One Way Ticket to Schwellenbach

 

[I've done the 'extreme music pun' thing so infrequently recently that when one comes along I need to jump on it. I make no apologies.]

I do wonder if the Braves would have been a better team this year had the injury bug not hit them like mad. Acuna, Albies, Harris, Riley, Strider, they all go down. So much of the crux of this season has been defined by replacement guys, people like Jarred Kelenic, Reynaldo Lopez, Travis d'Arnaud and Whit Merrifield, people who were not meant to play large roles in this team but were thrust into the circumstances. And this season continues to move on with the knowledge that these replacements can work, that d'Arnaud is probably having a better season than Murphy, that Lopez and Sale have been the aces this year [despite...fears of the contrary]. 

This is not the Braves team that people thought they'd be getting this year, but it's been a good enough one nonetheless. Moreover, Braves fans that thought they'd be rolling with a rotation of Strider-Fried-Sale-Morton-Elder have probably been more relieved that the Lopez-Sale-Fried-Morton-Schwellenbach arrangement has been pretty successful on its own. If anything, the strikeouts are still coming without Strider. Chris Sale's gonna have a 200-K season this year and probably vy for a Cy Young, which is...odd to me. There are seasons with Boston and Chicago where I think he deserved a Cy Young more than this year, and yet because of the sparser race it does seem like it's him right now. He does deserve one, yes, and he's likely a HOF talent, but...it's weird that this is his Cy Young season and the others weren't. It's like Al Pacino getting his Oscar for Scent of a Woman. Like this is good and all, but...we've all seen Godfather II, right? He's incredible there.

I think about what Spencer Schwellenbach is doing this season, he's got 94 Ks in 14 starts and a 1.032 WHIP, and I think about what would happen in a season where he, Fried and Strider were all healthy, all got to pitch 32 games, and were all on. Would anybody be able to stop them? I'd throw Sale in there as well but I don't know if he's at the point in his career where he can pitch consecutive 32-game seasons. This may be the last taste of his peak. Fried, Strider and Schwellenbach are all very much still there, and could be a three-headed dragon that could pain NL East competitors next year. And that's just if THEY stay healthy. If the Braves get full seasons out of Acuna, Albies and Harris next year, that could rectify a lot of what made this season a disappointment.

But it's an 'if' at this point. The Braves are a talented, well-run, well-contracted organization that just cannot land upon the luck necessary to make them a dynasty. It could happen, and it should happen...but unless things change drastically, it might not even happen this year.

Coming Tonight- He may not be the family breadwinner, but he's boosted his career in a big way just this season alone.

Gavin Could Wait

 

When the Dodgers called up Gavin Lux in 2019, it was thought to be a killswitch move. The Dodgers were cruising thanks to Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Enrique Hernandez, and now Lux would be the next homegrown step, along with newer pieces like Will Smith, to cement the franchise's landmark status. His getting off to a decent enough start was expected, as was his minimized role in the Dodgers' sole WS win with this regime.

Since then? Lux has had one truly great season, a bunch of injury-plagued seasons and this current year, where it took him ages to heat up and he's only now gotten to where he should have been all along. He's 26 years old, and he's really only had a handful of success under his belt. In LA, where if somebody isn't working they can just buy somebody better. 

Still, Lux has proved himself a strong competitor, especially in a period where many important Dodger pieces are either hurt, slumping or simply in flux. Lux is hitting .249 on the season, but since the all-star break he's been hitting .333 with 36 hits, 21 RBIs and 7 home runs. This is the kind of pace people wish he was getting to earlier, and hopefully he stays there as the Dodgers rebound towards September. Having Lux in place now, especially as people like Kiké Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor can only do so much filling in for infield positions, definitely helps.

Now the team has Mookie Betts and Gavin Lux back, and are beginning to see Freddie Freeman come back from his family emergency. Betts has dipped under .300, and is taking a little while to come back, but it's still important that he's back. Muncy's immediately power hitting again, he's already got 5 RBIs and 2 homers since the return. Teoscar's chasing 30, Flaherty and Kopech have been brilliant since coming over, Kershaw is at the very least keeping his ERA under 4...oh and Shohei Ohtani's got a 40-40 season and wants to go 50-50. A lot is happening in Dodgerville, and even if this clearly isn't the mightiest Dodgers team in the past few years, they've got a lot of big things to accomplish before the season's out, and they're gonna get it done.

I'd love for this to be the beginning of a strong run for Lux, if he becomes a perennial guy for them. They're clearly hoping for him to be this everyday hero, and right now he's playing really well without being Bobby Witt. We'll see how far he can go.

Coming Tomorrow- He's not the first Braves starter with a really long name to strike out a ton of people, but he might be the most crucial. 

Pray We Never Meet Again

 

Sometimes, the MLB schedule hands us unintentional previews of playoff matches. In 2022, there was a very exciting Phillies-Astros series late in the regular season, one the Phils actually won, which set the stage for the WS one where the Astros could actually leg it out thanks to Martin Maldonado leaning into pitches. Last year, the Diamondbacks crushed the Rangers in a late August series, then paid the piper in October when the Rangers came back to win a World Series against them. The Yankees and Astros always treat their regular season meetings as potential preludes to postseason series, which is why it's been so nice that the Yanks have been kicking Houston's ass recently.

Yet right now, there's a series going on that features two teams that very well could play themselves in the postseason. The division leading Houston Astros, and the 2nd place and surprisingly falling Baltimore Orioles.

These are two teams that, ideally, should be going in separate directions. The Orioles were so strong throughout the season, and have such promise, that you hate to see them dropping games to the Mets, Blue Jays and Padres. The Astros, meanwhile, have so little of a story this year that you honestly wish they had more trouble waltzing to the top yet again. The Mariners held onto 1st for so long, then the bottom fell out when they realized they had to hit as well. The Astros just...waited for their lineup to start hitting, and for their rotation to get healthy, and they acted like it was all part of the plan from the start. Therefore, of the two, in my opinion, the wrong team is doing well right now.

Ultimately, this series has been the kind of tense back and forth you might expect. Game 1 was an infuriating shutout thanks to a Astros pitcher, Spencer Arrighetti, who seems to only be good in these crucial settings. Game 2 was listless for a while then punched through by an Anthony Santander grand slam. And yesterday's Game 3 was equally exciting, with Framber Valdez quieting the O's as Pena and Altuve hit 'em out, thanks to Albert Suarez's solid, but imperfect, pitching, only for Jackson Holliday to pinch hit a 3-RBI blast to quiet the Astros. These are two competitive teams who both want the glory, and while the O's have the edge at the moment, the Astros aren't gonna want to take the quiet way out.

The Astros are seeing continued dominance from people like Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman and Hunter Brown. Not all of these guys were playing well all year, but they certainly are now. Meanwhile, the Orioles have seen Colton Cowser falter and then spring back to life, Eloy Jimenez suddenly find his contact bat as a DH, Jackson Holliday finally figure out the majors, and Gunnar Henderson continue to cement his league-wide greatness. 

Both teams have the opportunity for a great postseason run. If you think this series is tense now, if they meet again in the postseason it could be even bloodthirstier. I'd obviously be rooting for the O's to finally triumph, but we all know that the Astros won't make it easy for them.

Coming Tonight: Similarly, a guy who took a few months to fully come back from his 2023 injury, and now he's a big part of his own team's playoff push.

With Plenty of Cushion

 

At different points during this season, the Dodgers, Guardians and Phillies had commanding, week-long leads over their divisions. And here we are, heading into the homestretch, and the first place team with the biggest lead over its competition is the Milwaukee Brewers. A team in arguably one of the most competitive divisions in the league.

It's not that every team in the NL Central is good, it's that all five of them won't rest until they've completely exhausted any attempt to compete. That's why even as the Pirates are 8 games back from the Wild Card spot and 3 games back from 2nd place, they're still trying. The majority of the division is under .500, but not by much. Nobody in the NL Central is gonna lose 100 games this year, and they're all aware of it. So all this business at the moment of teams scratching and clawing just to go upwards in a division that doesn't matter is just to exhaust the possibility that the door is still open. It could be. The Padres, Braves, Mets and D-Backs could all fall apart and make it possible for an NL Central team to bounce in. 

But at the moment, it's clear that there's only one wholly excellent team in this division, and that is the Brewers. Right now they have multiple multifaceted lineup pieces, three starters who I'd trust in a postseason series today, three of the best relievers in baseball without any hyperbole, and one of the most satisfying rookies in a year that also has Jackson Holliday and Paul Skenes in it. And they're doing all of this without Christian Yelich. 

Might I remind you that the last time a team built this much momentum without their marquee star, it was 2021, and it was the Atlanta Braves. They won without Acuna. And the Brewers have the opportunity to exceed their usual playoff finishing spot without Yelich.

So, let's be clear: Peralta, Rea, Myers. Not the Milwaukee Big 3 I figured we'd see so soon after Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta. I thought Rea was decent enough last year, and while Peralta's a key guy he's had control issues. But these three have been truly excellent this year. Peralta's got 8 wins and 164 Ks, along with a 3.86 ERA. Rea's 11-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 108 Ks. And now rookie Tobias Myers has completely locked in, and is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 90 Ks in 20 games. And let's be clear here, Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas are no slouches either this year. Montas has been really strong since arriving in Milwaukee, he's 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 21 Ks. Civale is shaky but still reliable enough. This is a pretty sharp rotation to go into a playoff race with, especially considering this rotation once had D.L. Hall, Bryse Wilson and Joe Ross in it.

Aside from that, you have Jackson Chourio finally figuring out MLB hitting, Adames and Contreras continuing their excellent Milwaukee runs, Sal Frelick branching out at the plate in addition to his strong defensive work, Gary Sanchez and Rhys Hoskins finally heating up, and Devin Williams comfy in the ninth again. I am getting a vibe from this Brewers team that the last several haven't given me, and I think they could surprise some people this fall. It does take the correct circumstances, but if they keep this momentum going, they could run it all the way.

Coming Tomorrow- A catcher that is one of many on his team just refusing to have a down season.

The Guardians' Skeleton Crew

 

I know that it's easy to point out all the injured Dodgers pitchers or all the Orioles starters who won't appear again this year, but people forget that the Guardians are a 1st place team this year, overwhelmingly so, without Shane Bieber, and with minimal input from all of Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Alex Cobb. Cobb was traded at the deadline while injured, made two pretty nice starts and immediately went back on the IL. McKenzie and Allen tried but couldn't cut it. Carrasco isn't what he was in 2015 and got hurt. 

So the Guardians rotation is currently consisting of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Matt Boyd...and, uh, a free space. Which is what happens when you flip Xzavion Curry for nothing. I'd assume Joey Cantillo's gonna get called back up eventually but after that last start I'm not even sure. Who else on the active roster can start games? One of the relievers? They gonna call up someone we're not thinking about? Is a waiver deal gonna happen? 

I mean, yes, the Guardians can hit their way out of anything at this point, and have the bullpen to leg it out, but this is not the rotation you'd think a sure competitor would have at this point. Gavin Williams got lit up by the Yankees the other day, and he's been in shoddy shape all year. Boyd had been solid since the call-up, but in a way that makes people wish for his mid-2010s Tigers numbers. The surprise depth of last year seems to be counterintuitive. Allen and McKenzie did their best but don't have it, and aren't the immediate option [though honestly they really should go with McKenzie].

The saving grace of the bullpen has been Ben Lively, who the Guardians picked up on a flyer and has been surprisingly consistent. He's made all his starts and has gone 10-8, with a 3.68 ERA and 98 Ks. He's not as flashy as someone like Williams or Bibee, but he can stay in for a while and keep people guessing without overexerting himself. This is a guy who only had so much success in the Korean leagues, and made his way back through consistent work in Louisville, ironically given that the Reds initially drafted Lively back in the day. He just worked hard, played the system, and eventually he got back to the majors and got to start games again. It didn't happen overnight but he worked hard enough at it, and now he's a crucial starter for a competitor.

The Guardians have a month left to pin down three or more trustworthy postseason starters, or else things are gonna get really hairy in October. Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan and Jhonkensy Noel are all looking ready for the postseason, and it's mostly just looking like a race to see how big Ramirez's season is gonna be, regardless of the fact that he's essentially playing for third in the MVP race at this point. This is a well-constructed, well-managed and well-prepared team, that could do great things if this rotation thing works out. 

If not...I can only hope this team figures out how to make things work going forward. Cause that's something you just need to get over.

Coming Tonight: A rookie for a team whose rotation was similarly sparse, who's become one of the marquee hurlers, almost overnight.

Seeding Well is the Best Revenge

 

As the resident Yankee fan who grew up in the Philly area in the late 2000s, I do have some feelings about the picture of 2024 that is slowly forming. And my feelings are that if the Yankees and Phillies meet in the postseason, I'll be shocked.

My two favorite teams, the Yanks and Phils, are among the top contenders in baseball right now, as they have been all season. And that's been a nice luxury. It hasn't been since roughly 2011 that both of these teams have been this consistently good at the same time. The mid-2010s, where both teams were pretty rough, definitely made that gap seem longer, but the last few years, where the Phils have snuck their way in while the Yanks have talked a big game but flopped when it mattered, have been refreshing. And now here we are. The Yankees have the immortal Soto-Judge combo, the Phils have an excellent rotation and Harper, Turner and Bohm on top of their games. You're also seeing great seasons from strong veterans; Gerrit Cole is finally back to his baseline material after rehabbing, as he shut down the Guardians this week, while Aaron Nola's having another strong season of consistent, long starts. 

If this were 15 years ago, both would be guaranteed crucial spots in the postseason. But it's not. Thanks to the expanded playoffs, if you're good in the regular season you have to hope that you still have momentum after a week 1 bye, then immediately play teams that have been able to conserve momentum and hope you're a better team than them at this point. The only teams that have been able to break this system are the ones that get a low seed and build momentum throughout October, like the Phils have, or teams that are immune to weakness and are routinely excellent in October, anyway, like those damned Astros. 

So both the Yanks and Phils, if they continue at their current paths, will likely notch high seeds in the playoff picture, meaning they both have a chance of losing steam over the bye and coming back to lose to a competitor that, on paper, isn't a better team than them. If that happens, and the ongoing narrative of the season is undone yet again, I'll go mad. 

There is a solution to this, even if Rob Manfred will never think of it. During the wild card series, the four advancing teams play a three-game series against an opponent of their choice. For the competitors, it's played like a Spring Training game, primarily to get loose, or even to stretch out the bench subs and lower key guys, in an effort to ensure nobody gets hurt. For whichever team gets to play them, probably a lesser team they matched well enough against, it's an opportunity to showcase players who may be free agents, or trade targets, or provide previews of young players that could be major factors the following years. Essentially making it clear how they would do in October. The games don't count for anything, but the winner gets a friendly prize from the opposing city [i.e., the Phils bet a surplus of soft pretzels, while the Marlins throw in a whole bunch of fresh seafood or something]. And this way, the top seeds don't die out immediately, and keep the playoffs exciting rather than a World Series between six seeds. 

But, again, Manfred doesn't realize anything is wrong. It took mass protests early in the season for him to begin to bug Nike, who will likely have improved uniforms for 2025 [but only slightly]. But this is still a working model to him, even if the same thing keeps happening. So even if teams like the Yanks and Phils die out early, which I do not want to happen, he'll still assume there'll be a year where it doesn't. Which...is possible, but the circumstances might need to be changed in order for that to happen. 

So yes. I am really happy that both my teams are doing this well with a month or so left in the 2024 season. But I'm worried that a terrific regular season is all they'll have to show, considering the result of the previous playoff schematics. Hopefully this year is different. 

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Phillie from the dark ages, going from out of the leagues to a swingman with Cincinnati to a crucial starter for a league standout.

This Time Next Year Though...

 

So, to recap: top infield prospect Amael Amador, top base-stealing prospect Greg Jones, top pitching prospect Tanner Gordon, top outfield prospect Jordan Beck and top catching prospect Drew Romo...have accumulated a combined -1.7 WAR. Comparatively, Kris Bryant has a -0.7 WAR. It's embarrassing. Signing one of the biggest free agent hitters did not work. How about bringing up the prospects? That didn't work either. I...can't fathom the Rockies luck sometimes. 

But I will say, what 2024 has taught us so far is that if a rookie is completely divebombing for you, there's a chance he may come around the following year. Because the best performers of 2024 have been people who came up last year and struggled. Michael Toglia wasn't ready last year, and now he's got 20 homers and a .489 SLG. Brenton Doyle played sloppily last year, now he's a foundational piece with 60 RBIs and 24 steals. Ezequiel Tovar was more 'decent' than anything last year, and now he's fully come into his own hitting .272 with 140 hits. 

And what's great is that the veterans on this team can tell you the same thing. Everyone remembers how hyped Ryan McMahon was at the start of the 2017 season, he was supposed to be what Trevor Story was the previous year. He wasn't. It took him two years to actually figure out contact hitting, and he's become the most important player on the roster. Brendan Rodgers also struggled during his 2019 call-up, and realized he needed to earn his place on the roster. Since then he's had some incredible seasons, including a 2022 gold glove campaign. 

The issue with Rodgers, though, has been his injury-plagued campaigns recently. He missed most of 2023, and spent a lot of this year rehabbing as well. I think now Rodgers has finally reached the point where he's fully back, as he's hitting .279 with 112 hits and 45 RBIs. His defense isn't what it was in 2022, but he's still a very helpful piece of a team that's trying desperately to reinvent itself.

And even if the kids do eventually develop, a lot of the same problems will persist. The Rockies spent all that money on several injured starters and a late career Kris Bryant who won't stay healthy. They have all that dedicated roster space and basically have to hope everyone else is cheap. I have no idea what this rotation will look like next year, because while most of these guys are sticking around, it's unclear who'll be healthy. Will Senza or Marquez be back? Will Feltner be ready? Or will it just be another steep drop-off?

At the very least, this tiered development strategy will ensure that the lineup eventually replenishes and that we get a fuller, more impressive Rockies team. It just may not happen overnight.

Coming Tonight: Dude just won his 150th game, and has finally managed to find his mojo again.