Rays the Stakes

 

As I write this, the deficit between the Rays, who began the season by winning 13 straight games, and the Orioles, who have been their steady #2 for the majority of the year, has been cut to only 1 game. It happens during a tough week for both teams. The Rays are playing the Rangers right now, as the Orioles fend off the Dodgers. Whatever either side will have recouped, they'll have to put it to the test on Friday, as they must play each other and potentially solidify a divisional lead. 

Now...because one of these teams has been notoriously pesky the last few years and the other has undergone an insanely likable development process over the past few years, I have my favorites. I love pretty much everybody on the Orioles, they have such an amazing story and have so many great players. Meanwhile, the Rays have become great simply because of the organizational voodoo that Kevin Cash has laid down, and it's a more evil variation on the moneyball concept by taking great players that other teams don't want for cheap and then booting them when it comes time to pay. 

This is also a team that's had so many villains, or players I just plain do not like. The Rays have been behind an array of pissants-for those not in the know, Thorzul coined that term for a player that hits .200 against the rest of the league and .400 against your team. Carlos Pena used to be the big one, there was the one season where he got all his homers in against the Yanks pretty much. Then Mike Zunino, who was just a statistical trashfire of a player who still managed to get decent WAR on account of his defense. The current iteration of that is Taylor Walls, who is the single least spectacular MLB player in some time. I cannot name a single thing I've seen him do well. He hits .200 or less every year, maybe steals some bases and just refuses to do anything noteworthy, and leaves with like a 2 or 3 WAR. My guess is the guy who invented Wins Above Replacement is his dad. That'd be the only logical explanation. 

And there's all the relievers, but the funny thing is a lot of them just aren't doing very well this year. Ryan Thompson and Jalen Beeks are both down in the minors right now, as they haven't gotten it together at all this year. Jason Adam has 5 blown saves in addition to his 11 notched ones. Jeffrey Springs, as reported upon, had the single best mound success of his career and all the money in the world to enjoy it with only to immediately be out for what seems like the rest of the season. It's been nice.

With all the things that infuriate me about the Rays, they still have Harold Ramirez, who's not only a really fun contact hitter, but the dude's an autism parent and he loves his kid, and you have to respect that. Dyes his hair blue to support his son. I dunno if it's the full branded 'light it up blue' thing the corporations like or if he just likes the color. It's really awesome to see. Ramirez himself is hitting .286 with 36 RBIs and 9 homers. Ever since he came up with the Marlins I just wanted him to find success somewhere, and even if it took a few different teams it's happened with Tampa. Even if I don't like the Rays, I like that he's doing well for them.

The Rays, admittedly, are a bit less infuriating than usual lately, and still have Shane McClanahan, Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena playing really well. The O's may be extremely tough for them to fend off, but I know they're gonna do some incredible things before the fight in them's gone out.

Coming Tonight: A third baseman for a team that a lot of people seem to think is cheating right now.

Harold and Flawed

 

The Rays are gonna get a playoff spot this year with barely any stars, a ton of injuries, only one real trusted starter, and a bunch of assholes on the bullpen. There's some teams actually trying and making progress, and the Rays are just gonna walk right in despite having a really flawed team.

I honestly think Kevin Cash is comparable to somebody like Bill Belichick at this point. There were years where the Patriots rocketed into the playoffs despite not really having the team, but with the way Belichick managed them it was kind of a foregone conclusion. And that's where we're at with Cash, because Cash doesn't need a particularly good version of this Rays team to work his way into a wild card spot. He just got Wander Franco off the IL, he engineered an 11-0 victory against the Blue Jays last week, and he's procured his team a fourth consecutive playoff appearance.

The only issue is that the Rays are currently holding onto the third wild card spot, and the next few series' are against competitive teams like the Astros, Guardians, Blue Jays and Astros again. And while the Orioles, who are the next closest wild card competitors, do have only a slightly easier schedule leading up to the end of the regular season, the pressure of not getting beaten to a postseason spot by the ORIOLES of all people is sure to be mounting in Tampa right now.

And, like usual, the people being relied upon are flukey, low-budget journeyman guys who are all getting hot at the same time. Harold Ramirez is the poster child for this. He was alright last year in Cleveland, but right now for the Rays, Ramirez is hitting .306 with 108 hits and 54 RBIs. Lots of unsung guys like Ramirez, Jose Siri, Christian Bethancourt and [ugh] Jason Adam are succeeding for this team right now, and the only veterans who are holding things together for this team are relatively inconsequential ones like Yandy Diaz and Manuel Margot. I know the Rays are trying to establish themselves with people like Franco and Arozarena, but with Lowe and Kiermaier both injured during a playoff run, it's kind of a half-hearted effort. 

I mean, because it's the Rays, they're probably still gonna make the playoffs and probably go pretty far just by how well they can pull momentum out of nowhere. I just wish they'd act like some of the other teams and build their franchise with actual stars rather that low-budget, controllable guys. That may not happen til Cash leaves, but it'll perhaps make me like them more.

Coming Tomorrow- Dumb but lovable third baseman for a team trying to hang onto a postseason spot themselves.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Guardians

 

The last official year of Cleveland Indians baseball was a bit of a mess. Other than a routinely excellent Jose Ramirez performance, the young rotation taking shape, and some other minor moments, there wasn't a ton to really celebrate for Cleveland fans, and a lot of what I have to report here is just random thread lines. 

For instance- thanks to an injury keeping Roberto Perez down for most of the season, Austin Hedges was the Indians' starting catcher in 2021. In alternate universe where the Indians never trade for Brad Hand, they have Francisco Mejia doing decently. But, instead, they had Hedges, a solid defensive catcher with 0 offensive numbers. This year he had some great fielding and defensive numbers, but had a -24 batting figure, a career worse, bringing his WAR to a 0.0. 

2022 Prediction: The Guardians have another catching option that saddles Hedges to a backup. I'm just...not sure who that option's gonna be.

After a very strong rookie season as a bullpen asset, James Karinchak did level to a 4.07 ERA, but he snuck in some other important stats like 7 wins, 11 saves in backing up Emmanuel Clase, and 78 Ks. He's still a very crafty reliever with some serious heat to him, even if he does get unlucky in some places.

2022 Prediction: A much more consistent year. Karinchak will be the top bullpen arm in appearances, and solidify his role as a middle relief force.

In Carlos Santana's absence, the 1st base position was a hard-to-fill spot for the Indians this season. While Jake Bauers and Yu Chang made some attempts, the biggest one came from burgeoning youngster Bobby Bradley, who seems to have made the best case for the corner. Bradley only hit .208 in 74 games, but he was a crucial power bat, with 41 RBIs and 16 home runs. On a full season with a little more luck, who knows what he could do?

2022 Prediction: First 30-homer season. People will know his name.

After a SCORCHING postseason last year, Josh Naylor leveled into a starting outfield role with Cleveland, and hit .253 in 69 games with 59 hits and and 7 homers. His season was tragically cut short by an injury, but his place on the depth chart is still very strong.

2022 Prediction: A contact-friendly year that may result in a trade. 

After slipping out of the Miami depth chart himself, Harold Ramirez took another swing of things filling in for Naylor, and later Eddie Rosario. Ramirez did surprisingly well for himself, hitting .268 with 41 RBIs and 7 homers, and garnering 91 hits in 99 games. 

2021 Prediction: Will fill a similar role with the Cubs. In a climate starved for great players, the fans will take a liking to him.

And in one of the most crucial trades of the deadline, the Indians swapped Phil Maton for Myles Straw in a deal that, while it made sense for the Astros at the time, may wound them longer term. Straw absolutely lit up upon arriving in Cleveland, hitting .285 with 68 hits in 60 games, having some excellent defensive plays, and having the 7th-highest WAR on the team despite coming in 2/3rd of the way through the year.

2022 Prediction: Ends the season with the highest WAR of anybody on the Guardians, including Jose Ramirez. 

Tomorrow, some of the reasons why the Seattle Mariners were so deadly down the stretch.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Marlins

The 2019 Marlins...certainly were a thing.

Derek Jeter's quest to rid the team of everything that made them great in 2016 finished this year, with the final core member, J.T. Realmuto, leaving pre-season, and the final bench member, Martin Prado, gone after the season. There are some minor members of that team left, like Miguel Rojas, Jose Urena and Adam Conley, but the bulk of that nearly-playoff team is gone.

So this is what's replaced it. Veterans, inexperienced players, and the occasional ripe call-up like Harold Ramirez, who had a 50-RBI year, in 118 games, and batted .276. Ramirez is a fun outfield guy that could be a major player in subsequent tanking Marlins teams.
Why Him in 2019?: Might be a formative member of a dynasty, so seeing his debut strongly helps.
2020 Prediction: Will lead the team in WAR, and be right up there with Rojas, Brian Anderson and, if he signs like we're thinking he will, Yasiel Puig at the heart of the lineup.

 The other interesting outfield addition, or just utility addition, was Jon Berti, a journeyman who'd been through the Toronto and Cleveland organizations before finding a home in Miami, where he played shortstop and outfield, and led the team in stolen bases.
Why Him in 2019?: 9 of his 17 stolen bases came in September, a month where he batted .287 and softened the blow of ending up in last.
2020 Prediction: A more concrete starting position, and a potential mid-year trade to a contender.

 The Marlins' pitching was definitely an improvement from 2018, with Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith making league waves, Zac Gallen getting traded to Arizona for his hot start, and Jordan Yamamoto's unhittable June, with 23 strikeouts and 3 wins in 4 starts. The former Brewers prospect's stuff is pretty nasty, even if he had trouble controlling it in subsequent months.
Why Him in 2019?: Best rookie pitcher to stick around in Miami this year.
2020 Prediction: Will be the breakout arm of the team by ASG-time.

 Jose Urena continued his W/L ratio woes from last year, ending the year with a 4-10 record. He's still a sharp pitcher, with a 6.6 SO/9 average, but he's one of those guys that'd be a little more potent if he were on a better team.
Why Him in 2019?: His injury made it possible for Yamamoto, Gallen, Robert Dugger and Elieser Hernandez too enter the fold.
2020 Prediction: Dare I say it, but at half-year the team might think about moving Urena back to the bullpen.

 Pablo Lopez was an early rotation experiment that went alright, with 95 strikeouts in 21 games despite a 5+ ERA. Before missing time due to injury, Lopez had a scorching June, with a 1.89 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 3 starts.
Why Him in 2019?: Deep-rotation guy that added enough depth to give pitching optimism to a team that has lost theirs since Fernandez died.
2020 Prediction: Will be a steady fifth man that will have a 4 ERA and not piss anyone off.

 Robert Dugger was another pitching prospect fielded in the numerous salary-clearing trades, and he made a late debut in 2019. In 7 games, he lost 4 games, had a 5.77 ERA and only 25 strikeouts, so clearly he'll take a learning curve.
Why Him in 2019?: Last of the major 2019 pitching callups for the Marlins.
2020 Prediction: Of the rookie pitchers, he has the best chance of seeing time in the minors next year.

2019 was the final year on Martin Prado's contract, and he used it as a bench bat primarily. Prado hit .233 in 104 games, adding 57 more hits to his career total of 1542.
Why Him in 2019: Finished what may be his last season as a member of the team that arguably brought him the most success.
2020 Prediction: Retirement.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets, once again, lapped the Phillies and made an attempt at the postseason. It didn't exactly work, but they had one of their best teams since the 2015 roster dissolved.