Cease on Earth

 

So let's ignore for a moment...that the Blue Jays got the snot beaten out of them yesterday by the Colorado Rockies, and let's ignore that it happened because Cody Ponce immediately got hurt in his return to US pitching and handed it to a bullpen that completely collapsed given the opportunity to leg out the rest of the game, and let's also ignore that the Rockies went 0-3 against the Marlins and took it out on the Jays in a very similar manner to the 2024 Astros after getting swept by the Yankees, and while we're at it let's also blind ourselves to the fact that the starting pitcher that kept this team down was Tomoyuki Sugano, who 2025 Jays batters had a .291 average against with 16 hits and 2 homers in 3 games. 

Let's...ignore all that. The Jays began the 2026 season against the Oakland Athletics, a team that was actually expected to improve this year, and who are currently the only 0-4 team remaining. The Jays were able to diminish the output of Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler. Regardless of how the A's are able to even out, that still takes a fair amount of skill.

I am still of the belief that the scrappy play that got the Jays to a World Series last year is only gonna work that once. Both Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes are still hitless, Alejandro Kirk's sole hit so far has been a homer, and even with Andres Gimenez hitting up a storm, the absence of Bo Bichette still casts a large shadow on this team. I think they're just gonna have to alter their approach a bit this year, and actually shift to a more traditional lineup rather than the army of fill-ins that led them to compete. The additions of both Jesus Sanchez and Kazuma Okamoto lead me to believe that while contact is still possible, it may just need to be a bit more balanced now, and a bit less unpolished. Okamoto can hit home runs and help out with contact, and Sanchez's OPS is telling me he's branched out as well. We'll just see how sustainable it is.

Currently unquestionable though is the degree of excellence in that rotation. Gausman and Cease both had terrific opening starts, with Gausman proving he can still be dominant even in his mid-30s, and Cease proving the K rate isn't the only takeaway, regardless of how things go the third time through the lineup. I do think Cease and the Jays are ideal for each other, and he's better off someplace like Toronto than weighing out San Diego. While I do think the team will really appreciate it when Yesavage and Bieber come back, Eric Lauer is still a perfectly fine starting option, Max Scherzer came back for a reason, and I'm guessing either Ricky Tiedemann or Jake Bloss will fill in sufficiently in Ponce's stead. 

Right now, even with the Rockies loss in their rearview, the Jays look like the team to beat in the AL East. Yes, I'm aware that the Yankees also had a nice start. I'm just waiting to see how long it takes for their offense to come back after last night. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of the Rockies, a trusty infield bat for the team that made them start 0-3.

Coups in the Making?

 

This week, the two Western divisions came very close to flipping entirely. The Mariners were chasing the Astros in the AL, while the Padres briefly eclipsed the Dodgers in the NL. One of these has since been resolved, as the Padres were batted back down during their series with the Dodgers, but the Astros spent the weekend getting absolutely flambeed by the Orioles while the Mariners really only needed to just keep on target to not waste it. As I'm writing this, we're still waiting to see how the little league classic goes, and if it brings the Mariners within a half-game.

All I can say is that for a season that is succeeding now that the theme has become 'rejecting inevitability', it's a development I'd prefer. This season has seen big downswings for teams that were considered league superpowers heading into the season, like the Yankees, Astros, Mets, Braves and now the Dodgers. With one or two exceptions, the majority of the teams that competed heavily last year have struggled to deliver comparable follow-ups, citing atrophy, injuries or whatever the Yankees' excuse is this week.  You're seeing exciting stories like the rise of the Blue Jays, the Brewers' incredible run, and wild card cases from the Reds, Red Sox, and possibly even the Marlins. That thrills me more than 'well it's the Dodgers again'.

So this Dodgers-Padres series was a bit of a bummer. At this point the Dodgers do have leverage, and were able to outdo even heroes like Manny Machado and Dylan Cease this weekend. The Padres' main issue right now is their rotation's back half. Beyond Pivetta, Cortes and Cease, there's a lot of unsteady ground. Yu Darvish is worth some Ks but he's a bit shakier than his heyday for the Padres.  Cease, for the record, barely got through 3 innings against the Dodgers, as that lineup had him for breakfast. Despite 171 Ks, Cease is 5-11 with a 4.61 ERA. And the current strategy without King is to throw some pen guys out there and let Randy Vazquez do long relief rather than simply starting him. This is what happens when you give your two top starting prospects away for a catcher.

Fermin, by the way, has been an excellent upgrade behind the plate, and Ramon Laureano has had some nice games himself, already hitting .321 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs. Ryan O'Hearn, meanwhile, has run out of the magic that made him a star in Baltimore. He's only cracked 1 homer and 4 RBIs in 12 games. Not a great look at all. Furthermore, Mason Miller only has 1 start. I did not expect someone like Nestor Cortes or Freddy Fermin to be more pivotal to this team's success than Miller or O'Hearn. You really can never tell.

The Mariners have had slightly better luck with their additions. As has been well-documented, Eugenio Suarez is taking a bit more time than expected to get to Arizona levels of production, hitting .143 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs since joining the team. But Josh Naylor has been miles better, hitting .275 with 4 homers, 10 RBIs and 11 steals in 19 games. He has an .826 OPS already, higher than any Mariner who doesn't famously have a big ass. Naylor, as predicted, was exactly what this team needed, and has fit right into the lineup dynamic. Meanwhile, Raleigh's still rolling, with 46 homers and 100 RBIs, Randy and Julio are both headed towards 25 homer years [and 25 steal years] with aspirations of 30-30 years, and Cole Young seems to be a fixture in this lineup despite all that. 

And even with all the dysfunction they had earlier in the year, the Mariners' lineup is rolling again. Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert have put together great seasons, and George Kirby has been quickly catching up thanks to some excellent late-summer starts. This team also has a lot of really strong bullpen threats, and Caleb Ferguson's just the latest one. I genuinely think the Mariners are better put-together than the Astros, and have more to succeed with. They've struggled slightly against the Mets, but they still have the leverage.

Of these two, I think it's more likely to see a Mariners coup than a Padres one, but nothing's off the table. 

Coming Tomorrow- Another team that pulled an insane coup in the AL East, and became a league superpower. This guy was out of the league last year and now he's their secret weapon.

You Left at the Right Time

 I love that what Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease both have in common is that the season they leave the city that gave them the most success in exchange for a ride on a competitive team, they throw a no-hitter in their first season there. Both are responsible for the first two no-hitters in Padres history, and both have very similar career trajectories. 

And it's even more interesting that Cease was in camp with the White Sox earlier this season, and the Padres pulled the trigger on him relatively late into preseason. Unlike Musgrove, who found out he was going to San Diego at a normal time in 2021. So Cease got accustomed to San Diego, came into his own, and in his last three starts has struck out 25 and given up TWO hits. That's pretty damn incredible. 

Equally incredible is his no-hitter today, which could have been halted after 7 had Cease himself not reassured the pitching coaches that he had enough to finish it off. And sure enough, he did, and the Nats couldn't muster much, even in the waning moments of the games. It's very ironic that the last guy to get silenced by Cease was C.J. Abrams, a former Padre himself. It goes back to what I said earlier in the season about how wild the Nats-Padres matchups are now, cause both lost Soto and are battling with the prospects they got for him. 

Still, awesome to see Cease finish the job, and happy for the Padres to put another milestone on the board. I sincerely hope Cease's arm holds up after that.

Cease Change

 

Dylan Cease really went from suiting up for a last place team to getting to play for a second place one. There's a lot of moves this offseason that feel like not enough thought went into him, but he really got out of Chicago at the exact right time.

I think what's helped Cease get off to a blazing start, with a 3-1 record, a 1.82 ERA and 35 Ks, has been the run support. Pretty much everybody in this lineup has 10+ RBIs. Even people like Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, who are trying to get back to peak numbers, can still score runs. Cease is a great pitcher, but he really just needs the right circumstances to truly standout. Like, in the poorer White Sox years his numbers just didn't look the same. Last year he had a 4.58 ERA. Cease is going to show up, and he's going to deliver solid stuff, he's just very much at the mercy of the team, and even if the Padres haven't been perfect so far, he seems to fit right in there and has been relied upon a lot so far.

Now, granted...he's also being relied upon a lot because Joe Musgrave's struggling and Yu Darvish is hurt. Right now the Padres' rotation is made up of a lot of second choices, people like Michael King, Matt Waldron and Randy Vazquez. And while some of those guys are working out, especially Waldron, we're coming off a couple years of 'see all these stars pitch for the Padres'. Y'know, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, all these great guys. And now we're going with a lower budget kind of deal, which works, it's still efficient. But now a lot's been put on Cease, and while he's still doing great, it's...honestly not dissimilar from where he came from. Musgrove could still pull it together, but after getting killed by the Phillies the other day I'm not sure how long that will take. 

'People just not really showing up' is still honestly a theme in San Diego. Machado is certainly trying, he's now up to .260, with 4 homers and 12 RBIs, but people are still a little worried. Bogaerts is hitting .219, that's a far cry from where he was even LAST April. Cronenworth just seems like he's lost a lot of his versatility that made him great a few seasons ago. There are people like Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar and, well, Tatis, who are succeeding, but it's not really a full team effort right now. This is a sort of 'back to basics' approach for them, this season, and it's worked to some degree but there's a lot, and arguably more than in previous years, that just isn't working.

The D-Backs are slumping enough to give the Padres padding at 2nd, but I don't know how long that will last, especially with the Phillies still very hot. 

Coming Tonight: A lot of Boston pitchers are getting hurt, and if this one does I have no idea what they're gonna do over there.

Cease Offering

 

I'm gonna be honest here, I really thought that putting Pedro Grifol in Tony LaRussa's place would solve a lot of the White Sox' problems.

As it turns out, even the people who were playing well last year have gotten off to miserable starts. Dylan Cease was doing alright and now his ERA is more like 4.15 as more people have figured him out, not really elevating himself from Giolito, Kopech or Lynn, who are both still struggling. Mike Clevinger seems to be at least doing alright, but he's being a lot more selective with how hard he's throwing and, similar to Noah Syndergaard, is much less lethal than he was. So already, with a duller rotation, a lot of the White Sox' former appeal has dissolved a bit. Cease will probably rebound and have something of a strong year, but the idea of having a consistent rotation of these guys is even further than it was when Keuchel was still there.

Even stranger is that with all this talent signed to the bullpen, it's not doing much better. Kendall Graveman came off a career year and signed with the Sox, this season he's struggled. Joe Kelly is struggling, Jake Diekman is struggling, Jimmy Lambert is struggling. They have Reynaldo Lopez working the 9th and it's not going well. It's not a bad sign when you're waiting for a cancer patient to come back in order for your bullpen to work again. 

And then, and I never thought I'd say this seeing as how the Sox have developed their young hitters in the last few years, but this lineup really is missing Jose Abreu. I know, he's not doing that well in Houston so far, but Andrew Vaughn was a bit more accurate as a DH than a 1st baseman, and without a strong lineup anchor, everybody's sort of scrambling around trying to fill holes. Jake Burger's trying to be a lot of things at once right now, and it's only working so much. Moncada and Anderson are hurt, as per usual this part of the decade. Jimenez WAS hurt, now he's back and not hitting. Colas, Sosa and Romy Gonzalez haven't cracked it yet. Grandal has at least improved but now he's 34 and around replacement level. And even Luis Robert, who IS playing well, is now at the mercy of Grifol because he wasn't hustling last night! Even with all the herculean effort to build this team up, it really hasn't worked, and they're still here, circling fourth and disappointing people.

This team could come together somewhat, like it did last August, and it could completely turn things around in the coming months. But, a lot like the Padres, this is a pretty dire start for a team that made definite improvements over the offseason, and I really hope they have something to show for it at the end.

Coming Tonight: SPEAKING OF TEAMS THAT ARE DISAPPOINTING PEOPLE RIGHT NOW...

Cease and Desist

 

So uh...suffice to say April didn't really go as planned for the White Sox.

Ya know, Eloy Jimenez got injured, Dallas Keuchel can't pitch anymore, and they only won 2 games the entire second half of the month. And now the Twins are first in the division, the Sox are just under .500, and they're trying to still prove their legitimacy in the game while being held back by injuries, bad luck and, once again, being managed by the wrong person.

I equate the Tony LaRussa era of Chicago White Sox baseball to the Bobby Valentine era of Red Sox baseball. The difference, though, is that the Red Sox realized right away that Valentine wasn't the right fit, and fired him after a year, bringing in John Farrell and winning a ring. The White Sox meanwhile have continued to be successful even while LaRussa has clashed with the very factions of the team. Now they're showing visible signs of dissonance. I don't know if it will be enough for the organization to actually do anything about LaRussa, but I really don't think this team can go far with him at the helm.

What I do like about this team is their ability to reform under crisis. Jimenez is out, and Andrew Vaughn is out for a bit, but Gavin Sheets has been taking reps in right, Adam Engel has been starting, and A.J. Pollock has been healthy. They're DHing Grandal more, but it gives them more of an opportunity to start Reese McGuire, something he had a lot of trouble with in Toronto. Lance Lynn is still out with an injury, but not only has Michael Kopech made the most of his starts, with a 1.17 ERA over 5 starts, but somehow the White Sox have awakened the best of Vince Velasquez. I have no idea how, as I've seen this guy in truly dire spots in Philly, but...Velasquez has 2 wins and a sub-4 ERA. I hope he keeps it up. 

And while Luis Robert and Tim Anderson are already having great seasons, Jose Abreu is beginning to heat up, and while he's only at .230 now with 9 RBIs, who knows how high he'll be hitting in a month's time. The trick is making sure Grandal, Leury Garcia and Josh Harrison get to that point. Plus, Dylan Cease is finally pitching like an ace, with a 3-1 record, a 2.48 ERA and 39 strikeouts, the best numbers on the team. This is the kind of season the team's been waiting for since he came up, and it's nice that he can be truly relied upon, alongside Giolito and eventually Lynn.

This is not a bad team, this is just a team that's had terrible luck recently. And hopefully things turn around.

Coming Tomorrow- Last week I talked about a guy who'd been denied an AL MVP for too long and might be getting one this year. There's one of those in the NL, too.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: White Sox

 

What really happened with the White Sox this year is that even if they had an incredibly strong start, and were a favorite of many people watching the AL postseason race, they just weren't as good as the Rays, Astros or Red Sox. It was something we all kinda knew was gonna happen, but didn't want to, cause they were the most likable team in the race. Just fun stories, great players, a hell of a youth movement, and a lot of great seasons, plus the whole 'defy LaRussa' thread. But alas, taken out by Houston easily. One wonders if the outcome would have been the same if a certain DH that took the league by storm in April were on the roster.

The real signal that this was a great season for the White Sox is the fact that Dylan Cease had such a great season and I'm just now getting to make a custom of him. Cease had the most starts of anyone in the Sox rotation, led the team in wins with 13 [tied with Carlos Rodon], and led the team in strikeouts with 226, 25 more than even Lucas Giolito! And at 25, he's prime for more even better years.

2022 Prediction: An All Star nomination, another 200+ strikeout year, and a big postseason moment.

A fun rookie that came onto the scene after, you know, Yermin got booted, was Andrew Vaughn, the outfield bat that had a pretty nice go at things, with 15 homers and 48 RBIs in 127 games. Though his defensive skills leave a bit to be desired, he's a strong force at the plate, and could be a big piece of future Sox teams.

2022 Prediction: Starting DH, 30 homers, Jim Thome comparisons.

With two different outfielders missing time with injuries, and the third, Adam Eaton, being booted after 58 games, the White Sox tried a ton of replacement plans in the interim. The sturdiest one was Adam Engel, who's still a great defensive outfielder, and hit .252 with 7 homers and 18 RBIs. Yes, Engel seems to have accepted his role as a backup outfielder, but he's still a nice upgrade when that happens.

2022 Prediction: A similar role, with possibly even more offensive upside to boost his case for free agency.

After getting cut by the Guardians, Billy Hamilton signed a minor league deal with the White Sox, and was called up once Jimenez and Robert were out. Hamilton had something of a comeback year, with 71 games, 28 hits and 9 steals. Not quite peak Hamilton, but it was nice to see him utilized fuller.

2022 Prediction: More bench/utility work.

Playing a bigger role in the outfield quest was Brian Goodwin, a year after splitting between the Angels and Reds. In 72 games, Goodwin hit .221 with 29 RBIs and 8 homers. Probably one of the more accomplished replacement options before Jimenez's return.

2022 Prediction: Minor league deal, maybe some brief majors time.

As for the deadline deals, the big one was Craig Kimbrel, switching sides of Chicago to setup Liam Hendriks. Kimbrel, as he was landing in Chicago a few years ago, had a shaky acclimation period, with a 5.09 ERA, despite 36 Ks and a save in 24 appearances. 

2022 Prediction: Embracing middle relief, though the second Hendriks's magic wears off, you know he's jumping into the ninth.

And as an upgrade from Leury Garcia, the Sox traded for Cesar Hernandez, who at least gave them some good power numbers, 45 hits and 15 RBIs in 53 games. He's not quite the defender he was, and he's striking out a bit, but he was a cool little upgrade. Not quite a playoff-ready piece, though, though he did have some nice hits against the Astros.

2022 Prediction: A modest, quiet success in Washington. 

Tomorrow, finally, we take a look at some 2021 Yankees. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: White Sox

 

This was the White Sox team that made it to the playoffs, when so many others couldn't. Granted, they lose in a three-game series to Oakland despite Lucas Giolito pitching a gem, but this team felt more fully-realized and more accomplished than most other recent ChiSox incarnations.

Though not as statistically interesting as he's usually been, Yoan Moncada had another decent year in Chicago. He only hit .225, but had 24 RBIs and 6 homers. Yes, it's a comparative down year, but Moncada is still useful as a clutch bat, and as a top-heavy infielder. He should be fine for the foreseeable future.

2021 Prediction: An ASG nod and some higher offensive numbers.

Though not to the caliber of his season in Milwaukee, Yasmani Grandal's first year in Chicago was at least entertaining, with 8 homers and 27 RBIs despite a .230 average. The bottom line is Grandal is still one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball, and the White Sox still have him wrapped up for three more years, so even if he's not immediately a standout, it's still good to have some much-needed power numbers from him.

2021 Prediction: Your 2020 starting catcher for the AL All-Star team. 

Dylan Cease's sophomore season went pretty damn well, honestly. He had a 5-4 record in 12 games, a 4.01 ERA and 44 strikeouts. Despite giving up a few too many earned runs, he still made a name for himself as a consistent, strong middle-rotation starter.

2021 Prediction: 10+ wins, 200 Ks, outdoing Keuchel. 

After a strong season as Yankee DH last year, Edwin Encarnacion was given a large contract to recapture the magic in Chicago. Didn't exactly happen. Edwin hit 10 homers, but also hit .157 with 54 Ks. He's no longer able to hit for average, and his power numbers are lessening. 

2021 Prediction: The ride ends. I don't think anybody's gonna sign him.

Meanwhile, Alex Colome had another strong season of closing games for the Sox, with 12 saves on a 0.81 ERA in 21 games. Colome still being an elite closer 6 or 7 years after his come-up is a rarity that I love seeing, even in a shortened season like this one.

2021 Prediction: Gets a two-year deal to be a ninth-inning man in San Francisco, and gets an ASG gig or two out of it. 

Among the many big stars that landed in Chicago this year was Nomar Mazara, coming off some strong years with the Rangers. Mazara was limited by injuries at the top of the season, and when he eventually got to the lineup, he hit .228 in 42 games. His stats were nonexistent, even from a contact perspective.

2021 Prediction: He'll be a cheap signing that'll pay off this year and cause someone to overpay next year. 

Adam Engel got a ton of starts this season, which usually means they're out of outfielders in Chicago, but this season it was a plus, as not only was Engel his usual defensively-excellent self, but he hit .295 with 12 RBIs in 36 games. Yes, he's really a spare part and an outfield sub, but for a better White Sox team he had a bigger role, which helps.

2021 Prediction: After getting some great games in with a crowded outfield situation, gets traded at midyear to a lesser team for a HUGE piece. 

A week or so into the season, the Sox called up Nick Madrigal to join his fellow prospect Luis Robert in the majors. Madrigal was injured for a little bit of time, but still took hold of the starting 2nd base gig and won over fans with contact hitting, batting .340 with 11 RBIs in 26 games. Madrigal is a nice little piece, and I can't wait to see what he does in a full season.

2021 Prediction: Gets a batting title for leading the league in average, and will have a high hits total as well.

The other big in-progress rookie for the Sox this year was Dane Dunning. Dunning debuted the same night as Casey Mize and had the better start, and the better year. In 7 starts, Dunning had a 3.97 ERA with 2 wins and 35 Ks. He was a major piece of the rotation heading into the stretch, and it's so odd that his Sox year will likely be a footnote considering his recent trade to Texas.

2021 Prediction: Leads the Rangers rotation in ERA and wins. Even is Kyle Gibson has a halfway decent year, Dunning's gonna be the true crowdpleaser in that rotation

The Sox' main trade deadline conquest was getting another outfield option, so they plucked Jarrod Dyson from Pittsburgh. Dyson bat .300 in 11 games, mostly as a bench bat, and had 3 hits and 2 steals. Not much, but exactly what the Sox needed- speed and versatility. 

2021 Prediction: A similar role in a non-competitive team. 

Yolmer Sanchez spent Spring Training with the Giants, and was cut prior to the season, yet because Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn are kind to players who do well for them, Sanchez rejoined the White Sox without having played for any other teams. Sanchez was used as an infield fill-in, where he returned to his gold-glove roots and hit .313 with 5 hits in 11 games, mostly starts. 

2021 Prediction: Will be a full-scale starter for the O's next year in Iglesias' absence.

Coming Tomorrow- The last post of Uncustomed Heroes, which means it's time to dissect yet another Yankees team that didn't make it to a World Series. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: White Sox

It's weird talking about the 2019 White Sox knowing that they're going to look a lot different in 2020. We already know that Yasmani Grandal, Cheslor Cuthbert, Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Mazara, Tayron Guerrero, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and several more years of Jose Abreu will be at Guaranteed Rate Field next year. Also, at least one of the players in this post won't be with the team in 2020.

Either way, the White Sox had moments of the spark hitting, and for a good month in May, they were doing pretty well in mid-standings. But...it didn't last too long, and though they ended up in third, it was in front of two 100-loss teams. So in any other division, they might be in at least fourth with their  89 losses.

Yolmer Sanchez, a charter member of these middling Sox teams, had another decent year in 2019, getting his first gold-glove at 2nd, and cleaned up in the field despite his subpar batting numbers.
Why Him in 2019?: ...he got a gold glove! And I should have done him during the season.
2020 Prediction: Will suit up for another team, but maaaay not be a starting option.

 Dylan Cease was the big rotation rookie call-up this year, making his debut in July and hedging some meh starts in order to have a 3 ERA and a positive W/L ratio in September. 81 Ks in 14 starts isn't a bad start at all.
Why Him in 2019?: Filled in for Michael Kopech as the rookie arm standout
2020 Prediction: Will have to fight for a spot in the rotation, and may not be a factor until midseason.

 In terms of bullpen assets, you had Aaron Bummer, who...went by Bum during Players Weekend, and if Madison Bumgarner is MadBum, d'you think that makes Aaron 'HappyBum'? I dunno. Anyway, Aaron Bummer was the relief specialist for the Sox this year, with 60 strikeouts in 58 appearances, a 2.13 ERA, and the best bullpen WHIP for guys with over 30 games notched.
Why Him in 2019?: Top-tier bullpen guy for a dire team.
2020 Prediction: His numbers will take a dip, but I still think he's gonna chase 100 strikeouts with his usage.

After splitting 2018 between Kansas City and Phoenix, Jon Jay stayed in Chicago for the 2019 season, despite missing some time due to injury. Once he made it onto the roster, he hit .267 off the bench with 44 hits in 47 games.
Why Him in 2019?: Veteran feel-good bench guy of the team
2020 Prediction: Not sure who has a place for him, but I expect a minor league deal to lead to some playing time eventually.

Coming Tomorrow- The last new customs of 2019, some members of my beloved, World-Series-less-for-the-decade Yankees.