Always Be Closing: From Out of Nowhere

 

In 2019, Kirby Yates was luckily enough to be the ninth inning heir apparent to a team that had a large number of save situations. Part of his success for the Padres that year was that he'd had such good luck in San Diego, and wasn't dropped into a closing job with no confidence. And so Yates went onto lead the league with 41 saves, plus a 1.19 ERA. It was a landmark season that gave Yates a reputation as a powerful closer, but after an injury in 2020, Yates' stock dropped. 

The Blue Jays signed him in 2021, and wouldn't see him suit up for the major league club. Then in 2022, Yates signed with the Braves, made his way back for 9 games and got back to what he was doing before. In the second year of the contract, Yates excelled in a middle relief role for Atlanta, with a 3.28 ERA and 80 Ks in 61 games. The way it was looking, while his closing days were behind him, he could still be extremely useful as a bullpen piece, and was capable of pitching into his late 30s.

Which is how we got here. Kirby Yates, the 37-year old closer for the defending champion Texas Rangers, who has once again discovered how to not give up runs.

There are several fundamental differences between the 2019 Padres and the 2024 Rangers. Status, accolades, depth, rookie success. The Rangers, however, are awfully human for a defending champion, and have skidded down to 2nd place in the AL West with a 17-15 record. They're still very good, and have a lot of assets that many teams would kill for, but they haven't completely taken off yet, and Nate Eovaldi's exit from today's game could indicate that he'll be joining Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Cody Bradford on the IL. 

The upside to that, in the case of Kirby Yates, is more save situations. The Rangers tried growing their own closer with Jose LeClerc, it didn't work. So they've mostly gotten by off rentals. Last year the saves went to Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman, who've both left for other, smaller markets. Yates got the ninth thanks to a strong spring, and he won the job over David Robertson, who's another excellent bullpen asset in his late 30s. I'm not saying we're in full on '2010s Rangers going with Arthur Rhodes and Darren Oliver' territory, but having Yates and Robertson with minimal ERAs and peak stuff is a nice feeling. 

Yates already has 5 saves, 2 wins and 14 Ks. He's also only given up 3 hits and 0 runs. You've seen a lot of truly dominant closers so far, between Yates, Clay Holmes, Robert Suarez, Emmanuel Clase and Evan Phillips. Yes, it's early, but you're already seeing who's starting out dominant, and who's building up momentum. Yates is one of the older names with an ERA below 1 here, but he's just as valid as the rest of them, even if he's less a 'career closer' and more a bullpen expert who can hold his own in the ninth.

I hope Yates, and the Rangers, keep things up, and I hope Yates walks away with another strong season to put with his classic 2019.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically, a former closer and reliever who's done pretty well in a starting position.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Braves

 

Of the teams loudly protesting against the round one bye in the new expanded playoff schematic, the Braves might be the loudest. They had an incredible season, hitting NL marks all around, and getting a high seed for the playoffs. And then, because they missed a week of play, they didn't hang onto their momentum and were trounced by the Phillies. With everything the Braves accomplished this year, including monster seasons from Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder and an all-timer MVP year from Ronnie Acuna, it's disappointing that their stellar regular season didn't amount to more in the postseason. 

But that's where we are right now. It's no longer about regular season achievements, it's about which teams can hold their momentum for 7 months rather than six, I guess.

Eddie Rosario had some great midyear spikes but I just couldn't get to him during the season, for a lot of the same reasons I didn't get to Chris Bassitt til this month either. Rosario never had to come close to his 2021 postseason numbers, but at the very least he improved over his comatose 2022, with 21 homers and 74 RBIs, despite a .255 average. He didn't have to be the absolute highlight of the roster, he just needed to hit for power, and he certainly did that. 

2024 Prediction: Rosario will be a replacement-level player for a middle of the road team. His days of being a postseason hero are probably over.

The Braves were ready for another great season from Kyle Wright this year, after an impressive 2022. Then...he got injured, missed most of the season, and was way shakier upon his return. Wright topped out at a 6.97 ERA, and was unable to pitch during the postseason. What I'm saying is, even if they did have a lot of respect for Wright in his development, this season destroyed any goodwill, and made it easier to part with the right-hander to clear space.

2024 Prediction: Will improve in Kansas City, but he could struggle without the run support.

An amusing comeback from 2023 was Kirby Yates, who, after becoming an excellent closing option in San Diego prior to the pandemic, struggled with injuries for three straight seasons. Yates finally was healthy enough to play a relief role in this year's Braves team, and he impressed, with a 3.28 ERA, 80 Ks, a 7-2 record and 5 saves. He only pitched one postseason inning, but he didn't allow any runs. 

2024 Prediction: No matter who signs him, it's probably not gonna be as good as that Braves year. At least he'll get a payday out of it. 

After a season of injuries spent on the Dodgers' bench, Kevin Pillar finally returned to the field this year. Clearly, this is not the same Kevin Pillar who commanded the crowd when I caught a game in Toronto a few years back. Pillar was used as an extra outfielder this year, and as a cover for Eddie Rosario mostly. Though he did make fans pine for Adam Duvall a bit, Pillar still was decent off the bench, hitting 9 homers and 32 RBIs in 81 games, in addition to some above-average outfield play. 

2024 Prediction: I believe Duvall in Atlanta was a perfect storm, and a lesser team trying to capitalize on this won't have the same results. Honestly, though, of any of his former teams, I think the Rockies have the highest chance of bringing him back. 

And then we have the very ballsy trade deadline move I've spoken of, nabbing Nicky Lopez from Kansas City as an extra middle infielder, forgetting that Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake were still on the team. Lopez was a quick fan favorite for the Braves on account of his contact bat; he hit .277 with 12 RBIs and 18 hits in 25 games. Even if he was basically a backup for Ozzie Albies, he was an extremely good one, though his immediate departure in exchange for Aaron Bummer was...slightly unsurprising, despite the necessity for him in July.

2024 Prediction: Of the three new middle infielders in Chicago [Lopez, Shewmake, DeJong], Lopez will have the best season. 

Coming Tomorrow- Several survivors of the latest, and final, Craig Counsell Brewers team to leave the playoffs empty handed. 

Always Be Closing: Kirby Yates

Once again, we roll out our recurring spotlight on closing pitching to talk about the guy who has the most saves of anyone in the MLB, San Diego's Kirby Yates.

Last year, this exact month, I wrote an ABC post about Brad Hand, who was doing the exact same thing for the Padres: closing a ton of games despite the team's general mediocrity. However, things have changed for the Padres. Instead of being a lock for last place, the Padres are now sort of a lock for fourth, with the D-Backs and Rockies a few wins ahead of them, battling for second.

Which is, if anything, an improvement.

I don't think there's a ton of comparison needed when talking about Yates and Brad Hand. Though I will say that Brad Hand is the type of closer whose abilities outweigh his team's: this is the second year in a row where he's been on the saves leaders list while playing for a team that's not in first, and whole the Indians are a lot better than the Padres right now, it's safe to say that their best days are behind them.

Yates, like Hand, came up as a middle reliever, switched teams a few times and eventually got handed the closing gig. And since taking over for Hand, Yates has been fantastic in the ninth, getting 12 saves in the last two months of the 2018 season, and having 23 saves so far this season. He's also a late bloomer, as he's 32 years old and just now reaching his potential.

...but it is quite a potential. Yates has a 1.24 ERA in 29 appearances, has finished a league-leading 28 games and has saved 23 of them. And since we're doing Hand comparisons, let's do the ratio: Kirby Yates has saved 67% of the Padres victories, comparative to Brad Hand's 60% this time last year.

So...is Kirby Yates a better closer than Brad Hand, or are the Padres just better now than they were with Brad Hand?

Honestly, I'm not sure. I have less stats to work with on Yates' side than Hand's, and Hand is still pitching beautifully in Cleveland, but it might just be the slight improvement of the San Diego offense. The games are still close, but the wins are more frequent. And it helps having Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and a consistent Franmil Reyes in that lineup. Run support is nice for closers.

For now, let's just say that Kirby Yates is one of the best closers in the league right now, and if the Padres are, in fact, selling at the deadline, then he's gonna make a team very happy in the postseason.

Coming Tonight: Another piece of proof that the Pirates gave up too much in the Chris Archer deal last year.

Crappy Team Roundup: Rangers & Padres

And now, two more teams that honestly don't have a ton worth writing about.

The Texas Rangers. Their big thing used to be hitting a ton of home runs, and it technically still is...just without the pitching to back it up. Their staff ace is 45-year-old Bartolo Colon...or maybe Mike Minor. I dunno, neither are especially burning down the house over there. At least Jose Leclerc has jumped into the closing position in Keone Kela's absence, but the pitching is mostly rusty, and a far cry from even the Wilson-Harrison-Holland-Lewis rotations of the early 2010s.

The lineup is fine. People are hitting. They're striking out a lot, especially Odor and Gallo, but this is normal. They've called up a lot of impressive rookies, like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronald Guzman, but they can only do so much. Beltre and Andrus have been steady, but they lost some time to injuries, and they may not be as sharp as they used to.

With the Astros, A's and Mariners battling up top, there's not much else the Rangers can do right now, but if Gallo wants to chase 40 again, I won't stop him.

At least the Rangers had a few good pitchers, and some home run hitters. What do the Padres have? Besides a cut lip on Wil Myers' part.

Good news is that, in the ashes of the departed closer Brad Hand comes Kirby Yates, who's been wheeling and dealing since taking the mantle. He's been one of the top performers on the team since the break, along with Wil Myers, who's working on coming back from a facial injury. Honestly, though? That's really all this team has.

The Padres have so many players with low averages and high-ish WARs, that are trying so hard to do well, but just are on the wrong team for success. Even Eric Hosmer's numbers have weakened since coming to San Diego, and he's deferred mostly to Myers, which says something.

The Padres just can't seem to shake this slump, and haven't been able to get a team to the postseason in over a decade. It's been a while since a truly great player has come from this farm system. They're eventually going to need to prove that they're not doomed, and they can still get a team to October. It just may take them a while.

Coming Tomorrow- A speedy, talented rookie that might eventually save the worst team in baseball.