Short Left

 

One of the big stories out of the baseball world today was the rise of 6'6 Yankee centerfield prospect Spencer Jones. I've kept tabs on him for a while, as I'd always heard very good things, and he's turning out to be a really nice, hard-hitting outfielder. Like Aaron Judge, he's big and tall and hits like crazy. People were worried about Soto leaving and I reminded them that Jones wasn't going anywhere. Between him and George Lombard, the youth has been giving Yankee fans lots to be excited about this spring.

But of course, the Yankees doing well means that across the country the Houston Astros are no doubt thinking of ways to get the better of them in the end, especially after a shellacking the other day. Which is why, to combat the Yankees' plan for a 6'6 centerfielder, the Astros have invested in an, um...5'6 left fielder. 

The idea of moving Jose Altuve to left emerged during talks with Alex Bregman. They basically said, 'look, if Isaac Paredes is our third baseman, we can sign Bregman to play 2nd, even if it means moving Altuve to left'. And the thing is, getting Altuve out of 2nd does feel like a step in the right direction for this team. Yes, Altuve has a ton of all-star nods and silver sluggers, but he's only won a single gold glove, and it was 10 years ago. The last three seasons, Altuve's defensive infield skills have been several points below average, as his journey to becoming a one-dimensional power hitter continues. The Astros have Mauricio Dubon, and they have Brendan Rodgers, and those are better defensive bets than Altuve right now. So, as it doesn't make sense to DH him with Alvarez holding court there, the die was cast and Altuve was moved to left field.

There's uh...a few fundamental issues with that. And I understand the irony of me saying this someone who is 6'7. But, you see...there's the thought that maybe a lot of balls are gonna fly over Altuve's head out there. Look, if they're arcing at chest level he'll be fine, but he is not the 'leaping catch' kind of outfielder that even Kyle Tucker was able to be. Jose Altuve's height has been the punchline of the MLB for a while, and this is just a sight gag waiting to happen. 

I think there is a case to be made that the Astros wouldn't put Altuve there if they didn't have immense trust in him as an athlete, and his ability speaks for itself. One of the most consistent hitters in the game, one of the most driven athletes, and someone who can help you a million different ways. But putting him in left is a risk that may not pay off. Boston learned this when they tried making Hanley Ramirez an outfielder, they learned the limits of Ramirez as a defender very quickly. Not everyone is Mookie Betts. 

What this says the most to me is that the Astros are desperately trying to reinvent themselves to distract from how many people are leaving. Verlander's gone, Tucker's gone, Bregman's gone, Pressly's gone. An outfield of Altuve-McCormick-Meyers, even if it's not BAD, stands out. George Springer used to be here, Kyle Tucker used to be here. Even Jeremy Pena, and let's be clear here, a very good shortstop in his own right, has the unfathomable task of trying to match up to Carlos Correa, and he's only done so much. The Astros have Hayden Wesneski and Ryan Gusto in position to start games in case any one of the many guys on injury watch can't make it to Opening Day. Everything about this team screams 'diminishing returns to me'. And yes, the Astros are the kind of team that can make things happen with nothing, but without Tucker? Without Dusty Baker? With Altuve in left?

Also, the big feat for me might be starting this custom season with the three teams I enjoy talking about the least. The Red Sox, the Cardinals and the Astros, including Altuve. Just getting 'em out of the way. I usually leave them for last this month. 

Nolan Noncommittal

 

The regular season is less than a month away, and several of the last unanswered questions of the offseason are finally being wrapped up. Jose Quintana just signed with Milwaukee. Both Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks look like they'll be ready for April. All three Japanese pitchers in LA are headed for big years. And yet there's still a pretty big unknown looming as we head through March. The Cardinals are still going with Nolan Arenado, despite their frequent attempts to trade him to save cap space. Regardless of the deal that was supposed to happen with Boston [before Bregman was signed] or New York [which is allegedly still on the table], Arenado is still reporting in Jupiter, and still very much a part of the Cardinals' 2025 plans.

And yet there's still the threat that he won't be. People have continued to use the term 'audition start' for a lot of Arenado's Spring appearances thus far, and it's getting to the point where Arenado is not only aware of it, he's getting pretty tired of it. There's the slightest possibility that these starts may be him trying out for, well, the Cardinals' 2025 roster, and not the Yankees' roster or the Astros' roster or whatever the hell. And he's trying to convey this, while also aware that the Cardinals' ownership, as any Cardinals fan can tell you, are actively trying to rebuild this year, hence them also shopping Erick Fedde for a hot second. 

Now, Nolan Arenado, on paper, should have a good case for anyone to snap him up. He's one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, his prime seasons make him a likely Hall of Fame candidate, he'll cross 350 home runs this year while averaging 25 per season, and he's really only ever missed 15 or so games per season. But the last two seasons have seen dips in quality both at the plate and in the field, resulting in a very average year for Arenado in 2024. If he'd been a 5 WAR guy again last year he'd have already been traded, and possibly could have joined Goldy, another future Hall of Famer primed for a bounce back year, in New York already. Even at 34, Arenado is still elite, trustworthy and impressive. But I think that after the Donaldson thing, the Yankees are afraid to trade for a past-his-prime third baseman again. They're already taking a risk with Goldschmidt, they can't afford both corners to be post-peak guys. Not in a year where they're trying to replace Soto; 2014 had a similar plan and it didn't go well.

So far this spring, Arenado has been fine. He's hitting .214, with 3 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. Perfectly serviceable. Not elite. Not worth trading for. At this rate, maybe a midseason deal? Or maybe someone will swoop in this month anyway and take a chance. It could turn out fine, as he's still Nolan Arenado at the end of the day. But even in the search to finally remain on a true competitor, is Nolan Arenado really the right guy to rely upon in 2025?

Still, the Yanks may bite anyway. I think they've tried Stroman for Arenado straight up and that didn't fly. Maybe they retool it and surprise people. Or maybe somebody else surprises me. 

What's That Coming Over the Hill?

 

The beginning of the spring training season is usually seen as a time of promise, hope and excitement. As a Yankee fan, though, there is this tinge of worry this particular preseason. Not only are the Yankees battling a tumultuous offseason, where we let Juan Soto get away, pissed off Marcus Stroman, couldn't trade for Nolan Arenado and extended Aaron Boone, and looking at a season with Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Gil and Scott Effross missing loads of time...but, uh...the Red Sox are looking good.

Last year, the Red Sox had a team that was good enough to beat us when we weren't looking but not good enough to make the playoffs. Clearly the Alex Cora formula works, and there are so many young pieces that are helping this team return to prominence, but they just weren't good enough. So the team responded by signing Walker Buehler, Alex Bregman and Aroldis Chapman, trading for Garrett Crochet, and ensuring that both Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks would be healthy for the start of the season. In case you thought the AL East was too competitive last year, here we go again.

I say this like the Yankees didn't retool themselves. They signed Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt and traded for Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams. They did stuff too. But what they've done is they've taken the money they would have spent on Juan Soto and spent it on two older hitters and a pitcher who's great when he's healthy but has missed time in the last few seasons. They're trying to get back to where they were last year. The Sox are headed forward. Everything they've done in the past few months has been a forward step, because they want the division again. 

Now, as much as Fried could be a liability for the Yanks, Garrett Crochet could be one. You all remember what he did from 2022 to 2023, right? Sat on the bench rehabbing. Like Luis Gil, he was great in 2021, injured for two years, and then incredible last year. Such is the nature of hard throwing pitchers these days. Gil might be missing some time if that MRI comes back dirty. Crochet is similarly playing with fire. When he's healthy he's incredible, but last year the White Sox started limiting his innings just to keep him healthy. Strategically, it may have been to ensure that if they did trade him, which was likely, they wouldn't damage him by overcooking him on a lost season. 

This explains why Crochet has been excellent so far in Spring Training play for Boston, and why the Sox aren't especially worried about keeping him at the head of the rotation. They're also very flexible right now, and while the plan is to go with Crochet-Bello-Giolito-Buehler-Houck for Opening Day, if Giolito and Crochet [and Buehler now that you mention it] are giving them pause they could always stagnate their starts and go with Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts [and in this rotation he sure will] in a pinch. This is a very smart response to pitchers getting injured too easily, just pack the rotation with too many good options and if they all get hurt you still have depth. The Reds should pick up on this unless they really want to start Carson Spiers every year.

I should also mention that, like the Yankees, the Sox are dealing with a smidge of controversy themselves this year, with Rafael Devers taking umbrage with Boston getting another All-Star third baseman. The ideal world is Bregman playing 2nd, but how successful will that be? Remember, Trevor Story moving to second made him even more susceptible to injury. It's gonna take placating Bregman and Devers at the same time, which can be difficult individually. Hopefully this works in a way that Devers, still one of the best Red Sox around, can remain a part of this team going forward, because losing him would be a mistake. The Yanks bobbled Soto, the Jays are bobbling Vlad, but this could be just as bad.

So I'm going into 2025 expecting the Red Sox to be competitive, and to have some very high upsides. It'd be wonderful if the Yankees, even without Soto, found a way to be even better.

The Stars Are Out: The Rest of 2024

 

Another year where I kept forgetting to find moments to post the Stars Are Out customs. Topps bringing back the First Pitch insert set may have contributed to this as well, since they're documenting first pitches I'm only sort of needed, cause I kinda only do the cool niche ones anyhow. No matter. There was still some left, so before I start rolling out 2025 customs, here they are.

I'm starting with Patrick Willis, not only because he's one of the few sports-related first pitches I documented in this batch, but because I've met the man. Million years ago, back when he was still playing with the 49ers, a mutual friend introduced me. Great guy, soft spoken. Treated me like an equal, despite me being young and decidedly not an All-Pro linebacker. Willis was one of the best of his era, and he deserved his HOF enshrinement. Awesome that he still gets a nice welcome in SF.

The Braves had two different OMG music stars take up the pregame this past year for first pitches. Somehow Usher, the bigger star of the two, had the comparatively humbler approach. Usher's still a really big deal, and his Super Bowl halftime show was very good. There were a ton of photos to choose from of him at Truist Field, this was a pretty good one. Then Ludacris not only did a first pitch, but did so in this insane getup, with massive arms and massive feet. That's the real feet there, trying to throw out the first pitch with massive foam hands. Subtlety isn't exactly Luda's strong suit, but hey, it's certainly an original one.

Advertising mascots. ADVERTISING MASCOTS THROWING OUT FIRST PITCHES. This is where we're at, people. This is the degree of modern capitalism here. I think Jake from State Farm did one last year as well. Wondering who's next. LiMu Emu and Doug? The Aflac duck? The Green M&M? 

Arguably as confusing as an advertising mascot throwing out the first pitch, Jared Leto throwing one out at a Mets game. I'm still not sure what Jared Leto's deal is. If his acting's meant to be like that on purpose or not. He also just shows up places randomly. Last April fool's day he was randomly hosting Wheel of Fortune, and it was never addressed. Why him? Why Wheel of Fortune? Why are we validating the guy that starred in 'Morbius'?? Who knows. I don't even know if he's a Mets fan at all. Chloe Grace Moretz did one at CitiField, and her I can buy as a Mets fan. Jared Leto...does he even know what sports are?

So the Guardians have essentially adopted Machine Gun Kelly, and gave him his own promotion last year. I like that they're giving back to a famous Clevelander who loves the team and wears his Ohio upbringing on his sleeve, but right as the sun is rising on the Guardians as a league threat, the sun is setting on Machine Gun Kelly as a credible musician. Like, what has this man done in the past two years that's in any way worthy of preservation? Hell, the Guardians seem to be alright with the fact that MGK's walkoff win during the Celebrity Softball Game was done under the influence of hallucinogenics, so I don't know if they really can be too choosy right now. He's theirs, and he likes coming to games...and the Kelces are harder to get. 

We'll end on these two, these are much cooler rock music gets. Jerry Cantrell is the driving creative force behind Alice in Chains, he's not only the reason their songs kicked so much ass in the 90s but he's the reason for their underrated 2009-2018 comeback, where he honestly held his own as lead singer. Alice in Chains is a very cool band, and Cantrell, though doing his solo thing right now, is a rock legend. He's not from Ohio, but he rolled through Cleveland and the Guards thought 'what the hell'. 

Tom DeLonge, meanwhile, is from San Diego, and wears his SoCal roots on his sleeve. DeLonge was doing his own thing for a bit, running Angels and Airwaves, searching for UFOs, but he's back with Blink-182 now and they're...at least making successful music. I can't say it's as good as their 2000s stuff, even as someone sort of ambivalent towards it. But he's happy, healthy, thriving, and probably still chasing UFOs. Good to see him throw one out in San Diego. 

It remains to be seen if I'll be doing more of these this year. I might anyway. Topps is gonna go for the big stars and probably not for the fun ones I care about. So I guess there's a niche carved out for me anyhow.

So, It's Come to This: A Blaster of 2024 Allen and Ginter

I've griped about this in so many words, but it's been a very difficult year for me to keep up as a collector. I've been in between jobs, making what I can, saving mostly, and...not buying a ton of new cardboard. And when I CAN go to Target, there's never any there. These TCDB trades have been scratching that itch, I've been catching up on a lot of more recent stuff, but the other part of getting new cardboard is the chance of getting the rookie in question. Obviously you collect the way you collect, and I collect the players I like, but if there's a chance to get a centerpiece card, that always helps. I remember starting out collecting in the late 2000s, getting a ton of 2008 Updates and Highlights, and that's how I've ended up with 2 Clayton Kershaw rookies, a gold parallel of an Evan Longoria rookie, and that Al Gore gimmick. And all are still integral parts of my collection.

In the last few years, I've missed out on finding big rookies of people like Julio Rodriguez, Luis Robert, Gunnar Henderson and more. Now, I've got enough Ohtani rookies to choke a commissioner, but I worry I'm gonna be missing out on what could be the next windfall. And right now that is Paul Skenes. It's worrying to me that I've been unable to find any Topps Update from 2024, and all the online suppliers have hiked up the price solely because of the Skenes factor. For the first time basically ever, I've resigned myself to just...not being able to find any Topps Update, a set that was once one of my favorites. 

So I was in Target today, at the very least seeing if I could find Archives or Stadium Club or something to at least fulfill that want for newer stuff. The card aisle, as it has been, was bare. Nothing going on. A hanger box of MLS cards. Some packs of stickers. A few 2024 factory sets. Nothing. And the fact that it took me hanging around the backs of the action figure aisles to check for discounts to find a completely different card endcap, with much more options and lines of Allen and Ginter blasters, says a lot. Why wouldn't they put those up in the front? Y'know, with the sports cards??

Nevertheless, I saw the shelf of A&G blasters, amidst the other sports stuff I had no interest in, and resigned myself to it. Sure. Why not? I'm not really an A&G guy, there's too many cards that don't fit in my collection, but I'm a TCDB trader now (at TallestJord, I forgot to point that out last time), and at the very least I can offload the stuff that won't fit in binder pages.

You know the drill. 8 packs, 6 cards per pack. Every pack contains a mini and a subset. SPs are seeded 1:2, so we should get 4. There's also new chrome cards seeded 1 per I think. I don't think A&G needs chrome, but since Topps thought it'd be a good idea to overhaul Stadium Club with parallels, A&G wasn't safe.

Pack 1- Yeah, this is kinda what I expect. The HOFer/legend selection is still great, I'm always down for Roy Campanella sightings. The base design is...an understandable step for A&G. I think those first 3 years were perfectly simple and they had to keep overcomplicating things. 

The Dog show subset is standard, but the 50 States mini, of Nebraska, is seeded 1:21. 

Pack 2- By several metrics, a very good pack. An Elly rookie, an A&G back rookie of Heston Kjerstad, and an SP of Pablo Lopez. Also, Jason Aldean is here for some reason. I wanna know what Topps's criteria for earning a non-sport base card in Ginter is. Didn't Mark Sanford get one right after the sex scandal? If you're gonna do Aldean, I'm kinda shocked it took you this long. Like, after 'Try That In a Small Town'? The window has passed, man. Anyway, my lasting impression of Aldean is the one Mean Tweet he read that was something like 'Jason Aldean looks like his dick got caught in his sister'. Bodied.

Sister Sister is seeded 1:5. Mildly amusing idea.

Pack 3- More non-sport guys I do not care about. A Westburg rookie, that's pretty cool. We got a gold mini, that's 1:11, of the great Edgar Martinez, and a lovely card of a bee that's seeded 1:6. 

Pack 4- A Ted Lasso supporting guy and a schnauzer. Gotta love A&G. Blackburn is an SP. He is also on the wrong team. A sobering reminder of how early the checklist cutoff for this product was. Carter looks awesome though. That Thomas black border is a 1:11 pack card, so that's pretty cool. 

Pack 5- What do these four people have in common? None of them played in an MLB game in 2024. Clemens getting pictured as a Jay is cool and all but man I do not enjoy continuing to pull his cards. I really hope Mauricio turns out to be as good as people have said he will.

I'm spotlighting the subsets and minis cause they're both great. X'Ray'd falls 1 per blaster, and this is an extremely cool, CHROME, card of what it looks like when you x-ray a cape porcupine. They even credit the zoo that took the picture, the Oregon Zoo. That's pretty cool.

The big takeaway is the Rookie Design Variation card of Wyatt Langford. These are 1 per blaster, and Langford's one of the better names to pull. Very happy with this. It ain't Skenes, but it ain't, like, nobody.

Pack 6- At the time of pulling this was my favorite pack in the box. A Hall of Famer, a future Hall of Famer, one of my favorite current players, and one of the top rookies in the set. Merrill and Judge help justify the price. Jones is an SP, and a great, and timely, pull at that.

Pack 7- Another dog, an SP mini, a welcome Nolan Ryan, and our one-per-box chrome card of Corey Seager. I'll say this, I was so fixated on finally getting the chrome card that I didn't realize what was directly behind it..

So...I don't rip A&G often, but when I do, I have decent luck. Last time I got a blaster of A&G I pulled a Rafael Devers relic. This is also pretty nice. Austin Riley's a terrific infield bat, and one of the most crucial pieces of these Braves teams. It is a grey swatch, yes, and it is a full size relic, yes, but...it's a relic of a guy I've not only heard of, but is a star. Typically you get an auto or relic of a scrub from a retail blaster. This is not that, this is very good. So I was very happy with this. This is where I mention that a full size pattern B relic falls 1 in every 89 blasters. So that's fantastic. 

Pack 8- A milder finish, but still pretty cool. Pages could be something if he figures it out. There's Riley again. Johnny Bench, in an SP, clearly is picture in a uniform from the late 60s, and my second gold mini is of Daddy Yankee. Not a huge listener of his. Me gusta la gasolina thought.

That did exactly what I wanted it to. Provided me with new cards of people I collect, some decent rookies, some trade bait, and a surprise relic I can get behind. Definitely a success. Hopefully the next time I wander into a well-stocked retail shelf I'll have luck like this as well. 

My Unofficial Hall of Fame Ballot for 2025

 Doing this post every year, I've been here for booms and lulls in terms of Baseball Hall of Fame classes. The class of 2014, which brought in undeniable heroes Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas and Tom Glassine in one fell swoop, as well as the class of 2015, which inducted John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, came on the heels of several weak HOF classes, most crucially the 2007 class, where nobody got in [mostly in protest of the steroid guys]. Lately we've been in a similar lull, with a lot of recoup years, a lot of small classes, and another nothing year in 2021. Last year was a starrier year, but we knew it was going to eventually lead to this pack coming next.

In the next three or four years, all of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey and Zack Greinke will all be joining HOF ballots and probably getting in. There are some big classes approaching for the BBHOF. 2025's will be the first. Because there's definitely one all-time MLB titan going in this year, and he's not going in alone.

As usual, I'll be filling out a Hall of Fame ballot as I would if I were a registered member of the writer's guild. I'm allowing myself up to 10 names, and thinking clearly about which of these players I'd seriously consider for induction in the Hall of Fame. The question I constantly ask is 'can the story of baseball be told without this player'. Not everyone asks this; Harold Baines and Jim Kaat are in after all. But with most of the people I include in these posts, they're integral to the history of the sport. 

Bobby Abreu

This is one of those where, at least for another couple years, it's really just gonna be me championing him. Right now there are enough bandwagon cases on the bracket [Andruw, Beltran, Wagner, Utley] that I don't know if Abreu will get the attention he deserves. Hell, he's not even the most deserving ex-2005 Phillie on here. I've put him on here because he was one of the best hitting outfielders of the 2000s, was a multi-tool guy for some great Phillies teams, and had that uncanny ability to get hits at all costs. The argument can be made that his peak period happened A.) for a bad team and B.) for too small an increment of time, but I still think his numbers, especially from '99 to '06, say more than people are thinking. 400 steals, nearly 2500 hits, nearly 300 homers, career .291 average? That's not something to completely ignore. It's not gonna happen this year, or next, but hopefully his case surfaces eventually. 

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 10%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 30%

Carlos Beltran

It's looking like the period of shaming Beltran for cheating is coming to an end. Because if he'd retired after the 2016 season, he'd be in already, and probably still managing the Mets [what a world that'd be..]. Helping the Astros cheat their way to a title ruined what was looking like a surefire HOF case, and thus what should have happened on the first ballot has taken two or three. But the polls so far are indicating that if it doesn't happen this year, it probably will in 2026. Beltran has a career 70 WAR, 2725 hits, 435 homers and 1587 RBIs, the most by a non-juicer on the ballot. He made the Cardinals competitive after Pujols, he made the Astros and Mets playoff teams in the 2000s, and had one last exceptional year for the Yankees in 2016. He deserves to be in. It remains to be seen if the shaming will be over this year or run for one more, but I think this is finally lifting.

Team of Induction: Kansas City Royals

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 70%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 92%

Felix Hernandez

It should be simple. From 2007 til 2015, Felix Hernandez was among the top two pitchers in the AL. Him and Verlander, with Kluber approaching late and Sabathia threatening below. In this period, Felix had a 3 ERA, 127 wins, a 45.8 WAR and 1889 strikeouts. With 23 complete games and 10 shutouts. This, for the record, represents the entirety of Felix's 20s. Like many, his appeal was dulled once he turned 30, and his velocity and punch were nowhere near peak levels. But the strength of Felix during his peak years should be enough to get him in, as Buster Posey will be facing a similar question in a few years [and probably getting in], and Roy Halladay also was inducted despite a sharp drop-off to end his career. It's gonna take two or three more years than it should to get everybody else onboard Felix's HOF case, and that's honestly criminal. Remember how I made a whole stink in 2010 that C.C. Sabathia deserved the Cy Young over Felix? He didn't. Felix was the more dominant pitcher, as he was throughout that whole era. 

Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 15%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 61%

Andruw Jones

Yeah, speaking of peak years, Andruw Jones might get in before Felix does on the strength of his peak years, and I'm not entirely sure if it deserves to go in that order. I've discussed Jones' case on here before, his 20s provided some of the best defense in the game and some of the best power in the game. The turnoff is everything he did after 2006. Even with that in mind, his stuff as a bench guy in New York in Chicago and New York in the early 2010s was pretty damn good too. Clearly he wasn't 2005-era Andruw, but he was still helpful. If Helton, Piazza and Thome are in, to represent that early 2000s NL battery, then Andruw should probably be in too.

Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 48%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 87%

Jimmy Rollins

Like Abreu this is mostly my Philly bias but I genuinely think J-Rol was the best shortstop in the NL during the 2000s. Rollins had that x-factor, both from a personality standpoint and a gameplay standpoint, that just lifted his stuff above the average. He was a joy to watch in the field, a brutal contact hitter, and a beloved clubhouse leader wherever he went. There's a reason why Ryan Howard, who was the starrier name during this period, is off the ballot but Rollins remains; Rollins was more consistent, more versatile, and had no disappointing cool-off period. Some may argue he wasn't 'truly great' enough, and that's fair, but I think he's one of the best representations of the 2008 Phils team, and he should eventually get in.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 12% 

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 50%

C.C. Sabathia

C.C. Sabathia will be entering the Hall of Fame as one of the last of a dying breed of pitcher, finishing his career with 250 wins and 3000 strikeouts. Due to the expanded rotations, as well as the rise in overthrowing and conditioning, we may never get as many 300 game winners, or even 250 game winners, as we used to in the 70s. But Sabathia managed to be a truly reliable ace for two full decades, mowing down batters with Cleveland in the 2000s and becoming a rotation mainstay with the Yankees in the 2010s. I have respect for Sabathia's ability to go from a hard thrower to a trickster in his waning years. I saw him pitch in 2017, and he kept the Cardinals at bay without overexerting himself, which is the sign of a masterful, and smart, pitcher. The 3000 K thing ensured CC's enshrinement, but I think it's still clear just how good CC was throughout his career, and I think it'll be an earned induction today. 

Team of Induction: New York Yankees

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 100%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Ichiro Suzuki

There shouldn't be much question. Ichiro Suzuki is one of the greatest pure athletes to play baseball in general. Getting 18 seasons of him in the MLB feels miraculous. That he played into his 40s with the same drive, attitude and regiment that made him a star in Japan speaks to his incredible power. The man finished his career with a total of 4367 hits, split between Japan and America. He made 10 All Star teams, won 10 Gold Gloves, won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year simultaneously, retired with a .311 average, and remained in the MLB long enough to retire while spurning on the next generation of Japanese athletes in 2019. Ichiro shouldn't just be a Hall of Famer, he should have his own wing. 

Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 100%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 5,000%

Chase Utley

Clearing a few of the hangers-on from the ballot is gonna do a lot for Chase Utley, undeniably the best 2nd baseman of his generation and one of the best pure hitters of the 2000s. It's looking like Utley's vote count will exceed 100 this year, meaning there's a good chance he crosses 50% and starts headed for that all-important 75. And even with another 2008 Phillie joining the ballot next year and Ian Kinsler's case making some people think this year, I do think Utley is ultimately bound for the Hall of Fame. It's just not going to be immediate. It can't be ignored, however, that from 2005 to 2010, Utley had a 45.5 WAR. Russell Martin, who got a lot of sportswriter support this winter, finished his career with a 38.8 WAR. Utley's peak is one of the most prolific peak periods of his era, and that's without even factoring in his 25 postseason RBIs and 10 postseason home runs in that period. Utley was not only good, he was the difference maker between good teams and great teams; you can directly tie the Phillies' rise to his presence on the team, and their fall to his injuries and cooling off. I think Utley deserves to be in, and hopefully it just takes another couple years of this to get other people onto this idea.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 34%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 76%

Billy Wagner

It took ten years, way longer than I thought, but I think it's finally time for Billy Wagner to get in this year. The way he's polling it looks extremely likely, and though there's always a chance the percentage snaps shut with the flood of open ballots, it's looking like the numbers are on his side finally. What has helped Wagner stay on the ballot, and ultimately slide towards induction, is the fact that after Rivera, Hoffman and Smith got in, there just weren't many other truly great closers up for consideration. K-Rod is still on the ballot, and statistically he probably has the numbers, but he can't do this with Wagner still here. Fernando Rodney's on the ballot this year, he's not a HOFer. The next two 'possibly' guys will be Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, and that'll be an interesting conversation. Ultimately, Billy Wagner was a lights-out closer for 15 years, was untouchable with Houston, and is one of the most consistent relief pitchers of his era. Keeping him out means insinuating that there are better options around, and there is no evidence to this. I think it's happening this year, and if for some reason it doesn't then the Veterans Committee will probably make it happen eventually.

Team of Induction: Houston Astros

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 97%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 89%

The way it's looking right now, Ichiro, CC and Wagner are in, and Beltran could go either way. He very well may squeak in, I'm not 100% sure he will but it's possible. So that's 3 or 4 names now, and they're big names. Next year might not be as prolific, but it'll sure be interesting. 

How I Learned How to Trade Properly

 One of the things I've learned about myself is that if something scares me, or if it's something new that I don't really know how to do yet, then I'll put off doing it for as long as I can. It's just one aspect of my anxiety, where if I can't see the solution or if I fear doing something wrong the first time, the easiest way to circumvent that is to not do anything. And of course that's never the most effective solution, but in anxious states I can justify it.

I've had the blog for 15, nearly 16, years. I've stayed in my comfort zone a lot, kept making contact, writing about cards. I always knew I could be engaging more with the community, as people did trades all the time, but that scared me. The blind nature of it always worried me, like I had no idea if I'd be sending too much, or not enough, or if there'd be too much the person didn't need. And I did a couple here and there but I always worried I'd do something wrong or I'd get something wrong in shipping. So I didn't really trade much, despite constantly knowing that I needed to go outside my comfort zone. 

I had a similar approach to TDCB for a while as well. I knew it was good for logging cards, and I knew lots of people made trades through there, but it intimidated me. There was just so much, and my collection being as large as it is, I knew I'd need to spend a lot of time curating things there. And so I'd log a ton of stuff, stay away, log some more, stay away. Like I didn't want to engage too much, because I'd get the fledgling trade request and I didn't know what to do. 

About a month ago I finally decided to hear someone out about a trade. Compared to how it was in the old days, it was easy- my collection's there for these people to look at, they can see what I don't have, it can be fair right from the jump. And so it was somewhat comforting. I knew I wasn't gonna get anything I didn't need, I knew I wasn't gonna be doing anything a trade partner wouldn't want. My inexperience still worried me, and my first trade or so I did wait for the package to arrive so I could see how the sender packaged it, and I could replicate it. And when I explained that to my trade partner, he was understanding. Better than somebody half-assing it and not thinking at all. 

I've now sent a couple of dozens of these trades out. I've been spending the last week logging trade bait specifically to keep attracting trades. I'm no longer intimidated by it. And I'm actually getting some cards I can do something with, in exchange for ones I really have no use for. I say this like it's mind-blowing and not commonplace, but it is for me. 

Here are some of my recent findings after a couple months trading on TCDB:

-Set-Building Is Much More Attainable. About 10 years ago I began a quest to complete all the 90s Stadium Club sets. I later revised that to 91-96, as those were easier to come by. 92 and 91 were relatively easy, but building the mid-90s ones took a bit more work. I'd find commons on CardBarrel and such, but a ton remained nebulous. I think within a couple trades on TCDB I finished the 1995 set, and a few days ago I finished the 1994 set. The 1993 set is also within reach now, and I'm getting the last couple 1988 Donruss cards I need to knock out THAT set. It's remarkably simple when you actually get over that hump.

-I guess I am kind of a player collector. I always had people I collected and kept binder pages of, but I didn't really see myself as a specific player collector. But then on TCDB you can track your collection of a player against everyone else on the site, and...apparently I have the 26th-most Curtis Grandson cards of anybody there? And my 71 Juan Pierre card make me the 18th biggest Pierre collector there. I'm just 10 removed from Night Owl. That's wild. But it also can tell me that I have more Randy Johnson cards than Derek Jeter cards. I may be a dedicated Jeter collector, but Johnson's cards are way cheaper. 

-White whales are easy to come by. A week or so ago, just to test things out, I made a deal for a 2000 Stadium Club Harold Baines card, one of only 2 where Baines is pictured as a member of the Cleveland Indians. A day or so ago it arrived. I've also landed contemporary cards of Harmon Killebrew as a Royal, Eddie Matthews as an Astro and Dave Parker as a Blue Jay. I can just do this now.

-There's a whole market for early 2010s Topps base parallels. I spent the better part of the week finding a whole bunch of 2010s Topps colored parallels, throwback parallels, rainbow parallels and the like. Not only do people have a lot of interest in these, but there's not a lot of images of them up on the site. That's another thing, thanks to my scanner I've been filling in all sorts of blanks in the image inventory, and that includes a TON of 2010 Topps vintage stock cards, which there doesn't seem to be any of on there. People also have a lot of interest in 90s Collector's Choice silver sigs and 2000s Topps Total border parallels. I'm glad some people have a use for 'em, cause I don't.

I might start posting trade results on here eventually, I just need to remember to and not race to thread the new cards into sets I'm building. All in all I'm glad I finally bit the bullet and did it, because this is the most invested I've been in collecting in a while.