Wild Card Week Day 2: Poetic Justice

 

I didn't think they'd actually be able to do it...

The Tigers had the momentum, the Astros were falling apart...it seemed like it'd be funny if it did happen, as unlikely as it was. I figured 'it's October, the Astros usually catch fire in October, this is the kind of team they could embarrass', but...at the same time, the Tigers embarrassing the Astros in Houston was just as likely. I just...hoped for an outcome. And I think it's wild that said outcome ended up happening.

The Tigers took down the Astros, and a dealing Hunter Brown, with only pure small ball. Parker Meadows' homer got the ball rolling early, but hits from Matt Vierling and Andy Ibanez broke the game open and made it much easier for the Tigers to roll into the ALDS. I have no idea how it happened, and I have no idea if they stand any chance against the Guardians, but they are scrappy, they can scrounge runs from anywhere, and they are unpredictable.

And so ends the Astros' 7 year run of making the ALCS. They had great moves, huge streaks, and smart organizational planning, but the pitching staff couldn't sustain itself and the team just wasn't as good as past versions. It was nice that Jon Singleton got to be this team's everyday first baseman, but Yuli Gurriel's seeing the second week of October and the rest of the Astros aren't. People are predicting some big pieces are gonna leave, and I have a hard time finding any sympathy for this team in that process. Oh no, the eight year dynasty you built is finally coming apart, you know, like a normal team! Talk to Jerod Mayo and see how he's coping. 

Meanwhile, though the Orioles put up more runs than yesterday, it was superior starting pitching and just the slightest offensive help that gave the Royals the edge. When you have Seth Lugo and that bullpen neutralizing the offense, all you need is a little something from Pasquantino or Witt and you've got a playoff win. Lucas Erceg got to bring it home, and after his breakthrough year he deserves that moment. The Royals are living pretty large right now, and giving how they've matched up against the Yankees thus far, they could legitimately chase New York in this 5-game series. I still think the Yanks have the edge, but the Royals have a lot that could keep us from steamrolling them.

Let's face it, the O's season ended a month and a half ago. The team ran out of steam, the rotation folded, Rutschman went cold, the Yanks secured the division lead...the Orioles' heart just wasn't in it for this stretch run. And I hate saying that, because this team seemed so strong at midseason. Ryan O'Hearn was nearly an all-star, and though he finishes the season with his head held high, he probably thought his postseason would last a little longer than this. This team just got dealt terrible luck this year, and hopefully the stars align so they can really go for it in 2025. 

Of the four wild card series', Mets-Brewers was the one I saw going all three games. And it's because even if the Mets take game one, you cannot count out A.) the Brewers' ability to be clutch, and B.) the Mets' ability to completely shit the bed. Both happening here was not surprising. Jackson Chourio having a 2-homer game? Very surprising. In April everyone was calling him inexperienced and not ready, and then he snapped to it and put together a really nice rookie season. He can hit 2 home runs in October games now, at 20. So that's very good for the Brewers, and makes their preseason extension move look really good. The Brewers have some leverage for tomorrow's game, as well as the knowledge that the Mets are very good at blowing opportunities. It'll be interesting to see how that one shakes out.

And the most inevitable series of wild card week wrapped up just as you thought it would. The Padres had been one of the best teams in baseball since midyear, and were virtually unstoppable in the last month or so. Even with Joe Musgrove being removed early, this bullpen, offense and full unit was the stronger one by far, and matched up insanely well against the Braves. Kyle Higashioka was responsible for the big moment once again tonight, proving that he really is a great fit with the Padres. Machado and Merrill equally impressed, and made sure it wasn't just Tatis covering the power this October. This team made quick work of Max Fried, stopped even late offensive surges from Michael Harris and Jorge Soler, and put a cap on a quick series. The Padres look to surprise the Dodgers and return to the NLCS. It'd be amazing if this happened, even despite all the selling they did after the Peter Seidler gambit failed.

Look, considering everything that's gone wrong for the Braves this year, I think making the playoffs in itself was a nice victory. They squeezed into the playoffs at the last second, with a lot of ailing team members, and did their best with a ragtag group of veterans helping out. Ramon Laureano, Gio Urshela, Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler played big roles in this team, and that should say a lot. I think Soler did a lot to bring back the 2021 vibes, but it was never gonna be enough. Hopefully Riley, Acuna and Strider are healthy next year and this team can dominate again. 

The Phils anxiously wait to see who wins in Milwaukee. They arguably match up better against the Brewers, but the Mets could cling to life and force a crucial divisional rematch. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Astros

 

The Houston Astros have been in all of the past 7 ALCS matchups. Perhaps solely by inertia at this point. 

The 2023 incarnation of the Astros was a different iteration of the team. For half the year they didn't have Justin Verlander, or many sure bets in terms of starting pitching in general. They also had Jose Abreu at 1st rather than Yuli Gurriel, which was honestly a step down, as well as more inexperienced options in the outfield as well as, for half the year, at 2nd. Yes, there were rookie successes abound, like Hunter Brown, Yanier Diaz and J.P. Sears, but it couldn't distract from the fact that the core of the 2017 keeps getting further and further away from the modern crew. Despite being the only team not to be stymied by the first-round bye, they were on borrowed time to begin with, and fell to their cross-state rivals.

Jake Meyers, though overshadowed by fellow young outfield piece Chas McCormick, was still responsible for some nice, dominant stuff this year. He only hit .227, but he had 10 home runs and 33 RBIs, while also being an impressive defensive outfield piece. With Brantley gone, he could be in the running for a more permanent outfield role.

2024 Prediction: If the Astros really think they have something with Meyers, he'll be a strong starter next year. If not, he'll be backing up somebody they traded for, and perhaps not lasting very long in Houston.

 

Ryan Pressly has been the closer in Houston for 4 years now, approximately 3 more than I figured he would. I genuinely thought they'd go for a surefire veteran closer after the 2020 season, but they knew something I didn't and trusted Pressly, and he's racked up 107 saves overall as an Astro. 31 of them came in 2023, despite turning in his least dominant year to date. The 34-year old struck out 74 while finishing with a 3.58 ERA. 

2024 Prediction: I am thinking that midway through this year, his last guaranteed, the Astros will begin to figure out whether they need to push someone younger [France? Maton?] into the ninth. I do expect a similar number of saves, though.

One of the Astros' more potent middle relief options, aside from Hector Neris, who'll be pitching elsewhere next year, was homegrown Bryan Abreu, who held a 1.75 ERA all year, and was the Astros' only reliever to strike out 100 batters this year. Abreu is young, durable, and has a season like this under his belt, so the Astros have to be overjoyed.

2024 Prediction: If he doesn't throw out his arm after a season like that, something similar, perhaps with a slightly higher ERA.

The Astros' feel good story of the year was Jon Singleton, who debuted in 2014, not long after George Springer did, but failed to produce at the MLB level and was out of baseball for several years. He wound up with the Brewers on a minor league deal, and once that failed, was back in Houston. The biggest exclamation point of Singleton's season was hitting 2 home runs in his first game back in Minute Maid Park. He never really matched that moment, despite some time on the Astros' postseason roster, but it was nice for him to finally earn his redemption.

2024 Prediction: I mean, does he have anything left to prove?

Coming Tomorrow: A whole bunch of A's rookies. 

Custom Card of the Morning: Singleton Edition

If you're keeping track, I have made more customs of the team that is LAST in the AL West than I have of the team that is FIRST in the AL West. I have no idea why, they just haven't given me too many shots.

Singleton could be good for the Astros, mainly because everything else hasn't really been good for them. Him, Springer, Altuve and Keuchel are probably the only people on the team that are really doing their jobs this season. A shame this guy could have been a Phillie.

Coming Tonight: Another Rookie, this one from Pittsburgh.