in excess spending and bold moves unrivaled by anyone not named Cohen, and it was a risky statement from a team that hadn't competed in around a decade.
The strategy wouldn't pay off. Kemp, Kimbrel, Upton and Norris were all gone by the following year, and while Myers did stay as late as 2022, he wasn't quite the backbone the team needed to stay relevant. Thankfully, however, Preller would improve his aim over the years, and build a team starring big names like Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, as well as unsung surprise heroes like Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim and Austin Nola. The Padres have been postseason competitors in two of the last three seasons, and had a genuine shot at a World Series last year.
Preller, having gotten his big guns, has now begun moving to the next stage of his plan, which is refining the juggernaut. While initially only one player was extended further than 3 or 4 years, that being Fernando Tatis Jr., ironically arriving in a trade for James Shields, Preller has spent the past few months handing out extensions like packets of cotton candy. Not only have worthy candidates like Darvish and Musgrove been locked down for another 5 or 6 years, but even key relief pieces like Robert Suarez are getting longer-term deals.
The biggest pieces of Preller's plan were confirmed today. In addition to Xander Bogaerts being signed for 11 years...as of this morning, the team's centerpiece third baseman, Manny Machado, has also been signed for 11 years. Weeks after saying he was thinking of leaving San Diego.
So to recap, that's shortstop and third base sorted out for the next decade, and with Tatis moving to right field, that's another crucial position down for the rest of the 2020s. It's also looking like they have Ha-Seong Kim for another 2 years [possibly 3] and Jake Cronenworth til either side wants to get greedy, so that's the infield for another few years, and that's great. And while it's currently a long shot that Juan Soto or Josh Hader will stay with the team...you also can't quite count out A.J. Preller if he wants this team to keep winning.
My bold opinion for the NL West going into 2023 is that the Padres are a clearer favorite than the Dodgers. Unlike the 2022 offseason, pretty much every move the Padres made has been a big move that puts them in the direction of making a World Series. They got Bogaerts, locked up 4 or 5 players, got two handy DH-types in Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter, and supplanted their already-strong rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. I see little to no flaws in this team.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, feel like too many of their roster positions are settling. Chris Taylor, Trayce Thompson and this Ryan Pepiot kid that the organization seems obsessed with are looking at major starting roles, and too many offseason moves were used on guys in their thirties who seem to be exiting their prime [Peralta, Syndergaard, Martinez, Rojas] or seem to have already exited it [Heyward, Shelby Miller].
The Padres aren't the first team to start giving extensions to great players, as the Braves had been doing that last year, but they are using this as a way to not only keep their preexisting talent straight but also to procure free agent talent that may stray from their plan otherwise. Right now it's looking like chess-player-style strategy, and I sincerely hope it pays off for San Diego.
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