Paperweight Beats Rock

 

The Minnesota Twins really just won a series against the Yankees in the Bronx. And honestly, somehow, they deserved to.

It's been no secret that since mid-June the Yankees have been spiraling out of control. In fact, I may have been in attendance for the last time the Yankees actually felt like a dominant winning team, their excellent shutout of the Reds. Immediately after that they've lost all direction. The team's stopped hitting, management keeps sending down players who are doing well because they've got options left, Gerrit Cole keeps giving up runs, and the absence of Judge is feeling more and more evident. Ben Rice initially looked like he'd fill that void, but since that Reds game where he had a 3-run shot, he's been hitting .135 with 7 hits, 3 home runs and 15 strikeouts. The whole team's gone cold, including him. So us losing another series? Why not at this rate.

But the Twins?? On paper you'd think they were directionless, but somehow they've become one of the sneakiest bad teams in baseball. They're not supposed to compete, but they're skirting through the middle of the AL Central, hanging around .500, winning big against great teams solely because they can. They are without Ryan Jeffers right now, and the fear is that they're about to lose Byron Buxton to a hip issue [because that man couldn't be any more cursed]. But barring that they've had a really surprising lineup, filled with guys like Luke Keaschall, Kody Clemens, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee and Trevor Larnach, who aren't burning the house down but are providing steady work. They've even got Josh Bell bringing his usual brand of cheesy power, with 13 homers and 59 RBIs, meaning there's an outside chance Bell nabs a 100 RBI year. I'm not sure if he'll finish it with the Twins, but considering he only has one to date, it'd be a pretty cool achievement. 

The Twins are not a better baseball team than the Yankees, but right now only one of these teams has any spark or unpredictability, and it's not the friggin Yankees. The Twins have guys that you're gonna underestimate and they make you pay anyway. Keaschall and Lee have been so hot recently that they're both on my fantasy team. Ryan Kreisler has 5 homers and 23 RBIs as a bench bat. Alex Jackson is somehow hitting .300 as a backup. They're getting quality starts from Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews and Mike Paredes, who are mostly around to fill in for Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel and Bailey Ober and eat innings. Matthews is looking the most MLB-ready yet, and despite a 4.43 ERA has a 1.164 WHIP. Yoendrys Gomez went from a roster hanger-onner to an MLB closer. There's genuine unpredictability to this team, and it's very much appreciated. The Yankees are what you see. Ryan Weathers and Will Warren are gonna get up there and strike you out but leave homer possibilities on the table, so of course you go for it. Jazz Chisholm's gonna make an error or strike out 3 times. Camilo Doval's gonna shit the bed. I'm not saying we're always gonna be this predictable, but we were this series, and the Twins took advantage.

The Twins have the Guardians and Angels up next before the break, and because of the jester's privilege they've received in the AL, no matter how these series' go it might not even matter. They may sell, but I don't even think they'll need to sell Buxton or Ryan. They may just gestate as a spoiler the whole rest of the year. Meanwhile, the Yankees need to get to a point where they're not being tripped up by someone like the Twins. 

Coming Tonight: A young infielder who seems to finally be getting some ample battery-mates.

Closing Bell

 

So now that the Nationals have absolutely nothing left to prove and are throwing out Daylen Lile and Andrew Alvarez just to keep the lights on, NOW is the time that Josh Bell starts hitting. That'll help!

Josh Bell has this uncanny ability to absolutely take off late in a season, typically for a competitor, regardless of whether or not he was doing anything in the first half. It happened in 2023 with the Marlins, he came to Miami and hit .270 with 11 homers and 26 RBIs, sparking a playoff spot. It happened last year with the Diamondbacks, where Bell put on a clinic subbing for Christian walker, hitting .279 with 5 homers and 22 RBIs in 41 games. And now it's happened in Washington, despite the Nats having been eliminated from playoff contention like a month ago.

It's as simple as this: Josh Bell had a .678 OPS during the 1st half and a .814 OPS during the second half. It's not gonna go down as one of his best power seasons, but it's been more power than a lot of Nationals in the past two months. Bell will finish the season with 20+ homers and 60+ RBIs, which isn't bad. It's not like his 2023 for the Nats, but he's also been far worse for other teams admittedly. They got him to be a power bat, a veteran DH, and he's done what they signed him to do. Compare that to Joc Pederson, who got more money to hit .180, and there's no contest. 

Ultimately, the star of the show right now for the Nats have been rookies. Daylen Lile's been heating up recently, and is hitting .292 with 9 triples and 6 homers, a very impressive ratio. Crews seems to be hitting now, even if his first half stats are gonna kill his cumulative season. Clayton Beeter has been a steal of a throw-in, as he, along with P.J. Poulin, has provided more bullpen stability than they've had all year. And Andrew Alvarez has been excellent in his first three starts, with a 1.15 ERA and a 0.8 WAR. It doesn't make up for the amount of dead weight this team has carried, but at least the dominoes are still being laid out for a better year. 

If they can get a full year of Wood, Crews, Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Lile and Alvarez performing at their peaks, this might not be as depressing of a team. But a lot has to be strung together, rather than a series of one-man teams. And I don't know how far away the Nats are from that.

Coming Tonight: A rookie catcher for the White Sox. No, not that one.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Diamondbacks

 

[I'm gonna post about the other thing later today. For now, I've gotta do the Year by Year post. We'll talk betrayal later on.]

It still baffles me that with everything the Arizona Diamondbacks were able to put together, especially over the last few months, they still wound up missing the playoffs. I'd say they were a way more worthy playoff team than Atlanta this year. They still went 89-73, which was a better record than three different AL playoff teams, and had an incredible July-August run that was only topped by their own competitors the Padres. They were very good, they were just unlucky. Some piled up losses from a period of the season where some of their best players were hurt cost them glory this year.

In 2023, you can argue that the factor that kept them from winning a ring was the fact that their rotation depth was infuriatingly limited. They had Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, the sudden rise of Brandon Pfaadt, and that was basically it. So for 2024, the D-Backs signed two proven starters, and...not only did they struggle with consistency and injuries, but Gallen and Kelly got hurt too. Which left Pfaadt as one of the few D-Backs starters to go the whole season without getting hurt. In a full season of work, Pfaadt was a bit more humbled by opposing offenses, but stood his ground and came off as a durable workhorse. In 32 games he went 11-10 with a 4.71 ERA and a team leading 185 strikeouts. In a season where so many young pitchers have gotten hurt after getting to the league, Pfaadt stayed strong through a tumultuous Diamondbacks season.

2025 Prediction: Well this would be a funny time to get hurt, right? No, honestly I think he'll have a lower ERA but miss a month of playing time.

Ryne Nelson, one of the more troubled starters of 2023 for the D-Backs, wound up starting a ton of games this year as well due to the rotation vacancies. I would say that Nelson's 2024 was not only an improvement, but the fullest taste of his repertoire yet. In 28 games, 25 of them starts, Nelson went 10-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 126 Ks. He proved he can be a strong fill-in when needed, but can also continue to role-play if pressed.

2025 Prediction: Mostly appears in long relief, though I think he'll start at least 20 games because of all the turnovers.

Jordan Montgomery arrived D-Backs training camp late after tense deliberations with Scott Boras, who Montgomery later fired. That, coupled with some lingering injury issues after two straight consistent campaigns, tanked Gumby's season before it began. This was ultimately not going to be peak Montgomery, much like the wait to sign ruined Blake Snell's season [til he got it going midyear]. In 25 games, Montgomery went 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA and 81 earned runs. He'd be moved to the bullpen for four games. Ultimately, Montgomery declined the option and looks to reinvent himself going forward.

2025 Prediction: I actually see a Cardinals reunion happening, and I see it going about as well as it did in 2022. 

Geraldo Perdomo, en route to a 3.4 WAR season despite missing 60 games, was hurt for a solid stretch of the year, meaning shortstop was wide open in Arizona. Having foolishly dealt away Nick Ahmed the year before, the nearest option was former Pirates and Reds middle infielder Kevin Newman, who hadn't been terrific in a few years. This, ultimately, was Newman's best season since 2019, as he hit .278 with 80 hits in 111 games, plus some excellent defensive SS, ensuring that the position accounted for 5.7 WAR combined [meaning we're talking about a 12.5 WAR DP combo this year]. He made for a decent enough depth piece upon Perdomo's return, but I really don't think they survive the summer without him.

2025 Prediction: I don't think Newman will deliver anything as big as his 2024 first half, but I think he'll be efficient and low-key for whoever he suits up for next.

Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk, who's on team #5, had HIS best season since 2018 after getting an everyday gig filling in for various OF pieces. He hit .291 with 12 homers and 46 RBIs in 106 games, at last proving he can be a consistent lineup presence again, even as a replacement pick. 

2025 Prediction: Is an Opening Day starter with a team that needs OF help/is waiting for an OF prospect to bloom.

In a season where A.J. Puk, Ben Joyce, Aroldis Chapman and Mason Miller revitalized the status of the 100mph reliever, the D-Backs had an entry of their own. Justin Martinez debuted late last year, and struggled to find his control in 10 games. In 2024, Martinez was the most utilized bullpen piece, and not just because of his high heat. In 64 games he had a 2.48 ERA and 91 Ks, plus 8 saves from the tail end of the year. I think this team sees the future of the ninth with this guy, and I think he can deliver on that promise...for a bit anyway.

2025 Prediction: 25+ saves. I think the strain of 2024 may catch up to him at some point.

So the D-Backs struck out with Jordan Montgomery. Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a longer contract, didn't fare much better. After missing four months with injuries, Rodriguez appeared in 10 games for Arizona, and went 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA. With Rodriguez, you get seasons like this, but they come in between gold, and I think that's what the D-Backs are banking on.

2025 Prediction: Like clockwork, a 5 WAR season.

I don't think the D-Backs have figured out exactly what to do with Pavin Smith. They tried starting him in 2022, it wasn't great. He missed swaths of the last two seasons due to inefficiency. He's not good enough at either OF or 1B to warrant an everyday position, and there's better options at DH this year. So this year, Smith was relegated to a bench spot, and somehow that kinda worked. In 60 games he hit .270 with 9 homers and 36 RBIs, and down the stretch he was very useful, if...still limited.

2025 Prediction: I don't think he finishes the season with the team, but it won't be without some fun moments.

Right at the end of July, Christian Walker gets hurt, which is something that could be a setback for this team. Their star 1B is down, and their next-nearest option is...as discussed, not a defensive genius. So the D-Backs trade for Josh Bell. It's a ballsy move, getting an out-and-out rental, especially if you're giving up Deyvison de los Santos, who's supposed to be a mammoth hitter. But Bell did exactly what was asked of him, and filled in very well for Walker. In 41 games, he hit .279 with 5 homers and 22 RBIs, a line nobody could be too dissatisfied with. 

2025 Prediction: Bell has played for six teams in three seasons. Team #7 will be the closest thing to a keeper of the bunch [at this rate it'll be the Mets], and he'll give them a surprise 30-homer year.

And also in the mix of the D-Backs/Marlins swappage, A.J. Puk, who'd struggled out of a starting role in Miami, wound up in Phoenix as well. When no one expected him to, Puk put together an extraordinary season, with a 1.32 ERA and 43 Ks in 30 games. Puk brought this team dominance, consistency and pure heat, which is what he'd been teased to provide for years. 

2025 Prediction: Perhaps a little more human, but I think the D-Backs are gonna be his team for a bit.

Coming Tomorrow- Surprisingly there are a lot of Dodgers members I didn't get to during October.

The 'So Close' Response

 
Two of the most inexplicably exciting stories heading into the 2023 postseason concerned the Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins had just lost their marquee players and were starting over with a mixture of homegrown guys and contracts, including recently-traded-for Josh Bell and Jake Burger. The Reds were once the butt of the league and were slowly coming back, thanks to their incredible youth movement and players like Elly de la Cruz, Andrew Abbott and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Both seemed like fun playoff spoilers in a field of potential juggernauts. In all actuality, the Reds petered off before the end of September and the Marlins were faced with a three game series against the unstoppable Phillies home crowd. 

So going into 2024, with the scales sort of refreshed and both clubs wiser, we get the rebuttal. 

The Marlins technically have the most to draw from, as they actually did make the playoffs, and finished with the same record as the eventual NL Champion Diamondbacks. They also suffered the most immediate loss, with not only key players like Jorge Soler, Dylan Floro, Joey Wendle and Garrett Hampson leaving in transactions, but Sandy Alcantara, the staff ace, looking to skip the season entirely. 

As a result, the Marlins' rotation is a bit shakier than it has any reason to be. The team seems to be set with Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and the newly-promoted A.J. Puk at the head of the rotation, but with Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez struggling with injuries, the back half seems murky at best. The idea is to go with organizational options like Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer, but those two especially have struggled at the MLB level recently. You also have to remember that Sixto Sanchez is actually healthy this year, and has been ramping up to return to the majors again, but the plan with him right now seems to use him as a bullpen piece, which...fine, be anticlimactic. The bottom line is that the Marlins' rotation is concerningly uneven, and with the team lacking the sufficient funds to go out and grab somebody like, at the very least, Michael Lorenzen, this is gonna be what they go with for a bit.

The good news is that the lineup itself could be enough to not completely bottom out in April. Josh Bell, Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez are looking at great years. Nick Gordon, Dane Myers and Jon Berti have looked hot out of camp. And the new additions like Tim Anderson, Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Brujan do point towards some intriguing developments this year. I'm not wholly convinced on them til something entirely clicks with this version of the team, but they could definitely do some damage.

On the other hand, the Reds seem to have solved their biggest problem from 2023: pitching. Last year their pitching options were so unreliable that they were dipping into the back shelves of their starting development. Everybody got hurt, the people they brought up to replace them got hurt, and that factor doomed them towards the stretch. So it's the opposite of the Marlins: they're going from injury disasters to durability. Which is a nice look for them.

The Reds' potential rotation seems to be Greene-Lodolo-Ashcraft-Montas-Abbott. There's still other names floating around the outsides, like Brandon Williamson and Nick Martinez, but those five seem to be the answers this year. And if all of them stay healthy? Damn. 

Granted, it seems to be a lot to ask for a lot of these guys, especially Montas, who appeared in New York so sparingly since the 2022 trade from Oakland that I don't think I ever really got used to him in pinstripes. If Montas somehow strings together a great campaign for the Reds...well good for him. Ashcraft is coming off an injury-plagued campaign, but he seems to have his stuff again; same with Lodolo, who's ramping back up. Greene and Abbott hopefully will provide some stability this year, and I really don't want to see them hit the IL with how hard they're throwing.

The best thing you can say about the Reds this year is that they've overprepared. They have multiple valid answers at most positions, and have a flexible lineup where they can succeed in multiple different ways. The key example concerns Matt McLain, who's not definite for Opening Day. If he's out for a bit, the Reds have Jonathan India and Elly de la Cruz at both his positions. You're still great there. It honestly surprised me, by the way, that the Reds re-signed India, as it seemed like the young infield was evolving without the need for him, but they've used India and Jeimer Candelario as ways to buttress the infield while filling things in over time with the kids. They're also phasing Spencer Steer into an outfield role if CES wants to play 1st, which could be the way. 

The other issue is T.J. Friedl, who could be out for a bit with a recently-surfaced injury. Alright, then the outfield's Will Benson-Jake Fraley-Steer. That's still pretty good. Maybe a little lacking in versatility but still very good. There are enough backups that are still A options that the Reds don't entirely worry me this year. They've prepared for so many outcomes, and have enough young guys to still look intimidating for a while after this year. Heck, even Noelvi Marte getting busted for PEDs didn't worry me, as that...takes out a 3rd base option, and he'd have been, like, 3rd in line anyhow.

The Reds are looking to make the leap, like the Orioles did last year, and I think they will in 2024. Hopefully they have better luck, and a stronger second half, this time around.

Wild Card Series' Day 2: Well, That Was Easy

 

I mean, I kinda assumed one of these Wild Card series' would go all three, but damn. Two days of games and we're out. Alright then. Makes it a lot easier.

I think the MLB guys knew that the Rangers-Rays series would have the most obvious outcome, which is why they played 'em so early. The Rangers came within inches of a division title, as did the Rays, but of the two teams that petered off after the first half, the Rangers still felt the most like a contender. Meanwhile, the Rays' starting pitching paled in comparison to the Rangers', and just putting up Nate Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, ironically two ex-Yankees, was enough to silence the Rays for good. The biggest takeaway from this wild card series was Evan Carter, the rookie who homered his way into legitimacy among Rangers fans, and made himself just another big part of the team's future. The Rangers may not meet with their sworn enemies immediately, but I see this Rangers-Orioles series being tough, potentially going all 5 games, and taking the most out of both teams. Honestly? The Rangers might be able to win this one, if the pitching stays as solid on their end.

The Twins winning rights two MLB wrongs. One is the obvious, giving them a series win for the first time in two decades. The other has been bugging me for years: the last time a central divisional team won a playoff series was 2019, and it was those stinking Cardinals. All of the 2020, 2021 and 2022 campaigns went without a single playoff series win by any of the ten teams from the central divisions. The 2019 Twins, 2020-21 White Sox, 2022 Guardians, and LITERALLY ALL FOUR CENTRAL TEAMS THAT MADE THE 2020 PLAYOFFS, could not advance. So having the Twins finally break that streak felt really good. 

It's also cool that somebody like Willi Castro got to play a big part in this win. The Twins have gotten material out of their stars, but they've let Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, Bailey Ober and Edouard Julien have their moments as well. This is a very fun Twins team, and them advancing was honestly a foregone conclusion after their September. I just hope they have enough to take down Houston. Could you IMAGINE an ALCS year for Minnesota? Wouldn't that be awesome??

The Diamondbacks taking their Wild Card series was one I sort of saw coming, even if I still figured the Brewers could sneak up when they least expected it. But somehow the Arizona bullpen shut these guys out in later innings, and the D-Backs lineup kept raining down on this once-strong Milwaukee team. Evan Longoria had the big moment last night, and tonight Tommy Pham brought in an RBI and cemented his place on this team. Pham's had a troubled few years, but I think he's evaded some of his rotten luck and is back to doing things right. 

The D-Backs will need a lot more of this luck to evade the Dodgers, who, like usual, seek to claim an easy playoff spot. I see a slight chance of an upset, but the D-Backs will have to work for it.

And, once again, we have the hometown team. I was a little nervous when Thomson put up Nola for this game, as he's only briefly shown true greatness this year. I shouldn't have worried. Nola went 7 strong without allowing any runs, and worked some true postseason magic while Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner and Stott made swiss cheese of the Marlins' pitching. Braxton Garrett getting lit up I could have guessed, but the bullpen as well? Andrew Nardi, who's been excellent this year? This team really is legit. 

The Phillies will need to hope lightning strikes twice against Atlanta. Miami was very much the easy part; the Braves have one of the most ferocious offenses in the majors, and while there is the factor of lessening momentum, which did cloud their September, the Braves still could be trouble. I could see this series going either way. I just want to believe the Phillies can make this happen. The stars look like they're aligning. They just need to keep fighting.

And as for the fallen:

The 2023 Rays team were...a Tampa Bay Rays team. They're all the same to me at this point. They all do the same things, use the same kinds of players, have the same issues. This year's had a ton more pitching injuries and the single most unfortunate thing to come out about a guy they have signed for 10 years. I assume there will be players traded this offseason to offset costs. Manny Margot, I hope you haven't signed a lease in St. Pete..

The one sad part of the Twins advancing is that the Jays, who will once again end their surefire playoff run right after it's started, still can't deliver on their promises. They have the team, they have the foundation, they certainly have the pitching...they just can't get it done. And yanking Jose Berrios, thereby undoing the thread that held this game together for the Jays, was the most heartbreaking part. Had he stayed in, there's a chance they would have legged it out.

I hope next year is the year things change. Though, again, if everybody in the AL East competes, it still could be very difficult for them. 

Similarly, since 2018 the Brewers haven't gotten anything done in October either, and this team, despite a strong regular season finish, fell to a wild card team, the only division leader this year to do so in this round. Sal Frelick was one of the few people that made me think the Brewers could make it close, as he contributed to an early offensive boost before the 5th and 6th innings. 

The Brewers need to ensure that the team consistently succeeds at the plate. Cause having 3 guys that can hit isn't gonna cut it going forward. Not when the Cubs and Reds also exist.

I genuinely thought the Marlins were gonna make it a 3-game series. Out of all of them. With Josh Bell hitting as well as he was, I thought they could drum something up against the bullpen. But with no Sandy Alcantara, no Eury Perez, and the feeling that something was missing from this lineup, there was no chance for them. Aside from Bell, no other Marlins really did anything too special this series, and it saddens me, because they looked so fun during the heat of the season.

It will be tough for the Marlins to try something like this again, but not impossible, especially if everyone stays healthy. 

So now we've got our division series' matchups. Some I think I can predict, some I don't want to even try. I just know they're gonna be interesting. The absolute worst case scenario is getting a boring outcome. We do not want Astros-Dodgers again, or even honestly Astros-Braves. I wanna see something I've never seen before. Two teams that haven't been here in a while, or have NEVER been here, and can make an entertaining, enjoyable World Series experience. I just hope that isn't too much to ask. 

Fiesta Burger

 

The Miami Marlins are 13-26 since the All-Star Break, and I bet they don't want you to know that. They bulked up at the trade deadline, farmed a great season out of Sandy Alcantara, still have an MVP candidate in Luis Arraez, and continue to be in the running for a wild card spot. They're just not the sure bet they were in June. But everything they've been doing involves making an effort to distract from that.

For instance: have you seen what the new power duo of Bell & Burger have been doing since landing in Miami? Isn't that cool?

I initially scoffed at the Marlins' belief that taking Josh Bell out of Cleveland would erase his struggles, but it really was as simple as that: in 23 games for the Marlins, Bell is hitting .276 with 24 hits, 13 RBIs and 8 homers. A lot like Amed Rosario, something just wasn't clicking for Bell this year in Cleveland, and it took a new environment and new stakes to get him back to what he did best. What's more, Bell joining Jorge Soler in the heart of the lineup does bring this team back to what they were trying to do a few years ago, just pack the team with one-dimensional power hitters just to make sure something happened. I mean, yes, gone are the days of Jesus Aguilar and Starlin Castro having to start, but Bell is a higher ticket version of that which seems to be paying off more. It is a shame that fellow outsourced power supplier Avisail Garcia hasn't been so lucky, but with de la Cruz and Sanchez guarding the outfield, it's not all bad.

Jake Burger has been even more important to this team, because while Arraez has acted as something of a central figure for the new contact hitting mentality of this team, Burger is a bigger step in the direction of lining the roster with trusted hitters. Like how Rizzo was just waiting for Bryant to show up, Burger seems to be what the Marlins needed, a phenomenal hitter in so many ways. So far Burger's hitting .333 with 29 hits, 11 RBIs and 2 homers. There hasn't been a great deal of the clutch abilities he regularly displayed in Chicago, but there's still time for that to show up. In any case, Burger's a vast improvement over Jean Segura, who was previously guarding third before being traded for Bell.

The chief foe of this Marlins team, honestly, has been scheduling. Since the start of August, the Marlins have had to play 7 straight competitive teams, and said rocky momentum cost them during a series against the Nats. And aside from more games against Washington this weekend, series' against the Rays, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers and Braves are all up ahead, meaning that unless the Marlins can somehow regain their killer June momentum, a competitive finish may be asking for too much. It's not a damning outcome for their status as a future playoff mainstay, but it may just doom what could have been a fun story for this year.

Coming Tomorrow- Out of absolutely nowhere, the Tigers most important player of 2023 just made his presence known.

Trade Deadline 2023: The Ones I Didn't Get

 I've already gone over the trade deadline deals I really liked, and some of the smaller ones that didn't make the list, but now it's time to discuss some of the other ones. The ones where, at the time the deal went out, I wasn't quite sure what the tactics were. My rule is if a deal doesn't need to be made, and if you're fine without making a deal, you shouldn't have to. There were too many trigger-happy GMs this deadline, and one of them was someone that has normally been very cautious. 

We've got a few of these to talk about, so let's dive in. The ones I didn't get, 2023 edition:

-Amed Rosario to the Dodgers, Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians

This was a deal, the likes of which we've seen many times, of two teams trading guys that just didn't work for each other. Rosario had some decent moments last year, but was nowhere near his Mets-era promise. Thor had some early magic but just can't throw as well as he did before the surgeries. I just...don't see why they could help each other. Yes, the Dodgers did need infield help, but was Rosario really the best choice? I can sort of see why now, cause he's been playing a lot better since landing in LA, but I question why they wanted to prioritize someone like Rosario, even getting him at the very beginning of the trade period. Thor in Cleveland I can sort of understand, though I will come back to this later, as Thor is still on the active roster.

-Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone to the Mariners

This is another type of deal I don't get, the lateral trade between two competitors. Maybe the Ms weren't thinking they'd compete when they dealt Sewald, but they're in the thick of the wild card race now, ahead of even the Angels, who went bigger than they did. The D-Backs, of all people, are the ones falling fast, and that's why it confuses me that it's the D-Backs receiving the most here. Sewald is an excellent relief piece and will likely be put right into the ninth. I get why Rojas and Canzone were dealt sort of, there wasn't room for them, but...it does seem like the Mariners get the net win here. Oh, now they have a decent depth infielder and another sharp outfield guy. I'm confused as to why the D-Backs gave two really good pieces up to another contender. Maybe it was just a 'suiting each other's needs' kind of thing, but it's odd to see trades between two teams in similar positions during this period.

-Paul DeJong to the Blue Jays, prospects to the Cardinals

The reason I'm so vexed by this move is that this is very much a reactionary tactic in direct response to Bo Bichette landing on the IL. Not only do we not know how long Bichette will be gone for, but we still have Santiago Espinal, who's a perfectly good shortstop and can cover that position well. The trigger finger was just really itchy, I think. DeJong getting out of St. Louis is something I figured would happen, but like with Whit Merrifield last year, the Blue Jays are making viable starters into depth options because they can. They are lucky that Merrifield became a perfectly good starter this year, but I don't know how much DeJong is going to offer them as a starter before Bichette returns. It seems like it fills a very specific and temporary need, which, yes, is the name of the game during the trade deadline, but I don't even think they intend to use DeJong in that prominent a role going into the playoffs.

-Andrew Chafin to the Brewers, Peter Strzelecki to the D-Backs

Another odd move the D-Backs made as a competitor was another lateral deal to a competitor with more leverage. Andrew Chafin was having an awesome reunion year with Arizona, he was doing so well. I really don't understand why they traded him, and why to the Brewers. It's not like they had too many people that threw with a specific arm, both Chafin and Strzelecki are both right-handers. It's not like there was something behind-the-scenes, clearly Chafin loves Phoenix. And it's the kind of deal where both are good relievers who have slightly high ERAs this year, and...neither team really wins per se, but also neither team really needed to make this trade. Why did these two need to be traded for each other? Who does this help?

-Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies, Bailey Falter to the Pirates

This is literally the Edmundo Sosa deal all over again. Falter wasn't working as a starting piece, the Bucs needed starters ready to go, that I get. Rodolfo Castro was the starting shortstop in the wake of Oneil Cruz's injury, and he was holding the position while Tucupita Marcano was hurt. There are thankfully shortstop options left in Pittsburgh, like Alika Williams and Liover Peguero, but...the Bucs clearly needed Castro more than the Phils did. Because now he's another depth infielder for us, and considering the rumor that we might go for a recently released guy I'll mention later, I'm not sure what he can do for us that, ironically Edmundo Sosa isn't already doing. 

-Garrett Cooper to the Padres, Ryan Weathers and prospect to the Marlins

Both of the next two deals that Kim Ng made vex me, and it's for one simple reason: I am not sure anything was wrong with Garrett Cooper. He was hitting .256 this season with 13 homers and 46 RBIs, that's not bad at all. Because of Yuli Gurriel he was in more of a DH type role, but he was still useful, and still had purpose in Miami. I don't know if he fits into the Padres' lineup quite as well, even if they have needed a stronger DH option. I think it's cool that Ryan Weathers gets to be the second member of his family to pitch for the Marlins, and they definitely have a swing spot for him. I just really don't think they needed to upgrade Garrett Cooper. Because, well...

-Josh Bell to the Marlins, Jean Segura to the Guardians

...this isn't much of an upgrade. Bell is not known for his defense, and he's been having a lackluster year for the Guardians. He may never hit his 2019, or even first-half 2022, heights again. I don't see how he's an upgrade from Cooper. Maybe in name recognition, but not current ability. He did just hit one out last night, but he also hit one out upon arriving in San Diego last year, and he sort of...settled after that. I also don't see why the Guardians would agree to receive Segura if they were just gonna release him immediately. This gives someone like Philly the chance to grab him and bring him back, as unlikely as that may be. It just seems like the Guardians threw out a very big contract from months ago for...nothing. And that's an alarming move, even if this does do the Marlins well going forward.

Maybe some of these will make sense over time, like Bryan Cashman nabbing Bader in exchange for Jordan Montgomery. But at the moment, I am very vexed, and will probably continue to be for a bit.

Wild Card Day 1 Observations: Karmic Retribution at Work

 

I think one of the ultimate goals this postseason for the teams that don't always dominate recent postseasons to do well. You know, I am very worried that we could have another year where the same few teams, like the Astros, Rays, Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves make it all the way [yes, I can hear you saying 'What about the Yankees?'], and I'd love to see the sort of underdog teams that don't always make it here have nice Octobers and start new regimes. And judging by the first day of the Wild Card series', I think we are seeing some of that at work.

I mean, I think the most traditional modern-day postseason team that won yesterday was probably Cleveland. They've been a perennial postseason team, even if they haven't had much luck since 2016. And now that they've let the kids come up and dominate the team along with Ramirez, they come off as fresh underdogs again. So, seeing them pummel the Rays a bit was fun. I've talked at length about why I don't like the Rays this season [I'll give ya a hint, it has to do with Jason Adam, Jeffrey Springs, Jalen Beeks and Ryan Thompson], but I also don't like how they just waltz into the playoffs without having a particularly durable or efficient team. It was a very simple game, but I'm glad Ramirez got the better of the Rays' pitching, and I hope this team can do it again today. 

So...I watched almost the entirety of the Phillies-Cardinals game yesterday. Thrilling stuff if ya love pitching and defense. I watched every single hit Philly ball go to a Cardinals outfielder, and I watched a few Cardinals balls go unanswered for a bit until Juan Yepez stepped up to bat, I audibly went 'oh no' and he blasted one to Mars. Fun stuff. So I run out to pick up some food in the top of the ninth, come back and it's 6-2 Phils. I was extremely confused. I had basically resigned myself to a Philly loss, and was just looking forward to what Aaron Nola would be doing today, but...sure enough, the Phils got hits off of Ryan Helsley and small-balled their way to a win. Which means I should get food during the game more often. I'm glad the heroes can be people like Bryson Stott, David Robertson, Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm. Proof that it doesn't have to just be the big guys. Hoping for a big Game 2 as well.

...Bless the Seattle Mariners, man. They've been waiting 21 years for this, they come in there and absolutely throttle a team that people were saying would be a postseason lock all year. Not that the Blue Jays didn't try, but the Ms had Luis Castillo throwing smoke, Raleigh and Suarez having fun at the plate, and so many elements clicking into place now. My uncle's a Mariners guy, and though he watched the game with baited breath, he's gotta be relieved that this team can work in October. I hope it lasts longer than this one game.

And then...the upset of the night, not counting inning 9 in St. Louis. Max Scherzer, one of the best pitchers in baseball, being too hurt to hold down the Padres lineup. Josh Bell, Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham and Manny Machado all took him yard, and made everybody rethink their postseason predictions. Even if the Mets' bullpen was pretty strong afterwards, and there were signs of life thanks to Eduardo Escobar, the Padres looked phenomenal last night, and Yu Darvish looked absolutely untouchable. The Padres need to prove that they can stop the Mets consistently, as the Mets will be putting up deGrom today against Blake Snell, which looks like a winning matchup for New York. If the Padres win today, the Mets fans' passive aggressive anger will be through the roof.

I hope we get some more fun games today. Would love to see some teams advance, especially Philly.

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2022

 Alright. Prolonged it enough. Built it up enough. Delayed it with National posts. But here, as per usual, is my personal list of the Top 10 Trade Deadline deals this year. I am judging this on how much it affects a team's playoff chances as well as future outlook, and I am keeping in mind star power as well as how much a team gave up to make this.

Here we go, right in with #10:

#10: David Peralta to the Rays, prospects to the Diamondbacks

This was a move a lot of D-Backs fans had figured was coming, and an interesting move as, in a deadline year where the Rays have given up Brett Phillips and had attempted to give up Ji-Man Choi, the Rays still end up as buyers. Peralta is not at his peak anymore, but he's a solid outfield bat, and he can provide star power for a depleted, falling Rays team. I'm not sure if the Rays will make as great of an impact on the postseason as they usually do, but competing with someone like Peralta will definitely give them a slight advantage. 

#9- Tyler Mahle to the Twins, prospects to the Reds

As much as it pains me to see the Reds unload the rest of the talent that made their teams so fun at the end of the last decade, this is at least a useful move because it reunites Mahle with Sonny Gray, and it adds him to a burgeoning rotation that could use some consistent innings eaters. Mahle will be a heck of a talent playing for a true competitor, and might have the best mileage of any of these pitching additions, even a teammate of his. 

#8- Trey Mancini to Houston, Jose Siri to Tampa, prospects to Baltimore

One of the first real blockbusters of the deadline. People had a feeling Mancini would be leaving the O's, as it's the kind of move they can make without compromising the core they've been building this year. Mancini is still a great hitter and can be a massive upgrade at 1st from Yuli Gurriel, giving them yet another upgrade in a monolithic year for the Astros. Meanwhile, Jose Siri is the kind of roster addition in Tampa that could yield outrageous dividends sooner or later. I equate him to somebody like Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes or Tyler Glasnow, where they weren't much in their initial farm system but once they got to Tampa, they figured it out and in a big way. Siri is gonna be huge for the Rays very soon, and I think he'll be the big name in this deal contemporarily. 

#7- Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees, prospects to the Royals

Yes, only #7. While this is a great deal that provides an outfield upgrade for the Yankees to people like Joey Gallo, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton, as well as bringing a surefire contact hitter like Benny to the Bronx...a couple things have pushed this down. 1, the Yankees have made better moves this deadline. 2, the Yankees also got a major defensive upgrade in Harrison Bader thanks to a deal I will be talking about in another post, and 3, Benny hasn't figured out hitting in Yankee Stadium in his first few games there. I hope it's not like a Joey Gallo thing where the pressure's too much, and I honestly doubt it will be, but it's brought this one down a bit. Still, great move, and one that solves a lot of problems for the Yankees.

#6: Christian Vazquez to the Astros, prospects to the Red Sox. 

I had said somewhere that the only thing keeping the Astros from an essential waltz to the ALCS was a better catcher than Martin Maldonado. WELL...THEY'VE GOT ONE NOW. Vazquez was having another nice season for the Sox, now that he's in Houston he plugs in nicely. I don't think this team has many holes anymore, and it unsettles me. The Astros could very well win the whole thing this year, and Vazquez is more reassurance at backstop than they've had in a while. Excellent move, even at #6.

#5- Noah Syndergaard to the Phillies, Mickey Moniak and prospects to the Angels

Well...I CERTAINLY LOVE THIS MOVE. No offense meant towards people like Kyle Gibson and Ranger Suarez, but the back half of the Phillies rotation has a lot of very dull innings eaters without a lot of fun upsides. We NEEDED a guy like Thor. First of all, hooray, reunited with Wheeler. Second of all, while he's been a strikeout artist for years, those injuries have mellowed him into a more controlling, thoughtful pitcher, and he's had a nice start for the Angels. And thirdly...guys, Noah Syndergaard gets to pitch for one of my teams. As if I needed another excuse to love this guy. Yes, there's the issue of injuries, and Thor has had a ton over the years, which is why this is lower than some other pitching moves, but...on paper this is great. Thor on the Phils. Really helps our postseason chances.

#4- Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees, J.P. Sears and prospects to the Athletics.

Well...this was the Yankees big pitching move this year. I think it's really good. Montas, while never the standout of the A's rotation, has always been a nasty little strikeout guy for them, and has had some big games even this season. Trivino, while he's struggled recently, has had masterful control as a bullpen asset there. And even if we lose a starting option like J.P. Sears, especially in the wake of losing ANOTHER STARTING OPTION BRIAN, Montas is not only an innings eater, he's an impressing starting asset that gives us another leg up in terms of our rotation. Cole, Montas, Cortes and Taillon are all looking good, even if that fifth spot still worries me [THANKS AGAIN BRIAN]. 

#3- Josh Hader to the Padres, Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet et al to the Brewers

This was my biggest shock of the deadline. Yes, contracts are contracts, but HADER getting dealt, as one of the best closers in the game right now, is huge. Especially considering that this is a deal between two competitors, and they're honestly helping each other. I have a whole post prepared tomorrow involving these kinds of 'you scratch my back' deals, and why they baffle me, but this one I can kind of see the benefits of. Rogers is still a great closer for the Brewers, and he can still help them compete. Hader, meanwhile, is pretty much a rental for the Padres, but he helps them become even more ironclad in the ninth, and adds to the 'all-star team' mentality San Diego is going with for this run. Probably has the most immediate ramifications of any of these deals, and it's still pretty impressive.

#2- Luis Castillo to the Mariners, prospects to the Reds

Initially you look at this deal and it's not very big. Okay, the Mariners get a solid innings-eater like Castillo, big whoop. Well...then you start to think about it. The Mariners got the #1 arm on the board this deadline. They got one of the top arms on the board in the offseason as well, Robbie Ray. So now their rotation is Ray, Logan Gilbert, Castillo, Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, with the occasional assist by George Kirby. That is...that is outstanding. Even if this team has had trouble with Houston and now is fighting New York tooth and nail, Luis Castillo puts them over the edge from novelty streaker into the main lexicon of competitors. Luis Castillo could be the Mariners' way of breaking the 21 year playoff drought. And I think he's the exact right guy for this team. 

In a normal year, that'd be a ballsy yet respectable pick for #1, completely changes a team's gameplan and makes for a new favorite in the wild card race. 

This, however, is not a normal year.

#1- Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres, Luke Voit, Mackenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams, along with some prospects, to the Nationals. 

Well...crap. A.J. Prefer just broke the deadline, guys. Let's be clear, we knew Soto would be changing hands, the team and him weren't on great terms, you could see it. We had a feeling Josh Bell would be leaving too considering his season. But...not like this. Oh my gosh. Putting not only Soto but BELL in the same lineup as Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and eventually Fernando Tatis Jr....uh...yeah, that's gonna be hard for anybody to beat. In terms of the return, the Nats did pretty well too, getting a power-hitting 1B/DH in the wake of Zim's departure, a starting phenom in Gore that I'm surprised the Padres parted with, and a shortstop that wasn't getting any playing time in SD anyway. The Nats now have Abrams, Gore, Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, and all these new prospects chilling in the minors. Don't be shocked if they take off in a couple years. For now, the Padres won this deadline, and they got the biggest piece on the board. Get ready for what they're about to do in the NL.

Tomorrow, we're gonna talk about some of these that didn't make much sense.