Barrels Away

 

As it stands right now, the Guardians are in sole possession of the last AL Wild Card spot. They face opposition from the Blue Jays, Rangers and Orioles, but are two games ahead. If the season ended today they'd be in, and they'd have to face the White Sox, which honestly tracks. All they have to do is keep the same pace, stave off the other stragglers, and capitalize on another low-key but still strong season.

Except the Guardians, just from their last few games, seem more inclined to just make this as tense and close as possible. They're 5-5 in September already, and that includes some really rough losses to the Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. Yesterday against the Orioles, Foster Griffin got absolutely annihilated by the O's contact game, and the team could never fully recover. The Twins, spoilery but calming down, are next, followed by the White Sox. Already this was not going to be easy, but arguably the Guardians have made things much harder on themselves.

The Foster Griffin thing, I mean...on paper he's a nice pickup, he did well enough in Washington, but the difference between being the best pitcher on a bad team and the fifth-best pitcher on a good team is STAGGERING. In 7 Cleveland starts, he's got a 5.94 ERA, a -0.4 WAR and 30 Ks. He's technically putting in nice work, but that last start was a huge hit to his strong-enough run. It hasn't helped that Joey Cantillo has only gotten better since Griffin came over, and now has a 4 ERA. Bibee's certainly struggled, he's 5-15 with a 4.22 ERA, but his WHIP is low enough, and his numbers are impressive enough, that nobody's really sounding the alarm. And the other two are excellent, but of course they are. Parker Messick may get Cy Young votes this year with his 5.3 WAR and his 2.5 ERA, and Gavin Williams currently leads the league in strikeouts with 228, meaning he somehow managed to slide past Dylan Cease for that, and hopefully will continue to.

Still, I'll give the Guardians credit for bringing in the exact correct people to bolster the offense. Jo Adell was a big swing that's paid off, with 4 homers and 24 RBIs in 33 games. Adell has immediate fans in Cleveland, as one would expect, and the power numbers and defense have helped. Nathaniel Lowe has been a very nice, steady power corner with 5 homers and 21 RBIs. I kinda wish Manzardo were doing well enough that he'd be the guy, but Lowe's always helpful. The promotion of Angel Genao has been nice because defensively he's wonderful and he's got some contact perks. And somehow Patrick Bailey has been the answer at catcher, after so many different options since Yan Gomes. Austin Hedges is a good inoffensive backup, but Bailey is capable of being the hero, and has been as such multiple times since coming over. Bailey has 7 homers and 29 RBIs in 71 games, which isn't bad at all. In a season where Kwan and Ramirez are shakier than usual, this team needed the all hands on deck lineup mentality, and Bailey, Lowe and Adell being here cements that.

I still see this team as a playoff team, and I think they have what it takes to outweigh the opposition, but those losses have stung, as they have all year. And they need to avoid silly, exhausting moments like that weighing them down, because if not, anyone else can take advantage. The Rangers looked good today, the Orioles are looking better, it's still not a done deal. The Guardians need to remember that when they bobble a win late. 

Coming Tomorrow- His 2025 season was revelatory, a needed rise to help an aspiring competitor. His 2026 season has been less consistent but he's still helping a lot.

Frequent Shoppers

 
Right now is the Rays-Braves series, a series between two teams who are in 1st place, and would both like to remain in first place. Honestly if they're jogging in place this series to ensure they both don't really change pace at all, don't be shocked.

It's nice, because both of these teams were responsible for some of the most savvy deadline deals of the year. The Rays inquired about Liam Hicks, as the Marlins had 2 other catchers, and a deal was worked out, and suddenly the Rays got to add one of the best contact hitters in the game. Hicks has been a smashing success, hitting .313 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Hicks is lethal against righties, he's not a bad catcher and he's easy to fit into the lineup. The Rays already have Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero in their arsenal, and Hicks has made them even stronger. I caught him homering last month, that was pretty nice. Also I love the players' weekend canada catcher's gear he had, that was really cool. The Rays have Hicks as the primary catcher and Nick Fortes as the secondary with defensive perks. That seems to be working.

Meanwhile, the Braves needed pitching help, got turned down by Jacob deGrom, and took a flyer on Tyler Mahle, who's been good but is always injury-prone. The Giants bit, and while the Mahle deal seemed odd at first, it made more sense the more games Mahle saw in Atlanta. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.24 ERA, a 1.5 WAR, 35 Ks and 2 wins. A lot of the Braves starters this year, in lieu of the young talent that was supposed to be here, have been craftsman, veterans and tricksters, and to have an actual strong, hard-throwing pitcher again is nice. It can't all be the Chris Sale show, he needed another real arm, and Mahle is that. The move was made to strengthen the rotation, and Mahle very much did, even if A.J. Smith Shawver hasn't been very good recently. 

And it's the little moves as well that have been impressive for both teams. Brent Suter's been used by the Braves in long relief and has been wonderful, with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings. Similarly, Tyler Wells was brought on by the Rays to be a 2-inning guy, and he's been great, with a 2-0 record, a 1.69 ERA and 16 Ks in as many innings. The only real sour note has been Freddy Peralta, and even HE'S given the Rays some nice starts after his rough early period wrapped up. He's not Brewers good, but he appears to be building, and I think he's capable of some nice October starts.

Both teams are on a pretty decent trajectory at the moment. The Rays are having some trouble, and have the Yankees coming up from behind, but have Caminero sailing and the bench providing excellent support. They have to play the Astros next [after they're done making things easier for the Braves], and that should be interesting. The Braves, after splitting the Phils series, are on slightly thinner ice, and now have the Phils again once they're done with the Rays. Acuna may be riding high after those late theatrics this weekend, but Olson's struggling, Dubon's errors are adding up, and the black hole at shortstop isn't getting any fuller. Both of these teams will still make the playoffs with ample seeds, but they need to ensure that after this series, the slipping stops and the division title can be brought home. It won't be easy, but they've made enough of the rest of this season.

Coming Tonight: The Guardians have needed catching help for years. I did not think this would be the solution. 

Easy Street

Here is a list of teams the Dodgers have left to play in 2026. The Reds, the Marlins, the Giants and the Padres. That's two noncompetitive teams, one mostly noncompetitive team, and a team on the bubble that the Dodgers have no problem beating when it means something. Now, for comparison's sake, the only tough teams the Padres have to face are the Dodgers and D-Backs, while the D-Backs have the Rangers, Yankees and Padres on the docket. Curiously all three NL West teams have games against the Marlins this month.

So look, do the Dodgers have THE easiest schedule of the competitors? No. But it's up there. The object is to get to the finish line without getting embarrassed by any of these teams, and getting a decent enough seed [the 1 is still in play, despite the Brewers working like hell to prevent this]. There is just one issue, and that is the Dodgers are in danger of losing Shohei Ohtani. They just announced he won't pitch again this season. Normally they'd do this as a dramatic gambit to set up a big final act, but no, he's done, he's focusing on hitting. And he should be, because that part seems to be falling off a bit. He's down to .277, with ONLY a .902 OPS, and ONLY 30 homers. The closest thing to a human year Ohtani's had since before the breakout in Anaheim, 2021-ish. He's missed a lot of games in the past week, and he's 2 for his last 18 at-bats with no extra base hits. Something's wrong, and the team can only stay so afloat without him.

Stranger still, the saga of Kyle Tucker's overblown market continues, as the outfielder might not even be an outfield starter in the playoffs. They might honestly need him, especially if Pages is gonna miss some games, but the way he's hitting is not at all what they signed him for. He's played in virtually every game but is hitting .221 with 12 homers, 59 RBIs and a .671 OPS. His WAR is at -0.1. Genuinely, Tucker has not been this pitiful since his 'struggling for playing time' days in the late 2010s in Houston. pretty much every season since he's gone from 4 to 6 WAR, and this season is a very odd outlier, a heartbreaking one. I don't know if it's him or it's LA or what's going on, but I do recall a sharp drop-off in the second half of last season, and it may have just continued. Still, that dead weight in addition to the lack of Ohtani help has been a huge hit to this team.

And yet...they keep winning. By the strength of their schedule, and the weakness of their opponents, they just keep winning. 

It's funny, last year around this time we were all going 'well Blake Snell's a waste of money if he's not gonna be healthy', and that's not really the case at all, because when he is healthy he's still excellent. So far in 6 starts this season, Snell's 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 43 Ks. Vintage Snell, for sure. Glasnow's been pretty decent too since coming back, he's 4-0 with a 3 ERA in 10 starts. Emmet Sheehan just had a really nice start this past week once it became do or die time with all the rotation vacancies. Skull's looking like himself, with a 3 ERA, 48 Ks and a 1.116 WHIP in 7 starts. And then Yamamoto you never really have to worry about, he's simply one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and he makes it look so easy. This is his third season and every one of them has been a gem. 

I still think the lineup schematic could be tricky if Ohtani isn't 100%, and some of the usual players [Hernandez, Muncy, Smith] are slowing down, but this Dodgers team is so well built that even this might only be a scratch. Obviously it's more interesting if someone else gets to win this time around, but will the Dodgers even let them? Is that even a possibility?

Coming Tomorrow- A Canadian legend already, and one of the best contact hitters in baseball at the moment. 

Short Supply

 

My constant disgust towards the Astros means nothing. The more spiteful I get, the more they figure out how to win games. They're two games over .500, flinging around the Phils' pitching this week, waiting for the Rangers or somebody to catch up when it probably isn't gonna happen. Unless somebody stops them, they're winning the AL West in a year where barely anyone in it's getting a passing grade. I don't know if that's something to be proud of, but for the Astros a win's a win. In another universe Alvarez still gets a triple crown on a losing team, but I guess it's all that much sweeter that they're winning. 

Jose Altuve...he's just as infuriating to talk about as the rest of the Astros. The last two seasons, he has not done a damned thing in relation to the team's success. You could argue that since 2023 he's been replacement level, as he turned into more of a power guy than a pure contact guy, his defense sank and now he's kind of just an inessential veteran. He has 15 homers and 44 RBIs, but he hit 77 RBIs last year, so we know he can do better. He's 36, slowly reaching the end of what will probably be a Hall of Fame career [and let me be clear, I wouldn't vote for him because I don't reward cheaters], and doesn't have a ton left to contribute. This is the point where guys like Alvarez, Pena, Walker and Smith can carry the load, but he's still gonna persist, because he's Jose Altuve, and he's gonna be an Astro as long as he can manage it. His next hit, which has probably happened by the time of posting, will be number 2500, and 3000 is technically within reach because of the strength of those first several seasons. Obviously he's a great player, I'll just never respect him. 

He's such a minuscule part of this team that there isn't much to be dragged down. The rotation's figured things out, Brown, Lambert, Wesneski and Javier seem to be on a nice pace right now. Ethan Pecko's getting the 5 spot, and he's not terrific but he's getting the job done. Josh Hader's been phenomenal in the ninth, and seems to be back to where he was before the injury [again, written before Phils game was over]. Smith is hitting, Paredes and Pena are hitting, Daulton Varsho went yard against the Phils [the team that was supposed to trade for him], Yainer Diaz is finding his swing, and Alvarez, while being eclipsed for the home run lead by Junior Caminero, is still looking for history, and is very close to attaining it. I say let him, he's a fearsome hitter with so much ability, and it's been years since the last triple crown. If it was Altuve I'd be mad, but Alvarez is so good you can't even be that disappointed. 

The Astros have two real tasks going forward. One is winning the division, which should be easy enough if the Rangers keep forgetting they can still take it. The other is actually standing a chance against wild card competitors with better records. The idea is they'd likely play the sixth seed, which would be any combination of the Jays, Guardians, O's, Rangers, whoever's left standing there. The old Astros would be a menace no matter the seed. I don't know about this Astros team yet. They had a lead against the Phils, it got thinner as the game went on. They still won but it got dangerously close. Remember when these guys could no-hit Philadelphia? I don't know if this team can do that anymore. I think they're lucky, and streaky, but I don't know if they have it to go deep this year.

Then again these jerks have proven me wrong before. So who knows?

Coming Tonight: 2 Cy Youngs, a lot of money, and miraculously some classic stuff looking for that second ring. 

The Edge of Their Seeds

 

The Brewers currently have the best record in the NL, and in baseball, and could very well have a higher seed than the Dodgers once the playoffs begin. However, the Dodgers have one of the easiest schedules in baseball this month, and barely have to play any teams over .500, while the Brewers still have to play the Cubs and Phillies, as well as spoilery teams like the Orioles and Cardinals. Therefore...clearly the Dodgers are the preferred frontrunners. That being said, the Dodgers don't have Shohei Ohtani at 100% right now, and the Brewers seem to only be getting stronger with time.

I think it's a little worrying that the wins are trailing off slightly. They were able to keep leverage against the Cubs to start out, and look to keep doing that [especially with the pitching], but they're in a more precarious position than they were. Kyle Harrison's fatigued now, clearly. He keeps getting lit up in starts, and we can't even blame Vegas anymore. The deadline acquisitions [Dustin May, Antonio Senzatela and Jojo Romero] have not been up to snuff. Even Miz got rocked a little in the past week. Grant Anderson just hit the IL, Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich are fairly mediocre, and now the league lead is around a game. And the Dodgers have to play the the Reds right now.

I still think the Brewers have the edge though. Everything the Dodgers claim they are, an unparalleled barrel of talent, the Brewers actually are. Bringing up Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara, and having both of them fit perfectly while also inspiring Joey Ortiz and Sal Frelick to start playing better, is incredible. Pratt is one of many sure thing prospects, and despite missing time he's hitting .275 with 3 homers and 29 RBIs, plus 13 steals, in 59 games. It's a bright start for the 21-year-old, who's probably gonna have shortstop going forward. Luis Lara, meanwhile, is unparalleled defensively and has a nice mean streak offensively, with 21 RBIs in 49 games. He was smoking the minors, maybe he'll start ramping up a little more. I don't know what that means for Mitchell or Frelick, but the depth is certainly a good thing. Also really good to have two excellent options at first. Bauers is still a top-tier hitter statistically, and Vaughn's a .300 hitter with less power perks and more pure contact ability. And they've got Gary Sanchez against lefties and David Hamilton as a utility man, not even going into Turang and Chourio on top of their game. There is so much going on in this lineup that even a Dodgers team might not be able to stop all of it this year.

I think the postseason rotation situation could be a little worrying if Harrison's acting up. Might be as simple as Miz-Henderson-Drohan, but you might need a larger sample size from Drohan in order to be alright with him there. If not, you just hope Harrison rebounds I guess? Or else it's Bobby Gasser, which could be brilliant or could be a recipe for disaster, you're never sure. At least the bullpen's pretty trustworthy, that's a start. 

I dunno, I still like the Brewers' odds. I don't know if the top seed is guaranteed anymore, but I think they could find their 2025 postseason momentum and make another strong run. They're still very much in the thick of their prime competitive run, and they're only gonna get better once Made and Williams are up, so if they go all the way now, they may not stop there. For a team that's never won, that's a very cool prospect.

Coming Tomorrow- One of my least favorite players in the game. Cause he's that good, and cause he's that bad.

Wish Granted

 

I want to make it clear that, as there's still 19 games left, it's still not definite that the White Sox are going to win the AL Central. The Guardians are still actively chasing them, and are a very good team, and could sweep in late and grab the division. Considering the competition in the AL Wild Card race, if they don't win the division, it's curtains. So the White Sox, who are facing a lot of okay but still spoilery teams in the next week or so [Pirates, Cardinals, Tigers] in addition to the Guards themselves, need to keep on a roll in order for this to happen.

But. If it does happen...wouldn't that be awesome? 

I kind of want this for the White Sox. They put together a team in the late 2010s/early 2020s that was a competitor, and it did absolutely nothing so they gutted everything, were the butt of the league for two years, and now they're in position to win the division and make the playoffs as a three seed, meaning they could get further than the Renteria/LaRussa teams did. I really want that to happen. Let LaRussa sit in shame as the team he messed up ascends to glory. 

And obviously, the White Sox haven't made it easy for themselves. They have Luis Castillo every 5 games, and he's really not the guy he once was with Cincinnati and Seattle. They lost Davis Martin and hopefully have a better version of him back. They were without Munetaka Murakami's home runs for a while [thankfully he just hit his 30th]. They still don't have a viable answer at catcher despite Edgar Quero doing everything he can to move the needle. And most of their savvy pickups, like Huascar Brazoban, Brenton Doyle and Luisangel Acuna, really haven't done much. Yet here they are, still competing and still looking great.

Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Tristan Peters, Chase Meidroth and Murakami have made this a surprisingly incredible offensive bunch, with 3 guys with over 70 RBIs and 3 guys with 30 homers. Vargas quieted skeptics [mostly me] by becoming a really impressive everyday option at the plate. Montgomery is still a home run machine with great versatility. Andrew Benintendi can still hit for power even if the range is gone. Tristan Peters is doing better as a former Savannah Banana in the MLB than most former XFL players have done in the NFL. The hitting is pretty incredible, and could be a difference maker given some playoff schematics.

But the team's just run more efficiently than most White Sox teams that have gotten close. I'm really impressed by this bullpen, lined with working, young options that have kept moving. Grant Taylor, at 24, is the primary closing option, and he's got a 2.16 ERA with 97 Ks and 8 steals. Sean Newcomb has been terrific as the overall relief specialist, with a 2.42 ERA in 82 innings. Bryan Hudson's had a terrific comeback year after spinning out in Milwaukee. Trevor Richards has turned into a halfway decent swingman. And now Hagen Smith has been added to the equation as a high-leverage reliever, and he's only given up 1 earned run in 16 innings. I have no idea if the idea is stretching Smith out to start next year, but he's very good in this role, and if it keeps him on a postseason roster, so be it. Additionally, Martin-Burke-Kay is a pretty strong postseason rotation, even if it's not THE strongest in the AL. Worst comes to worse, Castillo does long relief. 

I'm really liking how this White Sox team is shaping up, and I really think they could make something happen this year, after so many miserable years. This is what the rebuild was for, an efficient version of the White Sox, and I hope it leads to something great.

Coming Tonight: A huge rookie for the Brewers. You know, to harken the eventual appearance of like 4 more huge Brewers rookies. 

Ending With Dignity, Mets Style

 

I think, just generally, the Mets look a little closer to a good team than they did during the heat of this season. Now, granted, that doesn't mean they're an actual good team, but...it means it's no longer embarrassing. 

It's funny, I was in New York on Saturday midday, and I was headed to the shuttle between times square and grand central, as one does, and I did see some Mets fans heading back from the 7. It was bobblehead day. That's always cool. I was at Pete Alonso bobblehead day in Baltimore earlier this year, that was 100% the place to be. I just looked up who the bobblehead at Citifield was of on Saturday. It was a special U.S. Open themed Mrs. Met bobblehead.

So let's recap. Prior to the season, the Mets bring on Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and rookie Carson Benge, and by September, all they can muster is a bobblehead of their mascot to commemorate a sporting event that happens next door every year anyway? Or maybe it was one of Peralta, Robert or Weaver, and the pre-made bobbleheads are already being melted down and made into next year's bound-for-the-resale-market Luis Torrens bobblehead giveaway. I was in a Greenwich, CT thrift store earlier this year, which is a lot like a McDonalds in a sports stadium I reckon, and they had a Mark Vientos Mets bobblehead, from weeks earlier, there for 15 dollars. And even if Swaggy V would rebound in May...15 was still asking way too much for Vientos. 15 would honestly be asking too much for a Bo one too.

Anyhow, the Mets are beginning to turn things around by installing the next phases of the rebuild, which is working a lot better than all those contracts did. Jonah Tong was on the mound today, and seemed to silence the Marlins pretty well. He might be a little more ready than he was on prior MLB call-ups. If he's good for the long haul, then he, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton might be sneakily becoming a nightmare waiting to happen. Thornton is putting up perfectly fine numbers as a four man, a 3.53 ERA, a 1.191 WHIP and a 1.5 WAR, but that's how guys like Wheeler and Matz started as well. McLean has looked a ton better in weeks' past, and is looking to end the season with his ERA around 3. Christian Scott is looking insanely durable since TJ surgery, and has a full season of strong work under his belt. Sean Manaea has one more year left on the deal, and hopefully his 2027 is way better than his last two seasons. But that young core could be the next step to legitimacy, and certainly has been lately. Also, Nate Lavender's been incredible as a bullpen piece, and arguably so was Jefry Yan. 

The idea for 2027 will be finding what from this shipwreck of a team is salvageable going forward. Obviously the outfield's staying as it is- Soto-Ewing-Benge is a working model that's been very successful this year, and will be going forward. Obviously shortstop is non-negotiable, and the catching platoon I assume isn't going anywhere either. Semien is signed for another 2 years, so either they trade that or they eat it and DH him. Bichette's gonna get low-balled in free agency, and I'm not sure if New York's the answer for him right now. Polanco is expected to stick around but I guess he'll be a DH/part time guy. And then Jared Young worked this year but he's 31 and very much a replacement-level option so I don't think he's the long-term solution for the Pete Alonso problem. This is where a successful Ronny Mauricio would have helped, but alas. Vientos and Baty SHOULD be holding up the corners but they keep refusing to!

I think the Mets should ride out the mess for one more year, let a few guys leave in free agency, let this core sail and allow for successors at 1st, 2nd and 3rd to materialize, and hope it gets them somewhere higher than fifth. A lot works about this team, there was just this inescapable sag this year, and hopefully in 2027 they'll outrun it.

Coming Tomorrow- A relief specialist who probably didn't expect to be staring down an October berth this year.