Saturday, May 25, 2019

The Reds are Still Technically in This

First of all, I do love the barrage of fancy throwback uniforms the Reds are rolling out this year, including these old blue ones from the 1900s. Just classy enough.

Now...the Reds, as last-placey as they are, are still 7.5 games behind the 1st place Cubs, which is the narrowest margin between a first and last place team this year. They also have amassed 22 wins, second only to the Mariners as far as last-placers go. Plus, the Reds have six players with WARs over 1.0, which is the second most of all last-placers (bested by Seattle again).

What I'm saying is that the Reds, even if they are in last place, are still a good team. And they still have a shot at climbing up the standings and potentially NOT being a last place team.

Let's twist some more numbers to prove my point. The Reds are three games behind the fourth-place Cardinals. The Reds have a narrower margin to usurp the Cardinals than the Padres have to take first place from the Dodgers, which is 6 games. The Dodgers have also won 7 of their last ten, while the Padres have won 4, making the chase for San Diego very difficult. Alternatively, the Cardinals have won 3 of the last ten, while the Reds have won 5.

If we're talking probability, taking momentum into effect: the Reds have more of a chance to not finish in last place than the Padres have to finish in first. Bold but probable.

Also, this Reds team seems to be starting to find its footing. Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker are graduating to starting lineup spots, Eugenio Suarez is running the team in the absence of Joey Votto's average, Sonny Gray's ERA has dipped under 4 again, all the starters have 50+ strikeouts and lower than 5.00 ERAs (which is a tough thing to request the Reds' rotation), and Amir Garrett has become one of the most lethal relievers in baseball.

Good things happening to this Reds team isn't quite a foregone conclusion, but they are still one of the more promising last place teams in the leagues right now.

Coming Tonight: [begins to strum the opening chords of Lisa Loeb's 'Stay (I Missed You)']

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