Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Twins

I think it's as simple as this. The Minnesota Twins had the team this year. They were on track to make the playoffs with a month and a half left to go in the season. If Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, Lewis and Ryan stay healthy, they get there. Those six players are the heart of this team, and even in partial seasons accomplished so much. But for large swaths of the season, the majority of this group was hurt. Miranda and Lewis came back, Buxton and Correa would try and jump back in, but it was enough of a gap that the Royals and Tigers caught up and reduced them to fourth, just a year after finishing in 1st and winning a playoff series.

The injuries in Arlington and Atlanta may have gotten more publicity, but the injuries in Minneapolis turned a wild card favorite into a surprise onlooker. And it's very funny that Rocco Baldelli is showing the same 'never the same quality in consecutive seasons' tactic he had as a player. 

Trevor Larnach, barring the first couple weeks of the year, was a rare Twin that stayed healthy this year, and provided needed power assistance as the go-to DH this year. In 112 games, Larnach hit .259 with 52 RBIs and 15 home runs, and had a .771 OPS. Larnach has become a pretty reliable member of the young pack of hitters, and this year was another nice leveling up at the plate.

2025 Prediction: Another step further, hitting .276 with 25+ homers.

Because the Rays wait until the exact moment you're not expecting them to move you to move you, Manuel Margot was dealt to the Dodgers at the very beginning of the offseason [in the Tyler Glasgow deal], then moved over to Minnesota right at the end of camp. Margot had a chance to win a ring this year, but fate had other ideas. And so, Margot, now in a crucial OF role with the Twins, had his weakest season to date. In 129 games, Margot hit .238 with 31 RBIs and only 4 stolen bases. Three season after his defensive peak with Tampa, Margot was below average defensively and struggled at the plate. For the first time in his career, Margot will be facing free agency this year.

2025 Prediction: I honestly think the Rays'll bring him back. And he'll do better.

 

Kyle Farmer had his best statistical season to date last year, thanks to some excellent defense and strong contact numbers. This season, with an injury to recover from and other infield options getting play, Farmer's appeal was significantly lessened. In 107 games he hit .214 with 25 RBIs and 5 homers. Both defensively and offensively he was below average this year. 

2025 Prediction: Has something of a rebound year with Denver, though I doubt he'll be starting all year. Then again, if they trade McMahon he certainly might..

Matt Wallner was ushered into the young hitting group last year, as he took advantage of a late call-up and became one of the most refreshing hitters in the lineup. This year was very similar: he wasn't with the team initially, but once he got there he was a very helpful fill-in and helped the OF depth tremendously. In 75 games he had 37 RBIs and 13 home runs. And an .894 OPS, which is pretty fantastic.

2025 Prediction: Kepler's likely gone, Margot's gone, Larnach's primarily a DH...I think Matt Wallner's got a starting OF spot next year, and I think he's gonna be a serious ASG candidate. 

Chris Paddack came over in a trade in 2022, and considering that the Padres received Brent Rooker and Taylor Rogers in the trade, it's kinda wild that Paddack's lasted longer. Ultimately, 2024 was the Sheriff's most prolific year in Minneapolis, though still injury-shortened. In 17 games he went 5-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 79 Ks. At least a little closer to his 2019 breakthrough. 

2025 Prediction: Well, it's his last year before free agency, so watch him go absolutely wild out there.

Not only was Griffin Jax the Twins' best reliever of the season, he was one of their best players period. In 72 appearances, Jax had a 2.03 ERA, 95 Ks, a 2.8 WAR and 10 saves. Jax had a higher WAR than Pablo Lopez this year, which I would not have called. For a guy who didn't work as a starter in Minneapolis, I'm glad he's found a real niche for these guys.

2025 Prediction: I don't think the follow up will be as prolific but he'll have some great relief appearances. Perhaps less of them.

It was handy to have a consistent guy like Griffin Jax around because the closing option, Jhoan Duran, was less consistent this year. He finished the season with a  6-9 record, a ton of blown saves and only 23 saves. Duran can still throw as hard, but I think he just wasn't as unhittable as he's been in prior years.

2025 Prediction: Either he rights himself and becomes a great closer again or he blows his arm out and misses time.

Austin Martin was the other piece of the return for Jose Berrios, aside from Simeon Woods-Richardson, who was very useful this year. Martin got plugged into numerous roles this year, as he plays both the outfield and some infield positions. Unfortunately he doesn't play them very well. His very unpolished defense at least distracted from his passable offense, but while he hit .253, he only had 16 RBIs and 1 homer in 93 games. 

2025 Prediction: Honestly, I think he gets cut at some point.

So, Carlos Correa got hurt, then Royce Lewis got hurt, and there was a vacancy at short. So...in comes Brooks Lee, the Twins' top infield prospect, to get a taste of the majors. Unfortunately the 23 year old couldn't get much done at the MLB level, hitting .221 with 3 homers and 27 RBIs in 50 games. With both those guys back in 2025, I'm not sure what kind of role Lee will play with this team.

2025 Prediction: If the Twins get good enough that they need to make a big deadline deal, Lee will be the top piece going to a competitor. And THERE he'll blossom into something.

Towards the end of the year, the Twins called up two pretty well-regarded pitching prospects to start some games. Paddack and Ryan were hurt, there was room, let's get the kids up. Zebby Matthews had a really rough go of it, but David Festa, who was around for 14 games, did decently, with a 4.90 ERA and 77 Ks.

2025 Prediction: Will make camp with the team, but he's gonna have to be used in long-relief for a bit.

Coming Tomorrow- Mercifully, not very many White Sox. 

Wild Card Series' Day 2: Well, That Was Easy

 

I mean, I kinda assumed one of these Wild Card series' would go all three, but damn. Two days of games and we're out. Alright then. Makes it a lot easier.

I think the MLB guys knew that the Rangers-Rays series would have the most obvious outcome, which is why they played 'em so early. The Rangers came within inches of a division title, as did the Rays, but of the two teams that petered off after the first half, the Rangers still felt the most like a contender. Meanwhile, the Rays' starting pitching paled in comparison to the Rangers', and just putting up Nate Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, ironically two ex-Yankees, was enough to silence the Rays for good. The biggest takeaway from this wild card series was Evan Carter, the rookie who homered his way into legitimacy among Rangers fans, and made himself just another big part of the team's future. The Rangers may not meet with their sworn enemies immediately, but I see this Rangers-Orioles series being tough, potentially going all 5 games, and taking the most out of both teams. Honestly? The Rangers might be able to win this one, if the pitching stays as solid on their end.

The Twins winning rights two MLB wrongs. One is the obvious, giving them a series win for the first time in two decades. The other has been bugging me for years: the last time a central divisional team won a playoff series was 2019, and it was those stinking Cardinals. All of the 2020, 2021 and 2022 campaigns went without a single playoff series win by any of the ten teams from the central divisions. The 2019 Twins, 2020-21 White Sox, 2022 Guardians, and LITERALLY ALL FOUR CENTRAL TEAMS THAT MADE THE 2020 PLAYOFFS, could not advance. So having the Twins finally break that streak felt really good. 

It's also cool that somebody like Willi Castro got to play a big part in this win. The Twins have gotten material out of their stars, but they've let Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, Bailey Ober and Edouard Julien have their moments as well. This is a very fun Twins team, and them advancing was honestly a foregone conclusion after their September. I just hope they have enough to take down Houston. Could you IMAGINE an ALCS year for Minnesota? Wouldn't that be awesome??

The Diamondbacks taking their Wild Card series was one I sort of saw coming, even if I still figured the Brewers could sneak up when they least expected it. But somehow the Arizona bullpen shut these guys out in later innings, and the D-Backs lineup kept raining down on this once-strong Milwaukee team. Evan Longoria had the big moment last night, and tonight Tommy Pham brought in an RBI and cemented his place on this team. Pham's had a troubled few years, but I think he's evaded some of his rotten luck and is back to doing things right. 

The D-Backs will need a lot more of this luck to evade the Dodgers, who, like usual, seek to claim an easy playoff spot. I see a slight chance of an upset, but the D-Backs will have to work for it.

And, once again, we have the hometown team. I was a little nervous when Thomson put up Nola for this game, as he's only briefly shown true greatness this year. I shouldn't have worried. Nola went 7 strong without allowing any runs, and worked some true postseason magic while Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner and Stott made swiss cheese of the Marlins' pitching. Braxton Garrett getting lit up I could have guessed, but the bullpen as well? Andrew Nardi, who's been excellent this year? This team really is legit. 

The Phillies will need to hope lightning strikes twice against Atlanta. Miami was very much the easy part; the Braves have one of the most ferocious offenses in the majors, and while there is the factor of lessening momentum, which did cloud their September, the Braves still could be trouble. I could see this series going either way. I just want to believe the Phillies can make this happen. The stars look like they're aligning. They just need to keep fighting.

And as for the fallen:

The 2023 Rays team were...a Tampa Bay Rays team. They're all the same to me at this point. They all do the same things, use the same kinds of players, have the same issues. This year's had a ton more pitching injuries and the single most unfortunate thing to come out about a guy they have signed for 10 years. I assume there will be players traded this offseason to offset costs. Manny Margot, I hope you haven't signed a lease in St. Pete..

The one sad part of the Twins advancing is that the Jays, who will once again end their surefire playoff run right after it's started, still can't deliver on their promises. They have the team, they have the foundation, they certainly have the pitching...they just can't get it done. And yanking Jose Berrios, thereby undoing the thread that held this game together for the Jays, was the most heartbreaking part. Had he stayed in, there's a chance they would have legged it out.

I hope next year is the year things change. Though, again, if everybody in the AL East competes, it still could be very difficult for them. 

Similarly, since 2018 the Brewers haven't gotten anything done in October either, and this team, despite a strong regular season finish, fell to a wild card team, the only division leader this year to do so in this round. Sal Frelick was one of the few people that made me think the Brewers could make it close, as he contributed to an early offensive boost before the 5th and 6th innings. 

The Brewers need to ensure that the team consistently succeeds at the plate. Cause having 3 guys that can hit isn't gonna cut it going forward. Not when the Cubs and Reds also exist.

I genuinely thought the Marlins were gonna make it a 3-game series. Out of all of them. With Josh Bell hitting as well as he was, I thought they could drum something up against the bullpen. But with no Sandy Alcantara, no Eury Perez, and the feeling that something was missing from this lineup, there was no chance for them. Aside from Bell, no other Marlins really did anything too special this series, and it saddens me, because they looked so fun during the heat of the season.

It will be tough for the Marlins to try something like this again, but not impossible, especially if everyone stays healthy. 

So now we've got our division series' matchups. Some I think I can predict, some I don't want to even try. I just know they're gonna be interesting. The absolute worst case scenario is getting a boring outcome. We do not want Astros-Dodgers again, or even honestly Astros-Braves. I wanna see something I've never seen before. Two teams that haven't been here in a while, or have NEVER been here, and can make an entertaining, enjoyable World Series experience. I just hope that isn't too much to ask. 

Margot For It

 

The Tampa Bay Rays were in danger of falling out of the playoff picture after a miserable start to August. However, since August 12th they've been 12-4 and now have 70 wins. Which means...the Rays will once again be a competitive nuisance in the playoffs this year, it seems like.

It's interesting that the Rays have gone on this tear since getting Manuel Margot back from the IL. Margot has been fantastic all season, and though the injury did put a dent in things, he still has a .302 average, 32 RBIs and 64 hits in 59 games. Margot has been a contact beast for the Rays ever since coming over, and he's aiding this lineup now by making it feel a bit more full. The Rays can have fun with their dutiful band of role-players like Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi and Francisco Mejia all the want, but people like Margot add pop and add the kind of energy that most normal competitive teams have.

I mean, I've talked about this before, but the Rays don't operate like normal teams in that they don't have big stars that dominate the statistical fields. A lot of the team's best players are people that aren't big names but succeed in very niche statistical categories. Taylor Walls is not hitting at all this year, but his defensive skills have made him the fourth-highest position player in WAR on this team. Jeffrey Springs and Jason Adam are incorrigible homophobes who won't get vaccinated, but both of them have ERAs below 3 and don't seem to want to go away. And as good of a team anchor that Randy Arozarena can be, Isaac Paredes is still leading this team in RBIs.

This Rays team is succeeding without Kevin Kiermaier, Tyler Glasnow, Wander Franco, Mike Zunino or Andrew Kittredge. That's NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN. Imagine if they make the World Series. Joe Buck is really gonna be struggling to talk about the Rays whenever they come up. "And here comes Yu Chang, he has three hits already tonight, uh...John, what'd you do over your vacation?'

It frustrates me because this team does have traditional stars that could be doing something, like Brandon Lowe and Corey Kluber...and none of them really are. Kluber is having a smooth but pedestrian season. Lowe is hitting .234 with 8 homers in 61 games. The Rays wanted Lowe to be the Dustin Pedroia of this team, and instead Yandy Diaz is the guy holding things together. It's baffling. I suppose it's nice that Shane McClanahan is playing the role of the ace and delivering a season that definitely will get him some Cy Young votes, but it's really just him.

I dunno, the Rays just defy logic. They'll probably do really well, do it on no budget and then trade most of these guys away for the people who'll give them the next 5 years, and then repeat. Like the Astros, a very well run organization. But man is it boring to see them just buy a win for 50 cents every damned year when my teams overpay by the millions and fail miserably when everyone watches them.

Coming Tomorrow- A major rookie for the Braves. It could be one of several, honestly.

Margot Ahead

 

Alright, here come the Rays after all...sort of.

It's still a very weird year for the AL East. No one seems to be where they should be except for the Orioles. The Yanks are still circling last, the Sox are still hanging onto first, the Jays are still trying to climb back up, and the Rays...I THINK are doing alright right now.

It's honestly hard to decipher. This team is good for the AL East in April, but it's not really a good Rays team. Brandon Lowe, Kevin Kiermaier and Willy Adames, three people that made this team a contact titan last year, aren't hitting right now. The once expansive, anyone-can-make-it-here bullpen has been reduced to...Diego Castillo, Ryan Thompson, Andrew Kitteredge and anyone under contract who can stay healthy. Hunter Strickland has a job here now. That never would have happened in 2018. On the plus side, the Rays now have a reliever that's younger than the franchise in Luis Patino. 

I mean, in the simplest of terms...do the Rays have a working ace? Yes, they have Tyler Glasnow and his 56 Ks. Do they have a strong power-hitter? Yes, they have Randy Arozarena with 11 RBIs while still hitting .300. Do they have some strong hitters that could propel this team forward for a bit? Yeah, Joey Wendle, Manuel Margot and Francisco Mejia are all hitting for average, even in smaller roles [again, because Mike Zunino hits for power, even if he doesn't hit for average, he'll always have a job somewhere, the pissant]. 

They just do not have the depth, the surprise factor, or even the farm system protection they had last year. Today they bring up Shane McClanahan, for real this time, and he gets bounced after 4 innings of the A's having fun with him. We're in the buffering period between the shifts of the youth movements, and we're sort of at the awkward point where we're waiting for Wander Franco's class to get a little better in the minors before they can help this team. Not that it needs a ton of help, as the Rays are doing well enough at 2nd, but...I don't think what they have now is enough, at least at the current moment.

Maybe things shift next month and the real Rays reveal themselves, but until then...I'm not sure about this team. The Red Sox look mighty, the Rays look...tired.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Ray, now working on bringing his current team back to the top after a soggy start. 

Division Series' Day 2: Conveniently Placed Longballs

 After limiting the Cubs to 1 run through 2 games, the Marlins gave up 9 to the Atlanta Braves yesterday, setting the tone for a very explosive NLDS grouping. From an opening Ronald Acuna homer off of Sandy Alcantara to a 4-RBI-day from Travis d'Arnaud, the catcher who, until last year, was thought of as a liability due to his injury-prone nature. Max Fried had a solid start, despite giving up some runs. It was a solid look for the statistical leader of the two, and a big start for this series.

Monday was Carlos Correa's day to hit 2 home runs. Tuesday was George Springer's. One off Sean Manaea, one off Yusmeiro Petit. Yes, Reddick and Correa also helped, as did a fine start by Framber Valdez, but the A's were once again afraid to elaborate on an early home run by Khris Davis. The A's seriously need to figure out how to get past this team, because...they had such a head start over Houston, and now they're once again falling victim to Houston's October momentum. And I seriously thought they were better than this.

Game 3 is today. The A's haven't decided who they're putting up against Jose Urquidy. If he didn't put in 2 scoreless innings yesterday, I'd suggest Mike Minor, but hopefully either Jesus Luzardo or Mike Fiers has a good start left in them. 

I was never expecting my Yankees to sweep the Rays.

Especially considering how good this Rays team is. I mean, talk about getting a nice assortment of useful players rather than big names. Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena and Manny Margot all hit home runs for them last night. Tyler Glasnow had the nice start. All these anonymous relievers are keeping the STAR-STUDDED YANKEES at bay. So a win like this, where even if the Yanks put up 5 runs, 4 of which coming from hot-as-hell Giancarlo Stanton, they still lose to Tampa...I imagined we'd get one of those.

I honestly wish Boone had let Deivi Garcia run out the start. I think he's ready. 

Because these days, if the starter doesn't run out the start, there's something seriously wrong. And Mike Clevinger's arm tensing up after an inning and change is the sort of thing that warrants getting pulled. So instead of getting prime Clevinger material, the Dodgers went against middling Garrett Richards material, and scored a ton of runs off of him and Matt Strahm. Not to say the bullpen strategy didn't otherwise work out for San Diego, as they still have an awesome 'pen, but...that pen against peak Walker Buehler seemed a bit lopsided last night.

Buehler went only 4 innings, but struck out 8, and only let through the game's sole Padres run. I'd say that's the kind of pitching performance the Dodgers were looking for from him. Hopefully Kershaw continues his reliable streak today against...whoever the Padres put up. 

Margot Away

Really not much else to say about the 2019 Padres.

It's weird. Around April, we were all seriously thinking this team could do some damage right along with the Dodgers, but...that didn't exactly pan out. I feel bad for the Padres, because this is the second or third time the roster's been revamped in some way to make for a competing year only for things to fail miserably. Their average divisional standing this decade is 4th place. Their highest ranking was in 2010, when they came in 2nd place (somehow). So...what I am saying is the Padres haven't been good since they lost Adrian Gonzalez.

...which a lot of the fans would agree with, I think.

I mean, this roster has Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, and...well, they HAD Fernando Tatis for the first 3/4ths of the seasons, but after that injury they may not get him again til 2020. The Padres also have gotten a strong season from Manny Margot, despite him not hitting many home runs, and some power from Eric Hosmer despite a lot of strikeouts. But you look at what's NOT there...like Franmil Reyes, and Kinsler and Tatis with injuries, as well as Wil Myers' average. You have people on the bench like Josh Naylor and Francisco Mejia working, but...the two big prospects that were supposed to aid this team this year, Ty France and Luis Urias, aren't doing very well at all.

And the rotation, which was strong for a fleeting moment, has become a bit more haphazard than I'd hoped. As good as Chris Paddack and Joey Lucchesi can be, and as impressive as Cal Quantrill's rookie year has been, you still have meh stuff from Matt Strahm, Eric Lauer and Dinelson Lamet, though I will admit that Lamet is slowly getting better. The problem is that as impressive as a lot of these guys can be, they are, at the end of the day, at the mercy of their team's offenses. It's not like Luis Castillo or Jacob de Grom, who can defy any team no matter the run support.

The Padres have done everything they can, but...at the end of the day, at the end of the decade...they are still the San Diego Padres. And once again...the Padres don't mean much in the story of the season.

Coming Tomorrow- With the losses of three of his team's biggest performers, he instantly became the team's active WAR leader. In his rookie year, at age 20, he's leading his team in WAR. And he already placed second in this year's Home Run Derby. Tomorrow the world.

Margot Away

More fun with the 2018 Padres. And by fun, I mean painful rumination of what could have been.

The Padres are 18.5 games behind the offensive...far and away the worst team in the NL...now completely stripped of any pitching talent, now that Jordan Lyles and Tyson Ross are gone. Right now, their highest WAR is from Kirby Yates, a reliever-turned closer, with 1.7. Wil Myers and his .273 average are right behind, but he's on the DL.

And behind them...a mess of failed prospects, misguided contracts, and spoiled talent. NOBODY is doing well. Manny Margot is barely staying afloat. Christian Villanueva has struck out a ton of times. Only Myers and AJ Ellis are hitting over .260. The staff ace, Clayton Richard, has a near 6.0 ERA, and only Joey Lucchesi has enough starts to back him up, though Matt Strahm's starts have looked good.

The pitching's depleted. The hitting's limp. The team has basically no future, at least not immediately, and...it may not get easier to watch for a little while. I don't know what else to say but that.

Coming Tomorrow- He hasn't exactly won 30 games yet, but he's still been a fixture for the Yankees lately.

Everything Must Margot

Leave it to custom cards to make players from awful teams look absolutely badass.

Manuel Margot landed in San Diego after they traded Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox. He's a huge bat with some definite skills in keeping pitchers at bay. His main job this season has been to keep patrons of PETCO Park from leaving the park. This is especially difficult, seeing as the Padres are terrible.

This is a rickety team already, as it's basically become the 'Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte and 28 other guys' show. There's no pitching, the lineup's mostly untested, and the division's stacked with 3 teams that can easily beat the shit out of them. So while Manuel Margot's been doing pretty well, even if he does have a solid rookie season, it'll most likely be a lost cause.

Look, there are a lot of players in San Diego right now that are hitting a ton for power, like Austin Hedges and Ryan Schimpf, but aren't at all hitting for average...or particularly well otherwise. Nobody's really succeeding, and the bulk of the team is pedaling forwards  but going backwards, which isn't a great sight.

There's not a ton of chances for success in San Diego this year. Right now, they're just gonna have to finish the season, clean up the damages, and move on.

Coming Tonight: HE'S doing well??? Rays Edition.