Wheels in Motion

 There's really two main compact rotation units that have commanded the conversation recently. The Mariners' rotation, who've been working with Gilbert-Castillo-Kirby-Miller-Hancock and yielding excellent results, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Remember, like...8 years ago when the Phils just kept throwing people out there and hoping they lasted 5 innings? Y'know, guys like Jerome Williams, Jerad Eickhoff, Ben Lively, that ilk. It's wild that I can remember going to games and hoping we'd get through it. Whereas now you go to a game and you're basically set no matter who you see. Over the past few seasons I've seen starts from Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez in person, and the starting pitching has never really been an issue. 

Which brings us to 2024. Where the rotation is Wheeler-Nola-Suarez-Spencer Turnbull-Taijuan Walker/Cristopher Sanchez. And really the only one who's shed blood on the mound so far has been Walker, but that's in literally one start back, and one could make the case that the runs came from leaving him out there for too long. The main 5 have a combined 2.35 ERA, which is pretty fantastic.

And what's great is that the brunt of the work isn't just on Wheeler and Nola, the two veterans. Wheeler's having another great season, he's got a 1.91 ERA and 52 Ks, but he might not be even the best Phils starter right now. That honor would go to Ranger Suarez, who is 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA and has been dominant in a way not seen since his dangerous 2021. And then at the same time you have Spencer Turnbull, healthy for the first time in a while, with a 1.67 ERA and 36 Ks. Considering that Turnbull was a 'let's see if there's anything left' guy going into the season, for him to be as reliable as he's been has been a nice surprise. And it's at the point where I think Cristopher Sanchez knows he's #5, but he can still have big games and shut people out every so often. I think we're in good shape with this schematic, though I do wonder how Walker will continue to fit into things.

The Phils as a whole are doing all the right things. They were the first team to 20 wins, and they did so from second place considering that the Braves have a better record than us without winning 20. They just had Alec Bohm win a Player of the Week honor, he's currently hitting .362 with 30 RBIs. Turner and Marsh are also hitting like mad, Schwarber has 8 homers, Harper's been steady despite a low average and the bullpen's been on the mend. The team hasn't looked this good in April in years, and is hoping for a season that makes them a worthy adversary all-around. I hope they can build on this and keep being that hard to beat.

Coming Tomorrow- I was initially worried that his rookie contact numbers were the result of a fluke year. Turns out this is just what he does.

The Dugie Oddity

 

It's always the ex-Red Sox that look strange the first time they suit up for the Yankees. Johnny Damon in 2006 looked bizarre. Same with Kevin Youkilis in 2013, or Luis Tiant in 1979. The moment they start to really feel their own in a Yankee uniform is always good to savor, because then it doesn't look weird anymore. Jacoby Ellsbury, as maligned as he is, did have several moments of legitimacy as a Yankee. They were just too few. 

Which is why I worried a little when Alex Verdugo was dealt for. I initially thought he was bait for Juan Soto, but when the deal passed and we were left with Judge, Soto, Grisham AND Verdugo, and Dominguez and Jones somewhere down the line, I was a little confused. The last thing I wanted was for Verdugo to feel left out, and in New York, a city that's already had its issues with Verdugo, is not the place for somebody to get left out to dry. And so I just hoped that Dugie would continue his Boston progress and have a great season for us.

Now, let's not be coy here- Alex Verdugo still looks weird as a Yankee. Because of the 'no facial hair' rule, the blonde beard is gone, and all that's left is just an albino-looking tattooed guy. So he just looks like a secondary villain from a John Wick movie at the moment. And in his first few games, that was his main appeal. Some great plays in the outfield, the occasional contact hit, and...just looking really intimidating in pinstripes. 

Thankfully, Verdugo has become one of our most reliable players not named Juan Soto. He's hitting .269 with 28 hits, 13 RBIs and 4 homers, and is showing versatility already, with great contact moments, great power moments and great outfield moments. Verdugo-Judge-Soto has already been a fantastic outfield solely due to the impressive play out there, let alone all three's ability to terrorize pitchers. And already, the fans have taken to Dugie, and have respected his style of play as well as his fun-loving personality. A lot like Johnny Damon, Verdugo has become a hit here despite any indication that it'd be tricky.

The Yanks themselves have had something of a rough stretch, Brewers shellacking notwithstanding. They've dropped some games to Baltimore, which is gonna happen considering that they're just a more varied team than us. Rizzo's heating up but Volpe's cooled down. The starting 5 are still awesome but Rodon's last start has dulled his overall appeal. Eventually this team will be more than just The Juan Soto show, as Judge has bound to heat up eventually, but it's just a weak in-between stretch I guess. I expect improvement. We all do, I think.

And having somebody like Alex Verdugo doing well definitely helps.

Coming Tomorrow- Undoubtedly one of the best pitchers of the decade so far. 

2024 in Relievers-Turned Starters

 

If it weren't for Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks would be the most talked about starter in San Francisco. Through 6 starts, the former Cardinals wunderkind has been electric, with a 2-0 record, a 1.59 ERA and 27 strikeouts. He's not as overpowering and showoffish as he was in 2018, and he's learned to rein it in a bit while still dominating opposing offenses. 

What's wild about Hicks' 2024 is that it's an approach that the Giants weren't expected to take with Hicks. Upon his call-up in 2018, Hicks has primarily been used as a middle-reliever, and was only given some starts in 2022 when the Cards needed options. Last season, his middle-relief work was so strong that the Blue Jays traded for him and used him to bulk up their bullpen. But even with Hicks looking like a great fit for the Giants' already-strong 'pen, the team decided to use him as a starter, and plug him in with Webb, Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn. And it worked. That foursome has been strong as ever, and is a big reason why the Giants are still embedded in the race for the NL West.

Hicks, however, isn't the only big story this season involving a former relief piece spun into a starting option. There's actually a handful hanging around, and I'll go through some of the more intriguing ones.

Braves: I talked about him a little a few days ago, but Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez not only spent the 2023 season as a relief piece, he spent it getting beat up in relief. Yet something about Atlanta has caused him to turn things around and lead things off with a 1.50 ERA and 32 Ks. Lopez might have carved out a new niche for himself, and the Braves are certainly grateful.

Marlins: Eyebrows were raised around the league when it was announced that the Marlins would be using A.J. Puk, a career reliever with Oakland and Miami, in the rotation. Puk had been a starter before being called up by the A's, but was kept in the 'pen to conserve his innings and arm strength. However, considering how often Puk got injured with the A's, that didn't work. Puk did his best in a starting role for a team with no run support, but after 4 starts he had a 9.22 ERA and 4 losses. It's been chalked up to an injury, so we'll see if that helps, but certainly not a good first impression as a starter.

Padres: Before he was traded to the Yankees, Michael King was mainly used as a long reliever, a swiss army knife bullpen option. King started 9 games with the Yanks last year, but was more relied upon as a reliever. So far in his new team, King has 6 starts and one extra relief appearance, proving that his versatility is swinging towards helping the snakebitten rotation at the moment. King has a 5 ERA , but with a very impressive 40 strikeouts. He'll probably even out as he goes, as the Padres will give him much more of an opportunity to start than the Yankees could.

Rangers: After the Angels switched him to the rotation in 2022, Michael Lorenzen hasn't gone back, and has been a pro as a starter, despite finding fame as a reliever with Cincinnati. Lorenzen's Rangers era is already being seen as a comeback after his rocky finish with the Phils last year, and so far his 2-1 record and 4.24 ERA have been seen as promising by Rangers fans hoping not to lose anymore starters. 

Rays: It should not surprise you that the Rays are in this post, given their track record of flexible pitching. Zach Littell is the big one this year, he was primarily used as a relief piece by the Twins and Giants before the Rays picked him up last year and plugged him in for some starts. This year he made the Opening Day rotation and has been a very trustworthy presence there, with a 3.27 ERA and 35 Ks already. Tyler Alexander, another flexible pitcher with uses in many categories, is also on this pitching staff and could be relied upon to start in the future.

Red Sox: The Sox are honestly the king of this strategy, this current regime. We've seen Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck go from bullpen pieces to rotation royalty. Houck especially has been wonderful this year, with a 1.60 ERA and 41 Ks. And then we have Cooper Criswell, former Rays reliever who's been thrust into the rotation amidst the injuries, and HE'S been wonderful, going 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 4 appearances. The era of the Sox mega-rotation may be over, but they're getting a ton done economically with this strategy, and I'm here for it.

Royals: Seth Lugo was one of the most reliable relievers the Mets had during the late 2010s, and while he never got many starts due to the glut of starting pitching they had, he was certainly primed for it, to the point where he was being sold to teams last year as a starter rather than a reliever. The Padres bit, and Lugo gave them excellent material last year. The Royals signed him to a longer deal and Lugo's been rewarding them so far, with a 5-1 record, a 1.60 ERA and 31 Ks. He's already leading the leagues in innings pitched and batters faced, and after being a solid enough set-up man for years he's proving he can go 6 odd innings whenever it's needed.

So yeah, Hicks is just one of the many that's working out as a starter, and it's a trend I hope continues on all fronts. 

Coming Tonight: I wasn't initially following Bryan Cashman's logic when he traded for this guy, but I think I am now. 

Always Be Closing: From Out of Nowhere

 

In 2019, Kirby Yates was luckily enough to be the ninth inning heir apparent to a team that had a large number of save situations. Part of his success for the Padres that year was that he'd had such good luck in San Diego, and wasn't dropped into a closing job with no confidence. And so Yates went onto lead the league with 41 saves, plus a 1.19 ERA. It was a landmark season that gave Yates a reputation as a powerful closer, but after an injury in 2020, Yates' stock dropped. 

The Blue Jays signed him in 2021, and wouldn't see him suit up for the major league club. Then in 2022, Yates signed with the Braves, made his way back for 9 games and got back to what he was doing before. In the second year of the contract, Yates excelled in a middle relief role for Atlanta, with a 3.28 ERA and 80 Ks in 61 games. The way it was looking, while his closing days were behind him, he could still be extremely useful as a bullpen piece, and was capable of pitching into his late 30s.

Which is how we got here. Kirby Yates, the 37-year old closer for the defending champion Texas Rangers, who has once again discovered how to not give up runs.

There are several fundamental differences between the 2019 Padres and the 2024 Rangers. Status, accolades, depth, rookie success. The Rangers, however, are awfully human for a defending champion, and have skidded down to 2nd place in the AL West with a 17-15 record. They're still very good, and have a lot of assets that many teams would kill for, but they haven't completely taken off yet, and Nate Eovaldi's exit from today's game could indicate that he'll be joining Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Cody Bradford on the IL. 

The upside to that, in the case of Kirby Yates, is more save situations. The Rangers tried growing their own closer with Jose LeClerc, it didn't work. So they've mostly gotten by off rentals. Last year the saves went to Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman, who've both left for other, smaller markets. Yates got the ninth thanks to a strong spring, and he won the job over David Robertson, who's another excellent bullpen asset in his late 30s. I'm not saying we're in full on '2010s Rangers going with Arthur Rhodes and Darren Oliver' territory, but having Yates and Robertson with minimal ERAs and peak stuff is a nice feeling. 

Yates already has 5 saves, 2 wins and 14 Ks. He's also only given up 3 hits and 0 runs. You've seen a lot of truly dominant closers so far, between Yates, Clay Holmes, Robert Suarez, Emmanuel Clase and Evan Phillips. Yes, it's early, but you're already seeing who's starting out dominant, and who's building up momentum. Yates is one of the older names with an ERA below 1 here, but he's just as valid as the rest of them, even if he's less a 'career closer' and more a bullpen expert who can hold his own in the ninth.

I hope Yates, and the Rangers, keep things up, and I hope Yates walks away with another strong season to put with his classic 2019.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically, a former closer and reliever who's done pretty well in a starting position.

Slap Decision

 

You really thought Rhys Hoskins clearing the Met benches was gonna be an isolated incident, did you?

The Brewers, in addition to being one of the most tough-to-beat teams in baseball, might be one of the most volatile. Twice now this team has made news with benches-clearing brawls, and this most recent one, with Abner Uribe slapping Jose Siri outside the face, may be the most bloodthirsty act by someone named Abner since the cow-punching kerfuffle of 1897. 

[Look it up.]

The Brewers have been prone to flashy, news making exploits. I think about the Nyjer Morgan moment during the 2011 playoffs, and how it wouldn't have worked, or been as memorable, without that sort of exclamation point Morgan put on it. I think about the 2018 Brewers team that body slammed their way to the top and nearly made it all the way. This is a team that has always made its attitude known. Growing up, I remember the Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun teams, the years where Rickie Weeks outran everybody, the K-Rod years. This isn't a team that comes from subtlety. It's just a team that, in the past few years, has gone for the quieter, more steady approach, especially under Craig Counsell.

And I'm not going to say that the team has become a lot more volatile since the hiring of a manager that's so Irish that there've literally been Irish folk songs written about a famous hard-drinking countryman of the same name....but the timing does make sense, does it now? I mean, don't go with 'Pat Murphy Taught the Brewers How To Fight', but...it does feel like the gloves are kinda off now that Counsell's in Chicago. Y'know, the respected guy's gone, quick, Abner, punch out the Rays outfielder!

And again, this would be less amusing if it wasn't a team that had it coming. I've made my disdain for the Tampa Bay Rays known just on the basis of their pitchers' ideas on pride month, and while the Wander Franco story hasn't exactly redeemed them in my eyes, seeing people like Jalen Beeks, Ryan Thompson and Brooks Raley on other teams has made it a little easier to tolerate them. But they're not a good team this year, and they're still trying to pretend like they are. So if they're not gonna have a reality check on their own, maybe having a Brewers reliever knock some sense into one of the only people who's hitting will do that for them.

All of this aside, the Brewers are actually doing a lot right at the moment, even without Christian Yelich. Freddy Peralta's done a great job of heading up the rotation, he's 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 45 Ks. This is prime material for Peralta, and even without Woodruff or Burnes he's been dominant. Colin Rea has somehow been pretty sturdy behind him, who'd have thought? Blake Perkins, Joey Ortiz, Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick have solid roles on this team, Brice Turang is coming into his own, Rhys Hoskins is power hitting and Willy Adames is heating up. Even with the 30-run deficit in two games against New York, the Brewers are still looking dominant and strong, and clearly nobody wants to mess with them.

Coming Tonight: Someone I never expected to hold down a closing gig again. 

Greene Machine

 

As some other things have settled in the AL Central, some things about the Tigers have become more clear. It was established early on that the Tigers are good this year. But after a week where the Guardians have gone toe-to-toe with Houston, the Royals have continued to impress at long last, and the Twins have won ten in a row, the Tigers might be the least interesting good team in the division.

And that feels like a bit of a gut punch. People have been waiting 10 years for the Tigers to be good again, or even relevant. They withstood years of people like Mikie Mahtook or JaCoby Jones or Joe Jimenez trudging around out there trying their best. And now that the Tigers actually have a winning record and a decent backbone, they're just not as interesting as the rest of the division. Even the White Sox are more interesting by being terrible! The Tigers are just kinda there right now. GOOD, but...there.

I think the issue is that there isn't a towering hero figure for this team right now. The Royals have Bobby Witt, the Twins have Pablo Lopez, the Guardians have Steven Kwan. The Tigers do have Riley Greene, and he has been pretty heroic for this team so far, with impeccable defense, 7 homers and 15 RBIs. But he's not as fully formed as people would like him to be, as he's still striking out too much and is only hitting .257. This is his best start yet, and it's looking like, if all goes well, this will be the kind of season that Tigers fans have been hoping for. But...I don't know if he's all the way there yet. Bobby Witt seems to be all the way there. I don't get that about Greene yet, and I'm not all that sure why.

It's similar to Casey Mize, who was this team's can't miss prospect, then went in for surgery, came back and now he's...human. Y'know, he's a serviceable starter. 3.08 ERA, 18 Ks. Because of arm conservation he's not in the game much and not throwing hard. I know he's already 27 but I'm worried that a great deal of his edge has been sanded off, and he might not hit the heights he could prior. But again, he could just need a boost, and he could be alright eventually. If we didn't have Tarik Skubal pitching like a pro I'd be more worried.

I will say, to this team's credit, the biggest story the Tigers made this week was Jack Flaherty absolutely stymieing his former team, with a career-high 14 strikeouts and 2 hits in a game the Cardinals would win the second he stepped off the mound. Jack Flaherty isn't 100% 'back', he's got a 4 ERA overall so far, but he's looked more dominant with Detroit than he did with Baltimore, and he's adding a lot to this rotation unit. I'm hoping he improves further as the season goes on, but, again, we'll have to see.

The Tigers have an impeccable bullpen, so many great young players, a rookie outfielder who can hit homers from both sides of the plate, and lots of cool nooks and crannies that took them years to really employ. This is their best team in years, and while I find it very funny that it may not be enough to completely break out this year [considering how ho-hum the competition usually is in the AL Central], I think they can build on this and outlast a few of their competitors if the right circumstances line up.

Coming Tomorrow- A Milwaukee Brewer that hasn't gotten in a fight with anyone yet.

April 2024 in Review [feat. Gunnar Henderson]

 

We are already a month into the 2024 season, a season that seemed so ripe with promise and intrigue. Already we've seen the elapsing of a league wide uniform quality scandal whose resolution comes essentially with an IOU, a visible decrease in umpiring quality, two of the worst teams in recent baseball history, and a dozen or so of the best pitchers in the game immediately getting injured. And, might I stress, some good things as well.

Like usual on the blog, I'm gonna be keeping track of the progress of MLB events month by month, confirming what the big names and teams of the moment are, and expecting the picture to change as we go. As it's April, I'm not expecting this picture to really become the final statement about this season. We'll get there.

So first, let's talk about 5 things from April 2024 that no one could predict:

1. The Jackson Holliday experiment fails without hurting the O's. It was gonna be here anyhow, the fact that the Orioles didn't call up Jackson Holliday for Opening Day, then called him up midway through the month, he only got a hit or so, and then immediately went back down to Norfolk. That already isn't on many bingo cards. But the fact that the Orioles did all this with their organizational cracker jack prize, it didn't work, and they're still in first...that is the bigger takeaway. All of the big stars are holding their weight- Rustchman and Burnes are big stars, Gunnar Henderson had 10 homers this month and has hit .289, Grayson Rodriguez is finally feeling like a star. And then all these extra guys, like Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Cole Irvin and Albert Suarez are having impressive starts. This April has been the best case scenario for the Orioles, even with Holliday's disappointment. At this rate, it's only gonna get better.

2. Exactly how low the floor was for Houston. 9-19...with 4 injured starters and 2 who had to miss starts, and a Jose Abreu that's forgotten how to hit. I think people thought that the Astros would be a step back this year, but not like this. Even with Altuve, Tucker and Diaz surging, even with Ronel Blanco refusing to give up hits, even with Justin Verlander throwing like somebody younger than 41...this team has pitching problems, defense problems and age problems. And just calling people up and hoping they fit in is just a temporary issue. For reasons that will be brought up later in the post, this is a dire moment for the Astros, and one that none of them really thought would happen.

3. Reynaldo Lopez is the ace in Atlanta. Yes, Max Fried has had some excellent moments, yes, Chris Sale and Charlie Morton have the most experience, and yes, Bryce Elder might be the most impressive, but the single most consistent starting pitcher for the 1st place Atlanta Braves has been Reynaldo Lopez, a guy who played for 3 teams last year and flirted with double digits in relief. Lopez starting in the rotation over Bryce Elder stunk of 'Orlando Arcia over Vaughn Grissom', and like that move the Braves knew what they were doing. So far, Lopez has a 0.72 ERA with 2 wins and 24 Ks in 4 starts. Lopez just isn't allowing runs right now, and his dominant play is a shock to people remember how inconsistent he was with Chicago. If he keeps it up, that's another security blanket for a team with lots of 'worst case scenario' plans.

4. The A's might finish their Oakland run with an improvement. It's fascinating how much of this A's team works this year, and how they've become a third place team despite the heights of the Angels this year. There's a better bullpen, led by the unhittable Mason Miller, and a firmer rotation led by Paul Blackburn continuing his excellent work. There's better power hitting, guys like Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers who can get things done at the plate, and actual contact hitters like Esteury Ruiz and Tyler Nevin. Even if this team is far from competing, they're closer to an actual cohesive unit than they've been in years, and are earning their place in the standings for now. 

5. Elly de la Cruz is for real. He hits for average, he hits for power, he steals bases and he makes plays in the infield. And right now he's doing all of them extremely well. So far this year, Elly de la Cruz has 8 home runs, 19 RBIs and 18 steals, and leads the Reds in hits and OPS. He's faster than anybody, harder to get out than ever, and he's fantastic to watch. I see the rest of the season being just as incredible for him.

And in a sharp contrast to that, here are 5 things from April 2024 that you probably could have predicted:

1. Juan Soto requires no learning curve in the Bronx. Almost immediately, Soto was smacking hits away and making insane catches and throws in the outfield. He's already one of the best players on the Yankees, hitting .316 with 24 RBIs and 7 homers. The fans love him, he's got a solidified place in the lineup, and he doesn't look like he's letting up anytime soon.

2. The White Sox crumble. All the stars leave, the rest get hurt. And what's left is a bunch of replacement level guys and a ton of inexperienced rookies. It's not fun to watch, and it's so hard to find the silver linings. Erick Fedde is one of their best players now, but who knows when he'll buckle along with the rest of them. 

3. Teams did the right thing in holding off on Blake Snell. An 0-3 record with an 11.57 ERA and 15 runs allowed in just three games in San Francisco. If they didn't have four of the best pitchers in the game right now around him, they'd be absolutely screwed. 

4. The Mariners pitching is no joke. Gilbert-Castillo-Miller-Kirby-Hancock has been absolutely untouchable in the last half of the month, culminating in a Bryce Miller performance that nearly silence the Atlanta Braves. This unit, even without Bryan Woo or Robbie Ray, works for them, and looks to keep stifling AL West batters all year long.

5. The Pirates' big start evens out almost immediately. It used to be the Royals that always did this, now it's the Pirates. After a huge start, the schedule evened out and once the Pirates started having to play better teams, the losses started piling up. Even with Jared Jones striking everybody out, it's clear how flawed this team is after a month of play, and they need to start getting it together. 

Now, here are, in my opinion, the 5 Most Important Players of April 2024

1. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Elly de la Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

3. Juan Soto, New York Yankees

4. Shoot Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

5. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

And finally, 5 predictions for May 2024:

1. Jackson Holliday returns to the major leagues and finally cracks it. 

2. One of those guys who's been an early pitching favorite gets injured and Manfred gets away with it.

3. Somebody big who hasn't really had a great start to the season jumps into the conversation in a major way.

4. There's at least more mirage start waiting to pop, and we'll see it in May.

5. An unbelievable home run tear by someone we're not expecting. 

That was a pretty interesting April let's see how May turns out