Sunday, December 22, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Rays

 

In 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays finally saw consequences for being cheap sons-of-guns.

Not only did their latest cobbled-together budget team fail to make the playoffs, resulting in, for the first time since 2017, a non-competitive Rays team, but the top two teams in baseball were all teams that got to the end thanks to their payrolls. The Dodgers won by spending the most money this year, and thus the Rays lost because they refused to spend enough.

And then a month later a hurricane blew through Tampa and destroyed their stadium, a stadium so cheaply refined due to the reluctance of the team to build a new one until around now. So for 2025, the Rays will have to play home games in the Yankees' minor league park, meaning TWO MLB TEAMS will be playing their home games in minor league stadiums. And at least the A's can sign a high-profile free agent here and there. 

And so the Rays are here. Now without Isaac Paredes, and with the potential to try and flip Jeffrey Springs and Pete Fairbanks, with only the preexisting star power of Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Ryan Pepiot...and with virtually every other team in the division planning on upgrading. The Rays haven't finished in last place since 2016, which, fun fact, is the only time since 2007 that the Rays have even finished in last. They need to hope that small-ball works enough in 2025 to stay out of that 9 year recurrence. 

I think the most Rays event of the year was starting the season with literally no designated catcher, due to trading away Christian Bethancourt prior to the season, and going with Ben Rortvedt, who was only traded to Tampa midway through spring training...only for Rortvedt to miraculously develop into a winning starting catcher. Rortvedt never was healthy enough to make much time with either the Twins or Yankees, so getting a full season out of him was a real victory for the Rays. Rortvedt was an average catcher, but he was steady, and the defense was the draw, rather than the .228 average in 112 games.
2025 Prediction: I think Rortvedt is the answer for them going forward back there, though it won't shock me if they get a flashy name backup this year.

Last year, to distract from the fact that the only player in history to ever get an actual mega-contract from the Rays will never be playing another MLB game again, the Rays brought up the backup shortstop prospect, Junior Caminero. He was...fine. This year the Rays got Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario, then traded Rosario, and when there was room...brought Caminero up again. This time, in 43 games, Caminero hit .248 with 18 RBIs and 6 homers, a much more promising season that will hopefully lead to more starting time from the jump.
2025 Prediction: A really nice full season effort, with a 5ish WAR. 

At the deadline, despite trading some of their best pieces, the Rays managed some decent enough returns. In exchange for Isaac Paredes, the Rays received Christopher Morel from the Cubs, around the time he was beginning to lose playing time. Morel, a power-bat more than anything, hit .191 in 49 games with the team, with 3 homers and 9 RBIs. Clearly not what the Rays were hoping for.
2025 Prediction: An improvement, but I think Morel's better off as a DH going forward.

In a much better move, at least at the time, the Rays got Dylan Carlson from the Cardinals in exchange for Shawn Armstrong. The Cardinals would eventually cut Armstrong and allow for the Cubs to pick him up for the stretch. Carlson, meanwhile, hit .219 in 37 games, with 14 RBIs and 3 homers. I think he had a strong first week or so with the Rays then evened out. Ultimately, the Rays cut Carlson after the season, making the trade...entirely pointless.
2025 Prediction: Finds a 4th OF gig with somebody decent and has a good year doing that. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Red Sox, for a team that didn't make the playoffs, were very good this year, and there are a lot of really big pieces I didn't get to during the season.

Saturday, December 21, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Rangers

 

Virtually everything the Texas Rangers did this season can be rooted back to injuries. The two big rookies from last year, and the big rookie from this year, were limited by injuries. The majority of the rotation missed time with injuries, and most of them were actually doing really well before hitting the IL. One of the best offensive performers of the year wouldn't have happened without a big injury. And a season that was once again looking like an MVP caliber one from the team's star was cut short due to an injury. Regardless of the talent this team compiled to follow up their first ever World Series win, and regardless of how many were playing well, nobody could stay healthy. And so when it was up to the b-team, nothing was gonna happen.

Josh Jung's season began so happily, with a cheerful mic-ing up on ESPN during one of the first games of the season. The Rangers' 3rd baseman had such a great 2023 three that all eyes were on him for a satisfying follow-up. Ultimately, Jung's season would be cut short soon into April, resulting in Josh Smith taking 3rd for the majority of the season. Jung would return by the end of the season, but it'd be too late. In 46 games he hit .264 with 7 homers and 16 RBIs. Good while he was there, but he wasn't there for long.
2024 Prediction: Another All-Star season.

Meanwhile, Evan Carter, who had an incredible postseason last year, was primed for an equally satisfying full season of work. He'd already broken so many records for rookie performers in the postseason, now it was his turn to go all year. Except...like Jung, he didn't make it all year, and when he wasn't injured he only hit .188 with 5 homers and 15 RBIs in 45 games. Clearly this wasn't the season Carter wanted, and at 21 you can tell he's still got a lot more to prove.
2025 Prediction: Starts with a .280 average, proves this was just an early-career fluke.

With Gray, Bradford, Scherzer and deGrom all hurt, the next-nearest veteran at the helm of the Rangers this season was Andrew Heaney, who, admittedly, has been much better recently as a lower-tier starter. Heaney succeeded last year because he had coverage from Eovaldi, Scherzer and Montgomery. So this season, when the eyes were on him for 32 healthy games, he went 5-14 with a 4.28 ERA and 159 Ks, less than some of Eovaldi's numbers [and he missed 3 starts]. 
2025 Prediction: I think people are gonna learn the wrong lesson and a team with a majority youth rotation is gonna sign him to lead it. And I don't think it's gonna go very well for Heaney.

Leody Taveras, with Carter and Langford out for a bit, got a ton more opportunity to start this year. The 25-year-old, at best, is handy--he doesn't have to be the focal point of the lineup but he can give you some good plays and some good hits. This year he hit .229 with 44 RBIs and 110 hits, but more importantly he led the team in stolen bases with 23. He's still very useful, but I reckon once Carter and Langford can play everyday, and come into their own as they head into their 20s, Taveras will have less of a presence here.
2025 Prediction: Still has some contact and speed moments but, yeah, won't be starting by the end of the year.

The Rangers' bullpen surprised people, as their strategy of bringing on veterans actually worked. Kirby Yates had a comeback year, and David Robertson, now 39, had an extremely strong year staying in Arlington and doing his thing. In 68 games he had a 3.00 ERA, 99 strikeouts and a 1.7 WAR. He was the fourth-oldest player in the league this year, yet he can still get things done like he has all 16 years.
2025 Prediction: One more season, somewhere he hasn't played. It's halfway decent. And then he hangs it up.
As the starters fell, the Rangers decided to turn to their top prospect, former #2 overall pick Jack Leiter. Leiter had been developing for a few years but hadn't seemed to completely excel as he did at Vanderbilt. In 9 games in the majors this year, Leiter struggled, walking away with an 8.83 ERA, 3 losses, 31 Ks and a -1.6 WAR. Not a great start, but it took his father a bit to come into his own as well.
2025 Prediction: Some improved starts, but given that more people will be healthy next year and his Vandy teammate has lapped him in the depth chart, I don't know how many chances he'll get.

Much like his former Tigers teammate Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, on the way to definite Cooperstown enshrinement, was limited this year thanks to injuries. Though, per the theme, when he was healthy he was still peak Scherzer, which Rangers fans did appreciate. In 9 starts, Scherzer had a 3.95 ERA and 40 Ks, despite a 2-4 record. The big moment for Scherz came when he lapped Greg Maddux on the all-time strikeouts list, moving into 11th overall. He's 100 away from lapping Walter Johnson, for the record, and JV still has Scherzer beat by 9 Ks.
2025 Prediction: 2025, no matter who signs him, will be the last great season of Scherzer's career. He'll have gotten the injury issues out of his system, he'll have some truly great starts, and he'll be in position to retire on a high note.

I dunno, man, ever since leaving the Reds Tyler Mahle has had such troubles staying healthy. He barely was a factor with the Twins, he was signed by the Rangers knowing he'd miss half the season, and he made 3 starts for Texas before getting injured again. His line wasn't great, he had a 4.97 ERA, 10 Ks and a 0-1 record. And thus the reclamation project continues.
2025 Prediction: 20+ starts, and they're good. Unfortunately the majority of them won't be for the team that trades for him at the deadline. But for Pittsburgh or whoever has him the first half...*chef's kiss*

The Rangers knicked 2 different players from the Detroit Tigers right before the Tigers became huge without them. First their primary catcher, Carson Kelly, was added as an alternative to Jonah Heim. Kelly was passable in 31 games, hitting .235 with 8 RBIs and 2 homers. Andrew Chafin was also brought on to strengthen the veteran-led bullpen, which made this Chafin's eighth different MLB team since 2020, seven if you want to count the Tigers twice. Chafin was traded at the 2023 deadline as well, and the Brewers got the worse end of it. 2024 was somewhat similar, as the Tigers got the better season from Chafin; the Rangers got a 4.19 ERA and a 1.655 WHIP in 21 games. 
2025 Prediction: With the Rangers getting Higgy, Kelly will be headed somewhere else. I honestly think he'll be a nice piece for the Cubs, and possibly will outdo Amaya in some areas [UPDATE 12/13: Not too shabby!!]. As for Chafin, give it up for team #9, and possibly #10 if these trends continue. My guess is Toronto. 

And these last two pitchers were the 'well, what are you gonna do?' late season activations. Jacob deGrom, after already missing the World Series, missed 5 more months this year, and showed up in September after the season had already been lost. At the very least, deGrom's stuff was still incredible; in 3 games, he had a 1.69 ERA and 14 strikeouts. He hasn't lost his mojo by any stretch, it's just those injuries that have lessened his appeal. 
2025 Prediction: At long last consistent health, and a return to glory for the Rangers.

And then you have Jack Leiter's former Vandy teammate Kumar Rocker, initially drafted by the Mets, not signed, and then slyly brought over to the Rangers. Waiting for Rocker and Leiter to come up seems to have been more exciting than the reality of having them both in the majors, but Kumar Rocker did give the Rangers something to be excited about in 2025. In 3 starts he had a 3.86 ERA, with 14 strikeouts. Ultimately his control isn't there yet, and those 2 losses do speak to the quality of the 2024 Rangers. But he's definitely got a lot of time to come into his own.
2025 Prediction: Kumar Rocker will be getting Rookie of the Year votes. Lots of them.

Coming Tomorrow- The last remains of a Rays team I really couldn't find much to say about this year.

Friday, December 20, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Pirates

 

It's weird that despite the fact that the Pirates had more things go well for them, bought at the deadline, had a Rookie of the Year and a gold glover, and saw an incredible year for the rotation...and yet not only did they finish with the same record they had in 2023, but they finished in last, which they didn't even do in 2023. I honestly think the Pirates should have been more rewarded for their 2024 season. But this division being a crapshoot, coupled with a horrifying August/September skid, ruined them this year. And so, once again, the Pirates are bottom-feeders, and Bob Nutting's lucky John Fisher is a worse owner than him.

Not helping matters was the fact that, after two straight team-leading years, Ke'Bryan Hayes had a down year this year. Hayes missed time with an injury and only made 96 games this year, in which he hit .233 with 25 RBIs and 4 home runs. They honestly needed a guy like Hayes this year, and he let them down, despite incredible defensive numbers at third. Obviously he can come back from this, it was a rehabbing year, but...it definitely set his stock back a little.
2024 Prediction: Makes that ASG squad he should have made in 2023.

Thankfully, the Pirates weren't completely out of options in the infield in Hayes' absence, as they got a gold glove season out of Jared Triolo, who split the year between 2nd and 3rd and played both admirably. Triolo's defense is the real difference-maker here, he's a .216 hitter despite 9 homers. But that was honestly the leg up this team needed, as Triolo joined Hayes and Michael Taylor as some great defenders who cost the team at the plate. The good news is that Triolo's 2024 ensures that he'll definitely be part of the infield picture going forward.
2025 Prediction: A slight improvement at the plate. Not sure how often he'll get to start though.

Marco Gonzales had come off a few injury-plagued seasons for Seattle, was swapped to Atlanta prior to the season then flipped for cash two days later. Gonzales, kind of predictably honestly, had limited impact on this Pirates team due to injuries, but his material, especially initially, was pretty good. He had three excellent, consistent starts in April, then four weaker starts in July/August before being done for the year. Finished the season with a 4.54 ERA.
2025 Prediction: Minor league deal to see how long he can go before he gets hurt again, a surprise smash in the majors circa June.

Connor Joe's second year in Pittsburgh was pretty similar to his first. He was mostly used as an extra bat and bench piece, or he'd start at DH or 1B, but even compared to prior years his production was down. He only hit .228 this year with 9 homers and 36 RBIs. I suppose by his standards that's a pretty standard year, and you're getting him to just be an extra producer anyway.
2025 Prediction: Gains some new fans in a city he hasn't played in yet, does his thing there.

After his Sox contract ran out, there honestly wasn't much left for Yasmani Grandal to prove. His best years were with LA and Milwaukee, he's not as great both behind and in front of the plate, and he mostly just takes up roster space. But he still wanted to play, so he signed a year deal with the Pirates, and once he was activated he took the catching position over from Henry Davis. In 72 games he hit .228 with 9 homers and 27 RBIs, balancing out to a 0.6 WAR. Fine by most standards, even if by the end Joey Bart was the better option.
2025 Prediction: Backup role for a competitor. 

Michael Taylor was plugged into the Pirates' outfield as a defensive upgrade, and the team hoped he'd find the offensive production he wielded in Kansas City and Minneapolis. That did not happen. Though Taylor was excellent in the outfield, he only hit .193, with 105 strikeouts and 52 hits. The team cut him a week before the season ended and went with rookies.
2025 Prediction: Similar batting results, but I think they'll get a year out of him in a limited role, whoever does go for him [Anaheim?]

Nick Gonzales, after debuting in 2023, was the primary choice at 2nd this year, pairing with Triolo when he didn't have a position to cover. Gonzales was pretty impressive, hitting .270 with 49 RBIs and 7 homers, despite not being the greatest middle infielder. Mostly the team is just impressed that someone could actually hit for average this year.
2025 Prediction: Eventually loses the position to Nick Yorke but still stays an integral member of the team.

Of the two guys the Pirates got at the deadline, Isiah Kiner-Falefa was the bigger name, and was having the better 2024 to that point. The Jays loved IKF because of his versatility and defense. Upon arriving in Pittsburgh, he leveled out, hitting .240 with 50 hits, including 10 doubles, and 10 RBIs in 50 games. Maybe a little closer to his Yankees numbers, but nothing to be overly concerned with.
2025 Prediction: Well seeing as they hung onto him, he'll be a starter, a useful contact bat, and one of the shining stars of the Pirates' first half. This might be the place for this guy.

And then you have Bryan de la Cruz. De la Cruz was traded to Pittsburgh because he could provide a useful power bat. For some reason, on the plane from Miami, he forgot how to do that. In 44 games he hit .200, with 17 RBIs, 3 homers and 52 strikeouts, culminating in a -1.1 WAR. The Pirates cut him after the season.
2025 Prediction: Will have a bounce-back season with Atlanta, as he’ll make up for all those OF spots held by veterans this year, and will become an even better power bat.

Coming Tomorrow- Unsurprisingly I have a lot of Rangers. Not because they were good, just a lot of them got hurt.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Phillies

 

This is the thing about the modern playoff schematic. The Philadelphia Phillies put together an incredible team this year, one that was way better than either of the teams that made the NLCS. They were finally the alphas of the NL East, they had great seasons out of multiple starters, and they clinched a key playoff spot. But, of course, because they were in a position to lose momentum during a first round bye for the first time, they weren't able to advance past the NLDS round. A lot like the 2011 team, they had the better team, but not the luck.

That is Phillies baseball. You're rewarded every year except the one where you honestly deserve it. And even after this year, we're probably gonna make some major upgrades in the infield and outfield.

Edmundo Sosa is one of those guys we were lucky to hold onto, as after Trea Turner got hurt, Sosa plugged right into the infield and had a phenomenal year. Sosa's great because he's an above-average defender with some occasional hitting perks. So even as he was honestly a step up from Turner at short, Sosa also hit .257 with 31 RBIs and 7 homers, plus a postseason hit, which seemed hard to come by for this team.
2025 Prediction: A similar backup role with moments at the forefront, one that'll improve his trade case around the league. 

For as long as I can remember, the Phillies' bullpens have been a punchline, where despite all the attention put in it turns into a bottomless pit where great relief seasons go to die. So to have two of the single best relief seasons of 2024 come from two Phillies relievers is an excellent change of pace. Matt Strahm, who I honestly hope retires as a Phillie at this rate, was wonderful in a full season of relief, with a 1.87 ERA, a 6-2 record and a 0.750 WHIP in 66 appearances. Jeff Hoffman was the real surprise, as he was healthy all year and was truly incredible, with a 2.17 ERA, 89 Ks and 10 saves in 66 innings. Unfortunately both got lit up during the postseason, but they were both All-Stars, and they both had 2.0+ WAR seasons.
2025 Prediction: Strahm has another impressive year, even picking up more saves, while Hoffman is gonna make a lot of money thanks to this season that he may not completely deserve over the course of the forthcoming contract.

I never would have thought that for a portion of the season, the fans would be crying out 'why isn't Spencer Turnbull starting games over Taijuan Walker?'. Walker has been the more consistent pitcher over the last few years, and Turnbull's only consistency with the Tigers has been getting injured. But miraculously, Turnbull became a surprisingly awesome fifth option for us early, going 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 38 Ks in 7 starts. His bullpen work wasn't quite as good but I saw him do some amazing long mop-up work after Ranger Suarez left a start. Then, of course, as this is Spencer Turnbull after all, he got hurt and missed the rest of the season.
2025 Prediction: 12 very good starts somewhere, and a lot of missed time.

After Johan Rojas's debut last year, most fans were saying that Rojas would really be a help to this team once he figured out how to hit at the MLB level. A year later that still hasn't happened. Rojas's excellent defensive play keeps him in the lineup consistently for us, but at the plate he hit .243 with 3 homers and 32 RBIs. To his credit, he did steal 25 bases this year, and he is only 23. Something could develop, it's just not happening as quickly as the fans would like.
2025 Prediction: An improvement, but something tells me he won't be starting as often.

Weston Wilson was the real surprise this year, a super-ute bench bat that could show up without warning and provide some much needed help. In 40 games, he hit .284 with 25 hits, 10 RBIs and 3 homers. The word for Wilson is 'handy', because we've needed a fun bench guy like him for a while.
2025 Prediction: Becomes even more of a fan favorite and does something insane to end a game at some point.
Because of our lack of outfield pop, the Phils went and got Austin Hays from Baltimore in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez. I'm not sure if either side truly WON the trade, but Hays...did what he could, I guess. In 22 games he hit .256 with 6 RBIs, limited by injuries. He was hitless during the playoffs. The Phils have since cut him.
2025 Prediction: Clearly this season was the problem. Someone's gonna pick him up for cheap and he's gonna hit .300 and be a regular. 

Carlos Estevez joining the Phils was great for me because I specifically said 'we need to get this guy'. He was a consistent, fun closer in Anaheim, he looked like a great fit for the Phillies, I said 'go get 'im, and they did. While not quite as incredible as he was with the Angels, Estevez still did well in a closing role, with a 2.57 ERA, 18 strikeouts and 6 saves. He also struck out 4 in the postseason. Also, really cool that we had a guy this year whose closing celebration is doing a kamehameha from DBZ. 
2025 Prediction: I think someone will pick him up, but I don't think he'll be doing the bulk of the closing. 

Coming Tomorrow- For a team that didn't make the playoffs, the Pirates took a surprising amount of steps forward. 

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Padres

 

The Padres were so close to making something happen this year. 

They were looking at a 2-1 lead while still at home, were giving the ball to their ace in a game against the Dodgers' bullpen, and all they needed to do was show up and they'd knock the top team off the board and advance to an NLCS, like they did in 2022.

But they didn't. They got clobbered in Game 4, and then couldn't outdo two home runs by the Dodgers in Game 5. The Padres scored 21 runs in the first three games of the NLDS, and 0 runs during the two games that would decide the series for LA. And they'd been able to get past both the bullpen and Yoshinobu Yamamoto before. They just picked the exact wrong time to go cold. 

That, to me, is the turning point of the postseason. If San Diego is able to get anything done in Game 5, we have a far different final outcome. The Dodgers take off in Game 4, at the exact moment the Padres fall apart, and the Dodgers use this energy to win it all. I wish it hadn't happened at the expense of this Padres team, because they were the best team of the second half, and became absolutely unstoppable down the stretch. Machado had his fourth 100+ RBI season, Merrill came within inches of a Rookie of the Year award, Luis Arraez hit .300 with a third straight team, Dylan Cease was a hit upon arrival, and Mike Shildt really seems like a great fit for this team. 

I think one of the wildest things about the 2020s as a decade so far is that one of the most consistent extra pieces, in all five years, has been Donovan Solano. Since breaking out in 2020, Solano has routinely amazed everyone in bench and utility roles, and been a very worthy all-around hitter for San Francisco, Cincinnati, Minnesota and now San Diego. Though defensively he could only do so much as a corner infield cover, Solano was still very helpful as an extra bat, hitting .286 with 8 homers and 35 RBIs. Somehow he ended the year with a higher OPS than Xander Bogaerts, which he should be proud of.
2025 Prediction: As much as I'd love Donnie Barrels to keep this up, he'll be 37 this year, and I think he'll have a less lethal go of things in a bench role somewhere else. 

The big breakout bullpen piece, aside from Robert Suarez, was 25-year-old Jeremiah Estrada, picked up by the Padres after a few subpar years with the Cubs. Estrada had a pretty insane run in May, striking out 13 consecutive batters during a week. Ultimately, he'd finish with a 6-3 record, a 2.95 ERA and 94 Ks, a truly masterful year in a bullpen that relied on him heavily.
2025 Prediction: Nothing that incredible, but a solid season of work nonetheless.

The Padres' deadline moves were all really good this year, and they're all a big reason why the team came alive in the last two months of the season. I think everyone was a little confused when they got Martin Perez, as the Pirates kind of still needed him and the Padres were probably good on arms for the next two months. Yet somehow Perez and SD were an excellent match, as Perez went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 starts, striking out 44. Perez's Pittsburgh numbers were fine, but this was a really strong end to the year.
2025 Prediction: Sure, let's keep Perez's strong 30s going, he signs with a competitor as a low rotation piece and has a very nice full season.

The bullpen additions, though, made San Diego even more unstoppable. Bryan Hoeing and Jason Adam both had ERAs under 2 with the Padres, and the BIG bullpen addition, Tanner Scott, had a 2.73 ERA in 28 appearances, with 31 Ks and 3 wins. During the postseason, he was completely locked in, with 7 strikeouts and no earned runs in 5 appearances. 
2025 Prediction: Gets one of the bigger contracts for a reliever this year, and does a decent enough job for them, without being as indispensable as he was for the Marlins and Padres this year.

Very late in the season, to supplant Higgy and...ensure Luis Campusano didn't have to play as often, the Padres snapped up Elias Diaz from the Rockies, after being cut in favor of Drew Romo. Many Rockies fans thought this was the wrong call, and seeing Diaz sign with a competitor must not have helped. Diaz had 12 games as a Padre, and had 4 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. He couldn't get anything done during the postseason.
2025 Prediction: Is a fun backup catching option somewhere.

Coming Tomorrow- The Padres' running out of steam was quick, but the Phillies running out of steam was sharper, and honestly more shocking.

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Orioles

 

For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Orioles had an incredible regular season effort, with several stars and integral players, and yet couldn't turn it into anything in the playoffs. Being lapped by the Royals, who had a worse record but better September momentum, may have been the painful loss the Orioles needed to truly improve. Like, if you're not getting production from Adley Rutschman during the second half, you're not gonna get anywhere. That's one of your crucial pieces, and he's just not gonna do anything for you.

Jorge Mateo's 2024 was one of the most indicative seasons on the team, because he first lost a position to Jackson Holliday, then...outplayed Holliday, and was off to a blistering May, with 13 steals, 44 hits and 18 RBIs in 68 games. Then he gets hurt, is out for the season, and now the team is without a set plan at 2nd again. Urias, Holliday and Coby Mayo tried to make it up, to no avail.
2025 Prediction: The thing is, with Holliday, Mayo and Westburg all here, Mateo doesn't have much to do in Baltimore. I think he'll have some cool moments as a bench piece, but I wouldn't be shocked if the O's trade him.

Similarly, Ramon Urias also found himself sort of obsolete on a team with young, talented middle infielders. He did the majority of the filling-in at 2nd after Mateo's injury, and I would call his season fine. He ended with a 1.5 WAR, a .254 average, 11 homers and 37 RBIs. When you have Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg on this team, that's not gonna cut it.
2025 Prediction: I actually think he's gonna hit a second wind next year. Age-30 season, last opportunity to prove himself? Yeah, he chases 25 homers.

Dean Kremer, like Urias, has been an auxiliary member of these Orioles teams left over from the old regime, and because the main attractions tend to get hurt easily on this team, Kremer's gotten a lot of playing time over the last few years. Kremer stays healthy and stays relatively consistent, and that's really the bar right now. In 24 starts, Kremer went 8-10 with a 4.10 ERA with 123 strikeouts. Not bad, and for a guy picking up slack from the true aces, certainly useful.
2025 Prediction: Burnes will be gone, Means will be gone, and who knows how much Trevor Rogers we'll get. Kremer will likely make the rotation Opening Day, though I'm not sure if he'll still be there by September.

Going into this season it was clear that Felix Bautista would be off the table, and the strong bullpen of 2023 would need to step up in his absence. That means breakout Yennier Cano, who made an All-Star team by being practically unhittable during the first half of 2023. Cano's 2024 was, understandably, a step down from the previous year, but he was the anchor of the bullpen and was rather trustworthy. Cano finished the season with a 3.15 ERA and 5 saves in 70 appearances.
2025 Prediction: I think he'll have some truly great stretches considering that the pressure will be off a little with Bautista returning and Dominguez in a similar role.

When the Orioles signed Craig Kimbrel, especially knowing how rough he was during the home stretch of the 2023 season, they knew the risks. Kimbrel, in this stage, has become as famous for blown saves as he is for the moments he locks it in. And thus, the numerous games that the Orioles seemed to have a lock on only for Kimbrel to let men on and wreck things...were ultimately their fault in a sense. This was Kimbrel's roughest year in a while, as he had a 5.33 ERA, his highest since 2019, a 23-6 record in terms of saves, and a -1.1 WAR. Kimbrel didn't make it to September, the O's went with Dominguez, and thus that aspect wasn't an issue. 
2025 Prediction: Well whatever he does, it has to be a step up from this year, right? I think somebody will still give him a chance, maybe not as closer immediately, but he surely has gotten things under control, I hope.

Kyle Bradish and John Means began the year near the top of the Orioles' depth chart, and combined they made 12 starts. Bradish's injury was downplayed but he didn't join the team til May. In 8 starts, he went 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 53 Ks, definitely par for the course. But that worsened his UCL, and thus he needed Tommy John surgery, meaning he'll be out for the majority of 2025. Means, meanwhile, rejoined the team in May as well, and made 4 starts, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 16 Ks...then HE landed on the IL, and needed Tommy John surgery, his second. So in case you're wondering why the Orioles felt the need to trade two excellent players to Miami for Trevor Rogers, that's why.
2025 Prediction: Bradish will actually be useful to Baltimore once he's activated in mid-August, and help them towards the postseason. Means will sign a contract with Boston or somebody, and probably won't appear til after it's too late.

It's hard to be underrated on a team with so many great homegrown players, but Heston Kjerstad has remained an under-the-radar utility OF guy. He's yet to really find a permanent role on this team, but he's useful as a backup. Kjerstad, in 39 games, hit .253 with 14 RBIs and 4 homers, and was very useful as this team headed to the finish line.
2025 Prediction: Okay, so Santander will likely be gone, which means there will be an opening in the outfield. Either the O's go with Kjerstad and he finally breaks out, or the O's go with a contract and Kjerstad remains an endearing bench bat.
The reason I'm so skeptical about the O's giving Kjerstad a shot is that despite not especially needing him, the team still traded for Eloy Jimenez last year. They were fine at DH thanks to Ryan O'Hearn, and fine in the outfield, but they felt they needed one more solid bat, and Jimenez fit the bill. Jimenez didn't have a TON of truly terrific moments as an Oriole, as he hit .232 in 33 games, with 7 RBIs and only 1 home run, but the fans seemed to like him. 
2025 Prediction: A replacement level season with a bottom-feeder.
And after Jordan Westburg's injury, the Orioles took a flyer on Emmanuel Rivera, who wasn't really cutting it with the Marlins. Rivera actually had a solid second half with the O's, hitting .313 with 14 RBIs and 4 homers. His defense isn't great, but he can still contact hit, and was one of the team's best September performers. 
2025 Prediction: Between Westburg, Coby Mayo and Urias, it's gonna be hard for Rivera to find much of a place in this team, so I say he winds up somewhere else in a similar role.

Coming Tomorrow- I'm honestly shocked at how few Padres I have left for this month, but that's a testament to how many great players I already customized from there.

Monday, December 16, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Nationals

 

The Nationals, with another year of rebuilding after the dissolution of the 2019 squad, came very close to cementing a core for the coming seasons, by combining what worked in 2023 with new rookies who could immediately jump in and keep the momentum. You can definitely say that the 2025 team is gonna have more answers, and more confident answers, than the past few years. Yet at the same time...this team had two all-stars, one of them was just cut and the other was sent to the minors as a punishment for going to a casino to take part in completely legal, non-sports gambling.

And that's what kills me. C.J. Abrams should be in position to lead this team going forward, and yet I have no idea what his 2025 is going to be because I don't know how he'll perform with this level of organizational scrutiny on him. So that's depressing.

More depressing still is the deflation of Keibert Ruiz, from a can't miss prospect to...honestly, a perfectly serviceable catcher with minimal offensive production. This was Ruiz's best defensive season as a National, but he only hit .229 with 13 home runs and 57 RBIs. By most standards, fine. But it just seems like a step down after two seasons that rose in quality. This was gonna be a major centerpiece of the team going forward, and...I dunno, he's sort of evening out on the more 'passable' side.
2025 Prediction: 25 home runs. An improvement. As the team will be.

One of the reasons why I am confident that the Nationals will be better in 2025 is that, for the first time since 2019, they won't have to carry around Patrick Corbin's contract like a dead horse. In six years with the Nats, Corbin had one fantastic year, one okay pandemic-shortened year, and four absolutely miserable seasons, three of which saw him as a league leader in losses. This year he led the league in both earned runs and hits, as he made, like the previous few years, all of his starts. They just weren't very good. He finished with a 5.62 ERA, 139 Ks and a 1.500 WHIP. You cannot say the man hasn't been consistent as a National, as he's missed little to no time with injuries. He just...doesn't really have what made him so desirable in 2019 anymore. And the thing is, there were moments this season where Corbin was actually good, and it made teams mad. Like 'we're really losing to THIS GUY??'. But ultimately, Corbin is finally through with his contract, and the Nats can use his rotation spot to keep Irvin, Parker, Herz and Gore together all year. 
2025 Prediction: I know of nobody who'd actually see any positives in picking Corbin up, but somebody's clearly going to. He'll get his ERA closer to 4 somehow. Cause wouldn't it be funny if Washington was the problem?? Or if it was just the current administration that made him suck from January 2021 til January 2025? That ought to be STUDIED if that's the case, cause Josh Hader didn't drop off like that in this period.

Surprisingly, Trevor Williams, who was an Opening Day rotation member, actually put together an excellent season for the Nats, after a couple years of just bobbing along. In 13 starts, Williams went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA, plus a 1.035 WHIP. It's without a doubt the best pitching performance on this team, which makes it so unfortunate that after two months, Williams went down with an injury and didn't come back til September. It did pave the way for Parker and Herz, but it also robbed the Nats of a proven veteran starter.
2025 Prediction: A pretty useful back-half starter for a competitor, though he may have to pitch out of the 'pen upon overflow.
The saga of Joey Gallo is becoming less funny and more sad. Whatever this man could pull together in Arlington during the late 2010s just seems far rarer now, and all that remains is a below-average power bat. In an injury-shortened year in Washington, during which he may or may not have knocked up Mark Davis's S.O., Gallo hit .161 with 10 homers and 27 RBIs in 76 games. Thrilling stuff.
2025 Prediction: Wherever he lands next, he's not making it to June.

The single best relief performance of 2024, better than even Kyle Finnegan, belonged to Derek Law, the former Giants reliever who'd been trying to pull together a full season performance for years with no avail. The closest he got was last year in Cincinnati, but even that had its flaws. With the Nats this year, Law finally felt fully untouchable; in 75 appearances, Law went 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA, 76 strikeouts and a 1.9 WAR. The Nats needed a guy like him this season.
2025 Prediction: Nothing as fully healthy as this season.


During the Gallo drought, the Nats brought up Juan Yepez, former Cardinals power bat from the 2022 postseason, to play a similar role. Yepez surprisingly has become a lot more versatile in Washington, and managed to hit .283 with 6 homers and 26 RBIs in 62 games. Far more accurate than Gallo, that's for sure, and in a way that gained him a ton of fans.
2025 Prediction: Similar DH role, though with the occasional dry spell.

Now for a ton of the September/August rookies. In addition to James Wood, Mitchell Parker and D.J. Herz, the Nats brought up their other huge organizational prospect, outfielder Dylan Crews. Crews was brought up in a series against the Yankees, and if that's not a way to welcome somebody to the bigs, I don't know what is. In 31 games, the 22-year-old Crews hit .218 with 3 homers and 8 RBIs, plus a 0.6 WAR owing mostly to his outfield play. He's still new at this, but he's going into 2025 with some major league experience.
2025 Prediction: Oh, him and Wood are gonna set the league on fire next year. Probably not right out of the gate, but it's gonna happen.

Jose Tena was a Lane Thomas return that had no room in Cleveland to play consistently. Thankfully the Nats' infield plan is still in flux, and Tena got some nice time to prove himself there. In 41 games he hit .274 with 43 hits, 15 RBIs and 3 homers. There is some under-the-radar pop hiding in this guy, and he could be a nice piece going forward.
2025 Prediction: The Nats' search for an everyday third baseman is over. Tena has a full breakout year here.

And in a classy move, the Nats brought up Darren Baker for 9 games to end the season. Baker is no stranger to the MLB level, as he was a regular presence in his father Dusty's Giants dugouts. But now, one year after his dad's retirement, Darren finally gets his MLB shot. He got a chance to display his fiery contact work, with 7 hits including 2 doubles, giving him a .500 average to start his career.
2025 Prediction: The only thing about Baker is that I'm not sure if the Nats know where to put him, as the spots are filling up. I say he plays a bench role in limited appearances next year, but there's some incredible moments in there.

Coming Tomorrow- A lot of leftovers from an Orioles team that should have done more in the postseason.