Weathering With You

 

It should be concerning that I'm going into a Yankees season going 'look at Ryan Weathers', but, with the way things have worked out, Ryan Weathers might be a major factor in the Yankees' rotation this year. That's right, Ryan Weathers, the guy who couldn't find a job pitching in San Diego, then got a prime seat for one in Miami and whenever he got the chance immediately got hurt, is a favorite to be a mid to late rotation arm for the New York Yankees. If you think that means we're doomed, you're not paying attention.

It has been made clear that the Yankees will be without Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt for a little while, and Carlos Rodon for at least the first few weeks of the season. Three really important pieces not joining you from the jump. So that requires rotation depth. However, as established last year, that's something we have now. We have Will Warren, who made all his starts last year in a season where he wasn't even a lock for the rotation, and we have Cam Schlittler, who had a phenomenal rookie stretch and some incredible postseason appearances. Like the Dodgers, we have contingency plans for injured starters. And it's very fitting that one of them, Ryan Weathers, is himself an oft-injured starter. 

So starting the season, the Yankees will be going with Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Ryan Weathers. People are writing this rotation off because it seems like a No. 2 guy and four No. 5 guys. It's not. Gil can go deep, and certainly did in 2024. Last year he was a little more human, he was due for a down year. Schlittler is on his way to ace status and will probably improve further in a full season of work. Warren, like Gil, can eat innings and go deep, and certainly strike people out. And Weathers, when healthy, is a good guy to have around. In 16 games in 2024, he had a 3.63 ERA, 80 Ks and a 1.177 WHIP. So far in Spring Training he's gotten into some trouble with the Mets but he still looks like a solid option. 

I think the perceived step down is just because it's an untested, lower-key rotation. There's no Gerrit Cole to fall back on. And I realize that the Jays will be coming in with Dylan Cease, the Red Sox now have Ranger Suarez, and the Orioles have Shane Baz, but I still think the Yankees have enough of a lineup to stay in the race until the hurt starters come back. They kept Cody Bellinger for a reason, and he really works in New York. We're also gonna see how Jose Caballero, Jasson Dominguez, Jazz Chisholm and Ben Rice do with eyes on them. 

I think about it this way: when the Yankees come in looking big, that's when they fall. That's when they embarrass themselves. They need to earn the status and get there without the big expectation, and then build on that. I think they can do this, but they need to convince people. 

And then who knows. Maybe Spencer Jones eventually makes an appearance and dials things to the next level.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Marlins

 

In a year where the usual NL spoiler, the New York Mets, were too depressed to actually catch would-be competitors, the surprise spoiler may have been the Miami Marlins. They were never gonna make the playoffs, especially not with such a disappointing year from Sandy Alcantara, but they were good enough to make it interesting, and may have provided crucial losses that kept the Cardinals, Rangers, Royals and, yes, the Mets from making the playoffs, plus a few losses that kept the Tigers from taking the Central. They set themselves up for an even bigger year in 2026, with so many young pieces primed to take major roles. If Kyle Stowers is back in full force, there's definitely a chance for some damage.

Another cool factor would be a full season from Griffin Conine. Conine, son of the beloved '03 Marlins outfielder, had a brief come up in 2024 with some great contact work, then got an Opening Day spot this year. However, not too far into April he was stopped by an injury that held him out until September, robbing him of what could have been a breakout season. In 24 games, Conine hit .253 with 2 homers and 8 RBIs. 

2026 Prediction: 150 games, 100+ hits, and people mad he didn't make the ASG.

Ryan Weathers had a similar predicament in 2025, and honestly in 2024 as well. He was guaranteed a rotation spot this year, but couldn't stay healthy enough to really take advantage of it. At the very least the material the Marlins got from Weathers this year was still good, as he had a 3.99 ERA with 37 Ks in 8 starts. But again, having him missing 23 starts meant that the Marlins needed to get replacement guys for a lot of the season.

2026 Prediction: 20 starts, a 3 ERA, and some trade chatter.

The addition of a utility gold glove has allowed for some unsung heroes to get their due, and this year it meant that rookie utility man Javier Sanoja got a trophy immediately. Sanoja was mostly an extra outfielder that backed up Connor Norby, and his defense was excellent wherever they played him. Offensively he wasn't always as reliable, with a .243 average, 6 homers and 38 RBIs, but I want to make it clear that his best offensive moments of the season were almost all against the Philadelphia Phillies. In 11 Phils games, Sanoja hit .385 with 8 RBIs and one homer, far and away his best average against any divisional opponent. 

2026 Prediction: Starts a bit more, hits a bit more, still kills the Phils.

The Marlins were without usual catcher Nick Fortes for a lot of the season, so presumed backup, and rookie, Liam Hicks, a Toronto native netted in the previous year's rule 5 draft, ended up as the defacto starter for a lot of the season. It proved to be a good move, as Hicks was a slight upgrade at the plate, hitting .247 with 82 hits in 119 games. In 13 May games, Hicks was hitting .313 with 7 RBIs and 3 homers, giving him the gig until Agustin Ramirez would give him a little competition.

2026 Prediction: So Hicks is a better defender than Ramirez, but Ramirez' bat is gonna need to be in that lineup everyday. I think they platoon things so Hicks still starts more often than not, and he has a similarly fine year. Though if any Marlins catcher is gonna get dealt, it will be Hicks.

Speaking of competition, Connor Norby, in an injury-plagued year, struggled to cement himself as well as fellow Baltimore farmhand Kyle Stowers in a full year in Miami. He only played in 88 games, and shared time with Graham Pauley and Javier Sanoja upon his return. He hit .251 with 8 homers and 34 RBIs in that time, which is still decent production, to the degree that he was at in 2024.

2026 Prediction: The Marlins give him third from the jump, he keeps it all year and had a 30+ homer season.

The Marlins' most effective bullpen piece this year was Anthony Bender, after settling in last year. Bender's season was shortened with 2 months left to go, but in 51 games he had a 2.16 ERA and a 1.060 WHIP. 

2026 Prediction: Ronny Henriquez has ensured he won't need to close, but he'll still be the go-to setup guy and come close to his 2025 heights.

In his stead, the Marlins gave a ton more reps to Tyler Phillips, who broke out last year with a terrific couple of starts for the Phillies, followed by a depressing drop-off. Being rejected by the Phils' fans made Phillips pretty angry, cause he's from the Philly area, and upon becoming a relief specialist in Miami he channeled that to great success, smacking himself before appearances, and preserving a deadpan, realist guise in postgame interviews. It may not be healthy behavior, but it paid off on the ballfield, with a 2.78 ERA, a 1.146 WHIP and a 1.9 WAR in 54 games and 77 innings. He can do long work, he can get saves, and he made the Bender loss a ton less crucial.

2026 Prediction: Well I sincerely hope he lightens up. Maybe has to fill-in as closer and does alright. Maybe they need him to start at some point and does alright there too.

With all the great rookies on this Marlins team, many of which I've spoken about here, it's easy to overlook Heriberto Hernandez, but judging by the fact that he got a small bit of ROY votes, there could be something here as well. In 87 games, Hernandez hit .266 with 10 homers and 45 RBIs, as an OF bat but also as a DH. The Marlins have Stowers and Ramirez as power bats, but Hernandez could be right there with him.

2026 Prediction: Gets more OF starts, has a 25 homer year.

Coming Tomorrow- So many New York Mets.

Stormy Weathers

 

Ryan Weathers must feel like he booked a last minute ticket for the Titanic and was in the bathroom at the exact time they started filling up the lifeboats.

Luis Arraez got traded to the Padres, and is now hitting .300 with them and helping them compete, and Weathers is still stuck in Miami getting the snot kicked out of him every 5 days on a team with no run support. And it's only gonna get worse as the season goes on.

Writing about the Marlins used to be fun. It was fun just last year. And now it's just depressing. This team could have been great, they could have built something with all the pieces that made 2023 work, and now they're just struggling. The team's most valuable player right now is Max Meyer, who made three starts then went back to Jacksonville. Nobody has a 1 WAR right now but 9 people have -0.5 and below WARs, including a guy they paid actual money for during the offseason. In fact, the Marlins are paying 44,330,000 to people who have a 0 WAR or lower. Josh Bell, Tim Anderson, Jake Burger, Christian Bethancourt, Avisail Garcia, all weighing this team down.

How does that reflect on the young players who are actually trying? Ryan Weathers has finally been given the opportunity to start every day, and he's done relatively well, with a 4.54 ERA and 34 Ks. But with no run support and a lot of superior teams, he's racked up a lot of earned runs and he's not winning many games. Jesus Luzardo's similar, the raw materials are there but without the team he's not very impressive. Trevor Rogers is 0-6. Braxton Garrett got rocked in his first start. A rotation that felt so realized even after Alcantara got hurt last year now looks lost and completely unsteady. And this is how it is with a lot of injured players reinstated. 

There are some positive production aspects. Bryan de la Cruz and Jazz Chisholm ARE doing well as power pieces. Otto Lopez and Dane Myers have been very nice off the bench. Tristan Gray is hopefully gonna come into his own, despite being a 28-year-old rookie. There's still no good hitting catchers on this team, no starter hitting over .270, and no real perennial on-base guy now that Luis Arraez is gone. And, again, this is how bad the team looks in May.

I...can only hope for some improvement, something to click, but I'm not sure if it's happening this year. And it's sad, cause they actually looked good last year. Apparently they only do this when nobody's expecting them to.

Coming Tonight: A late signer that's looking like an incredible asset playing for a bad team.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Padres

 

The San Diego Padres were 67-49 on August 10th, in decent playoff position, looking for a Wild Card spot that would likely be against the Dodgers. In the games that followed, the Padres yeeted themselves out of playoff competition, struggled to re-plant themselves as Fernando Tatis played games in the outfield, and signed the death warrant for Jayce Tingler. 

What happened? The Giants and Dodgers were better, and the cracks in this team just made themselves even clearer, despite some good trade deadline moves. 

Wil Myers is the longest tenured member of this team. This was his age-30 season, and he had some pretty pedestrian numbers after being a solid piece of the team for so long. In 146 games he hit .256 with 63 RBIs and 17 homers. 

2022 Prediction: For the last year on his contract, will end up on another club by the end of the year.

Jurickson Profar was re-upped after a successful 2020 campaign, and responded with a slight step down, hitting .227 with 80 hits in 127 games. His contact numbers have buckled, and he's found less and less space to really succeed in San Diego.

2022 Prediction: Has much fuller and consistent numbers off the bench next year. 

Tommy Pham still is chasing his Cardinals and Rays numbers, but had an improved 2021, with a 1.4 WAR, 15 home runs and 49 RBIs. Pham's ability to hit for average has diluted a great deal, and I'm not sure if he's exactly what the Padres signed up for a few years ago. 

2022 Prediction: A lower-budget signing that delivers for a middle-tier team.

In the absence of Austin Nola, Victor Caratini became the starting catcher in San Diego, after flirting with startership in Chicago. In 116 games, Caratini hit .227 with 39 RBIs and slightly subpar catching numbers. Yes, he's very much linked with Yu Darvish, but once Nola returned, he sort of faded into the back again.

2022 Prediction: Will lose even more playing time to Jorge Alfaro.

The rotation was something of a letdown this year, with only Joe Musgrove finishing with a WAR under 4.  Chris Paddack has continued his parade of letdown seasons after his 2019 come-up, this year delivering a 7-7 campaign with a 5.07 ERA. Not a great run of things.

2022 Prediction: As the rotation evolves, Paddack will be moved to the bullpen and do considerably better.

Meanwhile, 2020 playoffs call-up Ryan Weathers got 18 starts, where he had a 6.36 ERA, as well as 12 relief appearances, where he had a 2.49 ERA. I recall his father David going through a similar process in figuring out where best to be utilized before going to the pen full time.

2022 Prediction: The Padres make a decision on Ryan, and he rewards them for it.

Craig Stammen's late career renaissance continues to be astounding. In another strong year at Petco Park, Stammen had a 3.06 ERA and 83 Ks in 88 innings, along with a 1.5 WAR. For a bullpen that seems loaded every year, Stammen has been one of the surefire constants, and it's good to see him continue his strong work.

2022 Prediction: He's gonna be 38 so a few steps down, but still consistent and well-relied-upon.

Also, in his second year back from Japan, Pierce Johnson continued to be a strong bullpen option, with a 3.22 ERA and 77 Ks in 59 innings. Johnson may not have the exclamation point of his 2020 season, but he's built US consistency, and the Padres can rely on him for a bit.

2022 Prediction: More of the same, but with probably a lower ERA.

The Padres, in all their pitching woes, decided to pick up Jake Arrieta after his release from Chicago. Arrieta was putting in blah numbers with the Cubs, so they figured a change of scenery would do him good. In 4 games in San Diego, Arrieta sported a 10.95 ERA and 3 losses, and was back on the lookout very shortly afterwards.

2022 Prediction: Retirement due to lack of offers.

And a very smart trade deadline deal was getting Daniel Hudson from the Nats as their team got picked apart. Hudson was having another strong year in Washington, and ultimately his numbers hit a bit of a snag upon joining the Padres. Hudson had a 5.21 ERA with 13 earned runs, despite 27 Ks, in 19 innings.

2022 Prediction: The Dodgers get some silver-tier, not gold-tier, Hudson stuff. 

Tomorrow, some extra members of my hometown Philadelphia Phillies.