Keeping Distance

 
As I write this, both the Braves and the Rays, who've been leading their respective divisions for the majority of the summer, now have a competitor 3.5 games behind them. Both teams have lost a ton of ground in the last few weeks. The Rays dropped 5 of 7 games to the Orioles, one of which I was in attendance for and was truly glorious. The Braves are 6-10 since the start of the Yankees series back on August 7th, and despite a nice showing last night against the Dodgers, are in danger of being lapped. 

Of the two, the Braves probably have the better team, or moreover the one with better infrastructure. The current incarnation of the team has Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Murphy and A.J. Smith-Shawver all healthy, for once. Now, forget for a moment that none of them are playing especially well. The infrastructure is still there. Mike Yastrzemski and Lane Thomas are all on hand to prevent against Acuna getting hurt again. Jim Jarvis just went down but something tells me he'll be back soon enough to buttress Dubon and Kim. The point of getting Tyler Mahle was to ensure that A.J. Smith-Shawver wasn't gonna overtax himself trying to be that strong fifth man, and Mahle's honestly been a better answer, he's 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 23 Ks in 4 starts, better arguably than his Giants numbers. 

I did get to see Ronald Acuna hit a homer a few weeks ago. It was during a loss. So him doing his flapping his arms schtick and clowning around, even during a loss, that doesn't work as well. That works when they're all playing well as a unit, or when Acuna's having a 40-70 season or something, but not when he's trying to salvage another mid year. It's clear he's still a great talent but he's not consistent. Every year either he's gonna give you gold or hobble through half the season and be alright for the rest of it. This year he's not the main takeaway from this Braves team, Baldwin and Olson are. And I'm not sure how he is with that.

The Rays, meanwhile, came into prominence after steadily climbing the division and going on a streak once the Yankees went cold. They've sustained the momentum for most of the season, but they're 4-7 since the A's series ended [along with a 9 game winning streak], and 5 of those games, as discussed, came at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The other two came from another division rival, the Blue Jays, so it really just adds insult to injury. Freddy Peralta's still struggling like he did in New York, the bullpen's beginning to turn again despite Bryan Baker leading the league in saves with 38 [he did give up the double to Dylan Beavers that sunk the game I went to though], Aranda and Diaz are beginning to calm down a tad, and the magic of late June through July may be wearing off. 

I want to stress that there's still a lot that works about this Rays team though. Getting Liam Hicks was a really savvy decision, as he's an excellent contact hitter that went yard when I was in Baltimore. He's not a great catcher, but he hits better than Nick Fortes does. Ryan Vilade is a big, well-built truck of a man who isn't terrific in right but hits pretty well, with 11 homers and 37 RBIs. He's somewhat limited but he's a great role player, a lot like Jonny DeLuca honestly. Chandler Simpson is leading the AL in steals with 35, and he leads it in triples with 6, though still no home runs. And of course, Junior Caminero's having another phenomenal year, with 35 homers and 84 RBIs. The man is a star.

Here's what I'll say, regarding who gets caught. The Yankees have a higher probability of catching the Rays than the Phillies have of catching the Braves, because the Phillies have forgotten they're a baseball team more often than the Yankees have. The Yanks just got Cody Bellinger back, Max Fried should be on the way, and they're gonna keep getting stronger. The Phillies had a nice week back there but now they're waking up the Mariners and some of the same issues are still at play. I still think the Braves are a better team than the Phillies, and the Dodgers series is proving it. The Yankees might be on the same level as the Rays, and could get very close to lapping them if current trends hold. 

Coming Tonight: One of the most consistent hitters of the decade in a Cleveland team that, need I remind you, has also had Jose Ramirez on it. 

Whatever Motivates You...

 

I did not think it would take signing Edwin Diaz for Tanner Scott to become a great closer again.

Not that he was bad last year, but around midway through, things hit a snag. 23 saves is all well and good, but he kept blowing them, and ended the year with a 4.74 ERA and a -0.6 WAR. Yes, he still won a ring, but he saw no playoff time with the Dodgers because the team was too scared to actually use its bullpen, so they had like 4 other starters do all the relief work, gaming the system. Scott, at his peak with Miami, was one of the most effective relief pitchers in the game. To be perfectly honest, him not always succeeding as a closer isn't really a knock on him, as he's arguably just better as a setup man. Those 23 saves he got last season while tanking were a career high for him, so I think being a better closer involves not doing all the things that make him a great reliever. It's kind of screwed up. 

So moving Scott back to a setup role wasn't exactly a death sentence, and to be fair it worked alright for Blake Treinen. But then Edwin Diaz absolutely flounders in LA, leaving the ninth open and plenty of opportunities for Scott to save games. So he's been a ton better this year, with a 2.24 ERA, 19 saves and 64 Ks. He feels elite again, and he's stayed extremely consistent. Being surrounded by Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia and Brock Stewart also helps, as they've all been fantastic in relief roles. 

For the Dodgers, the return of Tyler Glasnow means the overpopulation of the rotation is once again a factor, because nowYamamoto, Skubal, Snell and Glasnow are non-negotiable, and it's down to either Roki Sasaki, who's not terrific but still good enough, and Eric Lauer, who asked to be traded from Toronto due to being made to do long relief appearances, for that last spot. AND at some point Shohei Ohtani is expected to start games again, so that'll make it even more crowded. I really do think going for a skeleton crew formation for now, emphasizing Yamamoto, Snell, Skubal and Glasnow, and priming the other two for relief roles in the playoffs, is the way. That way if Ohtani is ready to start again by the postseason, at worst that means you'd be using Glasnow in long relief as well, and that's...still pretty nice, despite how shaky Glasnow's seemed tonight.

The Dodgers have won six straight after a messy mid-August, but these six have been against the Rockies and Pirates. This week is the Braves, who are still quite good, and the Tigers who are really sneaky and are looking good against the Rays right now. From there they play a lot of teams that could be spoilers, from the Nats to the Marlins to the Reds. The Dodgers want that top seed, or at least enough security and momentum to make October as easy as the last two, and without Shohei Ohtani's usual batting dominance [he's ONLY hitting .288 with ONLY 30 homers and 80 RBIs, the madman], the team will need to try harder than usual. It's looking trickier now that Andy Pages is hurt and both catchers are still out for another week, but they're trying everything. Alek Thomas is now starting in center, giving the outfield a combined WAR of 0.0. Kyle Tucker might be an albatross around this team's neck if he doesn't start hitting, because at least Bobby Abreu would do some hitting when you signed him. Tucker has a .689 OPS. Miguel Rojas, who's about to retire and manage somebody probably, has a .720. Ye gods.

I'm not as mad as I am at the Astros that the team's still a frontrunner, because there's so much that's elite about this team, the runs have no problem getting scored and the depth is there, I just don't think they're the best team in baseball right now. The Dodgers might be playing more defense standings-wise than they're used to this year, and they'll need to really dial in if they want that threepeat, because right now there's one or two teams that might want the NL more.

Coming Tomorrow- A man that is all torso, all neck and all business. 

On the Precipice of Another Yanks-Stros Series

 

So here's what we know. When it doesn't count, the Yankees have a winning record against the Astros. Regular season play we win a lot of our series' against them now. This season the Astros lost their first series against the Yankees back in April. Admittedly that was when we still had Aaron Judge but it's okay now because Heliot Ramos and his negative batting average is here. 

It is now late August, and both teams have playoff considerations. One team is on a relatively strong run right now, and the other team has been shakily bobbing back and forth between 1st and 2nd on a sub-.500 record. One team is getting stronger as more people come back, and one team just fired their GM and traded away a starting pitcher in a year they really needed starting pitching.

What I'm saying is I'm worried.

Tonight, the Astros are starting a rookie named Ethan Pecko, a guy from Upper Darby who, between him and Adam Macko, ensure that Texas will now lead the union in names I cannot take seriously. ETHAN PECKO. Sounds like a side character in an Animaniacs sub-character segment. The Goodfeathers take on Ethan Pecko in Breakfast: Impossible. He did fine in his debut last week, but gave up the sole two runs of the game against the Angels, meaning the bullpen, which has been snakebitten but improving, had to save the day. Considering that Peter Lambert and Hayden Wesneski are playing big roles for this rotation, why not Ethan Pecko? I'll remind you that Cristian Javier is struggling to stay unhit, Ronel Blanco's chilling in the minors after an 8 ERA, Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai aren't allowed to start anymore and Spencer Arrighetti's now helping a team I don't hate make a playoff run. And that these rotations used to be so packed that Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia would barely make the cut. But sure, Ethan Pecko.

I feel similarly about Cam Smith, one of the go-to outfield bats for the Astros now. He's been here all season and he's hitting .215 with a .671 OPS, despite 17 homers and 48 RBIs. This outfield has seen George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker, and now it's basically down to Cam Smith to keep things moving, and...he's a sharp enough player but right now he doesn't compare. And the team desperately needs him to. At least Jeremy Pena has covered for Carlos Correa excellently, and is having a terrific year despite missing time. At least Yordan Alvarez is probably winning an MVP as a rare returning Astro who can actually do what he's supposed to. If there's no support, and a lot of okay options rather than strong ones at multiple spots, there's no point.

There's still a chance the Astros can win the division, because the Rangers are similarly noncommittal and the Mariners seem to have decided to punt. But I really think it's an uphill battle with this specific squad. I'm still very worried they can outdo the Yankees this week and get rolling, but I just don't see the vision with this team going deep.

Coming Tonight: He was given the ninth in a huge market last season, and he struggled. So they got someone else. Then that someone else shat the bed big time and now the other guy's a great closer again.

Murph-ection

 

Heading into what could be the last MLB postseason before a lockout, there's one thing that the majority of MLB fans are hoping for, and that's a thwarted threepeat. The Dodgers winning isn't interesting anymore. Not that it isn't cool for the team with Shohei Ohtani to win rings, no that's fine, but it's not interesting that it keeps happening despite all the other more interesting stories coming out of the woodwork. The Dodgers are supposed to be the place-setter that other teams subvert. It didn't happen last year, even if it arguably should have.

So here we are again. The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball, and the Brewers currently have a better record than them. This week they have to play the Mets, perennial spoilers, and the Rangers, who are likely just about to decide they'd like to win the AL West after all, and- NO, DON'T CLOSE THE STREETS DOWN YET, LOS ANGELES.

I think I look for so much logic in baseball, a very illogical pastime, and I always expect the top team to face some bit of difficulty getting to the end since this is a larger playoff schematic, and...well, the ones I root for always do. So I try to expect something different given the recent subversions and changes and I still get gobsmacked by a trite, unexpected outcome that...ultimately is the most expected outcome.

The Brewers are currently the best team in baseball. They haven't been to a World Series since the 1980s. They've been to three NLCSs since 2010. They have a team with the depth to withstand just about anything. I really want this to happen.

Logan Henderson is a big piece of 'why this year', because it took him a while to stay healthy, and it took the Brewers a while to find room for him, but the stars aligned. This year he's been phenomenal, with an 8-2 record, a 2.60 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP in 13 starts. He's looking confident, durable and exactly as advertised. Misiorowski is obviously the takeaway, he's on a Cy Young path, and Harrison is a really nice, consistent second option, but having Henderson there as the strong third option makes for a really winning October combination. And Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser and Dustin May aren't too bad either. A whole onslaught of really impressive arms, plus arguably one of the best bullpens in baseball. Like, when even losing Abner Uribe doesn't really wound the unit, that's when you know you're alright.

And beyond that, the core of Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, William Contreras, Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell is truly excellent. Chourio's still one of the most unstoppable young players in the league, Bauers is having a career year and might get to 25 homers, and nearly everybody is hitting. Luis Lara and Cooper Pratt are also both contributing and having excellent moments. Lara's a great contact hitter with great outfield coverage, and Pratt's already making shortstop his own, despite the recent surge from Joey Ortiz. The talent runs so deeply, and the forward progress is across the board.

I really think the Brewers can go deep this year, and learn from the 2025 loss to become even better going forward. Obviously the MLB itself would prefer a Dodgers win...but a Brewers win might be even cooler.

Coming Tomorrow- A second-year outfield bat from a team nobody is stopping from winning the division. 

...Just to Keep From Being Thrown to the Wolves

 

The White Sox have about five weeks left to cement the unthinkable. In a year where the Tigers, Royals and Guardians were all expected to compete, they are still hanging onto first place for dear life, on the strength of a bunch of 20-year-olds, a Japanese rookie who hits dingers, and a ton of really close games and walk-offs. For a team this streaky and basic, it's not gonna be over til they wave the flag, and they need to keep from coming apart. This is year one of the competitive White Sox experiment, and they want to take this as far as they can.

Already you're beginning to see a few of the strings come undone. After being one of the best pitchers of the first half, Davis Martin has slowed down and will be missing time with an injury. Sean Burke has stepped up in his stead, and Anthony Kay, Erick Fedde and Luis Castillo are doing what they can to support him, but...you see the issue, right? The hook of this rotation was that it was centered around the youth movement. Now Noah Schultz, David Sandlin and Shane Smith are all sitting in the minors rather than supplanting the older, shakier rotation options. The fear is that those guys aren't much better, and recently Schultz and Sandlin have gotten roughed up, but it's worth a shot, right? We saw Shane Smith's highs. He hasn't been TERRIFIC in Charlotte but he's still a confident enough young arm. Hagen Smith is also around, but the team is very hesitant to let him start, and I'm still not sure why, considering he was doing pretty well at that in the minors until someone got the bright idea to start using him in relief. You don't see the Mariners doing that with Kade Anderson, right? No, they started him, and it worked. This is what the Pirates did with Bubba Chandler last year, and I don't think that worked for them either.

I think the idea is just to outhit everybody and hope that still works, and judging from all the walk-offs that's been doing the trick. Jake Rogers had the big one the other night, the blast so incredible that one lady in the crowd nearly showered the contents of her purse all over the field level seats. Yesterday was Tristan Peters's turn, he had a walk-off homer. Two guys are closing in on 30 homers, and a 3rd ain't too far off. The depressing part is the lack of catching stability but Rogers and Romo are doing what they can.

An underrated piece of this team this year is Andrew Benintendi, who's been around since before the rebuild. Benny was supposed to be a huge piece of those competitive Red Sox teams going forward, and has wound up as the least accomplished of the Killer B's, with his speed basically gone, his contact ability waning and his defense nonexistent. All that remains is a halfway decent power hitter, and with 13 homers and 64 RBIs he's been that. It's not pretty, and he's not on target as much as his contemporaries, but he's got a role to fill, and he's filling it pretty well. 

The Sox have to play fellow AL competitors the Rangers and Twins coming up, and hopefully they can stave off the Guardians for that playoff spot. Nothing's over in this division til the Guardians say it's over, and the Tigers aren't completely out of it either, so hopefully this Sox team can be in it for the long haul.

Coming Tonight: Once he figured out how to stay healthy, and once the team found room for him on the MLB roster, the big game stuff was bound to show up.

The Right Time to Duck Out?

 

Last year, Bo Bichette helped the Blue Jays get to a World Series. Then he left in free agency. Now, from the looks of things, neither his new team nor his former team will be making the playoffs at all. The Mets are out of it, the Jays are a game or so behind but not looking great. Was this trip really necessary?

Let's look at Bo's numbers with the Mets this year. He's hitting .268 with 14 homers, 66 RBIs and 101 strikeouts. His atrocious defense has followed him from Toronto to New York, and now at third he's not really in his element, in addition to the shaky hitting numbers. It's not like this is the first flaw for Bo, his 2024 was kinda rough too, but in the first year of a new contract, he was expected to play a large role in the Mets' run, and despite not getting injured [unlike most of the rest of the team], he's made only a light impact. 1 win above replacement despite 550 at-bats. Reminds me a bit of how his dad's first year in Cincinnati went. Admittedly I don't think he's as bad of a fielder as Dante was, but it hasn't been doing him any favors.

And in a season where so many pieces have gotten injured, a lot has been on Bo, and he's only done so much. And now some of the guys who got injured are beginning to do the work anyway. Luis Robert hit two moonshots yesterday. Francisco Alvarez seems to be hitting again. Marcus Semien's been piling up cheesy power. Sean Manaea's had a bunch of decent starts. Even Kodai Senga seems to be working as a closing option somehow. But Bo seems to just be kind of there. I'm not saying that's how the whole contract will go, assuming he doesn't opt out [who am I kidding, he's toast]. But it's an uneven step for a career that seemed to be on a strong path just last year.

Yet I don't think things would have gone too differently had Bo stayed in Toronto. It's been a similar story- Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, Lukes and Sanchez have all spent time on the IL, and it's dulled the output tremendously. The difference is that the rare 500+ at-bat guy, Ernie Clement, is not only having a nice season but feels central to so much of the action. That's why he was the top vote-getter in the AL. He's a terrific contact hitter with nice defensive perks and everybody loves him. It's not as if the fans have given up on Vlad Jr., there's still room for him to improve given all the equity, but all wasn't exactly lost without Vlad's better numbers. This team still has a 25+ home run guy, even if it is Kazuma Okamoto admittedly slightly off his game from the usual averages. 

But I feel like if Bo was on this team, he'd be doing the same thing, and it would be a 'what is going on with the Jays' year, cause he and Vlad would be struggling at the same time. And that's not good if you're the defending AL champions. Even if you have call-up stories like Brett Bateman and Charles McAdoo coming around, or Jose Soriano making the most of the deadline gambit, or the continued inevitability of Dylan Cease stealing the Cy Young out from under Cam Schlittler's fingertips, if the marquee guys aren't cutting it, there's an issue.

I'll give the Jays this- Alejandro Kirk has been making up for lost time, and he's on fire recently, with 7 homers, 28 RBIs and a .283 average in 55 games. Once again he feels like his old self, and while it's nice to have Brandon Valenzuela around for the security, Kirk is the #1 catching option for a reason, and can still be relied upon. In something of a lost year, even if there's still a chance of making the playoffs, that's at least a plus.

Who knows where Bo and the Jays will go next year. I see Bo making improvements and reclaiming the narrative on a team that isn't the Mets, and I see the Jays reforming and contending again. Who knows how accurate that read is though.

Coming Tomorrow- I never thought he'd end up as a fairly average power DH after how impressive he looked as a rookie, but I suppose this is how things are going.

Rockie Business as Usual

 

The best thing you can say about the Rockies this year is that they are no longer historically bad. They are no longer 'worst ever' bad. They are just plain bad, which works I suppose.

Every so often you do hear of something good happening to this team, like a Jake McCarthy multi-homer day or a Hunter Goodman RBI masterclass, or Mickey Moniak still doing something cool. So the Rockies can still hit for power. That helps I suppose. You're in Denver, why not? The defense is still kind of atrocious, you've got Karros, McCarthy, Johnston and Moniak all doing well enough at the plate then drawing straws to see who gets to DH. Ezequiel Tovar's defense used to be a perk, but he's just not good at anything this year. The only really good defender on this team is T.J. Rumfield, and everyone else is average or below average. 

Willi Castro is pretty indicative of the issues here. He is a career utility man, and can play a few different positions, but the trick is that he's got to be able to play them well. At second base he is decent I suppose, but he's losing defensive runs and doesn't have the range you'd expect. He's playing 2nd more often than not because Edouard Julien didn't work there [what a shocker], and the cool thing is, seeing as this is Denver, his power numbers are up. He's got 14 homers and 53 RBIs, plus a .423 SLG, which isn't Moniak or Goodman levels but is still good. It helps that this team has pure contact guys like Troy Johnson and Kyle Karros in addition to the power core.

Losing Hunter Goodman for a bit is a pretty harsh blow, but the Rockies have been moving some guys around from the minors. Zac Veen is up again, and he's been doing better than last time, with 2 homers, 7 RBIs and a .263 average in 8 games. Connor Norby's up after the trade for Victor Vodnik, he's hitting .269 with some of his usual contact success. I'm not sure if he's gonna be a working piece for them going forward, seeing as he's sort of limited defensively, but the contact numbers certainly help. I'm not sure if Jordan Beck's gonna be a thing for them sadly, he's still a sub-.200 hitter without much versatility. Brett Sullivan's a decent enough backup catcher that also is an above-average pitcher in blowouts. And for some reason, after failing to keep anything down in Los Angeles or Philly, somehow it is DENVER that levels Jordan Romano, as he's got 8 saves in 14 opportunities, and seems to have the position despite many younger options. 

The Rockies are still kind of a mess. I have no idea what this rotation will look like going forward because there's no slam dunk options, and Chase Dollander constantly had to be opened for and still got hurt. If they can't get a halfway decent rotation together, in Coors Field, they're just gonna be like this for the rest of the decade, and again...there's a way of avoiding this that nobody in the front office wants to approach. So for now, enjoy the mildly interesting shitshow and let's hope there's some level of improvement.

Coming Tonight: He missed a lot of time for Toronto, but he's certainly been making up for it in the last few weeks.