Satisfaction Not Guaranteed

 

There's been a lot written, or made or whatever, about the myth of the tragic character who has everything but is willing to risk it all for the one empty space he's after. The man who has every opportunity to settle and be happy with what he's done but isn't finished until it feels perfect. The Jay Gatsby parable, the O. Henry type hero, the tragic hero who undoes himself. You see it with every celebrity, the people that keep chasing the high and forgetting what they have, til they look perfect, til they have everything. 

So by that metric I totally understand why, after winning two World Series' in a row, the Dodgers went and got Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker. They're not satisfied yet. They want Jordan Bulls numbers, Torre Yanks numbers, Belichick numbers, they want a dynasty because they have enough to procure it. I completely get that. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy it, but it's nice when something that seems mighty and powerful admits its shortcomings and actively does what it can to mend them, for all to see.

The Edwin Diaz acquisition points to a frightening truth about the Dodgers, that since parting ways with Kenley Jansen they've yet to find a truly terrific closing option. They went with Craig Kimbrel, arguably in a year where they didn't really need a closer, and he was mediocre. They brought up Evan Phillips, he had one terrific season then some injuries, and while he's stayed in LA the prevailing theory is that he's probably better off as a set-up man. They tried Tanner Scott last year, best available, and he had his weakest year yet, blowing saves and squandering the opportunity. Even Kirby Yates, the backup option that booted Ryan Brasier off the team, had a 5.25 ERA last year, and is hopefully still able to put in any work for this team.

So, again, with Scott, Yates and Phillips relegated to middle relief work, the Dodgers went with the best available bullpen option, this year being Mets stalemate Edwin Diaz. And it's a tricky conundrum, because  Edwin Diaz has, at many points, excelled as a closing pitcher. Both 2022 and 2025, Diaz displayed both ninth inning dominance and 30+ save years, something that seems all too rare. The saves totals were never terribly high in Queens because...I mean honestly a number of reasons but mainly the saves are more often to be blown than not with some of those teams. There's also just years in between where he was just...fine. Y'know, did his thing, maybe his ERA was closer to 4 than it should be.

Edwin Diaz is one of the best active closing options, and in an age where the closing position is more 'what have you done for me lately' than ever, the fact that he's kept this job for 10 years despite waning dominance is great. Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Josh Hader, they've all similarly had down years but they've always bounced back. And so has Diaz, even if it isn't always as pronounced. 

I say this because the Dodgers shelled out the extra money to ensure that they have a closing option, in Diaz, that works. But it shouldn't have come to this. Phillips should have been sustainable. Scott should have kept the momentum going. So even as they look to repeat as Champions for a third straight year, the Dodgers are still trying to plug this hole in the ninth with Edwin Diaz, and even then that's not guaranteed to be the working variable. 

At least with Kyle Tucker you get the sense that the success will happen from the jump. Tucker's in his prime, he had another excellent year with Chicago last year, he's a proven postseason bat, he's perfect for this team. Diaz, even with his track record, isn't a sure thing because no closer is a sure thing anymore. And the fact that Diaz, who's had some of the best seasons by a reliever in the past 10 years, is considered an erratic option comparatively--that says a lot. 

The Dodgers are banking on this to work, and for Diaz and Tucker to get them at least 2 more rings now that everybody else is nailed down. It's just a matter of whether or not another flaw becomes apparent, and if another team can work hard enough to exploit it.

How Do You Get Anywhere?

 
Obviously the discourse surrounding the planned salary cap/floor has been completely normal and has been met with absolutely rational thinking. 

Right.

The players don't want a cap, the owners don't want a floor. Manfred has discussed a floor, who knows how high it'll be. The whole point is to incentivize small-market teams to actually build competitors and not be afraid to spend money on high assets. Already this past offseason, you've seen the Athletics, Orioles and Pirates spend more money than they have in years on genuine pieces to grow from, ranging from extended young players to contracted veterans. Obviously some did more than others, and the Pirates arguably should have done more of the extending, but a change does seem to be apparent.

And yet there still continues to be teams that are good, and will continue to be in the conversation, yet consistently let homegrown talent go for the sake of keeping the payroll low. The Brewers and Guardians may still compete this year, and both are expected to. The way both youth movements are going, they will be fine for a while. But this marks another year for both teams where stars have been traded, or left via free agency, and have been replaced with cheaper options. And that's not the direction teams should be going. There's running it back and then there's taking a running start and breaking into a stroll instead.

The Guardians' offseason was very 'business as usual' knowing them. No extreme moves, no big departures, but...that in itself is telling. In 2024, the Guardians made an ALCS, then they traded Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor and mostly 'ran it back'. Then in 2025, with mostly the same team and even more youth, they traded Shane Bieber midyear then somehow still won the division after an incredible September. And then...repeat. Running it back, relying on young stars, not building on it. On one hand, I sort of get it- signing the occasional free agent, like Eddie Rosario or Josh Bell, hasn't really worked for this team. Rhys Hoskins was a late-offseason signing that only happened because Dave Dombrowski foolishly didn't want him back. 

But on the other...the only way this team can ensure a more dominant regular season performance that doesn't need to rely on late momentum is by putting money into the team. Having a young team helps, but there are people in the league who could do better than a ton of these starters. Arias, Rocchio, Jones, Martinez...they're not proven MLB options right now. It's nice that the rotation looks better this year, and that Gavin Williams has finally proven himself as an MLB starter, but you're kinda hoping that Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick can do full seasons of what they all showcased for like a month. 

I forget who said this, but someone in an interview let on that Jose Ramirez was undervaluing himself in order to stay in Cleveland. As in, because he enjoyed the organization so much and saw loyalty towards it, he was intentionally not taking better money elsewhere. And this player said this as if it was a disparaging thing, like the optimal thing is asking for Shohei Ohtani money as a mid-level star. Jazz Chisholm will never get the contract he wants because he's limited in a few respects. Jose Ramirez could theoretically be making Ohtani money, but getting to play in Cleveland as a legend til he retires is more important to him than taking a paycheck somewhere he's not as certain about. Honestly, more players should be like Jose Ramirez. It doesn't excuse the Guardians refusing to pay other players, but at least the players they do pay have the right idea. 

Then you have the Brewers. The Brewers could have been a World Series team last year, and were unlucky enough to have to face the Dodgers in an NLCS. They succeeded where so many other Brewers teams failed, and built a strong enough squad to master the second half, even outdoing the Cubs late. In response to that finish, the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins, three crucial members of the team, to competitors. Trading Durbin and Collins felt really short-sighted, as they're both young players with a lot of upside. But the object in Milwaukee is to make room for other young talent, like Jett Williams and Jesus Made and Logan Henderson.

And that angle I sort of get. This farm system is popping out gold on the reg, then having absolutely no opportunity to play, oftentimes because of other prospect dumps. Durbin was from the Devin Williams trade [already undone], Joey Ortiz was from the Corbin Burnes trade [already undone], Chad Patrick was dealt for Abraham Toro, a deal no one remembers. And now you're seeing it happen again, as David Hamilton, who came over for Durbin, is now a favorite to start at third, meaning Williams might be waiting even longer here than he would have in Queens. 

But at the same time...if you have an opportunity to go 'that was our opportunity, we can't let it happen again', you have to go for more than that. There were tons of free agents available, and they wound up with Brandon Woodruff for one last ride essentially and Gary Sanchez. And we're back in rebuild mode essentially. Like 'well this MIGHT work, but who knows'. You're trying to outdo the Cubs, who CAN overspend on a competitor, and you're hoping the same luck that happened in August this year can happen again, without a portion of what made it possible. 

So now the pressure is on people like Chad Patrick, who was good last year but at least could be under Freddy Peralta, or Quinn Priester, who was a winning man for the Brewers for a while with a more varied lineup, or Andrew Vaughn, who finally figured it out at the plate midyear but saw the HRs drop over time, to repeat their luck. Everyone has said that if Jackson Chourio finally has an Acuna-style breakout year this is within reach, and I agree. The team wouldn't have signed him to a major contract before he'd even played a game if he didn't have the potential to be a team giant, and last year pointed in that direction. This team just needs to build on 2025, and hopefully they can do so with a lighter payroll, even as the Cubs reload theirs. 

I always want the small-market teams to do well. But the point is that under the current imbalance of power in the MLB, it's becoming harder and harder for them to do so. I want the Guardians and Brewers to do well, but I also want them to be able to afford sustained success. Hopefully that's at all possible.

World in Motion

 

Whatever picture has been crafted of the 30 MLB teams during the first couple weeks of spring training is now drastically altered due to the mass exodus of players warming up for the World Baseball Classic. I think they used to time this so that it'd happen earlier and the WBC guys would eventually rejoin the team squads in time for longer games and full-squad scrimmages. And now it's happening later and, as the MLB clubs ramp up spring action, they'll be doing so with incomplete squads. 

I think the good news about the White Sox heading into the next couple weeks is that they are not solely Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Teel. Maybe last year, or the year before, if those two players were taken out of the lengthened scrimmages and they had to develop a gameplan without those two guys, it'd be a little trickier. But the White Sox, somehow, have more of a team this year. Perhaps not enough to compete, but enough to not be a complete laughingstock.

First of all, this spring has confirmed that Murakami is the kind of contact DH that this team kinda needs. He's not all about the long ball, but he's got enough pop to get people home, and in droves. Murakami could have signed lots of places, and it's clear that it took his stock plummeting for him to land in Chicago, but everything about Murakami's demeanor tells me this is where he wants to be. He's not Shohei Ohtani, he's not 'I have to be the best'. Murakami didn't need LA money, he just wanted to be somewhere he could succeed, and he's crafty enough to see that in Chicago. So far, he's looking like an impressive piece for this team.

But even without him, the White Sox just have more depth this year. They're going in with Teel, Edgar Quero, Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery at the MLB level, and that's a really cool young core with a high ceiling and immediate perks. This season also means figuring out whether Brooks Baldwin and Miguel Vargas are transitional pieces or if they can actually factor into this team. I still think Vargas is just a placeholder guy that isn't meant to be a building block. Not everyone can wind up with an Anthony Rizzo or a Cedric Mullins immediately. And then they now have Austin Hays, who seems to thrive better in cities that aren't major or metropolitan for...some reason, so him in Chicago will be interesting. The rotation has been supplanted by Erick Fedde, as well as Anthony Kay post-overseas reinvention, so basically Erick Fedde 2 years ago. I'm hoping Fedde just thrived with these pitching coaches, cause he really couldn't figure it out last year. 

If all goes according to plan, this team will build enough of a base this March that, once Murakami comes back, he'll supplant the preexisting energy, and they'll be off to a decent start. Cause there's a lot more going on here, not even counting the potential call-ups of Braden Montgomery and Wikelman Gonzalez. Maybe Murakami knew something was coming and he wanted to be on the ground floor before it got big. And hopefully it goes better for him than it's gone for Masataka Yoshida.

Comeback Rookie of the Year

 

There have been a lot of unnecessary additions to rookie discourse, like teams intentionally keeping players down to control service time, Topps' unnecessarily early rookie cutoff only depicting Rookie of the Year stories that happen in the first one and a half months of the season, the entire 2020 season, where Devin Williams got an award for having a good August, and the very definition of what counts as a rookie season keeping players eligible for awards even after making a breakout impact. It's all a little bit broken, and it's kind of unfairly balanced against the players' side. I still don't think Luis Gil deserved a ROY award in 2024, because to me his rookie season was 2021, because that was the season where he set a rookie record. 

But what's really complicated talking about rookies now is the unnecessary conditioning of pitchers to throw hard in their teens and overexert themselves to the point where, by the time they hit the majors, they're a ticking time-bomb waiting for Tommy John surgery. Nobody works their way up anymore, nobody embraces craftsmanship. It's all about smoke, because it's all about longballs. All extremes. So the rookie of the year, if it's a pitcher, is a lot of the times 'which pitcher went the longest without getting hurt'. Luis Gil was that and he wasn't even a rookie. 

So it's gonna be very interesting to see how people talk about Andrew Painter this year. Andrew Painter is 100% a rookie, he's never played an MLB game, his likely Opening Day roster inclusion will mark his MLB debut. But with the way Painter's development has gone, I'm not even sure if this season will truly feel like a rookie campaign for him. Painter, a 2021 first-rounder, was looking MLB-ready for a 2023 debut, and then in Spring Training his arm started showing wear, and so he got Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2024, and was shaky in Lehigh Valley all last year, hence no call-up. If he had made the majors in 2023, if that damage was found a month or so later, then some of those 5.20 ERA Lehigh starts would have been major league starts, meaning 2026 would be primed for a comeback campaign, sort of like Casey Mize last year. 

But because Painter never reached the majors, his comeback season at 23 will also be his rookie season. Meaning if, by some chance, Painter starts 32 games with a 3 ERA and wins a Rookie of the Year, which is not impossible, it'll have some very interesting subtext, a rookie season with the energy of a post-TJ comeback season. How will it be judged? How will PAINTER be judged going forward? 

If any Phillies season would need a dominant Andrew Painter season, it would be this one. Ranger Suarez is gone, Zack Wheeler might still miss some starts, Aaron Nola might be past his prime, and it's really looking like Taijuan Walker might be relied upon for a bit. In a scenario where Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Nola and Walker are rounding out the Opening Day rotation, and the Phillies want to remain a match against the Mets and Braves, they need Painter as a great MLB option. It's a lot of pressure, yes, but seeing as Painter's been terrific went healthy, and went 13th overall for a reason, it could work out. The thing I think is troublesome is the fact that for the Phillies to retain dominance, they need Painter to get MLB hitting immediately, and I'm not 100% sure of that yet. 

The Phillies have the appearance of a team beckoning on diminishing returns, with no real new blood and a lot of core people hoping to shake off rumors of going past their prime. Andrew Painter, and for that matter Justin Crawford and the potential of an Aidan Miller debut, could quiet that. If there's a successful shift to the next era, the Phillies could remain a league superpower in the same way the Astros have, just persisting. It just takes a lot going right this year, and a full, healthy season from Painter is a huge part of that.

Reproducing the Unexpected

 

There's a colleague of mine who's had a whirlwind 6 months. His baseball team is the Blue Jays, and he got to see them make a World Series this year. And his football team is the Seahawks, and he got to watch them defy the odds and win a Super Bowl. That's a lot of good stuff in a small period of time, especially after the Jays' last WS appearance was over 30 years ago and the Seahawks' last Super Bowl appearance was over 10 years ago. A decade of nothing and then everything at once sure is a nice change of pace.

I think that one of those two teams has built enough to engineer playoff pushes and potential championship campaigns for the next few years. Unfortunately it's not the Blue Jays. 

The Blue Jays' 2025 season, as triumphant as it was, happened because of so many other factors. The momentum the Jays found was sustained even as the Yankees, Mariners and Tigers failed to expand on their strong regular seasons. The approach the Jays entered the season with was altered, and once the team fully favored the contact platooning and bare-bones battery, nobody could really outclobber that. Any power perk the team thought they'd get by signing Anthony Santander was less important than the contact perks of giving Ernie Clement, Myles Straw, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes and Davis Schneider more playing time. Lukes accomplished more at DH than Tony Taters did, which was a reality the Jays were not really thinking of last February. 

The 2025 Jays worked because nobody was quite prepared for them, and nobody could handle a full-season momentum like they could. But with every runaway surprise team comes the possibility of diminishing returns. There's two ways this team goes forward. Either it's the pie in the sky way, where this IS sustainable, Trey Yesavage is exactly who they think he is, nobody gets injured and everything falls in line exactly how it did in 2025...or the cynical view, where the lack of Bo Bichette, the overpaying for Dylan Cease and thereby losing out on Kyle Tucker, the steepening competition in the AL East and the inevitable atrophy of the deliberate recreation of success keep the team from making much of a dent in the overall picture of 2026. Both are possible. One more than the other.

Eyes are going to be on Ernie Clement to have a bigger season this year. There's no Bo, I'm guessing this'll be a down Springer year, and the team needs Clement to step up and continue his multi-tool contact work. It's just not clear if Clement is going to be that guy or not. He'll be 30 this year, he's still an ace defender, but he's never been the full package at the plate. Last year he had 151 hits, a career high, in addition to highs in the runs and doubles categories. He'll likely be starting at second due to Kazuma Omamoto taking third, meaning Andres Gimenez will be moving to short. It might not click immediately for any of them. Either Clement steps up and takes a larger stake in this team, or he continues on as a 'good piece' without much further use. That's gonna be the big takeaway from this coming season, whether the carousel of 'good pieces' that got the team so far into the playoffs have staying power beyond the 2025 season. I'd love for Addison Barger to cement himself, but will he? Same with Lukes. 

The rotation, at the very least, is less of a worry because there's already so many contingency plans. It's gonna be Cease-Gausman-Yesavage-Berrios-Ponce, Bieber will come back eventually, Scherzer will surface when he's ready and Lauer is the longman who can take starts if need be. That's a very good plan. There's also enough guys in their prime that there's not an extreme atrophy worry [though Gausman coooould take a step back]. If anything, the pitching will keep them competitive. But if what worked in 2025 stalls in 2026, they might need to crumple and toss again at some point.

With the talent they have on that roster, and the potential they've showed in the playoffs, the Blue Jays are still a formidable team. Clearly. They kept Vlad Jr. for a reason. I'm just not sure if the AL East is theirs right now, let alone the AL title. But we'll see I suppose.

The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

The New Unwinnables

 

Remember how for a good decade or so there was all this hubbub about the Mariners and Phillies not making the playoffs, and then they expanded the playoffs and they did and now the next nearest playoff drought is, like...the Reds, who're probably gonna be in this year anyhow?

Yeah. It's less exciting now, I guess. It's not like the NFL where even if they keep expanding the playoffs there'll still be teams who've never won an NFC Championship or haven't won a playoff game since Clinton was in office or whatever. The MLB playoff format has made it easier for a mediocre team to not only make the playoffs, but go all the way. At the same time, though, the new playoff environment has still left behind a lot of teams that could be off to a promising competitive career had the expansion not happened. 

The Toronto Blue Jays, who everybody got really excited for in 2019 when they brought up Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette, have been to the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, and have yet to even win a playoff game. With everything they've built, and every great young player that's established themselves in Toronto, they have less playoff wins in that stretch than Minnesota, Seattle and Philadelphia. Ain't that something?

And you can point to several different factors when talking about this, because the Jays have only now reached a solid, winning manager in John Schneider, but until he gets them past the wild card round he's gonna just be that grey area type guy. He's better at it than Montoyo, it seems, but we won't know whether or not he's the answer until something happens. There's also the injury factor: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled not only with injuries but the beginnings of bottoming out. Bo Bichette has missed time pretty regularly. George Springer has missed time every year pretty much. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah famously had maintenance issues for them in the past few years.

Yet one factor that has to be said about the modern incarnation of the Jays? Last year they had 4 guys start 31+ games with a sub-4 ERA. You know how rare that it nowadays? Most people get to, like, 20 and get hurt. All of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi had solid, consistent seasons of 150 or more innings last year, with each throwing over 180 strikeouts as well. Gausman famously had a Cy Young caliber campaign, and would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for those meddling Yanks. All four of those guys are back this year, and though Gausman, for some reason, is having shoulder issues after pitching 32 games of the best material of his career, all of the rest of them look good this spring, especially Berrios.

Chris Bassitt, for the record, may be one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball right now, solely because he's consistent, makes all his starts and eats innings. The last two seasons he's won 15+ games, which, again, is rare in an era where most starters only go til the 5th. Last year he led the league in wins with 16, again, a sign of where we are in baseball history. I really hope he keeps it up, he's been a refreshingly strong presence in an era of overthrowing. 

The Jays do technically have enough to compete this year, with Bo looking to lead again, the core looking healthy and strong, and enough new pieces like IKF, Turner and possibly Votto to sweeten the deal. It's still a very tough division, and a very tough Wild Card picture, so it's not a done deal yet. But if this can be the team that not only makes the playoffs but gets to the next round, that'd be pretty cool.

10 years after they pissed me off, the Jays are a team I can root for again. How about that?

2024's Biggest Ifs

 

I associate Pablo Sandoval with strong spring showings. In 2017 I caught a few Spring Training games, caught the Sox a few times and Pablo Sandoval looked incredible in those games, nailing home runs and looking better than he has in years. I thought it'd be the sign of a strong season, and even if it wasn't, seeing him looking confident again was a great feeling. He really fell off after his early 2010s run with the Giants, but he was able to drum up some magic in spurts during the rest of his career.

Imagine my surprise when I start hearing about the comeback attempt Sandoval was putting together. It was inexplicable. I thought Panda's career wrapped up after the Braves traded him to Cleveland and Cleveland promptly released him [which is just a thing they do now apparently]. But evidently Sandoval was not done, and was doing his damnedest to make the team with his old club, San Francisco, despite years of inactivity. To Sandoval's credit he's lost a lot of weight, and his slimmer and more conditioned frame does make for a more powerful overall ballplayer. 

Now, whether or not he makes the team is another thing entirely, as the Giants have Matt Chapman at third base and a lot of younger infield options. But there's always a chance he makes the team in a DH role. It's one of many interesting stories that have continued to perplex me as Spring Training winds down.

Here, I'll try and pick one player from the other 29 teams [or as many that I can] that has a fascinating story, and could find his way to the bigs this year.

Angels: Miguel Sano, who was a home run machine for the Twins then completely fell apart due to injuries and striking out too much. He's in camp with the Angels, and it's not likely that he'll make the team, but with the changing infield gameplan the Angels have it can't quite be counted out.

A's: More of a shoo-in than anything, but J.D. Davis won his arbitration hearing with the Giants and was suddenly cut. This is an issue that owes itself to the continued disparity between the owners and players, and is a bubbling issue that could lead to an even more volatile strike in the future. Davis was lucky to find a job on the other end of the bay, and now seeks to make his old team jealous with a great season in a small market.

Blue Jays: Well if I don't say Joey Votto here I guess I'm a terrible person. Guy spent his whole offseason waiting for someone to let him play, his hometown team picks him up. I really hope he makes the squad, Joey Votto needs Blue Jays cards.

Braves: Up until last year, David Fletcher was an infield standout for the Angels, but a cross between injuries and general inefficiency left him off the Angels' new gameplay. He's a long shot for playing time in Atlanta, but considering the Braves spent the whole offseason trading away in-house backup infielders, he still has a shot.

Brewers: Joe Ross is one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. He's been on the cusp of great seasons and gotten injured for long periods of time. He was having an incredible year for Washington a few years back and immediately got hurt. Now somehow he's figuring well enough into the Brewers' depth chart to potentially make the rotation over DL Hall and Jakob Junis. I hope it goes well for him.

Diamondbacks: Elvis Andrus has been in the league since 2009, and has been a sturdy infielder for all this time. His numbers have fallen off in recent years with Oakland and Chicago, but he has an outside chance of making camp with the D-Backs, a team that he'd look extremely weird representing. 

Guardians: Gotta be Deyvison De Los Santos, a former Arizona farmhand claimed by Cleveland, who's been annihilating the ball this spring. It's unclear whether he'll crack the club initially, as Will Brennan might have the last spot, but it's likely he'll make the team at some point this year. And when he does, look out.

Marlins: Despite a rough go of things in Chicago last year, Trey Mancini is still hanging on, and is gunning for a corner spot out of camp. With Josh Bell having 1st, it's not clear how likely Mancini is to get it, but if this is the end for the fan-favorite, at least it happened in a club he looks strange on.

Mets: I had no idea Jose Iglesias was still kicking around, but he's one of many odd NRI guys in Mets camp, alongside Ji-Man Choi, Luke Voit, Ben Gamel and Yolmer Sanchez. I know the infield is open in Ronny Mauricio's absence, but who knows if it'll be open enough to allow for Iglesias.

Nationals: Eddie Rosario spent the past few years on the pennant-contending Braves, and now he's not even much of a favorite to make the last-place Nats. Kind of insane. He still could crack the roster just because they need veterans, but does he still have his best material?

Orioles: Ronald Guzman is trying to make the Orioles, but not as a corner infield masher...as a relief pitcher! Granted, Charlie Culberson's switch to pitching hasn't gone very well, but Guzman could very well factor into things for Baltimore, especially if the bullpen is as flea-bitten as it seems.

Phillies: Spencer Turnbull really has an outside chance of being our fifth starter this year. Wild. Hope he stays healthy.

Pirates: Domingo German, if only because him making an MLB roster and Trevor Bauer not making one would be the funniest thing ever. 

Rangers: It probably won't lead to anything, but Danny Duffy, who hasn't pitched since the Dodgers traded for him midway through 2021, is in camp with the Rangers. It'd be kinda cool if he finds his way back to the bigs, even if the roster's pretty crowded in Arlington right now.

Red Sox: I would absolutely love Liam Hendriks to make this team, solely because the postscript 'he was never the same after the cancer treatments' is 100% not how I wanna tell this guy's story going forward.

Royals: Austin Nola, after being cut by the Padres, needs to prove he can actually hit at the MLB level again, and I can't believe this is the bar for him. 

Twins: Randy Dobnak is still in camp with the Twins. I don't think the intention is to ever promote him again, they just like having him in the organization. And that's a good enough story in itself. I just love that he got to start a playoff game.

White Sox; Mike Moustakas might make the team solely because of the lack of backup infield options, however if the Sox wanna carry more pitchers solely because none of them are trusted, that'll be his job sorted.

We'll see how some of these turn out. There's a lot of cool stories I'd love to see play out this year. 

Repetition

 

The last time a team won the World Series two years in a row was 2000. The landscape was a lot different for the Yankees at that point: a smaller playoff pool, less relievers per roster, completely different free agency expectations, more modest conditioning for pitchers and more opportunity for roster carry-over. Since then, there have been dynasties, like the 2010s Giants, and there have been perennial great teams, like the Red Sox and Cardinals, but no team has won two in a row. In a year where the NFL is proclaiming a dynasty of its own, it seems like the MLB expectation is that whoever wins one year probably won't the following year.

And that is definitely on the minds of the Rangers during spring training camp this year. They did it, they won the franchise's first ever World Series title, and they did it with enough young players [Evan Carter, Josh Jung, Cody Bradford, the yet-to-arrive Wyatt Langford] that there still exists the possibility for more. Bruce Bochy is still in the manager's chair, the big pieces [Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Nate Eovaldi, Marcus Semien] have stuck around, there seems to be no worry for lessening returns or going back to bottom feeding. And yet...the division still isn't theirs. The Astros will perpetually be the favorites as long as the previous regime is somewhat intact, the Mariners can't be completely counted out, and the Rangers now have the pressure of not only repeating, but taking the division this time, on their shoulders.

That's why it's, at the very least, reassuring knowing going in that they'll be missing Max Scherzer, Nate Lowe and, most likely, Seager and Jung, for some time. The current infield schematic the Rangers have been going with has utilized Ezequiel Duran, who's hot enough to be a trusted starter, Jared Walsh, whose power bat seems to be returning, and Matt Duffy, who's been durable enough in several spring reps. It's not an A+ infield, even with Marcus Semien remaining intact, but it's trustworthy enough to go with for less than a month. The idea is that Seager could slide in at some point in April, and potentially Jung along the same timetable. 

The idea also exists for a Carter-Taveras-Garcia outfield, which is essentially what they went with in the playoffs last year. The other factor that must be kept in mind is Wyatt Langford. I'm not sure if he's making the majors out of camp, but the way he's hitting, and the playing time he's had, it's definitely a possibility. If they let Garcia DH a bit this year and give Langford a permanent OF position, that's definitely a winning strategy, but that only works if they're absolutely sure Langford's gonna hit the ground running. They got lucky with Evan Carter last year, and hopefully he legs it out longterm as well.

And then the rotation without Scherzer is just...Eovaldi-Heaney-Gray-Dunning-Bradford. Which isn't bad at all. Jon Gray especially has been excellent this spring, not letting any runs by so far. Eovaldi, Heaney and Bradford have also looked strong. So honestly there's enough there to not completely scare me til Scherzer eventually shows up. You also have non-roster guys like Jose Urena and Danny Duffy that could factor into things, and the potential for Jack Leiter to eventually make his way up. So I think they'll be alright for a while.

The Rangers, I think it's safe to say, will still be very good in 2024, and have enough contingency plans to stay afloat until some injured pieces return. Whether this will be enough to finally conquer the West...we'll have to see.

Keeping the Youth Tag

 

Last year, in the absence of veteran arms, the Cleveland Guardians developed an all-rookie rotation that somehow worked out better than the initial one did. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry, with occasional assistance from a healthy Shane Bieber or a visiting Lucas Giolito or Noah Syndergaard, held things down for the Tribe last year, and instilled confidence that once the veteran arms would leave, things would be alright. Though only Quantrill left in the offseason, despite a plot to deal Bieber occasionally surfacing, the Guardians' rotation options looked vast and mighty heading into the season.

So far there's only been one rotation setback, as Gavin Williams will be missing time this year, alongside some bullpen members who also got hurt. The silver lining of that is that before Williams was scratched, he was honestly looking really good, striking out 9 in 4.2 innings, and it looks to only be elbow soreness. Everybody else seems to be themselves, though Tanner Bibee's early starts have been worrying. All of Curry, Allen and Bieber have looked sharp so far. 

Most impressively, after a pair of injury-plagued seasons, Triston McKenzie's looking like his old self. So far he hasn't given up any runs, and is striking out batters like he did during his rookie year. Triston McKenzie I see as the Mike Clevinger type in this situation; he's not the youngest piece in this rotation anymore, but if he succeeds he could be the most crucial piece. He's the bridge between Bieber's vet status and Allen and Williams' greenness, and if he has a good season that's definitely something the team can build on. 

But McKenzie's strong starts do raise some questions, like...how youth-based is this rotation going to be this year? Not only will Bieber and McKenzie be back, but Carlos Carrasco, in camp on a NRI contract, has an outside chance of making the team. It's not...a 100% guarantee, especially considering that it's a 7 man race for 5 spots at the moment, but there is a chance that Stephen Vogt goes with a veteran emphasis rather than leading with Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Xzavion Curry right off the bat. It's not exactly unheard of for Curry to start in the 'pen, do long-man work and eventually work his way up to starting. And while Allen [and Williams] has been excellent out of camp, you never know if that'll be the deciding factor for Vogt to start the year. There's also Ben Lively kicking around after his decent 2023 numbers with Cincinnati, and while he's a long shot for the rotation, like Carrasco he's not exactly out of the race. 

So now the Guardians have to figure out what tactic they want to go with, or with lining the kids up behind Bieber is still a winning tactic. I think they should be fine this year if they let the kids play, especially considering they'll be getting Williams back eventually, but there's more factors at play than you might think given last year's success.

Still, I expect Cleveland to do better this year, and possibly contend. I do expect the Twins and Tigers to be tough to manage down the stretch, and it's not exactly a certainty as it has been in the past. But hey, this is the exact kind of Guardians team that could overperform. 

Re-Sale Value

 

It has become all too familiar to hear of a pitcher that wowed the league by throwing hard and striking everyone out that, after his peak, cannot for the life of him stay healthy. Just this season we've had Lucas Giolito potentially be out for the season with whatever screwed up his arm in the second half of 2023, Kodai Senga potentially missing a ton of time after pitching beautifully last year, and Carlos Rodon continuing to worry Yankee fans by not quite reaching his fastball velocity. Pitchers are blowing their arms out at an accelerated rate and everyone's acting like it's not a problem. It is. I don't think it's possible for a starting pitcher to have a 20 year career anymore because now it's more like a 15 year career with 4 of those years being injury-prone half seasons. 

And so here we are. Chris Sale has one year with the Braves to prove himself. At one point he was a surefire future Hall of Famer. Then in 2019 his arm got fatigued, he had a ton of arm surgeries and hasn't stayed healthy since. Does he have anything left?

I think about some of the other guys who've turned out like this. Corey Kluber famously struggled with injuries after his peak, and recently called it quits. Luis Severino had an excellent start but he's more careful than he's ever been now. James Paxton only showed up in Boston for a portion of his two year deal, but the stuff that appeared was excellent. And similarly, Sale's 2023 material was pretty solid, striking out 125 in 100 innings. But, ultimately, he got injured and was out in most of the second half. 

I find it very funny that Sale is using a Spring Training stint to prove he's got it, because that's exactly what he was up to last year. I saw him start a game last spring, he looked pretty damn good actually, could still strike people out. But we don't know at what point Sale's arm is gonna tell him to stop. He's actually looked even better this spring, proving that the Braves knew something in snatching him for some small pieces. 

People, at the time of the deal, called Sale a killswitch piece for the Braves, as he provided back rotation security behind Morton, Fried, Elder and Strider. But not only is Sale something of an injury liability, you have to think about Morton, who is 40, and Fried, who fought injuries through most of last season. And then you have to think about the next Chris Sale; Spencer Strider started 32 games last season, won 20 of them and struck out a league-leading 281. He will be 25 this season, and the hope is that he's able to replicate this without getting injured. But is this too much to ask, even for someone as talented as Strider? 

I mean, if nobody gets injured, this rotation could bring them to October. But that's a big if, especially in 2024-era MLB, where everyone has to throw hard. Hell, the Braves have already seen two organizational phenom pitchers, Michael Soroka and Ian Anderson, completely lose their footing due to throwing out their arms. And that's the plan they seem to be going with for this year, just have everybody keep throwing really hard and hope it works. There needs to be some sort of whistleblowing thing that proves to clubs that this isn't a sustainable practice, though I doubt that'd even happen.

For now, we just have to hope that Chris Sale can have a solid comeback season without getting injured yet again. Though if the uniforms stay this troublesome, maybe he'll want to miss time...

In Praise of 'The Fun Player'

 

This will be Joc Pederson's tenth season in the major leagues. Kinda hard to believe.

After having a stellar rookie season and becoming well-known as a home run hitter in LA, Pederson has mellowed into a fairly solid mid-lineup power hitter. What's more, Pederson seems to be filling the role previously occupied by Hunter Pence in the Giants' lineup as 'the fun guy'. Which, in my opinion, every team needs.

Baseball, in general, is too serious and too simple for my liking. Too many players just come at the game with this stone faced resolve, and say the same 'well we're just gonna do what we're gonna do' things when the press talks to them, and we don't get enough of an eye into how their personality works or how much they actually enjoy the game. At the end of the day, baseball's a kid's game, it's a game people play with their friends, and so if you're a grown-ass man and you get to play baseball, the fun should show a little bit. As much as I love people like Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani and Nolan Arenado, you don't get a lot from them other than stock seriousness and determination.

Joc Pederson shows up with like a dyed blonde mohawk and says 'let's play', and I think that's a lot more interesting. And that's before you even go into detail about his work with people with disabilities, his run on the Israeli team, his fantasy football hijinks, any of that. Plus, he just seems like one of those guys who has fun, who loves the fans and who can be a true hero like that. Pence was awesome at that, and I think Pederson's a worthy successor.

For my money, the crown prince of 'fun player' archetypes is Joey Votto, and you wouldn't think it just from how dry he is a lot of the time. Votto has a TikTok presence [or will until that gets taken down due to questionable reasonings], he'll go around talking to fans during games, his press conferences are always fun, he thanks fans for coming to games, and he just exudes charisma and personality. The Reds fans already had a guy like that with Sean Casey, who they literally referred to as The Mayor, and for them to have a guy like Votto who's arguably more important, and a much better player, has to be awesome. Votto's a Hall of Famer, there's a chance this could be his last season, and he's still having fun and being himself. 

And now we have people inheriting the game that seem more intent on bringing the fun back, like Julio Rodriguez, whose desire to keep the game enjoyable has made him the cover boy for the game in the span of a year, and Hunter Greene, who's been keen to play up the novelty of throwing 100+ miles all the time while being a tangible, approachable sports figure. We now have Anthony Volpe, who looks to be a bit more of a Spider-Man esque MLB figure as the young kid who grew up a Yankee fan now joining the team. So at least this mentality is growing, but it's mostly younger players who haven't found their full focus and groove yet.

I really hope this trend stays alive, because this, rather than changing rules, is the key to keeping people invested in baseball. If fans have fun characters to root for and fun things happening, they'll watch more.

THEY Made The Opening Day Roster?

 

Despite some strong starts during the last half of the 2022 season, Hayden Wesneski was a long shot to make the Cubs' 2023 Opening Day roster. As promising of a prospect that he was, he was going against not only trusted MLB options like Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and Jameson Taillon, but in-team options like Adrian Sampson, Keegan Thompson and Justin Steele, and lower-rotation guys like Javier Assad and Adbert Alzolay. But Wesneski had an INCREDIBLE spring, and thanks to Hendricks getting injured and Sampson and Alzolay struggling, was handed a crucial spot in the 5-man rotation, alongside Stroman, Taillon, Smyly and Steele. 

Wesneski was the kind of underdog that you wanted to succeed, and the kind of young player that deserves opportunities like this. Thankfully, Wesneski is one of many guys like that who are succeeding out of camp and making the majors. As per a lot of these spring training posts, let's go down and cover all 30 teams and pick one player that I'm glad is making the Opening Day roster. 

Angels: Logan O'Hoppe, the catching prospect who came over from Philly for Brandon Marsh, who's looking like he'll be backing up Max Stassi, and therefore potentially taking the position if he's good enough, this season. For O'Hoppe to make the team and people like Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak and Andrew Velasquez to NOT make the team is pretty huge, and means they're seeing good things from O'Hoppe.

Astros: Hunter Brown, who will be the Astros' fifth starter off the bat, as Lance McCullers will once again begin the season on the IL. Brown will have big shoes to fill, in a year without Justin Verlander, but he's been efficient enough in spring competition. 

Athletics: Freddy Tarnok, who was sent over in the Sean Murphy trade and looks to be making the A's as a reliever. Seeing as Kyle Muller is getting the Opening Day start, Tarnok making the team is a good sign for how much room they have for prospects.

Blue Jays: Not a lot of truly out of the ordinary choices, so by default, Chad Green, who's finally suiting up for a team that isn't the Yankees.

Braves: TIE between Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster, two guys who made the rotation over Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson. I could have gone with Hoy Park, who made it over Vaughn Grissom or Braden Shewmake, but Dodd and Shuster I actually understand the promise of.

Brewers: Gus Varland, a longtime minor leaguer who's bounced around for a few years and is FINALLY making the majors this year after becoming a character as a spring training reliever. Could have gone with Brice Turang, but him making the team I could have guessed.

Cardinals: In lieu of Jordan Walker, I'm going with Taylor Motter, the longtime backup infielder who impressed enough to make Opening Day, something I did not think he was still capable of. 

Cubs: Wesneski, see above.

Diamondbacks: Nobody really, though I'll say Drey Jameson because I figured that if Ryne Nelson won the 5th slot then Jameson wouldn't make it himself, but there they both are.

Dodgers: James Outman, one of the few Opening Day rookies that might be overshadowed by some of the other ones. The Dodgers are starting Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson in the outfield this year, might also use David Peralta and Jason Heyward for starts, and are clearly lacking in respected outfield pop that isn't Mookie Betts. Outman being a young outfield guy will certainly help things along, especially if he's ready.

Giants: When I did the research for this post, the Giants roster was still a bit fatty, so I'll just assume Sean Hjelle made the team out of camp and wonder aloud how odd it is that a 6'11 starter might get some reps with the Giants this year. [EDIT, 4/30: The Giants were, in fact, not ready for this Hjelle].

Guardians: Roman Quinn, who will likely make the team after having one of the best offensive springs of his lifetime. Dude hit 4 homers this spring, he's only hit as many as 4 homers IN A SEASON. 

Mariners: The whole roster is pretty sensible at the moment, so how about Jack Larsen, the backup-to-the-backup outfielder who's mostly being used for his defense. Really the only eyebrow-raiser we have here.

Marlins: N/A, they're all too sensible.

Mets: Tommy Pham, who gets like a third or fourth chance since leaving his peak while Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez all have to sit in Syracuse and wait for roster space. You can play the 'but they're not ready yet' game but a lot of people in this post, like Walker, Henderson and Outman, are proving that the only people talking about readiness are really concerned about player control.

Nationals: N/A

Orioles: I suppose Gunnar Henderson, considering that, as evidenced by Grayson Rodriguez not making Opening Day, even the biggest rookies may not have been guaranteed. Henderson's gonna be the starting 3rd baseman this year, and it's well-deserved.

Padres: Another one where the deepest roster cuts hadn't been made as I prepped this. I'd really like it for Jay Groome to somehow squeak onto the roster, after years of being as top prospect for Boston, as well as being a local hero for me. [UPDATE 4 HOURS LATER] Well, so much for that. There's not really any stretches left after Groome, so I guess they're an N/A too.

Phillies: Darick Hall was probably thinking he'd start the year in the minors, then Rhys Hoskins got hurt and all of the sudden he's the starting 1st baseman for the defending NL champs. I sincerely hope he has a decent enough year.

Pirates: Guys, Rich Hill is 43 and he's a prized starter for the Pirates. What the hell is going on? I love this!

Rangers: It is looking very likely that Yoshi Tsustugo might make this team, and that'd be really cool, because after he flamed out with the Rays I thought he was cooked, and he's kinda become an unsung favorite wherever he's played. 

Rays: Christian Bethancourt might actually be the starting catcher for the Rays this year. Some people can call that an inspiring comeback story, I still file it away with the other 'the Rays are too cheap' stuff. Bethancourt returned from MLB obscurity with the A's and now gets to start for the Rays, so that is kinda cool.

Red Sox: Brayan Bello making the roster isn't surprising, but him being a major candidate to start games is surprising to me. Just proves how much the Sox have lost in the last few years.

Reds: The bad news is that Michael Siani and Elly de la Cruz were both cut so the Reds can eventually control them for a little longer. The good news is that at least Spencer Steer is here, and looking to start the year at third. He's a decent prospect, maybe a full year will illuminate his promise.

Rockies: Tulo, then Story, then a year of Iglesias, then, as it's looking, Ezequiel Tovar, who looks to start at shortstop this year for the Rox after getting a 9-game preview last year. Tovar has a lot of promise following him, and he does look sharp after a nice spring, with 14 hits in 18 games, so this guy might end up being THE guy going forward, which, no disrespect to Brendan Rodgers, would be very helpful.

Royals: Aroldis Chapman's beard. Look, in the last 7 years I'd forgotten he could grow one, man.

Tigers: Ryan Kreidler, a rookie who struggled offensively in 28 games last year yet has been handed the starting third base job this year. Of the rosters I looked up for this post, the Tigers' roster was the sparsest, and it seems to be Kreidler or bust, which is a bold strategy.

Twins: N/A, even Gallo I could have guessed

White Sox: Romy Gonzalez will be starting at 2nd base instead of Leury Garcia. That may be one of the biggest shockers of the spring.

Yankees: As much as I wanna say Volpe, through everything I saw from him this spring, I had a feeling. So I'll say this: the Yankees are going in with one rotation spot empty. One would assume, alongside Cole, Cortes, German and Schmidt, that they'd just give it to Michael King, who'd started games before. But as I write this post, it is looking like they will be bringing Jhony Brito with them to the Bronx after 5 perfect innings this weekend. Volpe starting in the majors seems like a foregone conclusion compared to Brito, even if he was looking pretty ready with Scranton last year. I'm still not sure if he's officially in, but if yesterday's anything to go by, what a surprise he could be.

I may update this as more cuts happen, but this alone is a pretty wild picture.

2023 in Former Rookies of the Year

 
It's odd to look back at the Rookie of the Year winners from the 2000s and see how much of a crapshoot this thing used to be. I mean, I'm sure there'll be different assessments in about 10 more years, but just seeing how many ROY winners flamed out after 5 years or less, like Angel Berroa, Jason Jennings, Andrew Bailey, Chris Coghlan, Bobby Crosby and, let's be honest with ourselves, Jason Bay. 

You look at the ones from the 2010s and it's mostly predicted the stars of today- all of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, Shohei Ohtani, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez remain the biggest stars in the game. By 2013, 15 of the 20 ROY winners of the previous decade were still in the league, and six of those guys were still among the biggest stars of the game [Ichiro, Pujols, Pedroia, Verlander, Hanley Ramirez and Evan Longoria]. The rest were scrubs.

By comparison, 16 of the 20 from the 2010s are still in the league, and 13 of those guys are still considered huge stars, and are being used in big roles going into camp this year. If Buster Posey hadn't retired, he'd be a figure in this as well. 

Just for fun, I'll go down the list of the active Rookie of the Year winners, and see how they're doing going into the start of the season in a week.

Justin Verlander, 2006: Heh, funny how it drops a bit when Pujols finally retires. Verlander, even for a 40-year-old, is looking at another huge season, in a top role in the Mets' rotation to begin the year. Verlander and Scherzer are gonna be an epic duo that, despite their ages, look to strike the hell out of opposing offenses for as long as they can. No current sign of slipping, though his age and durability are both worries.

Evan Longoria, 2008. Longoria has been in the league for 15 years now and is only now donning his third uniform, fittingly the team that came into the league at the same time as his beloved Rays. The Diamondbacks are planning to use Longo as a starting third baseman and potential DH option. Longo has missed parts of the last few seasons with the Giants, though, to his credit, he's been excellent whenever he's been active. I don't think his star is as high as it was when he came to San Francisco, but he's still had a hell of a career, and the D-Backs might get a bit of pep from his counsel. 

Craig Kimbrel, 2011. Kimbrel's Rod Beck comparisons are back. He's become a journeyman type closer, showing up somewhere and getting 30 or so saves while not being as lights-out as he used to be. This year he's in Philly, and he's not guaranteed the ninth due to Gregory Soto being an even better closing option. He might need to be the setup man, and judging by late 2021, he's not the best at doing that either. 

Bryce Harper, 2012. Hurt, likely to come back by June or July, but still beloved and still regarded as one of the best in the league. 

Mike Trout, 2012. Despite recent injuries and a few Griffey comparisons, still undeniably one of baseball's biggest stars, and priming himself for another huge season in LA after a great WBC run.

Wil Myers, 2013. I think that, while Myers' ability to be one of the biggest stars in the game extinguished in about 2016, he's been a solid enough hitter ever since. He's passed his peak, and the Reds knew that when they picked him up, but he's probably gonna make the team and he'll aid them as an inoffensive power bat. 

Jacob deGrom, 2014. A change of teams, and a slight increase of ERA, are his biggest obstacles going into 2023, but he's still considered one of the best pitchers in the game, has won multiple Cy Young awards, and looks to make the Rangers a contender again.

Jose Abreu, 2014. I've talked up Abreu as an underrated HOF contender, solely because of how consistent his offensive production has been ever since coming into the league. I fear now that he's just passing his peak years, and though the Astros have given him a nice paycheck, I don't know if he'll deliver for them as well as he did for Chicago.

Kris Bryant, 2015. Still one of the biggest names in the game despite missing most of last season. Pretty much everyone is convinced he's due for a comeback with the Rockies, I am hoping they are right.

Carlos Correa, 2015. Though no one is quite certain what medical issue ended up ruining his deals with the Giants and Mets, he's at least back in an organization he knows, he's coming off a strong season, and he's looking to stay relevant despite the Twins not being as sure of a bet as, well, the Mets. I think he's still one of the stars of the game, but he's in danger of blowing it.

Corey Seager, 2016. Yeah, last season made it clear that Corey Seager is still a five-tool player even if he's no longer a member of the Dodgers. With a fuller Rangers roster he looks to make even more of a statement and add to his trophy case even more.

Michael Fulmer, 2016. Yes, clearly Fulmer didn't pan out the way the Tigers wanted, which is a rarity considering who surrounds him on this post, but he's reinvented himself as a reliever. In all of his spring appearances with the Cubs he's gone scoreless, so they're at least excited about that. I don't think he's ever gonna be as big of a deal as he was in 2016 and 2017, though.

Aaron Judge, 2017. Well, of course he's doing well, and he's a hell of a lot richer, too. 

Cody Bellinger, 2017. The last two seasons have put him on the border of stardom and obscurity, and it really hinges on whether he can do anything for the Cubs this year. I think he's honestly cooked himself, and might have peaked in 2019, much like his MVP rival Christian Yelich.

Shohei Ohtani, 2018. Duh.

Ronald Acuna Jr., 2018. Still one of the big stars of the game, yes, but he's missed a bit too much time due to injuries, and he needs this season to prove his staying power, and that he can still perform with the big boys even in a more crowded Braves lineup. 

Yordan Alvarez, 2019. I'd say he's still a big star, though maybe not as big as some other people in this post. If he's able to keep his home run numbers up and stay healthy, his star will rise. If not, he'll be another symbol of the Astros' championship runs.

Pete Alonso, 2019. Yeah, I'm pretty confident that he's still a marquee guy even if he's not quite hitting as many as he did in 2019. Alonso is still one of the biggest stars on the Mets, and will be relied upon a great deal as the stakes get even higher for them.

Kyle Lewis, 2020. The injuries have really lessened Lewis' appeal, which is why he's starting this season as a backup outfielder for the Diamondbacks. I don't wanna believe he's washed himself up this quickly, but I'm very worried that if the 2020 season had been full, he wouldn't have won the award. 

Devin Williams, 2020. As mad as I was that Williams won this award for a month of service, he's become a very strong reliever and closer, and one of the most reliable members of the Brewers. Maybe not a huge star, but it could turn out that way if he stays this excellent.

Randy Arozarena, 2021. His 2020 and 2021 were great. His 2022 was a lot more human. Is it a sophomore slump, or indicative of future trends. With the Rays expected to underperform this year, many eyes will be on Arozarena to see if he really is for real, or if Wander Franco should have gotten that ROY instead.

Jonathan India, 2021. After getting injured very early in the season, India turned in a merely passable sophomore year in a depleted Cincinnati infield. The pressure may be on him a lot more with even less stars in the Reds' lineup, and I worry he may not exceed expectations.

Julio Rodriguez, 2022. Looking extremely good.

Michael Harris II, 2022. As excellent as Harris was in 2022, and as confident as the Braves are in his abilities, I am not sold yet on Harris' long term appeal, and will need a similar year to last year to really convince me that he's for real. With, again, A LOT OF BRAVES looking to impress this year, Harris will either stand out immediately or get lost in the shuffle. 

And that's where we're at. A lot of these guys still look really good in 2023, and, funnily enough, some of the early 2020s ones have already not aged very well. 

2023 in Youth Movements

 

As I mentioned last year, the new CBA made it a little harder for teams to directly tank and throw in the towel, and we only had like 2 or 3 teams [the Nats, A's and Reds] that decided outright that they weren't gonna win games in 2022, and one of those decided basically midway through the year. 

Now, going into 2023, looking at the field, I can't really name many teams that made zero effort to build for the season.  The Cubs, who stayed back and tried replacement players for a few years, signed some of the biggest free agents of the season, the A's netted a number of useful, if not starry, free agents in Aledmys Diaz, Jace Peterson and Shintaro Fujinami, and the Pirates, at the very least, brought back Andrew McCutchen.

I think that what the ease-off of tanking is making teams do is be less liberal with bringing in their prospects and letting them repopulate the team. In the wake of what a lot of the truly competitive teams have been doing, I should stress that it's mostly the rebuilding teams that are giving positions to rookies to start the season [Vaughn Grissom and Anthony Volpe shouldn't be starting the season in the minors, even if we don't know about Volpe yet]. 

The Royals, especially as 2022 ended, were definitely ready to give big roles to some of their rookies and younger players. Right now there's like 5 positions looking to go to rookies or second-years. There's still the long-gestating catching battle between M.J. Melendez and Salvador Perez, which the team is trying to resolve by playing Perez at DH and Melendez at left field. But now we have Michael Massey and Nate Eaton, both of whom came up midway through the year, looking at starting positions. Massey has had a scorching spring, is hitting pretty well so far and looks to be a solid DP combo with Nicky Lopez. Eaton has a shot at a starting outfield spot due to the injury to Drew Waters, who also had a shot at a starting spot, and will likely leapfrog Kyle Isbel over time. And then you also have Vinnie Pasquantino, who's a shoo-in at 1st or DH. 

I think the Royals really banking on these younger, lower-budget players is gonna make them a sleeper favorite in the AL Central. I mean, not only are they doing their usual dominating in Spring Training play, but the Royals have less contracts holding them back, less people that might leave in July, and less unsinkable type guys that could let them down. Bobby Witt is primed for a strong sophomore season, they're projecting great things from Brady Singer, and this could be at the very least a promising third place team that outdoes expectations.

The Nationals, similarly, are going with a lot of recent trade returns for starring roles, including C.J. Abrams, who they intend to start at shortstop this season, and MacKenzie Gore, who is now fourth in line for starters on the depth chart thanks to Strasburg and Cavali doing their thing. The Nats are at the point now where several of their big roster pieces, including Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and Riley Adams, are returns from the deals that sent some of their biggest pieces, such as Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and Brad Hand, to competitors. 

And the interesting thing that sets them apart from the Royals is that now that they trust people like Thomas, Ruiz, Gray and Joey Meneses [mostly], they're beginning to supplant with cheap free agents, and getting Dom Smith, Jeimer Candelario, Trevor Williams and Corey Dickerson to fill crucial roles in the roster. Some of these guys are replacement level, there's the hope that Smith will spring into action now that he's actually on a team that has a role for him, but he's still Dom Smith. At the same time, the Nats do have some new mega-prospects, like James Wood, Robert Hassell and Elijah Green, but, with the exception of Hassell, they all seem to be a few years away. There are no huge prospects coming up immediately, like a lot of other rebuilding teams [O's, A's, etc]. 

I think the Nats might be a few more years away from really competing, but they do seem to be putting a little bit of effort here just on the basis of the people they've used to ensure they have competent choices at most positions. It's not a full tanking mentality, though it is close. 

The Royals probably have the better chance of these two teams, though who knows which players will catch fire and which won't.

Japan's Victory Lap

 

Very fitting that the year Japan takes down the US in WBC play, it also happens to be a big year for Japanese players in the US.

I mean, there have been more monumental years for Japanese exports, like the initial buzz of Hideo Nomo in LA, or the exaltation of the Yankees getting Hideki Matsui, or the gambit of the Red Sox nabbing Daisuke Matsuzaka and then winning a World Series with him, or even the Rangers being the ones to take Yu Darvish. But 2023 has three relatively big Japanese ballplayers touching down on American soil to begin the year, and in an era where Shohei Ohtani is one of the faces of baseball, it's an earned victory lap.

The Mets probably made the most waves signing Kodai Senga, especially considering that it came in the same offseason as their signing of Justin Verlander. Even with Jose Quintana hurt, their rotation is still looking like Scherzer-Verlander-Senga-David Peterson-Carlos Carrasco. Even with Carrasco being an older liability, that's still a strong matchup, especially with Peterson looking insanely good over his spring starts. 

While Verlander and Scherzer are sure to be the crowd-pleasers, Senga does look like an interesting case behind them. In 11 seasons with the Softbank Hawks, Senga sported a 2.42 ERA, a 104-51 record, 1486 strikeouts and a 1.096 WHIP. Those are some pretty solid numbers, even if the seasons are shorter in Japan. There is ultimately the worry of the initial adjustment to throwing stateside, as virtually every Japanese pitcher has had a year of surgeries after trying to adapt to MLB hitting, but the hope is that the Mets at least get some prime years out of him before this, and 2023 would be a nice season for Senga's a-material to aid the Mets.

At the other end of the spectrum is Shintaro Fujinami, who's notably struggled more often in his 10 seasons with the Hanshin Tigers. The 28-year old still has a 3.17 ERA and 80 wins, but a career 1.322 WHIP is a bit scarier to people. Fujinami is also suiting up for the Oakland Athletics, a team with direr needs and sparser run support. At the very least, Fujinami is 3-0 in his 4 spring training starts, and has 17 strikeouts...but he's also walked 13 people and given up 6 earned runs. He is a premeditated risk that could, in theory, pay off for the A's. 

And then, of course, you have Masataka Yoshida for the Red Sox. The dude was on full display during the WBC, people know how useful someone like him is even for a mid-tier team like Boston. In 7 seasons with the Orix Buffalos he has a .327 average, 133 home runs, 900 hits and 474 RBIs. Not bad at all, and close to the production of someone like Benintendi or Devers. In a team that's let so many homegrown contact hitters go, Yoshida is the closest thing to a compromise, a contact-hitting export that has cut out the 'coming to prominence' part of his journey and is right at his peak as the Red Sox need him.

I honestly think Yoshida's gonna have the best season of these three, just on the basis of his WBC production and his career to this point, but Senga could surprise me. I haven't counted out Fujinami either, he could be a tricky aspect of an already-interesting AL West.

A Word on Second-Generationers

 

We're...we're really at a larger peak of sons of MLB players right now than we were in 1989, when Ken Griffey Jr., Moises Alou and Barry Bonds were running around. How insane is that?

I think this new wave of second generation major leaguers was most evident during the draft last year, when Baltimore's choice for the top 2 picks were between Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday, and Druw Jones, son of Andruw Jones. Either way, a second-generationer is going first, and so soon after Jack Leiter as well. We are really well in this, and it only seldom occurs to people.

Hell, prepping a custom post today I realized the next two I had ready were Cal Quantrill and Ke'Bryan Hayes, whose dads probably squared off at some point in the 90s. 

All this at the point where Hollywood is having a nepotism crisis, saying that people are succeeding because they have famous parents, all while one of the few *good* nepo babies, Jamie Lee Curtis, just won an Oscar. In the MLB it's different because we've obviously seen people be prized because of their name basis but struggle while making their own luck, like Tony Gwynn Jr., Tony Armas Jr., Josh Barfield, Eric Young Jr, etc. The second-generationers that become huge, like your Ken Griffey Jr's, your Fernando Tatis Jr's, your Vladimir Guerrero Jr's, they only bring so much from their father and they come into their own as different, intriguing players themselves. 

As is custom for a lot of Spring Training posts, I went through the rosters and tried to find a second-generationer for each team. Let's see how well I did.

Astros: Lance McCullers Jr., he of the tipped pitches and April injuries. 

Blue Jays: Your 2019 big three, Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio. Bo and Vlad have done a nice job outrunning the legends of their fathers, Biggio has struggled. There is now the addition of Daulton Varsho, whose dad Gary played for a bit.

Braves: Just Ronnie Acuna

Cubs: Just Cody Bellinger. He's at the very least eclipsed his dad's MLB work, but man is he in danger of losing his late-2010s clout..

Diamondbacks: I learned very recently that Buddy Kennedy is Don Money's grandson, which is honestly pretty cool. Way too soon to say if he eclipses that benchmark, though.

Dodgers: Does Trayce Thompson count if his brother's in the NBA? Probably not but it's definitely important.

Giants: Little known fact, Mike Yastrzemski's dad was drafted by the Braves, and played a few years for Durham and Birmingham. Even without the Carl factor he'd be a second-generationer by proxy, though having your grandfather be a Sox hero is a plus. Also, Joc Pederson's dad had a cup of coffee with the Dodgers.

Guardians: Plesac and Quantrill, though Plesac's uncle was the reliever, not his dad.

Padres: Tatis, but also Ryan Weathers, whose dad was a reliever in the 90s and 00s. 

Phillies: Most notably Kody Clemens, who is amusingly a decent pitching option despite probably not being credited as a two-way player [thanks a bil, Manfred]. 

Pirates: Just Ke'Bryan Hayes, but that's still a pretty awesome second-generationer

Red Sox: I keep forgetting Adalberto Mondesi is with the Sox now. Like I saw some BP at Fenway South and was surprised that Mondi was there. That's how low-key that trade was.

Rockies: C.J. Cron's dad famously had a few cups of coffee in the 90s. 

Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., of course, and he's looking like he's here to stay. 

Twins: Similar to Thompson, does it count if Jose Miranda's related to Lin-Manuel Miranda? If not, you've got Nick Gordon, son of Tom.

So that is 15/30 with second-generationers in the bigs that I know about, though there are probably a bunch I'm not aware of. That is a great deal, though a lot less than I figured. With all the prospects waiting to jump in, that number's probably gonna grow in the next few years anyhow.