...And Expecting a Different Result

 For the past two seasons, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates have flirted, in fleeting moments, with legitimacy, and have yet to actually capitalize on it. While the window isn't exactly closing for either team, this may be their most crucial season yet to compete. The Brewers, as good as they were last season, aren't exactly a shoo-in for 1st, and may have to sweat it out like everyone else [rather than just waltzing to first like the Dodgers likely will]. The Cardinals may still be bottom-feeding, the Reds may be another year or so away, it's all kind of up in the air. And it may not be for long.

The Cubs have come the closest to actually competing, and for the past two seasons have finished second with an 83-79 record. Just a dash above .500, just a smidge away from a wild card spot. Same record and everything, two years running. And this is the Cubs in the Bellinger era, the team that can sign talent and piece together a competent lineup but still isn't all the way there yet. Clearly changes needed to be made. I didn't think one of them would be 'trading Cody Bellinger for a Triple-A pitcher' but here we are.

Miraculously, the Cubs still managed to attract strong upgrades this season, like Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ryan Pressly and, honestly by accident, Ryan Brasier. Even with the probability of a rookie like Matt Shaw or Gage Workman nabbing an infield spot as Nico Hoerner heals up, this is a pretty great looking lineup, and it might have the most potential production of anyone in the NL Central. Swanson, PCA, Tucker, Happ and Amaya all look primed for great years. The rotation, which, for the first time in 10 years won't have Kyle Hendricks in it, also looks pretty well rounded. The goal is to get a more 2023-esque year out of Justin Steele, who took a good couple months to get there last year. Steele has looked pretty good this spring, as have most of the rotation so far. It's also reassuring having Ben Brown as a pretty strong depth starter if things go south.

But again, there's no telling how this team will fail to meet expectations as well. Who'll go cold at the wrong time, who'll just refuse to play well. Ideally this doesn't happen, but it just keeps tending to, and so I'm kinda prepared for it. 

The Pirates, meanwhile, have had collapses that are far sharper, and arguably funnier. The Pirates began the 2023 season as one of the best teams in baseball, and had a terrific record in April. And then the schedule evened out and they sort of gelled into their mediocrity. Last year the Pirates were at .500 at the All-Star Break, and with Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz all having terrific seasons, it looked like they had a chance, even becoming buyers at the deadline. But their torrid August and even more pathetic September led them to a last place finish. It looked avoidable, and yet it still happened. 

This is very much a sign of the Bob Nutting teams, circumstances that seem advantageous that don't seem to work as well as before. The Pirates still have Isiah Kiner-Falefa from that competitive week, and while he does look to factor into this season at short, there's a ton of young competition throughout the infield, guys like Billy Cook, Nick Yorke and Enmanuel Valdez. Even Jared Triolo has been designated the professional utility man, and Spencer Horwitz seems to have taken 1st from him. IKF is looking to at least have a decent year, but even he might be in danger of a midseason trade if the youth progresses otherwise. 

Ultimately, even if the lineup has a few too many question marks, the rotation looks great. Skenes and Jones at the top, Falter and Heaney in low positions, and Mitch Keller still steadily providing strong work even if the stats don't always show it. Keller, despite the higher ERA, still made all his starts last season and still notched 166 strikeouts. This will somehow be his age-29 season, and hopefully the team will give him a firmer backing before his prime years end. I think he's gotta be thankful he's no longer the ace thanks to Skenes, but he still has a lot of responsibility in this rotation, and I think he still has time to capitalize.

The Cubs have the best put-together team, but the Pirates have a chance of surprising people and becoming a fun team down the stretch, a lot like the Tigers last year. If the NL Central shifts this year in favor of one of these guys, I think I'll honestly be here for it. 

Eagerly Awaiting the Payoff

 

Not everyone makes it as easy as Paul Skenes.

Sometimes you hit the ground running and give the team everything they've been hoping for immediately, with no learning curve. Paul Skenes took to the minors with the same energy he brought to LSU, and then to Pittsburgh with that continued energy, with no drop-off period. Limited innings maybe, but no drop-off. But then you have guys who'll struggle to live up to their reputations and make you wait. And either you stick with them or you give up. Joey Bart never got to become the successor to Buster Posey. Casey Mize looks really good in Spring Training play, but will it amount to a true comeback? The Tigers are holding out to see if it does.

In 2024, two of the biggest rookie prospects, and two very high draft picks, made their debuts. They were both demoted within a month. They both got a chance to resurface, and one sort of powered towards greatness, but both teams are waiting on full season efforts that capitalize on the hype. And yes, some guys just get there. Bobby Witt was FINE his first season and now is positively elite. Aaron Judge struggled to hit .200 in 2016 and can now hit .300 while also hitting 50 homers. Sometimes guys take time. 

What amazes me is that the Baltimore Orioles nearly gave up on Jackson Holliday, their kingmaker prospect, by including him in potential trade packages for Tarik Skubal. It didn't happen, but it nearly did. And yes, maybe Coby Mayo could have replaced him, maybe he was never intended to be in there, but...people did mention the possibility. This was when he was back in the minors. He had to be aware of the idea. 

In 60 games last season, even taking in account the midyear spike upon reentering the majors, Jackson Holliday hit .189 with 23 RBIs and 5 homers. By and large, he was basically a .219 hitter that fell victim to a really rough April call-up. Holliday's August delivered the majority of his offensive output, with 4 of his 5 homers and 15 of his 23 RBIs. If we can distill the energy of that August and stretch it over a whole season, preferably in a season where Holliday is older than 20, we could have something here.

So far, in 6 preseason games, Holliday is hitting .250 with 4 hits, 2 RBIs and a homer. This is an improvement, and proof that he's finally beginning to figure out MLB pitching. Not overwhelming proof, as NRI guy Vimael Machin has technically been more on target, but things are beginning to pick up. Holliday is poised to start the year as the everyday 2nd baseman for the O's, even if Ramon Urias still factors into the picture. The team still trusts him, and I think he'll capitalize on that this season.

Then you have Jack Leiter, another 2nd generation MLBer, one who was drafted 2nd overall and was a big star at Vanderbilt. Unlike Holliday, Leiter struggled in the minors before getting his act together in Triple-A, hence the 3 year development period. The MLB results once Leiter made it were...less than preferable. In 9 games, and 6 starts, he had a 8.83 ERA and 3 losses. It stuck out even more when Kumar Rocker, his old Vandy teammate, made it up and did a lot better. Rocker didn't win any games either, but he was a lot better at keeping runs down.

The Rangers have three rotation spots nailed down. Nate Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray. Tyler Mahle will probably get the fourth spot, provided he's healthy enough by the end of camp. And that last spot is down to Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Leiter. Bradford has way more MLB level success, even if he was injury-limited last year. Rocker has some serious perks and hasn't really bombed in the majors yet. And Leiter...outlook-wise brings up the rear. He hasn't done much successfully in the majors, or as much in the minors. So far Leiter has been used as a bullpen piece in camp, and he's been fine. Rocker has gotten rocked, but he's been trusted to start. So that means Leiter, a lot like Dane Dunning, might be a depth guy this year, used in relief from the jump but could start if people get injured. And with deGrom, Mahle and Bradford in the equation that's a pretty large possibility. 

So that's where we are. The Orioles still have faith in Holliday, while the Rangers are losing faith in Leiter. This could be the season where one, or both, turn things around. Or not. And both teams have to decide how to respond to that. 

On Supremacy, Inevitability and One-Upmanship

 

After winning the World Series by signing Shohei Ohtani, the best player in the game, to a mega-deal with deferred payments, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Roki Sasaki, the best young pitcher in Japan, Blake Snell, one of the best pitching free agents on the board, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, two of the best relievers available, Hyeseong Kim, an impressive Korean infield phenom, and Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez, two of their most notable 2024 pieces in danger of leaving in free agency, and still had room left over to bring back Clayton Kershaw for another year, bring on Michael Conforto as a veteran OF piece. 

...and the other 29 teams have to just go on and do the season anyway knowing that the Dodgers, already the best team in baseball, just made themselves ten times better. 

The argument I hear most often in regards to the Dodgers, and to a lesser extent the Mets, breaking the game with big contracts and deferred payments, is 'well if all the other teams cared as much as the Dodgers brass about cultivating the best team, they'd spend whatever they could.' And it's an argument that makes...some sense. Like obviously someone like Bob Nutting or John Fisher isn't going to give billions away to players, because that's not in their business MO. The idea is getting someone like Steve Cohen, who WILL give all the money he has away to get Juan Soto and Sean Manaea, and that only happens if someone like Nutting or Fisher realizes the problem is them and sells the team. And just as a general point, no multimillionaire is ever going to have that moment of sudden self-awareness. They're all so removed that they're not gonna snap to it like the average person is expected to. It'll only be when they get bored and want something bigger. 

But there are a lot of teams that DO have the money to pull in big players, like the Angels, the Tigers, the Blue Jays and even at times the Rays [remember, they had all that money to offer the one guy they really should have done a background check on], and are either outbid or don't have the full circumstances to win over free agents. Of course people are gonna wanna come to LA, especially if they're getting paid all that money. A lesser deal to play somewhere like Detroit or Toronto isn't going to cut it comparatively. So yes, other teams can try, and they can go for broke trying to rope in the best players, but there's a reason the best players keep going to the Dodgers or the Mets or Yankees. Ultimately there is something appealing about playing there that the other guys just can't match. 

And so here we are. The Dodgers are too stacked, and are heading into a season where they're the overwhelming favorite. Even if people get hurt, and with this pitching staff that's always a possibility, there's tons of proven backup options. The infield is also stocked with plenty of depth options. Tommy Edman can play 2nd, 3rd and the outfield. Enrique Hernandez can play second or the outfield. Chris Taylor, and yes he is still here, can play multiple infield and outfield positions. Even Hyeseong Kim is a 2B/OF type. Andy Pages, and ultimately James Outman, are there if outfielders get hurt. This team has so many contingency plans that keep them one of the best teams in baseball even if people get injured, and that is in direct response to last season, a season which still ended in a World Series for them.

The great thing about baseball is that nothing is truly written, and there are circumstances that can rise and unseat predictability. But with a Dodgers team this good, is there anything they haven't prepared for? Is the window of this team riding high then losing in the NLDS fully closed? Or is there hope for an underdog to exploit a weakness this team hasn't thought of yet? I'm hesitant, especially after last season, but hopeful. 

Short Left

 

One of the big stories out of the baseball world today was the rise of 6'6 Yankee centerfield prospect Spencer Jones. I've kept tabs on him for a while, as I'd always heard very good things, and he's turning out to be a really nice, hard-hitting outfielder. Like Aaron Judge, he's big and tall and hits like crazy. People were worried about Soto leaving and I reminded them that Jones wasn't going anywhere. Between him and George Lombard, the youth has been giving Yankee fans lots to be excited about this spring.

But of course, the Yankees doing well means that across the country the Houston Astros are no doubt thinking of ways to get the better of them in the end, especially after a shellacking the other day. Which is why, to combat the Yankees' plan for a 6'6 centerfielder, the Astros have invested in an, um...5'6 left fielder. 

The idea of moving Jose Altuve to left emerged during talks with Alex Bregman. They basically said, 'look, if Isaac Paredes is our third baseman, we can sign Bregman to play 2nd, even if it means moving Altuve to left'. And the thing is, getting Altuve out of 2nd does feel like a step in the right direction for this team. Yes, Altuve has a ton of all-star nods and silver sluggers, but he's only won a single gold glove, and it was 10 years ago. The last three seasons, Altuve's defensive infield skills have been several points below average, as his journey to becoming a one-dimensional power hitter continues. The Astros have Mauricio Dubon, and they have Brendan Rodgers, and those are better defensive bets than Altuve right now. So, as it doesn't make sense to DH him with Alvarez holding court there, the die was cast and Altuve was moved to left field.

There's uh...a few fundamental issues with that. And I understand the irony of me saying this someone who is 6'7. But, you see...there's the thought that maybe a lot of balls are gonna fly over Altuve's head out there. Look, if they're arcing at chest level he'll be fine, but he is not the 'leaping catch' kind of outfielder that even Kyle Tucker was able to be. Jose Altuve's height has been the punchline of the MLB for a while, and this is just a sight gag waiting to happen. 

I think there is a case to be made that the Astros wouldn't put Altuve there if they didn't have immense trust in him as an athlete, and his ability speaks for itself. One of the most consistent hitters in the game, one of the most driven athletes, and someone who can help you a million different ways. But putting him in left is a risk that may not pay off. Boston learned this when they tried making Hanley Ramirez an outfielder, they learned the limits of Ramirez as a defender very quickly. Not everyone is Mookie Betts. 

What this says the most to me is that the Astros are desperately trying to reinvent themselves to distract from how many people are leaving. Verlander's gone, Tucker's gone, Bregman's gone, Pressly's gone. An outfield of Altuve-McCormick-Meyers, even if it's not BAD, stands out. George Springer used to be here, Kyle Tucker used to be here. Even Jeremy Pena, and let's be clear here, a very good shortstop in his own right, has the unfathomable task of trying to match up to Carlos Correa, and he's only done so much. The Astros have Hayden Wesneski and Ryan Gusto in position to start games in case any one of the many guys on injury watch can't make it to Opening Day. Everything about this team screams 'diminishing returns to me'. And yes, the Astros are the kind of team that can make things happen with nothing, but without Tucker? Without Dusty Baker? With Altuve in left?

Also, the big feat for me might be starting this custom season with the three teams I enjoy talking about the least. The Red Sox, the Cardinals and the Astros, including Altuve. Just getting 'em out of the way. I usually leave them for last this month. 

Nolan Noncommittal

 

The regular season is less than a month away, and several of the last unanswered questions of the offseason are finally being wrapped up. Jose Quintana just signed with Milwaukee. Both Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks look like they'll be ready for April. All three Japanese pitchers in LA are headed for big years. And yet there's still a pretty big unknown looming as we head through March. The Cardinals are still going with Nolan Arenado, despite their frequent attempts to trade him to save cap space. Regardless of the deal that was supposed to happen with Boston [before Bregman was signed] or New York [which is allegedly still on the table], Arenado is still reporting in Jupiter, and still very much a part of the Cardinals' 2025 plans.

And yet there's still the threat that he won't be. People have continued to use the term 'audition start' for a lot of Arenado's Spring appearances thus far, and it's getting to the point where Arenado is not only aware of it, he's getting pretty tired of it. There's the slightest possibility that these starts may be him trying out for, well, the Cardinals' 2025 roster, and not the Yankees' roster or the Astros' roster or whatever the hell. And he's trying to convey this, while also aware that the Cardinals' ownership, as any Cardinals fan can tell you, are actively trying to rebuild this year, hence them also shopping Erick Fedde for a hot second. 

Now, Nolan Arenado, on paper, should have a good case for anyone to snap him up. He's one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, his prime seasons make him a likely Hall of Fame candidate, he'll cross 350 home runs this year while averaging 25 per season, and he's really only ever missed 15 or so games per season. But the last two seasons have seen dips in quality both at the plate and in the field, resulting in a very average year for Arenado in 2024. If he'd been a 5 WAR guy again last year he'd have already been traded, and possibly could have joined Goldy, another future Hall of Famer primed for a bounce back year, in New York already. Even at 34, Arenado is still elite, trustworthy and impressive. But I think that after the Donaldson thing, the Yankees are afraid to trade for a past-his-prime third baseman again. They're already taking a risk with Goldschmidt, they can't afford both corners to be post-peak guys. Not in a year where they're trying to replace Soto; 2014 had a similar plan and it didn't go well.

So far this spring, Arenado has been fine. He's hitting .214, with 3 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. Perfectly serviceable. Not elite. Not worth trading for. At this rate, maybe a midseason deal? Or maybe someone will swoop in this month anyway and take a chance. It could turn out fine, as he's still Nolan Arenado at the end of the day. But even in the search to finally remain on a true competitor, is Nolan Arenado really the right guy to rely upon in 2025?

Still, the Yanks may bite anyway. I think they've tried Stroman for Arenado straight up and that didn't fly. Maybe they retool it and surprise people. Or maybe somebody else surprises me. 

What's That Coming Over the Hill?

 

The beginning of the spring training season is usually seen as a time of promise, hope and excitement. As a Yankee fan, though, there is this tinge of worry this particular preseason. Not only are the Yankees battling a tumultuous offseason, where we let Juan Soto get away, pissed off Marcus Stroman, couldn't trade for Nolan Arenado and extended Aaron Boone, and looking at a season with Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Gil and Scott Effross missing loads of time...but, uh...the Red Sox are looking good.

Last year, the Red Sox had a team that was good enough to beat us when we weren't looking but not good enough to make the playoffs. Clearly the Alex Cora formula works, and there are so many young pieces that are helping this team return to prominence, but they just weren't good enough. So the team responded by signing Walker Buehler, Alex Bregman and Aroldis Chapman, trading for Garrett Crochet, and ensuring that both Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks would be healthy for the start of the season. In case you thought the AL East was too competitive last year, here we go again.

I say this like the Yankees didn't retool themselves. They signed Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt and traded for Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams. They did stuff too. But what they've done is they've taken the money they would have spent on Juan Soto and spent it on two older hitters and a pitcher who's great when he's healthy but has missed time in the last few seasons. They're trying to get back to where they were last year. The Sox are headed forward. Everything they've done in the past few months has been a forward step, because they want the division again. 

Now, as much as Fried could be a liability for the Yanks, Garrett Crochet could be one. You all remember what he did from 2022 to 2023, right? Sat on the bench rehabbing. Like Luis Gil, he was great in 2021, injured for two years, and then incredible last year. Such is the nature of hard throwing pitchers these days. Gil might be missing some time if that MRI comes back dirty. Crochet is similarly playing with fire. When he's healthy he's incredible, but last year the White Sox started limiting his innings just to keep him healthy. Strategically, it may have been to ensure that if they did trade him, which was likely, they wouldn't damage him by overcooking him on a lost season. 

This explains why Crochet has been excellent so far in Spring Training play for Boston, and why the Sox aren't especially worried about keeping him at the head of the rotation. They're also very flexible right now, and while the plan is to go with Crochet-Bello-Giolito-Buehler-Houck for Opening Day, if Giolito and Crochet [and Buehler now that you mention it] are giving them pause they could always stagnate their starts and go with Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts [and in this rotation he sure will] in a pinch. This is a very smart response to pitchers getting injured too easily, just pack the rotation with too many good options and if they all get hurt you still have depth. The Reds should pick up on this unless they really want to start Carson Spiers every year.

I should also mention that, like the Yankees, the Sox are dealing with a smidge of controversy themselves this year, with Rafael Devers taking umbrage with Boston getting another All-Star third baseman. The ideal world is Bregman playing 2nd, but how successful will that be? Remember, Trevor Story moving to second made him even more susceptible to injury. It's gonna take placating Bregman and Devers at the same time, which can be difficult individually. Hopefully this works in a way that Devers, still one of the best Red Sox around, can remain a part of this team going forward, because losing him would be a mistake. The Yanks bobbled Soto, the Jays are bobbling Vlad, but this could be just as bad.

So I'm going into 2025 expecting the Red Sox to be competitive, and to have some very high upsides. It'd be wonderful if the Yankees, even without Soto, found a way to be even better.

The Stars Are Out: The Rest of 2024

 

Another year where I kept forgetting to find moments to post the Stars Are Out customs. Topps bringing back the First Pitch insert set may have contributed to this as well, since they're documenting first pitches I'm only sort of needed, cause I kinda only do the cool niche ones anyhow. No matter. There was still some left, so before I start rolling out 2025 customs, here they are.

I'm starting with Patrick Willis, not only because he's one of the few sports-related first pitches I documented in this batch, but because I've met the man. Million years ago, back when he was still playing with the 49ers, a mutual friend introduced me. Great guy, soft spoken. Treated me like an equal, despite me being young and decidedly not an All-Pro linebacker. Willis was one of the best of his era, and he deserved his HOF enshrinement. Awesome that he still gets a nice welcome in SF.

The Braves had two different OMG music stars take up the pregame this past year for first pitches. Somehow Usher, the bigger star of the two, had the comparatively humbler approach. Usher's still a really big deal, and his Super Bowl halftime show was very good. There were a ton of photos to choose from of him at Truist Field, this was a pretty good one. Then Ludacris not only did a first pitch, but did so in this insane getup, with massive arms and massive feet. That's the real feet there, trying to throw out the first pitch with massive foam hands. Subtlety isn't exactly Luda's strong suit, but hey, it's certainly an original one.

Advertising mascots. ADVERTISING MASCOTS THROWING OUT FIRST PITCHES. This is where we're at, people. This is the degree of modern capitalism here. I think Jake from State Farm did one last year as well. Wondering who's next. LiMu Emu and Doug? The Aflac duck? The Green M&M? 

Arguably as confusing as an advertising mascot throwing out the first pitch, Jared Leto throwing one out at a Mets game. I'm still not sure what Jared Leto's deal is. If his acting's meant to be like that on purpose or not. He also just shows up places randomly. Last April fool's day he was randomly hosting Wheel of Fortune, and it was never addressed. Why him? Why Wheel of Fortune? Why are we validating the guy that starred in 'Morbius'?? Who knows. I don't even know if he's a Mets fan at all. Chloe Grace Moretz did one at CitiField, and her I can buy as a Mets fan. Jared Leto...does he even know what sports are?

So the Guardians have essentially adopted Machine Gun Kelly, and gave him his own promotion last year. I like that they're giving back to a famous Clevelander who loves the team and wears his Ohio upbringing on his sleeve, but right as the sun is rising on the Guardians as a league threat, the sun is setting on Machine Gun Kelly as a credible musician. Like, what has this man done in the past two years that's in any way worthy of preservation? Hell, the Guardians seem to be alright with the fact that MGK's walkoff win during the Celebrity Softball Game was done under the influence of hallucinogenics, so I don't know if they really can be too choosy right now. He's theirs, and he likes coming to games...and the Kelces are harder to get. 

We'll end on these two, these are much cooler rock music gets. Jerry Cantrell is the driving creative force behind Alice in Chains, he's not only the reason their songs kicked so much ass in the 90s but he's the reason for their underrated 2009-2018 comeback, where he honestly held his own as lead singer. Alice in Chains is a very cool band, and Cantrell, though doing his solo thing right now, is a rock legend. He's not from Ohio, but he rolled through Cleveland and the Guards thought 'what the hell'. 

Tom DeLonge, meanwhile, is from San Diego, and wears his SoCal roots on his sleeve. DeLonge was doing his own thing for a bit, running Angels and Airwaves, searching for UFOs, but he's back with Blink-182 now and they're...at least making successful music. I can't say it's as good as their 2000s stuff, even as someone sort of ambivalent towards it. But he's happy, healthy, thriving, and probably still chasing UFOs. Good to see him throw one out in San Diego. 

It remains to be seen if I'll be doing more of these this year. I might anyway. Topps is gonna go for the big stars and probably not for the fun ones I care about. So I guess there's a niche carved out for me anyhow.