Held Together With Scotch Tape

 

So. We have arrived at a version of the 2025 Orioles that features all of Kyle Bradish, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Cade Povich and Albert Suarez, active and in good health.. Though, granted, we had to lose Felix Bautista, Zach Eflin, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Tyler O'Neill and Brandon Young to get there.

Look, if the Orioles had any sense of injury luck this would be a different story. They've had so many great pieces having great performances, but none of them lined up together. There have been very few constants this season. Dean Kremer, of all people, has been one of them, making 26 starts and posting a 4.52 ERA, 128 Ks and a 9-10 record. With the rotten luck that this team has had, Kremer has been a perfectly acceptable baseline arm, and has provided stability where it hasn't completely existed. Yes, Trevor Rogers has had the more traditional standout season, but that came after a month or so of injury. To be fair, a 5 WAR, an 8-2 record and a 1.39 ERA is nothing to sneeze at, and I really hope Rogers is this useful in a season where the team is actually good. Because Kyle Bradish is proving that the capability to exceed is there, it's just difficult when Rodriguez and Eflin aren't around and you have to wear out Brandon Young and Cade Povich waiting for them.

What has been nice, though, is seeing the emergence of even more young O's that hopefully aren't being rushed. Dylan Beavers has been up, and seems pretty ready for prime time, hitting .333 with 16 hits and 6 RBIs in 15 games. Samuel Basallo, a rare young Oriole that gets extended, has shown early promise, with 8 RBIs in 13 games. Jeremiah Jackson came up around the deadline and has been an underrated low-lineup presence, hitting .337 with 15 RBIs and 3 homers in 27 games. With Henderson, Cowser, Mountcastle and Holliday acting as a core, and with the hope of Rutschman, O'Neill and Westburg back and healthier next year, you can see a much better team forming, and a much more hopeful future arriving soon.

I hate to say it, but I think a year like this was necessary to keep the Orioles from getting too all-in on their own BS. They needed a taste of 'all of this can go wrong and you won't be able to stay in it', and that'll help if something like this happens again. Now that the team is willing to keep its prospects, and now that there's a possibility that Rutschman might be better off as trade bait, you can see a path forward, and a way back to competition. 

Coming Tomorrow- He got off the IL and went right into a hitting streak. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Orioles

 

For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Orioles had an incredible regular season effort, with several stars and integral players, and yet couldn't turn it into anything in the playoffs. Being lapped by the Royals, who had a worse record but better September momentum, may have been the painful loss the Orioles needed to truly improve. Like, if you're not getting production from Adley Rutschman during the second half, you're not gonna get anywhere. That's one of your crucial pieces, and he's just not gonna do anything for you.

Jorge Mateo's 2024 was one of the most indicative seasons on the team, because he first lost a position to Jackson Holliday, then...outplayed Holliday, and was off to a blistering May, with 13 steals, 44 hits and 18 RBIs in 68 games. Then he gets hurt, is out for the season, and now the team is without a set plan at 2nd again. Urias, Holliday and Coby Mayo tried to make it up, to no avail.

2025 Prediction: The thing is, with Holliday, Mayo and Westburg all here, Mateo doesn't have much to do in Baltimore. I think he'll have some cool moments as a bench piece, but I wouldn't be shocked if the O's trade him.

Similarly, Ramon Urias also found himself sort of obsolete on a team with young, talented middle infielders. He did the majority of the filling-in at 2nd after Mateo's injury, and I would call his season fine. He ended with a 1.5 WAR, a .254 average, 11 homers and 37 RBIs. When you have Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg on this team, that's not gonna cut it.

2025 Prediction: I actually think he's gonna hit a second wind next year. Age-30 season, last opportunity to prove himself? Yeah, he chases 25 homers.

Dean Kremer, like Urias, has been an auxiliary member of these Orioles teams left over from the old regime, and because the main attractions tend to get hurt easily on this team, Kremer's gotten a lot of playing time over the last few years. Kremer stays healthy and stays relatively consistent, and that's really the bar right now. In 24 starts, Kremer went 8-10 with a 4.10 ERA with 123 strikeouts. Not bad, and for a guy picking up slack from the true aces, certainly useful.

2025 Prediction: Burnes will be gone, Means will be gone, and who knows how much Trevor Rogers we'll get. Kremer will likely make the rotation Opening Day, though I'm not sure if he'll still be there by September.

Going into this season it was clear that Felix Bautista would be off the table, and the strong bullpen of 2023 would need to step up in his absence. That means breakout Yennier Cano, who made an All-Star team by being practically unhittable during the first half of 2023. Cano's 2024 was, understandably, a step down from the previous year, but he was the anchor of the bullpen and was rather trustworthy. Cano finished the season with a 3.15 ERA and 5 saves in 70 appearances.

2025 Prediction: I think he'll have some truly great stretches considering that the pressure will be off a little with Bautista returning and Dominguez in a similar role.

When the Orioles signed Craig Kimbrel, especially knowing how rough he was during the home stretch of the 2023 season, they knew the risks. Kimbrel, in this stage, has become as famous for blown saves as he is for the moments he locks it in. And thus, the numerous games that the Orioles seemed to have a lock on only for Kimbrel to let men on and wreck things...were ultimately their fault in a sense. This was Kimbrel's roughest year in a while, as he had a 5.33 ERA, his highest since 2019, a 23-6 record in terms of saves, and a -1.1 WAR. Kimbrel didn't make it to September, the O's went with Dominguez, and thus that aspect wasn't an issue. 

2025 Prediction: Well whatever he does, it has to be a step up from this year, right? I think somebody will still give him a chance, maybe not as closer immediately, but he surely has gotten things under control, I hope.

Kyle Bradish and John Means began the year near the top of the Orioles' depth chart, and combined they made 12 starts. Bradish's injury was downplayed but he didn't join the team til May. In 8 starts, he went 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 53 Ks, definitely par for the course. But that worsened his UCL, and thus he needed Tommy John surgery, meaning he'll be out for the majority of 2025. Means, meanwhile, rejoined the team in May as well, and made 4 starts, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 16 Ks...then HE landed on the IL, and needed Tommy John surgery, his second. So in case you're wondering why the Orioles felt the need to trade two excellent players to Miami for Trevor Rogers, that's why.

2025 Prediction: Bradish will actually be useful to Baltimore once he's activated in mid-August, and help them towards the postseason. Means will sign a contract with Boston or somebody, and probably won't appear til after it's too late.

It's hard to be underrated on a team with so many great homegrown players, but Heston Kjerstad has remained an under-the-radar utility OF guy. He's yet to really find a permanent role on this team, but he's useful as a backup. Kjerstad, in 39 games, hit .253 with 14 RBIs and 4 homers, and was very useful as this team headed to the finish line.

2025 Prediction: Okay, so Santander will likely be gone, which means there will be an opening in the outfield. Either the O's go with Kjerstad and he finally breaks out, or the O's go with a contract and Kjerstad remains an endearing bench bat.

The reason I'm so skeptical about the O's giving Kjerstad a shot is that despite not especially needing him, the team still traded for Eloy Jimenez last year. They were fine at DH thanks to Ryan O'Hearn, and fine in the outfield, but they felt they needed one more solid bat, and Jimenez fit the bill. Jimenez didn't have a TON of truly terrific moments as an Oriole, as he hit .232 in 33 games, with 7 RBIs and only 1 home run, but the fans seemed to like him. 

2025 Prediction: A replacement level season with a bottom-feeder.

And after Jordan Westburg's injury, the Orioles took a flyer on Emmanuel Rivera, who wasn't really cutting it with the Marlins. Rivera actually had a solid second half with the O's, hitting .313 with 14 RBIs and 4 homers. His defense isn't great, but he can still contact hit, and was one of the team's best September performers. 

2025 Prediction: Between Westburg, Coby Mayo and Urias, it's gonna be hard for Rivera to find much of a place in this team, so I say he winds up somewhere else in a similar role.

Coming Tomorrow- I'm honestly shocked at how few Padres I have left for this month, but that's a testament to how many great players I already customized from there.

O-vation

 

The Baltimore Orioles are in position to potentially win 100 games this year.

I mean, it's not definite, but there's 21 games left to be played, they'd need to go at least 13-8 to reach 100, and they've been 13-4 since mid-August [I wrote this before the Angels game last night], they've done a great job of keeping the momentum strong, and they've shown few signs of slipping despite losing Felix Bautista. It could happen. And it's something that hasn't happened since 1980, a year where nobody currently playing on the Orioles was even born yet. Funnily enough, they've lost 100 games 4 times in that period.

That is odd to me, by the way, that it's been 40+ years since the O's have won 100 games. I'd thought won of the late 90s teams could, or maybe one of the mid-10s teams could, but not the case. That also means that Cal Ripken went his entire career without being on an O's team that won 100 games. Yet Earl Weaver managed five.

The Orioles have come this far in 2022 thanks to the smooth development of their youth pieces. Gunnar Henderson had a slow April, but came into his own and is a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. Grayson Rodriguez struggled in several first-half starts, but since his return from Norfolk he's been a new pitcher, with a 2.85 ERA, a 3-1 record and 48 strikeouts. The preestablished pieces, such as Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Austin Hays, have all put in excellent seasons. And now even Jordan Westburg is looking good as someone who could take over 2nd from Adam Frazier next year.

The other really impressive part has been the leveling of the rotation. It's very funny that several figures you'd think would factor into the pitching rotation heading into the season, like John Means, Bruce Zimmermann, Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin, haven't really had much impact on things lately. That does means it's more of an anonymous rotation, but I do feel like slowly, someone like Kyle Bradish or Dean Kremer will make themselves known. Kremer has done what he always does, in start shakily but level things out down the stretch with some really consistent starts. He also leads the team in strikeouts this year with 139, which is pretty cool. That Bradish, Kremer and Rodriguez have been so strong this year, even when actual rotation vets like Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty are here to ensure they don't need to do as much, makes me very confident in this team's future. Cause imagine if Means comes back ready next year. The groundwork has already been laid.

And as good as this team has been this year, the future still intrigues me. The kind of team they'll be when they don't need the training wheels vets, and can just coast on their excellent youth pieces. Imagine how good they'll be when they can bring up Jackson Holliday. Maybe it's next year. Imagine what that could bring them. 

I really hope the Orioles accomplish great things going forward. I hope they can get past 100 wins. I hope they go deep in the playoffs. I hope they stay this good. It's honestly awesome to watch.

Coming Tonight: In a week where the conversation on suspensions has reawakened, a guy who did his time and is back to what he does best, regardless of whether or not you feel good about him.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Orioles

 

I want to make something clear. I always want the Baltimore Orioles to do well. Baseball's better when the Orioles are good. They're always so fun and I enjoy rooting for them. I like when Adam Jones runs around the bases and smiles. 

So 2022, where the O's managed to ride a youth movement to an 83-79 record regardless of an AL East death sentence, was a very enjoyable year for me. The Orioles took their low budget and outdid the Red Sox, who'd spent all that money on Trevor Story. It was incredible. Yes, they still lost out on a playoff spot, but to be honest, they laid the foundation for several more seasons of .500+ work, and that's all that matters.

Jordan Lyles, after a few seasons of decent stuff in Arlington, was meant to be the lynchpin of this young rotation, and be the veteran arm that led things without having to be too terrific himself. Lyles started all 32 games, had a 4.42 ERA, 144 Ks and 12 wins. Not terrible, even if he wasn't terrific. He did manage to get an awesome complete game win out of it, which is pretty cool. 

2023 Prediction: With Kyle Gibson filling the veteran arm role in Baltimore, I don't think Lyles will return to that rotation. If anything, I think he'll go back to Pittsburgh, where things went well enough for him in 2019. 

But, what's most important is that after Lyles, the O's employed several homegrown, young pitchers to carry the load and they DID. Dean Kremer, who'd struggled in the past few seasons, had a great season in 2022, with 8 wins and a 3.23 ERA in 18 games. Kremer's 2.8 WAR is the highest of any O's starter this year. For a guy people had already written off, this is a great start.

2023 Prediction: I'm still not sure if John Means will be healthy by the start of the season, but if he isn't, there's gonna be a competition to see which of these guys most resembles an ace. I think Kremer's gonna have the most success of that, and therefore have the best season of any of them next year.

The Orioles, waiting for Gunnar Henderson to come to prominence, signed Rougned Odor for a year, thinking eventually they wouldn't need him. Odor played 135 games this year. So they needed him, I guess. Odor did his usual thing, being more known for his flashiness and power perks than being good at defense, or even offense. He hit .207 with 53 RBIs and 13 homers. Par for the course for the guy. 

2023 Prediction: His days of starting for good teams are likely over. Either he's backing somebody up or he's starting somewhere like Oakland or Washington.

Kyle Bradish may not have been the most on-target of the young O's pitchers, with a 4-7 record and a 4.90 ERA, but Bradish throws hard and struck out 111, leading the rotation in SO/9 with 8.5. Bradish looks like one of those hard-throwing work-horses that up and coming teams need at least one of.

2023 Prediction: If he doesn't blow out his arm by June, he'll hit 200 Ks and be starting Game 2 of a Wild Card series.

Spenser Watkins was one of the few real starting weapons from 2021 that made much of an impact this year. Watkins started 20 games and had a 4.70 ERA, and was a solid low-rotation asset for the team. At 29, he's one of the older members of this youth movement, and therefore one of the more risky ones going forward.

2023 Prediction: Has the highest probability of getting dealt for room, sad to say.

Austin Voth, the former Nationals farmhand, impressed Orioles fans midseason with some unexpected prowess in starting scenarios, with a 3.04 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 22 games, 17 of them starts. Call him the Chris Ellis of this year, because he took some innings late into the season when no one expected him to.

2023 Prediction: I see him taking more of a relief role next year, but he'll get some starts if someone gets injured.

The Orioles' main bullpen asset that...wasn't Jorge Lopez or Felix Bautista was former Astros bullpen guy Cionel Perez. Perez was statistically the O's best pitcher this year, with a 1.40 ERA, 7 wins and only 9 runs allowed in 58 innings. In a bullpen of similar threats, Perez was a helpfully deadly bullpen presence that made himself known after years of subtle work.

2023 Prediction: I think he's gonna make an All-Star team next year, even if he doesn't get the ninth, which, with Bautista, is likely.

Though not the starriest Baltimore rookie of the year, Terrin Vavra raised eyebrows late in the year as a helpful utility/DH piece. In 40 games he hit .258 with 12 RBIs and 23 hits, which is a decent start.

2023 Prediction: I think Vavra is gonna get some decent reps next year, but not as a starter, at least not initially. 

And then there's Gunnar Henderson. People were waiting to see what he could do in the majors. He finally came up in August, and he hit .259, with 30 hits, 18 RBIs and 4 homers, in addition to making great infield plays. Having Henderson and Rutchman up and surging is a very good thing, and is another thing that makes the 2023 team so shockingly intimidating. 

2023 Prediction: Serious AL ROY contender, look for 150 hits and a .300 average.

Tomorrow- a few extra Padres I didn't get to when they were eliminating all the 100+ win teams.

2020 Topps Final Edition: Card #163-171

 With this post, we reach the halfway point of 2020 Topps Final Edition. We started in February, we've hit 165/330 in April, which means at this rate we'll finish in like June. Hope that's alright. I'm still enjoying rolling these out, hope y'all are still enjoying looking at them. 

Anyway, here's the next 9 cards in the set:

Card #163- Jace Peterson, Milwaukee Brewers

A former Braves infielder from the dire mid-2010s teams, Jace Peterson had bopped between New York and Baltimore for a few years before settling in Milwaukee for 2020. Peterson, primarily a 3rd baseman, was used in an outfield role to cover for the loss of Lorenzo Cain, and did alright at the plate with a .200 average and 5 RBIs. His decent bench work was rewarded by the Brewers, as they re-upped him for 2021.

Card #164- Mark Melancon ASG, Atlanta Braves

If a potential 2020 All Star Game had happened, and both managers were allowed a limited number of relief options, I still think Mark Melancon would have been on Dave Martinez' shortlist. After failing in big-contract deals in SF before this, Melancon finally had the pressure off as part of a super-bullpen in Atlanta, and rose to the closing gig like no time had passed. Melancon's ability not only to work the ninth but aid the team in regular relief was an asset to a surging Braves squad, and would have garnered Melancon his fourth ASG gig. But I suppose that will have to happen this year in Colorado. 

Card #165- David Peterson, New York Mets

David Peterson was the biggest rookie call-up in Queens last year, even bigger than Andres Gimenez. Peterson had been a strong arm in the minors for a few years, and was brought up to cover for the tepid results of Wacha and Porcello's signings. Peterson had to fight injury at one point, but still finished the season with great numbers, including a 3.44 ERA in 10 games, and 40 strikeouts. While he hasn't been as lucky in 2021 so far, he definitely has the big-game ability the Mets were worried they'd lost with the dissolution of the 2015 rotation.

Card #166- Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

The pride of Israel, Dean Kremer became the first ever Israeli citizen [his folks are from there so he has citizenship] to play in the majors, and his first few starts for the O's were a ton to celebrate. He struck out 22 in 18 innings, and had a 4.82 ERA in 4 games, certainly not a bad shake of things for a struggling rotation. So far his numbers have been up to his 2020 standards, and he's since been demoted, but I imagine he's like John Means in that he needs to fail a little in order to get into his stride. 

Card #167- Scott Alexander, Los Angeles Dodgers

Alexander has been one of the many sharp relievers to come out of the Dodgers' bullpen, and he continued his strong work in the shortened 2020 season. In only 13 appearances, Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA with 2 wins and 9 Ks, before missing the postseason due to injury. Nevertheless, Alexander is still counted on as an integral member of the Dodgers' current bullpen.

Card #168- Jason Castro, San Diego Padres

Jason Castro's slow fall from starting catching weapon to backup catcher has officially set in, as his contact ability has dissipated since leaving Houston. After backing up Max Stassi in LA for the first half of the 2020 season, Castro was picked up as a backup option for the Padres, who were now without Luis Torrens and Austin Hedges. Castro proceeded to hit .179 in 9 regular season games, and didn't have any offensive luck in the playoffs. Now he's back to backing up Martin Maldonado in Houston. 

Card #169- Nelson Cruz ASG, Minnesota Twins

This should not shock you. Not that Nelson Cruz would have been an All Star last year, and not that he would have been the AL's starting DH. While an earlier HGH suspension has made me wary of the authenticity of his late-era exploits, it's still a wonder that at 39, Cruz can still hit .300 and bounce homers over the wall. Hell, he already has 4 home runs on the season, and he's hitting .390. Though logically 2021 may be his last contractual season, it may not be the end of his career. 

Card #170- Anthony Bass, Toronto Blue Jays

Anthony Bass is one of those journeyman odd-job relievers that you may not know, but has done some impressive stuff. He's pitched in Chicago, Seattle and Toronto the last few years and been a worthy relief option in all 3 cities. Last season in Toronto was doubly impressive because Bass was a ninth inning option for the first part of it, and he posted a 0.6 WAR in 26 games, even getting his first postseason strikeout out of it. So far, though, he's having some trouble in Miami this year.

Card #171- Phillips Valdez, Boston Red Sox

Phillips Valdez kicked around the minors for 10 years before making the Rangers in 2019, but had to get waived twice more in order to find a true home in Boston. Making the team out of camp, Valdez was an incredible relief option, with a 3.26 ERA in 24 games, with 30 Ks as well. Valdez is this string-bean-y type who throws smoke and keeps runs down. So far he's repeating the same kind of performance this year, so Boston's very lucky to have him. 

The next 9 cards go up on Friday. This batch includes some very big rookies and a few interesting veterans to talk about.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Orioles

 After two straight seasons of losing 100 games, really the only direction left to go is up, and that was where the Orioles were this year. They finished in fourth, with a 25-35 record, far from great but far from the pitfalls of the last two years. 

John Means, after his scorching 2019, had a step back after his first few starts, but was dynamite by September, with a 2.45 ERA and 35 strikeouts, much more familiar to Orioles fans.

2021 Prediction: A full ace-type showing that'll get competing teams's attention.

As helpful as both Hanser Alberto and Renato Nunez were during the 2019 season, both were non tendered for the offseason. Alberto hit .283 this year with a club-leading 62 hits, and a still-admirable 22 RBIs. Despite a lower WAR, he was still one of the better power hitters in the O's lineup, it's sad that he's on the way out as well

2021 Prediction: Whoever signs him will be rewarded with some classic clutch hitting.

Austin Hays was a charter member of the gang of O's rookies from 2017 and 2018 who didn't make an impact immediately in the majors, along with Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins. Hays has blossomed into a decent backup outfielder, and had a good season this year, batting .279 with 34 hits in 33 games, some good contact numbers. 

2021 Prediction: Will eventually get a window into starting in the outfield and become more of a fan favorite. 

The relief specialist of the year in Baltimore, especially considering that Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro and Mychal Givens all were traded partway into the season, was Tanner Scott. Scott had some scary relief numbers, with a 1.31 ERA and 23 Ks in 25 innings. He also had the highest WAR of anyone in the pitching staff, with a 1.2. 

2021 Prediction: ERA comes over 3, but gets a chance to close.

And as Anthony Santander's can't-miss 2020 ended with an injury, Cedric Mullins got a lot more starting time in the outfield. Mullins finally began to hit for average in the majors, with a .271 average and 12 RBIs in 48 games, a useful stint if anything. 

2021 Prediction: Won't be starting thanks to a likely Mountcastle-Santander-Hays formation, but will still be useful off the bench.

As the rotation succumbed to both injuries and high ERAs, the O's turned to two pitching prospects. The first was Keegan Akin, who had a 4.56 ERA in 8 games, complete with 35 strikeouts. A decent start, but it'd be dwarfed by the second guy.

2021 Prediction: Becomes a decent mid-rotation guy. Eats up innings without getting hit too much.

The second call-up was Dean Kremer, the true rookie and Israeli-American who made his community proud by making the bigs, and proceeding to strike out 22 in his first four starts, with a 4.82 ERA. Yes, he got some earned runs, but his stuff looks really good, and he could be a tricky little fireballer for the next few years.

2021 Prediction: Makes an all-star team and gets 200 strikeouts.

Coming Tomorrow- While the Padres did make the playoffs, for some reason a lot of their core members didn't get customs during the season, so I have a few of theirs ready.