Brew Approach

 

First of all, before I forget: lol mets.

Yeah, Wade Miley throwing six shutout innings while Max Scherzer implodes and both Brian Anderson and Garrett Mitchell have two-homer days is...the single most apt monkey's paw karma of everything the Mets tried to do to make themselves better this year. Oh it's so delicious. Oh man.

Alright. The Brewers. Right.

I think by this point, the Brewers have realized that they're not gonna be Christian Yelich's team anymore, that he's gonna just be an ensemble player since he's come down from his MVP seasons, and so the real stars of the show are gonna be the pitchers. And so far, these guys have been the stars, with Freddy Peralta annihilating the Mets the other day, Brandon Woodruff and Eric Lauer looking sharp, Devin Williams still being as dominant as ever in the ninth and unsung guys like Gus Varland and Matt Bush impressing immediately. The only real pitcher that hasn't been absolutely stellar so far has been, surprisingly, Corbin Burnes, the ace, but it's early and I reckon he'll find his stuff eventually.

And with Yelich doing his usual post-2019 thing and batting .200, that means the other elements of this lineup can be the hero at times, and one of the biggest ones going into the year has been Brian Anderson, the former oft-injured Marlins infielder. Anderson was stellar in 2018 and 2019, then he started getting hurt and the team no longer had a use for him. Anderson has also slowly morphed from a mostly-contact guy to more of a power hitter, and I think that scared the contact-friendly Marlins. In Milwaukee, which is pretty balanced between contact and power, Anderson fits a lot better, and so far he's hitting .533 with a league-leading 10 RBIs, 3 homers and 8 hits in 15 at-bats. This does come with the asterisk of 'yes, well it's the first week', but it's still numbers we haven't seen from this guy since before the pandemic.

There's also been great performances by both rookies, Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer, who've been great contact additions that have had excellent first weeks. At the same time, Jesse Winker is already looking like an improvement from his 2022 season, and has 5 RBIs already. I think after yesterday, Garrett Mitchell's one of the biggest 'what if he's this good all the time' pieces for this team, because while he was decent coming up last season, he's been given a lot more to do this year and he's already looking like he's up to the challenge.

I admittedly wrote off the Brewers going into this season, because I didn't see enough of this lineup working without the sure bets of previous years, but if all these contact guys keep working and if these rookies build on this as we go, this team could make the Wild Card race pretty interesting.

Especially if, uh, they have to go against the Mets in the playoffs. Who would want that, right?

Coming Tomorrow- I've been trying not to do too many obvious ones this early in the season...tomorrow that changes.

The Twins' Gamble At First

 

It was a decision I didn't get when it happened, and it's a decision I still don't get now. As good as Pablo Lopez is, why trade the infielder of the future for him and then get a risk of a free agent to take his place at first?

The Twins, this season, are working with an infield that consists of Jorge Polanco [or, for the moment, Nick Gordon], Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda. Mostly homegrown, defensively-adequate, contact-hitting and very much on the same page. I think that having Luis Arraez as the 3B, or even 1B, piece would complement this infield...a hell of a lot better than Joey Gallo, who hasn't even been an infielder since, like, 2017. 

And so, while it didn't surprise me in the least that Arraez had gotten off to a great start in Miami, it surprised me somewhat that Joey Gallo was off to an uproarious start in Minneapolis. I saw him in Spring Training, he wasn't hitting then, I assumed he wasn't going to magically figure out how to hit again for the first time since mid-2021. And yet in his first 4 games, Gallo has had 3 homers, 7 RBIs and is batting .308.  And despite not being a natural first baseman, he has yet to give up an error.

The people I've talked to in the last few days are convinced that Gallo will even out and get back to hitting .220 with 175 strikeouts, and while I agree with them, I also think that he's at least due for something of a comeback season now that he's away from larger markets like New York or LA. Like Josh Hamilton, Gallo succeeded in Arlington, a lower-key market, and Minneapolis has a similar amount of sports pressure [even with the 30+ year sports title drought]. So I genuinely think he'll have a decent year at the plate.

But...compare him to Luis Arraez and you still come up short. Arraez is a versatile fielder, meaning he doesn't 'end up' places in the field like Gallo has. He'll do some games at 2nd, some games at third, some games at 1st. So far the Marlins are using him at 2nd, and that's his best position. Arraez is also a superior contact hitter...to Joey Gallo [it's so odd typing that out]. Arraez right now is hitting .478 [Maeda limited him a bit] and has 11 hits through 6 games. And even if the Marlins are looking relatively dire right now, Arraez is far and away the best piece of them, and I can't imagine how much he'd be aiding the Twins right now if they hadn't traded him.

It's not like the Twins will be TERRIBLY wounded without Arraez, as they look like how they'll have a decent team this year judging by how strong the pitching has been, but I just think about how shortsighted that move was, and how sneaky Kim Ng was to make a deal that the Twins thought they won when they really lost. I hope both Arraez and Gallo keep things up, even if it's highly unlikely.

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of Marlins, a former Marlins infielder who seems to have found his stuff again in a new market.

The Cole Nine Yards

 

Okay, 4 games into the season and I'm honestly pretty pleased with my New York Yankees. Only real sour spots have been turns by Clarke Schmidt and IKF, Judge, Stanton and Torres have 2 homers apiece, and the only thing keeping us out of first are those farshtunkener Rays. All in all, could be a ton worse.

I think the biggest cause for relief so far has been Gerrit Cole, honestly. I saw him in a Spring Training start in mid-March and he looked really good then, striking out everybody and only getting back to his late-start tendencies a little bit. Cole is 32 years old, is coming off the first mediocre season since before his Astros days, and, most notably, tore off his trademark longer hairdo in exchange for a more kept, trimmed back of the head. 

I mean, hey, it worked for Jacob deGrom, so I get it.

Gerrit Cole beginning the season by going 6 innings, striking out 11 and only allowing 3 hits, let alone any runs, is the single best thing for this team, with no offense meant towards Volpe doing well or Judge hitting a ton of homers or whatnot. If our ace is good, and like, classic-good, then that's one less big thing we have to worry about, and I can sleep at night. 

The tricky part, at least until Severino, Rodon and Montas come back, is gonna be rotation depth. Because right now, I trust Cole, I trust Nestor Cortes, and I believe I trust Jhony Brito, especially after he proved he was MLB ready in his first start with the team. But like...beyond that we have Clarke Schmidt, who was given the second game of the year and couldn't cut it, and we have Domingo German, who HAS BEEN good, and CAN BE good, but I never know which one we're gonna get.

I mean, German is at least a better rotation pick than Matt Strahm, who the Phillies are starting tonight because Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez are injured. But at least Strahm has been relatively consistent the last few years. German could be really nice, but it's not guaranteed.

The Yankees went into this season with sky-high expectations and hopes, and so far the team looks extremely good, and even the depth guys like Franchy Cordero and Kyle Higashioka are succeeding. They've looked good against the Giants and Phillies, two teams that are competing this year, and considering how the Phillies looked against the Rangers, it's nice that we haven't wilted yet. 

Hopefully the team keeps this energy up, because I do like this feel-good vibe for this team, and I hope it improves once the injured pitchers return.

Coming Tonight: Yeah...yeah, the Twins reeeeally shouldn't have given him up.

Leave No Trayce

 

Trayce Thompson's career trajectory is a lot like his brother Klay's team, the Golden State Warriors. He was very very good, and then out of nowhere he just instantly stopped being good for a couple of years, the league moved on, and now all of the sudden he's extremely good again as if the last few years didn't just happen. 

In Trayce's case, he had a decent rookie season as a member of the Chicago White Sox, was collateral damage in the deal that brought Todd Frazier to Chicago, and had a very starry season as a bench bat for the Dodgers in 2016. That was the last notable thing he did for 6 years. He spent that period tanking in both the majors and the minors, failing even with the White Sox, missing all of the 2020 season because he was still basically a minor leaguer, somehow figuring out how to hit home runs again in Columbus and Iowa, struggling for the Cubs and Padres, and was bottoming out in Toledo before the Dodgers brought him back.

And then, naturally, once he was back in LA, Trayce Thompson played some of the best baseball he'd ever played, hitting .268 with 38 RBIs and 13 homers in 74 games. It baffled me. How was Thompson back NOW, and why was it with the Dodgers again? Why and how? Apparently it was a mix of circumstances and new tactics. And now, after 3 games of 2023, he's responsible for a 3-homer game and leads the league in RBIs with 8. 

I...Trayce Thompson's on a team with Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman and he's really hitting better than all of them right now. Blows my mind.

As a Thompson skeptic, I am gonna be spending the rest of the month waiting for the other shoe to drop. Because this can't be real, can it? Did Trayce Thompson really just bottom out for 6 years and then suddenly remember how to hit major league pitching? Is this a more nepotism-y version of Rich Hill?

The Dodgers themselves are doing well so far, and are getting the most out of newcomers like David Peralta, James Outman and Miguel Rojas. Look, this isn't the homegrown masterpiece that a lot of prior Dodgers teams were, and it may be slightly artificial, but I do see them doing well this year. They're certainly doing better than the Padres right now, so maybe that's a sign that I was off pre-season.

Coming Tomorrow- Local ace can't stop throwing strikes; film at 11.

The French Connection

 

In fairness to the Mariners, who have begun the season 1-3, I wouldn't do well against Shohei Ohtani in his prime either.

Look, people have made the joke for years 'Mike Trout hit 5 homers and Shohei Ohtani broke a 100-year-old record as the Angels lost', but the tide, at least in April, seems to be turning, as with a better rotation and with both Ohtani and Trout healthy, the Angels are tough right now. And even if you're the Mariners, who people predict are gonna do big things this year, that's hard to combat.

And it's not like the M's are doing particularly badly, either. Pretty much everybody's been hitting something, and the big guns like Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Cal Raleigh are performing as they should. You also have Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert, the two starters that the Mariners were hoping for the biggest things from, already looking fantastic after one start. The problem is that it's gonna take a little while longer for some of the contact guys, like Kolten Wong, J.P. Crawford and, well, Jarred Kelenic, to start hitting.

It's also a little scary that we have this whole power core built up with France, Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, and only France is hitting well so far, with 3 RBIs and an Opening Day homer. Yes, it's week 1 and they'll likely catch up, but if you don't show up against the Angels, who might be a good team, who will you be there for?

Also discouraging is the fact that Robbie Ray, one start into his season, is going on the IL. Something about throwing hard for like 4 full seasons in a row sort of tires the arm out, I dunno. If they didn't have Chris Flexen around to start games in his place, I'd be more worried, but Robbie Ray was Mr. Consistency for them last year, and hopefully they'll be still alright without him. Yes, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are also consistent, but...I dunno, this worries me.

I want to see how the Mariners fully develop over the course of the month, and what pieces start working. I want this team to compete, and outdo their 2022 selves, and I want them to convince me that they can.

Coming Tomorrow- The guy that hit 3 homers the other night.

Year Two of the Reds' Rebuild

 

In a year where the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are all looking to compete, the Reds' main goal for 2023 is just to be better than they were last year. Which, for a team that let loose most of its main talent prior to the 2022 season, is a somewhat reachable goal. 

I do think that the Reds are gonna have people this season that do succeed, not on a Reds level but on a baseball level. Jonathan India is already looking very hot in his first few games, and seems to be one of the only forces of pure contact left in the lineup [along with Jake Fraley]. Alexis Diaz, now being the only Diaz brother active in the league, will likely have a fantastic season in the ninth. And judging from his start yesterday, I think Nick Lodolo is gonna have a fuller, more impressive season. 7 hits and 2 earned runs, yes, but 9 Ks. Greene is gonna be the showier guy with more strikeouts and OMG moments but Lodolo might have the more bare-bones solid season, that is if both men stay healthy.

What's gonna weigh this team down is the combination of replacement players and middling prospects at major positions. Even with the knowledge that Joey Votto will eventually return, seeing Jason Vosler at first is a little unsettling, and though, yes, Vosler has kicked around for years and was posting decent numbers with the Giants last year, he's not Joey Votto, and he's still a replacement player. And so far he hasn't really done anything for the Reds. Same with other replacement-type choices like Jose Barrero, Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild. More disappointing still is T.J. Friedl's slow start, as he was handed a big role after breaking out last year. If the expectation is for Friedl to join Stephenson, Fraley and India in the heart of the lineup, he's gonna need to figure stuff out very soon.

I think the one replacement rookie guy that has some promise, at least so far, is Spencer Steer, who the Reds got last year in exchange for Tyler Mahle. He homered in the opener, and has been well sought after by Reds fans ever since arriving in Cincinnati. I think he's gonna have some cool moments for them this year, and slowly make his way up the lineup as he proves himself more and more. 

There's still a lot that's gonna keep the Reds from being truly great this year, but there's also a lot of new stuff that makes me think they won't lose 100 games again, and will keep doing the right things to rebuild.

Where Free Agents Go To Die

 

Eduardo Rodriguez, in making his Opening Day start for the Tigers the other day, reminded me that for three consecutive years, the Opening Day start went to Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann had an 18.9 combined WAR between 2011 and 2015 through strong work with the Washington Nationals, and made virtually all of his starts in that period. After the 2015 season he signs a huge 5-year deal with the Tigers, then proceeds to have a 2.0 WAR in that stretch, lasting the exact same period of time. There he struggled with injuries, high ERAs and less-fantastic teams, and limped along until having an even worse go of it in Milwaukee in 2021.

And so here's Eduardo Rodriguez, the Opening Day starter, who was one of the Red Sox' most reliable arms from 2018 til 2021, was a rock even when people started getting injured, and, like Zim, peaked with a 19-win season. And now he's signed a long deal with the Detroit Tigers, was mediocre in his first season and missed some time and...I feel like we've been through all of this before.

Basically what this has led me to hypothesize is that if you don't play for the Detroit Tigers, and your idea of solving free agency is signing with the Detroit Tigers, it's not going to go very well for you. This is what I'm seeing with Javier Baez. One can make the argument, like I will, that he peaked in 2018-2019 and everything else has been, while decent, not quite as good as that peak period. Baez was still very helpful last season, but Baez hit 31 homers in 2021 and hit a team-leading 17 in 2022. Is it the Tigers, is it Baez's trajectory, who knows? But even as Baez could be on track for a decent year, the specter of the contract is flying over him, and people are wondering if he'll live up to it.

The Tigers' contracts didn't always use to be like this. Torii Hunter signed a mini-deal with the Tigers, over the Yankees, and people thought he'd mellow out, but he saved his career and became a hero again. Magglio Ordonez signed a big deal with the Tigers, and even if he eventually petered off, he sported some MVP-caliber numbers throughout the mid-2000s. And Miguel Cabrera's initial Tigers contract was insanely lucrative for all involved parties, but after the 2015 season, where the team fell apart, the Tigers re-signed him to a deal that's gone to this year, and...in that time, Cabrera's had a 2.9 WAR. 

Cabrera had a 5.1 WAR in 2016. Every other season has either been barely above replacement level or negative values. Even if they got one good season out of this deal, every single other season, from 2017 onward, has been a mythology season. Yes, he's not playing well, but he's Miguel Cabrera. 

These are the only three mega-contracted players on the Tigers, and they've all been disappointments since those contracts. Even some of the little ones, like Schoop or Turnbull, have had disappointing seasons on it. I wish this was a problem this team knew how to solve, because this is downright spooky. 

The good news is there are these younger players, like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, who could hopefully inherit the team and be signed to extensions. It just might be a bit before we get there. But it's a much safer reality than signing great players and having them do nothing for you.