On a Heavily-Roofed World Series

 

Any attempt made by the media to dissuade you from enjoying a World Series featuring two #1 seeds that aren't the Dodgers should end immediately. There is so much that's interesting about a Rays-Brewers World Series, even beyond the fact that neither of these teams have ever won, or neither of these teams are large market.

Because you think about what these two teams have in common, and you get some answers like 'they both play in roofs' or 'they're both in markets that enjoy Culver's' or 'they both had concerning jersey ideas in the 90s'. But my favorite thing I've realized about the Rays and the Brewers is this: both teams came into their own after cutting ties with Willy Adames.

No, seriously.

In 2021, Willy Adames was the starting shortstop for the Rays, after helping lead the team to a World Series the year before. Great player, lots to love...except the Rays have another shortstop coming very soon and he'll be there for years probably. So they trade Adames to Milwaukee for J.P. Feyreisen, who at the time was the takeaway, and an unassuming right-hander named Drew Rasmussen. That's one piece that's shaped the Rays into who they are now obviously, Rasmussen in the last two years has become one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there's a decent probability he makes a killing in free agency next year. But it does go further than that. 

So without Adames, the Rays sort of warm shortstop for Wander Franco, have some replacement guys fill in, then in 2022 they bring up Franco and he takes off, in 2023 he's suspended indefinitely, and now...it looks like they traded Adames for no reason. A worse team would crumble here. Not the Rays. Since 2023, they have gone forward with the primary shortstop of...Taylor Walls, who's a .170 hitter but one of the best defenders at the position right now. Obviously they still sub in actual hitters at short from time to time, and the idea is eventually Carson Williams will go there when he learns to hit at the MLB level, but Walls is a valuable piece there, even if he's not Wander Franco. 

And even more crucially, the lack of a Franco piece in that lineup leads room for the next can't-miss prospect, Junior Caminero, who bobbles along for a year or so then takes off last year, becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball and having a second consecutive 40 HR/100 RBI season at 23. And he's also carrying that production into the postseason, and helped break the game open last night against his old organization to go to a World Series. Without the Adames trade, the Rays don't feel the need to leave room for a new homegrown hitter like Caminero [or like Jonathan Aranda]. 

On the other hand, you have the Brewers, who kept Adames for 3 more years and helped him become a perennial star and playoff piece. In 2025, his free agency year, the Brewers, being a low-market team, don't pursue him and let him leave for San Francisco, where his numbers have mellowed. The decision, intentional or not, was to recreate Adames' numbers with smaller, controllable pieces rather than spending the money on more Adames and risking attrition. Since Adames has left, the Brewers have used Joey Ortiz [who they traded for Corbin Burnes, another wise-looking decision in the long run] as a primary shortstop piece, and while he's never been a top-of-the-lineup guy, he's been steady, and has a usual August surge that helps the team a lot. This year, the Brewers called up Cooper Pratt, and while defense has been an issue, he's still a .281 hitter with 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's also 21 years old and has plenty of room to grow. And let's not forget that there's at least one more can't miss shortstop farming in the minors, plus a couple can't miss third basemen. 

Making room by not re-signing Adames has allowed the Brewers to let the infield prospects come into their own in a way that isn't being stifled. This Brewers team can make a World Series, but Cooper Pratt is here, and Jesus Made and Luis Pena are still on the way, and they're worth more to this team than Adames was. 

I have been sort of referring to this as the Willy Adames series, because that's what makes the most sense. But it's really just two teams that have excellent contact game and surprising pitching depth that might go all 7 trading off strength. I think it's gonna be a really fun World Series, and it might be more refreshing than the last few.

My one complaint: there's literally no reason to wait until Friday, aside from typical capitalist conventions of 'it needs to be a Friday night so everyone can see it'. The teams are set. The Brewers have had like a week of rest. Game 6 NEEDED to be Monday evidently to make this work, and we saw how the Guardians did on short rest to make that happen. I think we should have been able to start this thing Thursday or so, but hey, the priorities are that of the league, not of the consumer. Which is alarming, and may get worse after the next bargaining agreement gets fixed. 

Regardless- Rays-Brewers sounds fun. I'd love the Brewers to take it, but the Rays winning would make thematic sense too. Very much here for it. 

Championship Series' Day 3: He Wants Revenge

 

I figured the Rays wouldn't make things easier for the Guardians, considering that the Rays are still the most ferocious team remaining arguably, and last night's Game 2 was exactly what I figured. A dominant pitching performance, some contact work, and exploiting the weaknesses of the imperfections of the opponent. Jose Ramirez was the hero in Game 1, and he was the cause of the run spillage in Game 2. Freddy Peralta clicked, as the Rays knew he would given the change of scenery, and gave the ace performance they knew he would. And guys like Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca and Liam Hicks kept the train rolling for Tampa as they wrapped up the initial stretch at the Trop.

I'd been pulling for a Guards-Brewers series, and a Rays-Brewers series...honestly wouldn't be too bad either, seeing as neither franchise has ever won, and both are very like-minded contact-heavy teams. But last night pointed out the existence of a very fun narrative. You see...the Brewers are two games from a World Series despite trading away their #1 asset at the beginning of the season, Freddy Peralta. It did get them Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, neither of which are on the current playoff roster for Milwaukee, and it cleared the way for Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson to have definite rotation spots, but considering that they still managed to compete and make it to another NLCS, trading a guy like Peralta is still a dodgy move. The Rays had every right to take advantage of his market value, and him becoming a hero for them right now is the result of everything that's happened in the last year. Furthermore, it gives the perfect revenge narrative for Peralta to try and win a World Series against his old team.

If you'll recall, this nearly happened last year. We were somewhat close to a Brewers-Mariners World Series last year [and I'd have preferred this]. Peralta came up with the Mariners, and was dealt to Milwaukee after the 2015 season, in exchange for Adam Lind, who did approximately dick with the Mariners. He could have gotten his revenge against the M's, but neither team made it. Here, the revenge plot returns. It works twofold, because if the Rays beat Cleveland, Junior Caminero gets his revenge after being traded for Tobias Myers, who coincidentally was part of the trade that sent Peralta to Queens earlier this year. 

Lots of fun revenge plots stewing if the Rays make a World Series, which is looking a little likelier than it was, though I'm certainly not counting out the Guardians yet. It does make me a little more intrigued about seeing the Rays advance, even if it's still not the outcome I'd prefer.

Tonight, we have Bobby Gasser vs. Blake Snell in LA. The numbers would tell you one story, but recent stats say something a little different. We'll see how this one goes. If the Brewers could win some games on the road this time it could be rather helpful. 

Division Series' Day 5: Three Endings and One Second Act

 

Second consecutive section of the playoffs where three series' leave the other one hanging.

The sugarplums have faded a bit in Chicago. They all thought the sweep was possible and then they remember, 'oh right, we've only got one good starter and a bunch of guys we'd rather have do 3 innings of relief'. And so Game 3 was a 9-3 Cleveland victory, because they had Foster Griffin for most of the game and he did more than Davis Martin, Noah Schultz or David Sandlin could.

It's very relieving that the Guardians' lineup finally showed up, as people worried they wouldn't [I mean what kind of team would just refuse to hit in a postseason series after dominating offensively all season, right?]. Kwan, Ramirez, Adell, Rocchio and Angel Genao all had excellent plate appearances, and J-Ram quieted any worry he'd be an ineffective postseason piece this year with that game-deciding 2-run triple. 

The White Sox are still in prime position, but they need to cling onto that momentum before the Guardians force a Game 5. 

So the Dodgers are going to another NLCS, and they did it behind their fourth man, who'd really be their second man if injuries hadn't happened. Tyler Glasnow was very good, only giving up one run, and making the work easy for the bullpen. Max Muncy and Andy Pages continued their strong postseasons. They made this one look pretty simple honestly, because they have contingency plans for everything. I'm not calling them a lock for the World Series right now, but it is looking likelier than it was a couple weeks ago, even with their NLCS opponent looking pretty strong.

As for the Braves...I think the first hint that this wasn't the team was that it took them 3 games to eliminate the Phillies when, if they were at their peak, it would have taken them two.

The tragedy about the Braves is that the highlights of this team were so high [Baldwin, Sale, Olson] that once you look below them you see how little depth there was this year. Tyler Mahle was a crucial postseason starter because Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep were nowhere to be found this year. Guys like Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas were novel ideas that went nowhere. The season came down to Raisel Iglesias, and they've had better versions of him.

Next year they're more likely to compete than Philly, but I don't necessarily think they'll run unopposed. 

The Rays are tough, man. They solidified themselves as a World Series threat in this series, and are the team to beat going forward. The ALCS will go through Tampa, either top starter remaining hasn't had the luck Drew Rasmussen has, and Caminero's only just begun. Though Victor Mesa Jr. will be linked to the controversial overturned home run call from this game, his homer in the sixth sealed the game and ensured the sweep would happen. A guy like Mesa, who was an insanely cheap preseason pickup for Tampa this year, has made this team pop as much as people like Ryan Vilade, Bryan Baker, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Martinez had. It's the usual Rays-ball mentality of putting the best people in position to succeed, regardless of how much they're making, and it may get them a franchise-first ring. 

That does mean that of the AL candidates, the most recent World Series winner remaining is the Chicago White Sox. Let's keep in mind for a second that the Brewers have never one won, and we really only have one recent W.S. winner remaining at all...and I think you can see where I'll be rooting from here on out. 

I'm running out of things to say in Octobers about this team, guys. Every year 'this is the team', every year 'look at them go', and every year 'what happened?' 

Is it really the case of the Red Sox being so out of steam that they were that easy for the Yanks to beat, and the Rays were so good that none of that production could be mustered? Or did the Yankees once again completely stop working once they got to the division series round? Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and Austin Wells didn't get that memo though, as they all had terrific series. Anthony Volpe also did a nice amount, though in a just world that homer isn't overturned and the Rays run out of good relievers before we do. Ultimately the stamina was not there. Back in the day we didn't have an extra month of the season, it was like two weeks, and some teams are way better at prepping a team for seven months than others. The Yankees are absolutely shit at it. If this was the old playoff bracket they'd have enough momentum to last but they tap out around this time of year every time, and they're not getting any better. It's not 2006 anymore, this isn't sustainable. 

Next year, Judge will be healthy, Jones and Lombard will be everyday options, and Schlittler, Fried, Cole and Rodon will all be healthy and ready to go. If the owners waste what could be a terrific Yankees year before the Yankees themselves can, I'll be pretty mad. 

Anyway, we knew the Brewers had the edge in this series, but man this one was competitive. Back and forth, lead changes, lots of heroes on both sides. That the Brewers pulled it out should not be a knock on SD, they had a great series but just weren't the better team. Robert Gasser was able to be the hero in a start, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 run. He's not as flashy as Miz and Henderson, but he gets the job done. Once again Chourio was the hero, but Sal Frelick and especially Garrett Mitchell had some big moments. 

The Brewers once again have to go through LA to make it to a World Series. But now they can win on the road, and they'll be starting in Milwaukee. And this team's even better than last year's. I think that NLCS could go all seven, and the Dodgers may not have the lay up they had last year.

Again, the Padres tried, and they could have advanced had it not been for a really strong opponent. They did a lot with some gaping holes, and having only 1 real viable postseason starter kind of did them in ultimately. I also think having to put guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor high in the lineup illuminated the lack of real depth unfortunately. Not to knock Samad Taylor, he had a nice season this year and may have finally found a place he can stick around. But Samad Taylor is not Jake Bauers, or Garrett Mitchell, or Joey Ortiz. I assume they will probably be in the mix next year, but the D-Backs will probably want revenge again.

Tonight we see if the White Sox can close things out. I kinda hope they do.

Division Series' Day 3 & 4: The Picture is Forming

 

I wasn't really around the last few days, and I probably should do write ups on these games, just for posterity's sake, so, here goes.

-The White Sox becoming a postseason juggernaut was not something I was predicting but I'm very much here for it. A lot of Cleveland fans are chalking this up to the Guardians' own post-September fade for the second year in a row, but it's important to note that Gavin Williams wasn't the problem that game, and the offense still did what they could. The White Sox are just better right now, and their core is coming to life in a way that feels like it was teased all year but never certain. The usual combo of Murakami, Vargas, Meidroth and Chase Montgomery is getting it done, and rookie Braden Montgomery joined the fun Monday night, with the RBI double that flipped the game.

The Sox are in clinching position today. I know people talked about their side of the bracket as a joke compared to the AL East side but you really never know. The White Sox, if they make the ALCS, could in all theory keep going, regardless of who they play. It's fascinating, but they've got a higher power on their side it seems. 

Speaking of teams that have given up...

I think the difference between the grievances of Guardians fans and the grievances of Yankee fans right now is that the Yankees are actually playing a really good team. NOT THAT THE WHITE SOX AREN'T, they ARE very good, but they are very streaky, and have gotten hot at the exact right time. The Rays are actually a fantastic team that's playing very well right now and have enough put together that a World Series is very much in reach. They also got Freddy Peralta working again, as he dealt against the Yanks even after Drew Rasmussen quieted them earlier. If Peralta is *back*, like fully back, then the Rays could be a nightmare going forward. 

The Yanks did not help matters by making numerous errors and doing nothing at the plate [not you Ben Rice you're doin great]. Aaron Boone finally seems to have an incentive to change the lineup, seeing as the season's on the line and all tonight and if they get swept in front of a home crowd, the fans might genuinely riot. I'm really hoping the Yanks keep the series alive, but they've run out of momentum and the Schlittler card couldn't even save them in Game 2. 

Anyway it must have been a rerun last night because Enrique Hernandez, after hitting .150 during the regular season, had a huge home run against the Braves and brought the Dodgers closer to an NLCS. Hernandez is moving further and further up the postseason home run leaderboard, which is wild for a player who constantly seems otherwise inconsequential during the regular season. It's absolutely wild that he's allowed to do that. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman just keeps hackin' away and is continuing HIS excellent October luck, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto had another insanely dominant October start. This team really is built for October in a way that no other team is, and the Braves need to figure out if they have anyone at all capable of keeping them down. 

And finally...good for the Padres, honestly. Facing the Brewers' worst starter and a couple of their weakest relievers, they got ahead, hit another ball to the rookie shortstop which he floundered, and kept the Brewers down without Mason Miller. If things go awry tonight, which is always likely, at least they had a cool home win, and at least Jake Cronenworth, after a rough season, got to be the hero by breaking the game open with a homer. 

The stat people are beginning to worry about is that, as good as the Brewers have been in the Pat Murphy era, they're terrible on the road. If the Padres force a Game 5, that'll be yet another road opportunity wasted. Plus, Christian Yelich had his first postseason RBI since 2018, so he's turning things around. Maybe the rest of the team will too. They have Bobby Gasser on the mound tonight, hoping to seal the deal and make another NLCS. I'm kinda pulling for them, even though the Padres may be equally worthy given their recent rallies. 

A lot could happen tonight. All four could end tonight. I don't think they all will, and I kinda hope one team avoids a sweep, but...I guess we'll see.

Division Series' Day 1: Taste the Ceiling

 

It's so cool that one year into the Munetaka Murakami experience he's hitting postseason home runs. That was not his intention. He specifically wanted to play for a lower-tier team, like in Japan, and be a crowd favorite. And then suddenly he immediately becomes a playoff fixture. And he just hit a home run off one of the best pitchers in the AL. One Hundred. 

The Sox are the true underdog team of this postseason, and there really aren't a ton of underdog teams in the running. Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, none of them are really underdogs. Brewers maybe? Cause they're a less expensive team? But they're still the best team in baseball. The White Sox squeaked in, have a ton of young talent, took down the Astros and are now leveling Cleveland with their best guys rested. They shut out the Guardians, needing only a few hits to do so, and now have an edge going into Monday, where it's probably Davis Martin or Sean Burke getting the ball. The complexity of the pitching staff is really impressing me, because Anthony Kay and Jordan Hicks can step in for a spot job and Grant Taylor can work a 4 inning save. There's no rules. 

I will say, Gavin Williams vs. this offense may result in a much tighter game, but I'm still down for whatever happens here.

[yawn]

Yeah, I know some cool things happened in this one, Tarik Skubal pitching a gem, Kyle Tucker finally coming alive, all that, but...this is so boring, guys. Dave Roberts said that he's already planning the pitching rotation with the NLCS in mind. Like, that is such a pompous statement. He already thinks he's winning this season. If the Braves had any mind, they'd make him regret that, but as we just saw, they needed three games to take out a Phillies team that couldn't hit, and wasted their best starters so that A.J. Smith Shawver could get shelled in long relief. Today it might be a similar strategy honestly, while the Dodgers have Blake Snell out there. 

Look, if the Braves weren't still hitting I'd be more worried. Albies had a late homer to rally a bit. The backup catcher had a homer. There is life in this team, and I think that if they somehow work a split to ensure Chris Sale can pitch, they could do some real damage. But this might be tough to do given how well planned out the Dodgers are right now. 

What a difference a couple of days makes, right?

The Yankees got all sorts of hits against the Red Sox, and their bullpen, and the Rays put out their best starter and mostly avoided the bullpen and we couldn't get shit done.  Drew Rasmussen looked incredible. 10 strikeouts, 8 innings, 1 hit, and said hit was immediately extinguished thanks to Austin Wells trying to leg out a triple with the heart of the order coming up. The Yanks pinch-hit Stanton in the 9th, they would have done it with Wells on second and brought in Volpe or somebody as a defensive sub. So much changes if Wells is content with a double, but alas...

My hope is that Rasmussen was the worst of this. He's gone deep with a no-no against the Yanks twice in the last two weeks. Famously we do a lot better against Nick Martinez, and Freddy Peralta, despite that September upswing, is not god anymore. Game 2 Monday night will have Cameron Schlittler on the gosh darned mound, and that'll make things very tough for a Rays team that only mustered one run, on a Jonathan Aranda solo shot, off of Cole and friends. 

I still have hope, but that was pretty damn bleak, gotta say.

Brewers-Padres might be the most competitive series of the four. The Brewers are the best of the best, but the Padres are hotter than hot right now. If this game was played in San Diego, that go-ahead homer by Ty France woulda counted, but because of that rinky-dink ass stadium in Milwaukee with a closed roof, that was merely an easy out. It sure makes the possibility of a Rays-Brewers World Series even more fun. Rob Manfred wants Yanks-Dodgers again, but how about two really low-market teams with old-ass stadiums fighting for dominance? Make him rip his hair out.

Anyway, this one was exactly what you wanted. Miz looking electric, striking out 6 but still allowing 2 runs. Chourio being the hero and tying the game with that huge homer. Phenomenal back-and-forth bullpen work. A thrilling conclusion where France almost sinks the game. So much really cool stuff. I'm definitely pulling for Milwaukee here, but the Padres could be a decent match for them.

Today we've got another Dodgers game, which Dave Roberts tells me they're planning to win 5-4 in order to set up a washed narrative before the sweep on Tuesday, and some more fun in Milwaukee. I'll try and sneak some in, in between watching football. 

Frequent Shoppers

 
Right now is the Rays-Braves series, a series between two teams who are in 1st place, and would both like to remain in first place. Honestly if they're jogging in place this series to ensure they both don't really change pace at all, don't be shocked.

It's nice, because both of these teams were responsible for some of the most savvy deadline deals of the year. The Rays inquired about Liam Hicks, as the Marlins had 2 other catchers, and a deal was worked out, and suddenly the Rays got to add one of the best contact hitters in the game. Hicks has been a smashing success, hitting .313 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Hicks is lethal against righties, he's not a bad catcher and he's easy to fit into the lineup. The Rays already have Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero in their arsenal, and Hicks has made them even stronger. I caught him homering last month, that was pretty nice. Also I love the players' weekend canada catcher's gear he had, that was really cool. The Rays have Hicks as the primary catcher and Nick Fortes as the secondary with defensive perks. That seems to be working.

Meanwhile, the Braves needed pitching help, got turned down by Jacob deGrom, and took a flyer on Tyler Mahle, who's been good but is always injury-prone. The Giants bit, and while the Mahle deal seemed odd at first, it made more sense the more games Mahle saw in Atlanta. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.24 ERA, a 1.5 WAR, 35 Ks and 2 wins. A lot of the Braves starters this year, in lieu of the young talent that was supposed to be here, have been craftsman, veterans and tricksters, and to have an actual strong, hard-throwing pitcher again is nice. It can't all be the Chris Sale show, he needed another real arm, and Mahle is that. The move was made to strengthen the rotation, and Mahle very much did, even if A.J. Smith Shawver hasn't been very good recently. 

And it's the little moves as well that have been impressive for both teams. Brent Suter's been used by the Braves in long relief and has been wonderful, with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings. Similarly, Tyler Wells was brought on by the Rays to be a 2-inning guy, and he's been great, with a 2-0 record, a 1.69 ERA and 16 Ks in as many innings. The only real sour note has been Freddy Peralta, and even HE'S given the Rays some nice starts after his rough early period wrapped up. He's not Brewers good, but he appears to be building, and I think he's capable of some nice October starts.

Both teams are on a pretty decent trajectory at the moment. The Rays are having some trouble, and have the Yankees coming up from behind, but have Caminero sailing and the bench providing excellent support. They have to play the Astros next [after they're done making things easier for the Braves], and that should be interesting. The Braves, after splitting the Phils series, are on slightly thinner ice, and now have the Phils again once they're done with the Rays. Acuna may be riding high after those late theatrics this weekend, but Olson's struggling, Dubon's errors are adding up, and the black hole at shortstop isn't getting any fuller. Both of these teams will still make the playoffs with ample seeds, but they need to ensure that after this series, the slipping stops and the division title can be brought home. It won't be easy, but they've made enough of the rest of this season.

Coming Tonight: The Guardians have needed catching help for years. I did not think this would be the solution. 

Keeping Distance

 
As I write this, both the Braves and the Rays, who've been leading their respective divisions for the majority of the summer, now have a competitor 3.5 games behind them. Both teams have lost a ton of ground in the last few weeks. The Rays dropped 5 of 7 games to the Orioles, one of which I was in attendance for and was truly glorious. The Braves are 6-10 since the start of the Yankees series back on August 7th, and despite a nice showing last night against the Dodgers, are in danger of being lapped. 

Of the two, the Braves probably have the better team, or moreover the one with better infrastructure. The current incarnation of the team has Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Murphy and A.J. Smith-Shawver all healthy, for once. Now, forget for a moment that none of them are playing especially well. The infrastructure is still there. Mike Yastrzemski and Lane Thomas are all on hand to prevent against Acuna getting hurt again. Jim Jarvis just went down but something tells me he'll be back soon enough to buttress Dubon and Kim. The point of getting Tyler Mahle was to ensure that A.J. Smith-Shawver wasn't gonna overtax himself trying to be that strong fifth man, and Mahle's honestly been a better answer, he's 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 23 Ks in 4 starts, better arguably than his Giants numbers. 

I did get to see Ronald Acuna hit a homer a few weeks ago. It was during a loss. So him doing his flapping his arms schtick and clowning around, even during a loss, that doesn't work as well. That works when they're all playing well as a unit, or when Acuna's having a 40-70 season or something, but not when he's trying to salvage another mid year. It's clear he's still a great talent but he's not consistent. Every year either he's gonna give you gold or hobble through half the season and be alright for the rest of it. This year he's not the main takeaway from this Braves team, Baldwin and Olson are. And I'm not sure how he is with that.

The Rays, meanwhile, came into prominence after steadily climbing the division and going on a streak once the Yankees went cold. They've sustained the momentum for most of the season, but they're 4-7 since the A's series ended [along with a 9 game winning streak], and 5 of those games, as discussed, came at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The other two came from another division rival, the Blue Jays, so it really just adds insult to injury. Freddy Peralta's still struggling like he did in New York, the bullpen's beginning to turn again despite Bryan Baker leading the league in saves with 38 [he did give up the double to Dylan Beavers that sunk the game I went to though], Aranda and Diaz are beginning to calm down a tad, and the magic of late June through July may be wearing off. 

I want to stress that there's still a lot that works about this Rays team though. Getting Liam Hicks was a really savvy decision, as he's an excellent contact hitter that went yard when I was in Baltimore. He's not a great catcher, but he hits better than Nick Fortes does. Ryan Vilade is a big, well-built truck of a man who isn't terrific in right but hits pretty well, with 11 homers and 37 RBIs. He's somewhat limited but he's a great role player, a lot like Jonny DeLuca honestly. Chandler Simpson is leading the AL in steals with 35, and he leads it in triples with 6, though still no home runs. And of course, Junior Caminero's having another phenomenal year, with 35 homers and 84 RBIs. The man is a star.

Here's what I'll say, regarding who gets caught. The Yankees have a higher probability of catching the Rays than the Phillies have of catching the Braves, because the Phillies have forgotten they're a baseball team more often than the Yankees have. The Yanks just got Cody Bellinger back, Max Fried should be on the way, and they're gonna keep getting stronger. The Phillies had a nice week back there but now they're waking up the Mariners and some of the same issues are still at play. I still think the Braves are a better team than the Phillies, and the Dodgers series is proving it. The Yankees might be on the same level as the Rays, and could get very close to lapping them if current trends hold. 

Coming Tonight: One of the most consistent hitters of the decade in a Cleveland team that, need I remind you, has also had Jose Ramirez on it. 

Rays'd Objection

 First of all, this is just an odd picture. Not just Cedric Mullins on the Rays, though that is pretty odd. It's a 90s Rays jersey...but an early 2000s Rays cap. It's mismatched eras. I kinda wish for the HOF weekend thing, they'd have done full throwbacks, and do the vested early 2000s Steve Cox Rays uniforms, but no, it's gotta look weird.

Here's a fun fact about the Rays' schedule going forward. Six of the teams they're set to play going forward are below .500. The Jays, Orioles, Athletics [TWICE], Mets, Tigers. They will eventually play good teams [Braves, Yanks, Sox], but by that point they'll probably have an unreachable lead from playing the A's a ton of times, and the AL East will be called for them. I'd accuse the MLB of rigging the system for the Rays, but they are a very cheap team with a low payroll who'd get very few eyes on them if they made a World Series, so who even knows how this happened.

The Rays did help this by sweeping the Mariners, an actual good team [or at least they were supposed to be], and now they can coast a bit going forward. The O's may chase them a great deal in a couple weeks. I'll be at one of the games in Baltimore, so I sure hope so. 

The trade deadline strengthened what was already an extremely well-engineered Rays team, and now they're looking even better. They already didn't have a ton of issues scoring runs, but now they have Liam Hicks on the team and he's scored like 6 since getting here. Aranda, Caminero and Diaz make up one of the most formidable run-scoring tryptics in the game, which is widely when you consider that Yandy Diaz is 34. Caminero has 33 homers right now and is in no position to slow down. Even Cedric Mullins is helping out with the power game, with 13 homers and 35 RBIs, plus 18 steals. This isn't peak, early 2020s Mullins, but he's still very helpful, and he can still do some cool things. I also think the bench's array of guys like Ben Williamson, Victor Mesa Jr. [who, contrary to my earlier belief, is a different guy than former Marlins prospect Victor Victor Mesa], Jonny deLuca and Ryan Vilade, is extremely helpful. Vilade especially is just built like a ballplayer, this massive thing who can hit really hard. 

The bullpen has overcome some early-May struggles and mellowed into a really nice unit, with Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, Ian Seymour and now Tyler Wells working on great seasons. Steven Matz has swung back into the rotation to replace Griffin Jax, and he's not doing too badly. I do worry about Freddy Peralta, because he's still struggling the way he did in New York, but hopefully things even out. Martinez and Rasmussen are still excellent though, and solving a ton of problems. 

Again, even as the Yankees threaten, I don't see the Rays giving up 1st anytime soon, even if there are minor flaws. This team's really blossomed, and come together in a way I wasn't expecting early on. I don't think they're THE favorite in the AL going into October, but they're one of the only teams acting like it this year. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Braves really corner the market on 'life begins at 30' guys, don't they?

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2026

 Well...a lot happened this time around. 

Following the brass today was HARROWING. So much was happening, and so quickly. Almost evenly displaced as well, like there'd be a move, I'd have time to make a custom of them, and the next two moves would be up. And I think it was all a well rounded bunch. Last year the emphasis was on relief pitching, this year it was a little of everything. Some teams needed starting help, some teams needed outfield bats, some teams needed catchers [and some needed catchers and somehow forgot to deal for any]. A lot went down, even to the point where, after the BIG MOVE happened a few days ago, I was worried nothing would top it. And...I mean, we'll get to it, but there certainly was competition. 

I have a lot of other posts planned for deadline week, I have a 'best of the rest' one planned, I have a 'the ones I didn't understand' post in a bit. But we've got to do the top 10. This kept sliding by the whole day and got to the point where it is now. One spot stayed the same. And...yeah.

Anyway, we start with one I really didn't think was gonna happen this deadline:

#10: Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Giants

So, the Yankees went into the deadline looking for bullpen work and a catching upgrade, and got neither. So Heliot Ramos, a very savvy lineup addition, makes it to the end of this list without going forward. Let me just stress that I love this move, Ramos is young, controllable, and powerful. He's been hurt for a bit but he's hitting .264 with 9 homers and 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's a ferocious hitter with a huge upside and a lot to accomplish, and...he gets to hit in Yankee stadium. The tricky part is it crowds the outfield a bit. Right now it's Ramos/Jones/Dominguez/Grisham, and eventually Bellinger and Judge are gonna come back and it's gonna get even more crowded. It's bad enough that Paul Goldschmidt's gonna have even less at-bats now [more on that in another post], now we're crowding the active roster. It's gonna be worth it if Ramos continues his very strong work, which is very likely.

#9: Taylor Ward to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Orioles

The Mariners have the kind of team that should work more in concept, because you have Randy Arozarena, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone and Josh Naylor there and the contact game is ailing. So in comes Taylor Ward to make it even more ridiculous. Ward's having another excellent season, but it's a very contact heavy one without much need for power. He only has 7 homers and 30 RBIs, and that is appalling from a guy who's had 100 RBIs and 36 homers JUST A SEASON AGO. Wouldn't a trip to Seattle be a fun time to start power-hitting? Ward's an excellent outfield bat with some versatility and perks, and he could be the lineup piece that the Mariners need to save their season. I just think he really fits with what they're doing in Seattle. I'm also really happy the Mariners didn't deal Kirby or Emerson. Yes, that prevents against the possibility of stretch Kade, but their rotation is excellent and didn't need to be broken up beyond Castillo.

#8: Kevin Gausman to the Cubs, 2 prospects to the Blue Jays

The Jays had a really weird deadline, because they both sold and bought at the same time. And arguably they should have committed more to one than both. Ultimately, they chose to part with one of their longest-tenured stars, the mighty Kevin Gausman, where he will become something the Cubs have desperately needed this year: an actual ace. Justin Steele's been hurt, Cade Horton's out for a while, Shota Imanaga's struggled. They need stability, and Gausman is a veteran arm with postseason experience who can back up the already strong offense. This is a downslope of a year compared to his peak, as he is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA, but he's still a fundamentally strong pitcher with a lot of great starts left in him. I think he will greatly aid the Cubs down the stretch. Perhaps not as much as someone a little further down, but enough to land on this list.

#7: Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Giants

This is arguably a little low, but it's down here because the Phillies really needed a better option at fourth or fifth starter and didn't get one. They also needed an outfield bat...and didn't get one. So Luis Arraez, as good as he is, is an odd consolation for so many pieces of this lineup that needed help, and if we miss out on a World Series, it could be Dombrowski's fault for not going further. However...the Phillies now have Luis Arraez. And that's a very good thing. One of the best contact hitters in the game, and a terrific defensive 2nd baseman, joins this lineup, and moving Stott, Bohm and Harper around supremely improves the defense in general. Arraez is electric wherever he is, and the Phils could see that fully going forward. We also got Caleb Killian, who's a terrific bullpen arm with a great upside. Very much a win for Philly, even if the team isn't fully improved by this deadline.

#6: Foster Griffin to the Guardians, 4 prospects to the Nationals.

The Guardians had a sneakily good deadline, bringing on a lot of pieces that lift this team up to where they can really chase Chicago. Foster Griffin was their best move, because their fifth man in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, and as good as he can be, they could do better. Their rotation is now Messick, Williams, Bibee, Griffin and Cantillo, and that's among the best in the bigs. Griffin isn't an ace, but he's an excellent mid-rotation arm with 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA under his belt, and that's from playing for a very okay Nationals team. He'll thrive in a playoff environment in Cleveland, and build on this belated rookie season to become an even bigger force going forward. 

#5: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs, Francisco Rojas to the Mets

This one ways a little more than Gausman to me for the Cubs pitching additions, because Holmes, until the injury, was having the best season of his career, and one of the only good seasons on the Mets. Through 9 games he had a 2.39 ERA, and was proving that the Mets moving him to the rotation was a good idea after all. The idea is that once Holmes is active [as well as Braxton Garrett], he'll be able to aid the Cubs rotation, and I see him as a front-facing integral arm that could lead them through some postseason games. Tyrone Taylor's also an excellent outfield depth option for this team, and could be very helpful on a postseason roster. The Cubs weren't fully ready before, and now they are.

#4: Freddy Peralta to the Rays, 3 prospects to the Mets

This deal will work out if the thesis, that the Mets were just a really poor fit for Peralta, is true. Peralta succeeded in Milwaukee, a small market team built on contact and pitching. That's also the Rays. Low budget, small core, close wins, and an impressive rotation. Peralta levels it up, as good as Rasmussen and Martinez have been. Shane McClanahan's gonna miss some time, and Peralta will be relied upon to deliver Brewers numbers as an ace for a Rays team with a shot at a #1 seed. Peralta's 4.99 ERA will need to come down if the Rays want to take advantage of this deadline, and I have a feeling it will. Meanwhile, Jett Williams is still chilling in the Brewers' farm system, and Brandon Sproat is getting all kinds of starts, so...lolMets.

#3: Liam Hicks to the Rays, Brayden Taylor and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

I like this one a little better for the Rays, simply because it fixes a lot of problems. It ups their catching game, ensuring Nick Fortes doesn't have to start behind the plate as much. It also gives them a proven contact bat with some kick against righthanded pitchers, and a very well-trusted lineup presence. I think he's just one of those guys who can pop into any lineup and just dive right in with excellent production, so I think he'll love Tampa. And also, he drains the Rays' farm system a little more so other teams can have a chance. Just a really cool, sneaky move by the Rays that positions them further towards a late run.

#2: Adley Rutschman and Jake Rogers to the Red Sox, Carlos Narvaez and 4 prospects to the Orioles.

I would say since Varitek left, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at catcher. So many guys that could have been the one, or should have. Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez, and the list goes on and on. So to finally have an answer at catcher, and for it to be Adley Rutschman a terrific hitting catcher whose team already foreshadowed this move by signing Samuel Basallo to a multi-year deal...that is huge. Rutschman's having another great season, but it did feel like this O's team was moving past the need for him. With this Boston team he'll fit right in, and be another huge lineup piece of a team that's quickly becoming a serious wild card threat. Very much a case of giving a team exactly the guy they need going forward.

But of course...nothing was gonna top the #1 piece on the board. Even if you disagree with its existence, this deal needed to be #1.

#1: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, River Ryan, Zyhir Hope and 1 other prospect to the Tigers

So. The best team in baseball got the best pitcher in baseball. In 16 starts, Skubal had a 2.79 ERA, 7 wins, 116 Ks and a 2.9 WAR. He's still in his peak, is effortlessly brilliant, and was never gonna stay in Detroit. The Dodgers taking him happened because they had a well-stocked farm system where even their lower tier prospects were more than other teams were offering. It's disappointing that, like a lot of recent Dodger developments, nobody else could stop it from happening. But now Sku gets to help the Dodgers go for a threepeat, and it's gonna make electric October baseball even if they don't get all the way. It's also gonna add fuel to the fire that Skubal will, in all likelihood, choose to stay in LA going forward. Definitely shifts the balance of the game, which is what the trade deadline is for. 

So yeah. A lot happened. A lot of teams won. And now the Dodgers are even scarier. Sets up the last third perfectly.

Sometime tomorrow there'll be a 'best of the rest' post most likely, with a lot of other deals that didn't make this list. 

Bake-Off

 

Once again, you have to hand it to the Rays. They took talent that was lying dormant in another market, nabbed him for a bargain, made him a star and will now likely profit. Bryan Baker, you may have struggled to find stability with the O's, but now you're an all-star closer for a competitor. Somehow.

Baker I always liked with the Orioles because he was one of those constants that the fans loved. Made most of his appearances, did his job efficiently, balanced out the rough moments. I saw him pitch for the O's last year before he was traded and he seemed to have his stuff. The Rays must have known. They dealt for him, worked on some things, and gave him the ninth. So far he's got 25 saves with a 1.69 ERA, and has been the bright spot of a Rays bullpen that is doing its best without the homegrown depth it usually has. Ian Seymour, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger are usually viable options but they're not having great seasons. Casey Legumina still isn't the answer. They picked up Chris Roycroft and he hasn't been much better. Even late career Craig Kimbrel is flailing given the opportunity. I guess they can't have a young collective of ace relievers again for another couple years. 

It goes to show that the Tampa Bay Rays, most years but especially this one, specialize in having guys that can do one thing extremely well and most other things not well at all. They corner the market on niche specialists with no range. Where else can you find Nick Fortes, a catcher that doesn't hit and doesn't need to, Chandler Simpson, an ace-base stealer who hits triples but can't hit home runs, Ryan Vilade, who's built like an armed bodyguard but can't play left field, Richie Palacios, who...we're still not sure what he does well but the Rays sure need him, and Taylor Walls, the best infield defender in baseball with literally no offensive ability. The idea is these people don't need to be good at everything, they need to be good at the thing that they're best at, and pooling their resources together, they make a great team.

Now, granted, this only works because of the presence of a choice few multifaceted pieces, such as Junior Caminero, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, but the Rays-ball mentality of putting in the guy that works the best vs. the most well known and expensive version just works. It's been nearly a decade of this, you can never count these teams out, they're never bottom feeders and they're always one strong month away from competing. Right now they're competitive. Does this have to do with the fact that the Yankees are in a downswing? I'm supposed to say no. But in all honesty, the Rays are very good this year, have had a very nice month, and despite losing three straight to the Red Sox, still have a nice hold on the AL East. It's an imperfect hold, and the Yanks are shooting back up again, but they're not exactly gonna lay down and die either. 

Coming Tonight: A minor league lifer, doesn't throw too hard, relies on trickery and pitch selection. Happens to come into a rotation spot with one of the best organizations in the bigs. Is now suddenly a decent name. 

Okay, Fine, the Rays are Good.

 

No disrespect here. The Rays are in first, and they're earning it. No 'it's cause the Yankees suck', no 'where are the stars?', none of that. Junior Caminero's gone on a home run hitting tear, Drew Rasmussen's one of the best pitchers in baseball, Yandy Diaz is a total hitting machine, Jonathan Aranda's finally getting hot, and somehow they've been able to make a closer out of former Orioles bullpen stalwart Bryan 'Shake 'n Bake' Baker. I can't even be mad, they're just really good right now. Won 7 straight, they get to play the Astros this weekend and then we get to see how long the Yankees want to drag out the losing stretch. 

Drew Rasmussen has been a key rotation figure for the Rays ever since coming over here. I gave them a lot of shit for trading Willy Adames just so Franco could get playing time, but they were able to, like so many other times, offload soon-to-be-wanting-money talent for a younger, more lucrative piece. So they got Rasmussen at the exact correct time, he had a stellar 2022, missed parts of two seasons with injuries, had a stellar 2023 and is looking at a second consecutive all-star appearance. Dude's just a sneaky-good, hard-throwing workhorse whose ERA hasn't dipped above 3 since coming over. That's honestly the crazy part, he's never finished a season with an ERA higher than 2.85 as a Ray. As a Brewer he was all over the place, but he really nailed things down in Tampa, and became a very consistent guy. I'm not sure if he's the ace, Shane McClanahan is still technically top dog, but Rasmussen is pitching better. 

I do think it's slightly worrying that we haven't seen Ryan Pepiot yet this season, but it speaks to the Rays' low-budget dominance that they're keeping the rest of the AL East at bay using guys like Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax. They technically don't have a fifth starter right now, what with Steven Matz hurt, but it's the Rays so they're using 5 relievers in a trench coat, and suddenly that's working. Again, the bullpen's been better, but Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker have been pretty good. Baker has 21 saves. They wouldn't let him close with the O's but the Rays had an opening. I dunno why they had an opening at closer, I feel like they had a guy for that all set up last year..

I think the biggest twists of this season for the Rays are A.) that the contact game is being led by Yandy Diaz, who's hitting .329 and already has 100 hits, and B.) that this team that's known for its contact game and has two proven starters who have not hit any home runs and are not expected to...also has a pretty decent power core, just from Aranda and Caminero. Caminero has 24 homers right now. He committed to the Home Run Derby before anyone was even thinking about the Home Run Derby. Somebody just said 'hello' to him, and he went 'I WANNA DO THE DERBY AGAIN'. And what the hell do you say to that?? No??? 'I wanna potentially ruin my swing for the rest of the season' 'Okay, go ahead, champ.' There's a reason there isn't one of these for pitchers. 

Anyway. The Rays are really good right now. Is it sustainable? Who knows. Yankees are technically the better team, and they do this every June. A month from now, if the Yankees still suck, we'll see. With the exception of 2023, the Yankees remember to stop sucking at some point. We'll see if the Rays can outrun them there, with their four guys that don't hit home runs and their three guys that aren't here to hit at all..

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros, like absolute fools, traded him, right as an opening emerged in his new team's starting lineup. To say he's made the most of it would be an understatement. 

Ray-versal of Fortune

 

Guys, I think that rainout the Rays had against the Yankees last month changed the course of their season. Before then they'd been on top of the world, since then they're 7-15. Mind you, they had 15 losses by that point in May anyway, and they've doubled that in less than a month. Could it be that resting a team on the laurels of an ace who hasn't pitched in 3 years, a speedy hitter who refuses to hit home runs, a production machine that can't play first, the single worst everyday hitter in baseball this decade, and the Rays' worst bullpen since pre-Cash, hasn't turned out to be as strong of a strategy as they thought?

I continue to not understand why the Rays continue to trot Taylor Walls out there. He's one of the best shortstops in the game defensively, that bit I understand, but that's literally it. He's once again absolutely refusing to hit and he's still getting the starts. If this Rays team was as good as it claims to be, there'd be someone who can actually hit playing shortstop and Walls would just be a sturdy ute. But they couldn't have that. I say that, but we've seen Cedric Mullins hit in Baltimore and it's just not happening here, he's a .198 hitter with barely any real upsides this year. The gap between the production core, Caminero, Aranda and Diaz, and everything else is ASTOUNDING. This is why you don't trade Brandon Lowe, because you go from a very varied, consistent lineup to three great power hitters and a lot of dead air. Throwing in Ryan Vilade and Ben Williamson helps on occasion but I don't know if they've really found a working model for success yet. That's a wild thing to say about a 2nd place team still in reach of a division title, but it seems true now.

And it makes the hitters that are working even more valuable. When the Franco thing happened, the immediate inclination was to rush Junior Caminero, and that's how we got like 2 seasons where Caminero would show up midyear, not do much and not make camp next spring. Then 2025 happens, he's for real, this is the guy...we're on firmer ground. Right now Caminero's hitting .272 with 15 homers and 33 RBIs. Not quite as huge as 2025 so far, but on a decent pace, and possibly on the way to another ASG nod. And he's only 22. I really think this guy is the future for Tampa, and I really think they ought to figure out a way to keep him on long term. It worked for Yandy Diaz, he's still an excellent power bat all this time later. They need to lock him down, and it sucks that a lockout might not even make that a further possibility. 

This team has enough production to keep ahead of the pack, and enough solid pitching seasons [Rasmussen, Martinez and until recently McClanahan] to equalize competitors. It just hasn't been as forceful since mid-May, and as such the Yankees have retaken the division [and considering what they've done to the White Sox this week, may hold onto it]. You can never truly count the Rays out, but unless they can fix the lineup dissonance this may be all they can do this year.

Coming Tomorrow- Undoubtedly the single most dominant pitcher of the 2020s. Like a switch flipped.

High Sugar Intake

 

The limitations of modern arm strength point towards a frustrating factor about modern pitching. There are some people pitching right now who, if they didn't overwork themselves and miss time in between amazing seasons, would be Hall of Famers. Back then you only had the occasional case, a Sam McDowell here, a J.R. Richard there, but even then it was an outside circumstance that led to the decline. Even Madison Bumgarner, the ATVing ruined his arm more than overthrowing did. But now, throwing the best season of your life means not being that good again for another 2 or 3 years, and considering that people are already coming up at 25 anyway, it's reducing people's prime.

If this was 1979, Shane McClanahan would have been up at 22, have a Cy Young by 25 and would be in the midst of a Dodgers contract by now. But no, the Rays didn't have room for him til the 2020 playoffs, he flirted with greatness but went down mid-2023, missed two seasons and is now 29 and working on a 'comeback' year. Throwing hard isn't what it used to be, man.

I think the Rays are still very thankful that McClanahan's still a mighty centerpiece of their rotation, and that he's back to 2022 form this year, working on a 6-2 record with a 2.45 ERA through 11 starts. He's still a big game guy who can take a strong workload and hold the line against great teams. I think he's still being a little careful with speeds and control but he's still very much THE guy for this team, and he, Rasmussen and Martinez have been very good at keeping runs down this year. I just feel like if the Rays had more of a sample size from him they'd have been better off. They got a ton of strong, healthy seasons out of Blake Snell, and McClanahan's very much seen in the same kind of light as Snell was, but with less to show for himself. It definitely speaks to how good McClanahan's been when he's been active, as his highest season ERA to this point is still a 3.43 from his rookie year. 

The Rays in general, by the way, are still a strong AL competitor despite the bottom beginning to drop out a bit in the past week. Today the Tigers smacked around Nick Martinez and friends behind 8 innings of Troy Melton, marking their 7th loss since the rainout that could have ended the 'Yanks can't win a series against a .500 team' argument once and for all. The team is still hitting, and still surging behind the usual suspects of Caminero, Diaz and Aranda, but the depth isn't completely there [barring Ryan Vilade maybe] and the bullpen's still in shambles. This is still a good team, and they're still capable of a lot of strong run production, but the uncontested upswing they had in May might have come to an end. 

...of course they don't play a .500+ team again til mid-month in LA, but apparently it's only okay to bring that up if you spend money on the team.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who plays for one of the teams the Rays have to play next. And he got his start out of the way today, so they won't have to face him. 

Violent Rays

 

Nearly a decade into the Kevin Cash era of Rays baseball, we have flipped the script entirely, and now have a Rays team where the rotation is so good that it makes the team hesitant to hand it to the bullpen. Who'd have thought??

The current rotation plan, as opposed to 2018's plan of 'Blake Snell, Chris Archer, Tyler Glasnow and give it to a reliever', is a much more traditional mindset. McClanahan and Rasmussen up top, Martinez and Matz supplanting, then Jesse Scholtens with an opener. That's remarkably unconvoluted. And so far it's REALLY working. Nick Martinez is having his best season yet, he's 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 9 starts. He's not outthrowing like McClanahan and Rasmussen are [despite the fact that it IS working], but he's been dominant, and the Rays' defense has been making it easy work. Having a healthy McClanahan back also helps, he's got a 2.82 ERA, he's 5-2 and he's got 47 Ks. I still think he's trying not to exacerbate things again after missing 2 years at his peak, but it's a fine time for him to be throwing this well. And even Matz has been impressive, going 4-1 with a 3.70 ERA in 8 starts. It's a compact, solid unit of people that can just stay on as Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson make their jobs really easy.

But...the bullpen, people. Bryan Baker does have 13 saves right now, but not all of them have been pretty. That ERA reads 2.66, but it was above 4 a week or so ago. The more you look at this bullpen, the more doesn't sit right. Hunter Bigge ALONE. The man gave up 8 runs IN EXTRAS. TO THE MARLINS. Just got on there hoping for an easy inning and completely exploded. Garrett Cleavinger, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour aren't much better. Remember, the Rays gave up Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax, and Bradley's having a comeback year in Minneapolis while Jax...tries. He gives up too many walks, gets way too many batters on base and presses his luck. Even the 'better' relievers on this team don't hold a candle to the heights of this administration's pens. This is why you re-sign Pete Fairbanks, or hold onto Andrew Kittredge, or anything. But no, Ian Seymour really was the answer here. Or Mason Englert.

Again, it's a good thing the Rays are really good right now, and hitting .261 as a team with sensational contact hitting and a lot of sharp ideas fueling the fire, but seeing a Rays team with a bad bullpen just feels wrong. Like they haven't thought about what that'll do to them. And it's not like the Dodgers where they can use other starters instead of their bullpen, because they don't have Dodgers money. Not even close. 

The Rays face the Yankees tonight, and this weekend. Gerrit Cole is getting the ball tonight. Then they start next week in Baltimore. If they can get through that with their dignity intact, then we can talk.

Coming Tonight: A rookie who's my age. To any longtime readers, 10 years ago that was kinda cool. I'm now at an age where if I was a rookie in the MLB, I'd get some concerned looks. 

One More Dragon to Slay

 

2025 was a very nice year for me, a year where neither the Astros, the Cardinals or the Rays made the playoffs. Those three organizations infuriate me to no end for different reasons, and the Rays' insistence on not paying their players yet still building great teams make them particularly infuriating. What's the point of constructing a great team yet not having the incentive to cultivate it? George Harrison had a line about the record industry once, 'they don't care much for the music, they want the blood from a clone', and that really sums up the Rays mentality. To them it's more cost-efficient to trade a star for someone who could do the star's work and become big enough in three years to repeat the cycle. 

So this is another year of the Rays' usual approach, and so far, despite the usual lack of offseason effort [to a degree], the Rays are in 2nd place and surging after a strong week. Why should anything make sense?

As discussed, Yandy Diaz is the last 2020 Ray standing on this team. If you want to count McClanahan, I suppose you can, but he was active for the series and not the season so it's fuzzy. Hilariously there are more people on this team who were in the Dodgers' system in 2020 [Lux, Feduccia, Grove, Uceta, Pepiot, DeLuca], than there were people in the Rays system that year. THAT is dedication. You don't wind up with that many ex-Dodgers from that era accidentally, especially in comparison to your own organizational products. That's why it's been refreshing seeing actual Rays products like Caminero, Aranda and Simpson inherit the team in addition to all the traded guys. 

But Diaz is a rare case in that A.) the Rays have kept him around, and B.) he's actually performed consistently well in Tampa. I did not expect former Cleveland also-ran infielder Yandy Diaz to become the beloved power-hitting elder statesman corner infielder he is with the Rays, but it's still great to see. Diaz is 34, and potentially looking at his last season in Tampa [unless they decide to re-sign him [canned laughter]], and still a very crucial part of this lineup. So far he's hitting .333 with 21 RBIs, 5 homers and a .926 OPS. He's on track to even surpass some career highs from last year. Is a 30+ homer year out of the question, even if he just had his first 25 homer year last year? Not at all. Nothing makes sense in Tampa.

But, as it tends to happen, the things not making sense line up in a way that's advantageous for this team. Chandler Simpson's hitting .300 with 11 stolen bases, which is enough to distract you from his defense. Nick Martinez has a 1.70 ERA through his first 6 starts, which is strong enough to distract you from the fact that the 6 man from the Reds is now the top guy for the Rays. Shane McClanahan has a 3.10 ERA and 30 Ks, which is enough to distract you from his two lost seasons. Jonathan Aranda leads the league in RBIs right now with 27, which is enough to distract you from his .230 average. The lineup, while not always pretty, is producing runs, even if the bullpen is still a mess. And the Rays finish the week with a scorching display of wins...against teams like the Twins and Giants.

The Rays could still make something happen this year, but I see a week like this one and I still see the deep flaws and long term issues that prevent them from building this into a long term dynasty. Not that the owners care much, as usual.

Coming Tomorrow- Very weird to me that you could describe this guy as one of the veteran staples of the Nationals now. It doesn't feel like 5 years have gone by, that's for sure.

Cosmic Rays

 

Y'know...a week ago the Yankees could have scored runs off of Nick Martinez.

I dunno, man. You think you have a team figured out and then they can't do anything against Aaron Civale, then can't mount a comeback against a clearly mediocre Rays team. The Rays' bullpen has been vile this year, and still David Bednar goes 'watch this' and ruins everything.

What can't be disputed, even if I'd try to whine about how undeserving the Rays are of a .500 record even if they outperformed the Yankees at home, is the talent emanating from Chandler Simpson. THAT is a leadoff hitter. Get on base, hits triples, steals, gets home. Everything you want. The man is a contact machine, and he could ride a .300+ average for a while at this rate. 'Pesky' is a good word for someone like Simpson, and it's clearer to me how tough of an out he's gonna be in every subsequent Yankees series. At least last year the speedy tough out guy on the Rays could get traded to New York midseason and wind up as a fun utility guy here. Simpson's gonna be a Ray for at least another two years, maybe three if the Rays can't find a good enough trade partner in time. 

I say that, yet they still haven't managed to get rid of Yandy Diaz, and they're better for it. I never would have thought THIS GUY would be a valuable veteran power bat. I saw him as a fill-in infield guy playing for Cleveland in 2017 and I didn't really think too much of him, and then he goes to Tampa and becomes a white-hot power hitting corner. Diaz is currently hitting .362 with 21 hits, 14 RBIs and 3 homers. I know that the Rays expected someone like Aranda or Caminero to be off to a hotter power start, but they'll take more Yandy Diaz production, I know that. And admittedly Jonathan Aranda has 3 homers and 14 RBIs himself, so he's just heating up.

I think the perks of this Rays team get overlooked because it's so easy to see the flaws. Once again, they have no choice but to start Taylor Walls at shortstop, meaning they're wasting like 3 at-bats a game. The Cedric Mullins experiment is not working out yet, and he may in fact just be past his prime. The bullpen is still a major problem area, as even in today's win Mason Englert let an Aaron Judge homer by and nearly wrecked the game. The days of having a murderer's row of sneaky, unhittable specialists all in a line are gone; now these guys are just trying to keep a job. Only Hunter Bigge and Jesse Scholtens have ERAs below 2.50, and Scholtens arguably should be starting. At the very least Rasmussen, Matz and Martinez have been solid so far, but considering that Martinez was already a 'break in case of emergency' starter, and Ryan Pepiot's missing time, them having to reach into depth options IN APRIL isn't a great sign. This is why you don't trade Taj Bradley.

A sweep of the Yankees is a good source of dopamine, but it's still early, and this is still a weaker, flawed Rays team. Unless this really is a moment of pure turnaround, the Rays need to come to terms with their limitations or face another really rough July.

Coming Tomorrow- After three years of 'is he for real', 7 homers in 3 and a half weeks seem to provide a definitive answer to that.