Winter Meetings Update: Mostly Gutting Edition

i feel like it's karma. A powerful Marlins slugger lands on my favorite team, so naturally another powerful Marlins slugger has to land on my LEAST favorite team.

That news, of Marcell Ozuna heading to St. Louis in exchange for Mangeuris Sierra, Sandy Alcantara, and other people that would have been helping St. Louis to another World Championship, is probably the biggest takeaway from today's Orlando going-ons. Yes, after Giancarlo Stanton was taken off the board there were a ton of little moves, and a lot of relievers winding up all over the place,  but Ozuna's move is probably the biggest one since Stanton.

The Cardinals, after a lot of unstable youth, will have an outfield of Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna and Tommy Pham in 2017. You can do a ton worse. You have hits, home runs, and speed, respectively. This is if St. Louis agrees to factor Piscotty and Grichuk into either the bench or trades. Getting rid of Sierra also works, as he was already a long shot for the starting lineup, despite clearly being ready for the show.

Also, getting Sierra and Alcantara in Miami, a city that needs youth, outfielders and pitching...damn, that might actually help the Marlins a few years down the road. For now, the Cardinals might be ferocious if Ozuna keeps on the upswing.

Meanwhile, on another squad being gutted, the Tigers were more than willing to trade Ian Kinsler, still one of the more impressive hitters out there, to Anaheim, building the Angels' surprisingly expansive 2018 roster. Kinsler will take over the hole left by free agent Brandon Phillips, and will likely replace Johnny Giavotella or Cliff Pennington or whoever was playing 2nd before Phillips got there.

Kinsler will pad the lineup with something truly impressive, as Pujols, Trout, Kinsler, Calhoun, Upton, Simmons and Ohtani TOGETHER...will, like, mash skulls. All they need is to revise the back half of the rotation, as Ohtani-Richards-Bridwell can only do so much with good luck.

Those were the big ones from today. Yes, a bunch of relievers signed, but I don't think giving millions of dollars to relievers should really be news.

Tomorrow, hopefully some more big moves will be made, and hopefully most of them won't just be relievers.

Winter Meetings Update: Day Three

Phew. Yeah. Uh, a lot happened today. Might as well detail the big stuff.

In terms of this Adam Eaton move, today was a slightly more superior sequel to yesterday, as, from Washington's standpoint, everything bad from yesterday was righted. The Nats couldn't get their hands on Chris Sale, so they landed one of the most impressive outfielders in baseball. This is...surprisingly a good deal.

The Nats' outfield was slightly weaker than usual last season, on account of Ben Revere aging 10 years over the course of 1. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Jayson Werth were gonna be the supposed starters, but with Adam Eaton coming in, one of two things will happen- either Werth, on the last year of his 7-year contract, will be phased out and be played as an alternate, or Trea Turner will be phased into an infield role, preferably at shortstop, as he's a bit better of an option than Danny Espinosa at this point. There's at least some flexibility, but it's overall a nice move for the Nats.

Additionally, this sort of rights things in Chicago as well, making sure that Lucas Giolito, who had a slow start but definitely has potential, has a place where can grow without being overshadowed. Yes, this may be wishful thinking, sorta like Carlos Rodon, but...you never know. Giolito wasn't getting 'best prospect in the system' claims for nothing. Also...who'd have thought that Giolito and Yoan Moncada, two prospects from 2016, would wind up on the same season, hurtling towards some full-rookie-seasons in 2017?

Additionally, the Cubs made a move that proves they're willing to move on from their 2016 season, while at the same time proving they're trying to win again. Yeah, not every miracle lasts forever, and Aroldis Chapman's gonna have to find somewhere else to close games next year (preferably New York).

This move, in gaining closer Wade Davis from the Royals, in exchange for consistently-suffocated outfielder Jorge Soler, is a great one. The Cubs have a definite closer/reliever that can get them through 2017, while the Royals have another outfielder, along with Billy Burns, to repopulate the now in-flux lineup, especially considering that they're suddenly shopping Lorenzo Cain.

Pretty sound move overall. Not a ton of outcry from me.

If you want outcry, watch me talk about the Rockies' move to add Ian Desmond.

I understand that the Rox needed to fill their first base position after the supposed departure of Mark Reynolds, but...Ian Desmond's an odd choice. He's a middle-infielder, and an outfielder...and converting him now to play first is a bit...concerning. No, he'll probably be great, and he's proven extreme range in his season in Arlington, but giving him a TON of money and 5 years in order to play a position he's never consistently played professionally before...is a risky bet.

I mean, offense-wise, he'll probably be fine, as it's Coors Field and it usually rewards nice-average people like Desmond, but...overall it's an odd, concerning kind of move, which...kind of sums up the Rockies of late.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are...very quietly making some decent moves. They added Jeff Locke as a late-rotation helper today, as well as adding AJ Ellis as a potential backup catcher. They're preparing for an above .500 season, and they're chasing people. They're also reportedly in the running for Aroldis Chapman...which is kind of pointless because they already have a good enough closer in A.J. Ramos, but...I'm not gonna tell the Marlins' GM how to live his life...as it'd probably kill me.

That's basically it for today, but I guarantee more crazy shit is waiting around the corner.

The Red Sox Just Won the Winter Meetings...Already

It's been a few years of this, but every single year one singular team will collect a number of new players at once, and everyone will exclaim that they're headed for the World Series, regardless of their actual state. It's been the Marlins, Blue Jays, Padres and Diamondbacks at several different times.

Today, the Red Sox got their turn...and this one's actually scaring me a bit.

Over the course of the day, they managed to add...

• Brewers reliever Tyler Thornburg, in exchange for third-baseman Travis Shaw, who'll be a big help as several aging members of the bullpen start to trickle out.
• Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland, in a contract, who'll be a defensive step up from Hanley Ramirez, and give a bit more flexibility for the DH position.
• and, most importantly, CHRIS SALE, from the White Sox, in exchange for Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Sale, paired with David Price and Rick Porcello, could be a huge part of a three-headed monster of pitchers.

Of course, there is the issue of Chris Sale's left-handedness being a hindrance as he enters Fenway Park, enemy of lefties everywhere. Sale's one of the best pitchers in the league, and I'm hoping he'll get something good out of this, but part of me is worried that, like Price, his numbers might dwindle a bit, and might not be as good as they'd be if he stuck in Chicago.

Still, all three moves combined add to a strong team basically fine-tuning itself, and preparing to be even stronger in 2017. Which...DOES NOT BODE WELL for anyone else in the division. First of all, it spells doom for Toronto, who...probably aren't going to be too impressive in 2017, Donaldson notwithstanding. Secondly, it spells doom for the Yankees, who were trying to make a comeback. Thirdly, it spells doom for the Orioles, who might not even be effective if the Sox are just gonna swat them around.

It also spells doom for the Rays, but...what the hell else is new?

Just like last season, with the Sox' additions of David Price and Craig Kimbrel, part of me's worried. The team's strong enough, but with only David Ortiz not coming back from last season, and now Pablo Sandoval looking to make a huge comeback...it's not looking good, as a Yankees fan.

Again, the good thing about these big Winter Meetings add-frenzies is that they never usually amount to immediate success...but this is the Red Sox. They've proven me wrong before. 

Winter Meetings Update: California (There is No End to Relievers) Edition

As tons of things are BOUND to happen over the next few days in the Winter Meetings, instead of doing a 'HEY, HOLY SHIT, SOMETHING HAPPENED' post every single time a move is made, which is probably migraine-inducing, I'm gonna recoup at the end of every day of these Winter talks, and recap some of the more important moves made by teams. It's a bit healthier that way.

So, the biggest statement of the day came from San Francisco, who, as is apparently custom this offseason, decided they wanted to give a HUGE contract to a relief pitcher. Fortunately, the relief pitcher in question is a reliable, trusted closer, and not a random middle reliever like Mark Rzepcynski or Brett Cecil. This is Mark Melancon, one of the most consistent, unhittable closers in the league.

This is a big step up for the Giants, who've been struggling with relief pitching for a few years, and haven't been able to get consistent success from their closers, as Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, and now Santiago Casilla have all failed to recapture even-year success. Now they have Mark Melancon, and he can be a steady closer for the next four years. On the other hand...four year deals for closers are still not the greatest idea for me, even if they are for people like Mark Melancon.

Still, I give it a good grade, and I think the Giants are playing for a stronger 2017.

On the other side of California...

This guy is not going anywhere. The Dodgers made an insanely smart move and locked up Rich Hill for the next three years. Hill is yet another reclamation project that has succeeded in both Oakland AND Los Angeles, and after a season of an insanely low ERA, some amazing starts, and some strikeout material that hasn't been present with hill since 2008, I can see why the Dodgers would want him back. Having him, Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias in the same rotation, as well as Scott Kazmir if they decide to keep him, is pretty dangerous, and can lead to some amazing things if everybody stays healthy and hot, and if the lineup's willing to back them up.

Two pretty strong developments out of the west, and a nice opener for the infamous meetings.

On the Supposed Future Dynasties of the Winter Meetings

There's a phrase that always comes up every year after the winter meetings. One or two teams will pull ahead and get a ton of players, and then everybody well say "________ are going to be huge next year, thanks to _____ and ____"

And then, the next year goes by, and that team spends it in last, with injuries to those players they spent the majority of the meetings trying to secure.

Last year it was the Yankees, after nabbing Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran, and everybody said they'd be huge in 2014. They weren't. This was the Orioles' year. The year before, it was the Blue Jays, with Buehrle, Dickey and Reyes. And then the year before that it was the Marlins. None of those teams actually made any impact the year of their mega-deal.

So when people are now saying "THE CUBS ARE GONNA OWN THE NL CENTRAL NEXT YEAR" or "THE DODGERS JUST GOT THE PIECES THEY NEEDED TO WIN THE SERIES" or even "THE RED SOX JUST MIGHT HAVE IT AGAIN", you have to think logically. You have to remember that not everything goes exactly according to plan. If that were the case, the Cubs would have twenty-nine World Series rings by now.

So, I'm going to talk about the teams that people are claiming will win it big next year, and then explore the actual probability of that happening. I'll start with the obvious pick.

Most comedians end with the one that has the most joke opportunities. Today I'm starting with the Cubs because I'm in a good mood.

So, what do we know about the Cubs now? Well, now they have a trusted, veteran manager in Joe Maddon, who is used to situations where it looks like winning is impossible. They also have a guaranteed top starter for about six years in Jon Lester. Lester, in a good year, will give you sixteen wins. However, this is the Cubs, so that number might be a little less than sixteen.

In addition, they now have Miguel Montero, a catcher that is only there to replace Wellington Castillo...who, unless I don't know something, didn't especially need a replacement, unless he busted his knees or something.

So, why won't this work? Well, because when people are freaking out about the Cubs, they're losing the big picture. All the Cubs have gained in the last month are a pitcher, a catcher and a manager. If you have that much at Spring Training, chances are you're not in good shape. And besides, a pitcher, a catcher and a manager cannot save a team that is already untrusted and scattered. There's a lot of youth in the team, a lot of youth that is still too young to succeed.

Plus, we don't know if these puzzle pieces are going to fit into the already-established dynamic in Chicago. Jon Lester may pitch a season in Chicago, and he may not get it. He may not be as strong as he was in cities like Boston and Oakland. Now, the similarity between all three cities is that all three (well, three if you count Wrigley) stadiums he'd pitched in on a regular basis have been more than fifty years old. Maybe he likes old stadiums. He could do great here, but you don't know until the season starts.

The bottom line is that even with Lester and Maddon, the Cubs are still flawed.

Next we have the Marlins. Gee, haven't we seen this one before?

Well, you have, but to a much larger scale. Instead of huge, A-listers like Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, the Marlins have picked up strong, if not as well known, players like Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Mat Latos. Not only that, they began the offseason by re-signing their huge star, Giancarlo Stanton, to a mega-contract

Now that they have stronger infield support, as well as a more fully-formed rotation of Latos, Haren, Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart, people are now claiming that the Marlins will rise up and take the NL East next year. And I have to admit it's a pretty good theory. Instead of crowding their roster with mega-contracts and huge stars, they're working more towards parts that work, rather than people to fill the stands.

Yet, like the Cubs, there's little probability that the Marlins will actually perform well in actuality next year. And the reason has nothing to do with the new players. Well, it does a little bit.

You see, the Marlins did the right thing in re-signing Giancarlo Stanton, in that the guy will give you 30+ home runs every year that he's healthy. The only downside is that Stanton is really the Marlins' only source of power. Sure, you have people like Casey McGehee and Marcell Ozuna to hit a few singles here, but it's not a power-stacked roster. Lots of young, speedy hits guys. And now, in comes Dee Gordon, another young, speedy hits guy.

Unless the Marlins focus more on power eventually, they might not make a splash next year.

The other problem the Marlins have are the Braves and Nationals. Those two teams either have made more progressive offseason moves, or have refined their already-strong roster. Going up both of these teams may be extremely difficult next year, especially considering the amount of power both teams can hold.

So, while the Marlins could be good eventually, it won't happen in 2015.

The Red Sox also are getting some mentions for 'could be amazing now'. Mainly because they just added three pitchers, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley and Rick Porcello, to their previously vacant pitching rotation. In addition to this, they already slid Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval into some empty roster spots.

The problem here is one that the last few potential dynasties haven't really had to deal with- age.

Miley and Porcello don't really count here- they're both in their 20's, and they'll be fine if they keep up their numbers. Ramirez, Sandoval, and especially Masterson, will be in trouble, because they're all in their thirties (Masterson will be 30 next year), they both have had injury-prone seasons in the last few years, and they are both being asked to start games in high-pressure Boston.

The Yankees had this problem last year with Carlos Beltran, and he was injured for a lot of the season. Ellsbury and McCann were fine, but underwhelming. The same thing could happen in Boston this year.

I'd go over the Padres, but one aging slugger does not a playoff team make.

So, those are your potential dynasties debunked. Sorry to ruin Christmas, kids, but if you look at it realistically, it's just potential.